BEARISH CONTINUATION FOR DXYBearish Bias for CAPITALCOM:DXY
Weekly context:
The last up-move failed to print a new weekly high. Failing to create a shift in structure , so rallies are suspect.
4H structure:
We had a hard bearish displacement (large down candles) that erased prior price action and kept going without delivering a “full” rebalance. That usually means the price target remains lower .
The key zones on chart
Breaker / sell zone: \~ 97.45–97.75 (teal box). This is the prior bullish OB that failed (now acting as resistance).
Line in the sand: \~ 97.35–97.40 (dashed line through the teal). A decisive 4H close below here signals continuation.
Upside cap / invalidation area: 98.12 (cyan line) up to \~ 98.20 . Above this, the bearish sentiment weakens.
Primary downside draw: 96.478 (orange line). That’s the next obvious liquidity/inefficiency magnet on your chart.
Trade plan
Idea A — Rejection short from the breaker (preferred):
Entry: look for a rejection setup inside 97.45–97.75 (e.g., 15m/1h bearish shift after a sweep).
Stop: above the breaker and the cyan line ⇒ 98.12 (conservative) or 98.20 (safer).
Targets:
T1: 96.84 (take partials; pay yourself)
T2: 96.47.00
Idea B — Continuation after the break (confirmation play):
Trigger: a 4H close below \~97.35 .
Entry: sell the first clean pullback into 97.35–97.45 .
Stop: above 97.85–98.00 (back inside the breaker); conservative stop 98.12 .
Target: 96.478
Management & invalidation
If price rebalances deeper and closes 4H above 98.12–98.20 , the breaker is failing. Flatten shorts; reassess (potential squeeze toward 98.60–99.00 is then on deck).
If price hesitates at 97.00 , trail above the last 1H swing high to protect realized PnL while aiming for 96.478 .
News risk: Your chart flags upcoming US data (icons). Expect wicks; use hard stops and consider sizing down around releases.
Why this makes sense
* The strong displacement leg sets the draw lower.
* The teal box is a bearish breaker created by a failed bullish structure—ideal for “sell on rally.”
* The market rebalanced the prior up-close leg already; the lack of a symmetrical rebalance on the down-leg favors continuation to the next target ( 96.478 ).
One-liner: Bearish while 4H stays under 98.12 ; sell rallies into 97.45–97.75 or sell a 4H close-and-pullback below 97.35 ; scale out 97.20 → 97.00 → 96.80 → 96.478 ; hard stop above 98.12–98.20 .
*Not financial advice. Size appropriately and stick to your stop.*
PLEASE PUA!
