US100 possible next set up. will see what price does during asia session.
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US100 possible next set up. will see what price does during asia session.
NAS100USD tradingview.com/x/sZkazyXL/Maybe something like this from here. Depends whether London takes us to upper or lower liquidity. I would imagine Asian sessions accumulate upward generating liquidity. London session could tap the NY session close or high if it manipulates down. But I would think it will manipulate upward and grab the the liquidity on these near equal highs on both the NQ and the ES as well as building liquidity within the thin structure above with the bearish fair value gap. It seems likely that the NY session will sweep the London high and sell from there out of the that range since it's full of shorts waiting to enter. There is no doubt about that.
In the longer term over the next week. The road higher will not just break straight to ATHs. This will be a process. Probably taking the next couple weeks. Probably straight into FOMC in December.
I say ATH again, because again, we have thin structure above. We are going to go correct that imbalance in the auction. Tomorrow, the next day, Friday, Monday. Whichever, but its going to tap that zone. Probably sooner than later since we closed today as a bull hammer. That will leave a long stack of demand/buy orders up underneath it again. And when price does reject out of that zone, the point of control will almost certainly have moved higher. Meaning that rejection is likely to reject fairly shallow and return above since it will be tapping into the demand zones being built through the ongoing price action yesterday and today.
This is still the play for a new ATH as far as I am concerned. Which seems likely around mid to late December for the rate cuts. Then she dumps for the tax sell off. We dip probably back down into these current ranges and then bounce in Q1 of 26'
I was convinced for a couple of days that the bears had pulled it off. But the response off the 24k line tells me we have more business to be done at higher prices and it's got the fuel to get there now after trapping god knows how many late money bears at the NVDA sell off last week.
This of course could be invalidated anytime. But I've learned as a trader, I do my best when I read the price like its telling a story. When I do that, I understand how it would make sense for it to behave. That way when it doesn't make sense, I know to sit out because I don't understand it. When it does make sense, I can trust my trades with certainty.
US100 Something about always consider the daily candle you are buying or selling into comes to mind today. Sure you could short now and tomorrow could be a bearish engulfing day back to 24,000. How is what could possibly happen a reliable trading strategy based on nothing but hoping the trade you take will win because it could?
What we have is a gap fill of Oct 10 low with a strong buying rejection off that low.
Personally I would prefer the next short to be from an ATH, but that may or may not happen. As of now I will happily miss shorts from here in favor of not holding a short to 26k or higher from here. If you miss the short from here to 23k, so what? You then get to catch the long from 23k. You do not always have to open a position. If the idea of missing the next short bothers you, you are trading off of emotion. Sometimes you have to miss market moves to have a better understanding for your strategy to take the next trade after that move happens. That is the nature of not knowing the future.
Waiting for price to be in important entry spots goes a really long way to reduce the amount of drawdown you experience in losing trades. It is a fact that if you short a new ATH it will have less drawdown than a short from here no matter how high it goes. A short from here will always have at least 1200 more points of drawdown. Not good.
We have the perfect setup to expect at least a near equal high to ATH if not a new ATH. Can that change fast? Yes it certainly can. We opened above the POC, dropped down to it, and now bounced back into a green daily candle.
The best trades come when you understand the asset from a daily timeframe perspective and where it is at relative to the daily. You cannot just take longs or shorts every single day off low timeframe setups regardless of where price is. That is how you end up in huge losing trades and being completely confused about why it happened.
NAS100 the 16:00 bearish volume spike. might've just confirmed my earlier hypothesis. in no way is this trading advice!!! for people that dont get that. its observations! follow your own plan!
NAS100 best way to trade the nas100 is wait for market open and see the direction then enter and let it ride. fail come back tomorrow
NAS100USD I am really going totally crazy in front of my desk. Why is it so hard to not close trades as soon as I am in profit, but on the other hand I was holding longs from 25100 down until 24000 where I panic sold with a 39k loss. Its insane. As soon as I am in 1-2k profit I cant resist but to close my position. Today I took like 4 trades and closed them all with slight profit instead of riding the full wave. Missed out on a lot.NDX And again I listened to the bears and closed my position at 25000 because "thats the top where the real waterfall downwards will start". yeah sure, I just lost 60 points. Man at this point really fck chart analysisNAS100USD I'm just going to say this again for the chat but...interest rate cut in December. This isn't bullshit. It's math.Labor market down = Rate cut
Rate cut = Risk on
Risk on = Dollar down
Dollar down = Assets denominated in the dollar up
Dollar down also = Money rotation into tech / AI / Crypto
Tech and AI are the core of our economy. You almost mathematically cannot input a lower dollar value which you will get with rate cuts and get a lower NQ or ES.
If we don't get the rate cut, this will dump. We almost certainly will get the rate cut because of the labor market.
NAS100 Waiting for Rejection . Logic is simple (H1 & M15 Order blocks) On H4 still bearish
NDX Man I why did I listen the bears on this forum today. All that talking about bearish channels, downtrend, lines on the chart, fvg, 24000, 22000. haha