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SA40 trade ideas

3 Types of Trades – HPT – MPT and NTTrading isn’t just about luck. Trading isn’t just about strategy. Trading is about stats and probabilities and know how to execute with the right money management. Also, here is a surprise. Not all setups are created equal. There are three types of trades with trading. Whether you’re trading Dow Futures, EUR/USD or Gold – the setups can come in one of three ways. HIGH Probability Trade (HPT) This type of trade is your bread and butter.It’s when the market conditions match your system’s criteria perfectly. It’s where you get a full on 5/5 check markets all around. And everything screams (J.T..TT – Just Take The Trade!) For me a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE is when I see the following with a long (buy). Previous trend is up. Breakout pattern has formed Price has broken above the pattern and opened above The price is above BOTH the 20MA and the 200MA. There is a strong uptrend to follow Damn! That’s perfect and that’s where I risk 1% to 2% of my portfolio. But why is it high probability? Because your trading system, which you’ve backtested and trusted, shows a high success rate in these conditions. HIGH PROBABILITY MEANS – You know the chances of success and winning are high.Moving on… MEDIUM Probability Trade (MPT) The market almost lines up with your system. It’s close but not perfect. This is where the likelihood is still HIGH but not as high as a HPT. This is where your indicators could be mixed or some of your criteria aren’t fully met. Yet, you still see potential and you will still risk (less) with your trade. This is where a bit of trader’s intuition and experience come into play. You decide to take the trade but with a twist.You risk a little less. For me a MEDIUM PROBABILITY TRADE is when I see the following with a long (buy). Previous trend is sideways . Breakout pattern has formed Price has broken above the pattern and opened above The price is above 20MA but below the 200MA. There is a strong uptrend to follow. Not great but willing to risk 0.5%. LOW Probability Trade (NO Trade) NT You want the perfect or almost perfect line up when you trade. And if the criteria do not line up – it should be a NO show. The best decision? Stay out.No trade means no risk. No trade means – stay neutral. For me a LOW PROBABILITY TRADE is when I see the following with a long (buy). Previous trend is sideways . Breakout pattern has sizzled Price remains in the pattern and hasn’t crossed yet. The price is above 20MA but below the 200MA. There is a strong uptrend to follow. FINAL WORDS: You need to identify when a trade looks GREAT, GOOD and BAD. You need to know when to take a trade and what to risk during the times. HIGH probability trade (Just Take The Trade!) – Market lined up perfectly according to the system and can risk 1% – 2%. MEDIUM probability trade (Trade but with less risk) – Market almost lined up perfectly but I will still take the trade and risk 0.5%. LOW probability trade (NO trade) – Market did NOT line up and therefore I’m not taking a trade.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Bruce Lee’s Way of Thinking Like a TraderIt’s better to have 9 years of experience trading 1 strategy than 1 year of trading experience for 9 systems.~ Timon Rossolimos inspired by Bruce Lee. Ever heard the saying… “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times”? That’s Bruce Lee, the martial artist legend, and philosopher, dropping some timeless wisdom. His principles can apply to your life, business and of course trading. Let’s get into how Bruce Lee’s way of thinking can help you as a trader. “Absorb What is Useful, Discard What is Not, Add What is Uniquely Your Own” Bruce Lee was all about simplicity and efficiency. He believed in cutting through the noise to find what truly works. The same goes for trading. When you start, you’re bombarded with endless strategies. Day trading, swing trading, scalping, position trading… You’re bombarded by different markets Forex i.e. EUR/USD, Commodities like Gold, Crypto i.e. Ethereum price, Indices i.e. Dow Futures But here’s the kicker (no pun intended) Not all strategies are needed nor will they work with you. The key is to absorb what works and discard what doesn’t. Take it what works for your trading personality and risk profile – and leave alone the rest. Make it unique – Make it your own. Customize it, tweak it, and master it. “The Successful Warrior is the Average Man, with Laser-like Focus” Trading isn’t about being a genius. It’s about having focus. Bruce Lee knew that extraordinary success comes from ordinary people who have an extraordinary level of focus and dedication. Have you seen his one-inch punch that pushed the hell out of the guy onto the chair? That is PURE focus. As a trader, this means you need to: Focus on your strategy Focus on your execution. Focus on mastering your mind. Focus on each trade that lines up. Imagine spending nine years refining a single trading strategy. Think about the depth of understanding you’d achieve, the nuances you’d master, and the pitfalls you’d avoid. This deep focus transforms you from an average trader into a successful warrior of the financial markets. “Knowing is Not Enough, We Must Apply. Willing is Not Enough, We Must Do” Knowledge alone won’t make you a successful trader. You must apply what you learn. Do you think Bruce Lee read books and then became a master martial artist? NO! He practiced hours a day every day and integrated it HIGHLY into his life. You can read all the trading books, attend seminars, and follow market news, but unless you apply that knowledge, it’s all for naught. Without action, they are just ideas. Trading is about execution. It’s about taking that well-honed strategy and putting it into action. Backtest it, forward test it, and refine it through real-world experience. It’s the doing that separates successful traders from perpetual learners. “ Mistakes are Always Forgivable, if One Has the Courage to Admit Them” Mistakes are part of the journey. Bruce Lee understood that failure is not the opposite of success; it’s a part of it. In trading, you’re going to make mistakes. You’ll face losses (what I call data points). You will make poor decisions (at times) – To err is human. And you will encounter unexpected market movements. Take it ALL… FINAL WORDS: Bruce Lee’s wisdom transcends martial arts, offering valuable insights for traders. This has definitely been one of my favourite articles to write. I hope Bruce Lee’s wisdom and information will continue to linger and spread throughout for the countless generations to come. One more thing… Trading isn’t about being the jack-of-all-trades. It’s about being the master of one. So, channel your inner Bruce Lee and commit to the path of mastery. Let’s sum up the powerful Bruce Lee quotes that we covered in this article: “Absorb What is Useful, Discard What is Not, Add What is Uniquely Your Own” “The Successful Warrior is the Average Man, with Laser-like Focus” “Knowing is Not Enough, We Must Apply. Willing is Not Enough, We Must Do” “Mistakes are Always Forgivable, if One Has the Courage to Admit Them”
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
HOW TO Master Algo Trading: Essential Skills for Modern Trading🤖 Algo trading isn’t just about letting robots do the heavy lifting. It’s also not letting a machine take over your trading. Algo trading uses computer programs to help you to automate buying and selling in financial markets based on set rules. So if you have a mechanical system with a track record, you’re on your way of becoming an algo trader. BUT… There are always ways to improve your trading and there are elements you can use to become a more proficient algo trader. Let’s get into them. 🔢 Element #1: Experience with Database Management and Data Analysis Data is your best friend when it comes to algo trading. You need to know the trading game plan before you take your first trade. It’s like building your city with an end goal. You need a map, you need the tools, you need a worst-case scenario plan etc… Data analysis, on the other hand, allows you to extract meaningful insights from this data. You need to know how back, forward and real test your system, strategy and results. The more data you have, the more significant edge you’ll have over those who rely on gut feeling alone. 📊 Element #2: Knowledge of Statistical Analysis Statistical analysis and machine learning are the backbone of successful algo trading. They empower you to create models that predict market movements and optimize trading strategies. This is where your important rules, criteria and decisions come. E.g. When do you halt trading after a drawdown. When do you consider a medium and high probability trade. When do you consider a medium to high probability day. What do you consider high, medium and low probability markets. Do you know how to handle Pre-market movers? Remember, markets are influenced by countless factors, and understanding these relationships requires robust statistical tools. 💹 Element #3: Understand Financial Markets and Trading Strategies While technology drives algo trading, understanding the financial markets is crucial. You need to grasp how different markets operate, from stocks, indices, commodities and Forex with their unique characteristics of each. Each market has it’s own personality and demeanor. For example, for the life of me my system does NOT work with the EUR/USD – The most popular currency of all time. And I’ve accepted that. Without this understanding, you might as well be throwing darts at a board while blindfolded. 🕵️ Element #4: Strong Analytical and Problem-Solving Skills Markets are unpredictable. They are also random and uncertain. They throw curveballs when you least expect them. Your winning streaks can last longer than you think. But so can your drawdowns. And that period where the market moves sideways, can make a trader go crazy. That’s why strong analytical and problem-solving skills are vital. When an algorithm isn’t performing as expected, you need to diagnose the issue swiftly and effectively. Think of it like being a detective in the trading world. You need to analyze patterns, identify anomalies, and adjust your strategies to stay on top. This requires a sharp, analytical mind and a knack for solving complex problems under pressure. 🧠 Element #5: Attention to Detail and Ability to Work Under Pressure In algo trading, the devil is in the details. One small error in your system can lead to significant financial losses. One wrong parameter in your moving average or indicator, and it could determine a failed strategy. Therefore, meticulous attention to detail is non-negotiable. And you need to adapt like a robot because trading is definitely working under pressure. This is a skill that we are NOT born with but one must learn through sheer will and hard experience. Financial markets operate at lightning speed, and decisions often need to be made in real-time. The ability to stay calm and focused in such an environment can make or break your trading success. Final words: Mastering algo trading requires a blend of technical skills, market knowledge, and the right tools. Let’s sum up what it is and what you need to master the skills. Algo trading, or algorithmic trading, involves using computer algorithms to automate trading decisions based on predefined criteria and market data analysis. It aims to execute trades at optimal speeds and prices, leveraging technology to minimize human error and emotional bias. The skills you need to master are: Element #1: Experience with Database Management and Data Analysis Element #2: Knowledge of Statistical Analysis Element #3: Understand Financial Markets and Trading Strategies Element #4: Strong Analytical and Problem-Solving Skills Element #5: Attention to Detail and Ability to Work Under Pressure
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
Why You Must NOT Multi-Task When Trading – 4 ReasonsWhy You Must NOT Multi-Task When Trading We are taught to multi-task through life. To be a jack of all trades. With trading, it’s a golden rule to NOT multi task. Your focus diminishes. Your productivity slows down. And your confusion goes up. So we need to instead focus on ONE thing at a time. Here’s why… 🔍 #1: You Miss Crucial Opportunities Picture this: you’re juggling several tasks at once. You’re looking at hundreds of markets. You’re monitoring all the news events. Your charts look like a Christmas treed. You’re looking at social media and emails. And then what happens? You miss the important trade line ups. A slight delay in executing a trade can mean the difference between a profit and a loss. You see, when you multi-task – your attention is divided. And great opportunities can slip right through your fingers. Stay focused. Stay vigilant. That one trade might be your ticket to your next winning streak. ⏱️#2: There Are Delays in Trading Decision Making Speed is of the essence in trading. The markets move fast, and so should you. But when you’re multi-tasking, your decision-making process slows down. You find yourself second-guessing every move, doubting your strategies, and hesitating just when you need to act. This delay can be costly. A missed opportunity, a wrong move, or a delayed reaction can lead to nothing happening when it should. 😵‍💫 #3: Your Stress Levels Are High Trading alone is stressful. The constant flux of the market, the pressure to make the right decisions, and the potential financial stakes are enough to keep anyone on edge. Now, add multi-tasking to the mix, and you’re looking at a recipe for burnout. Your brain is not wired to handle multiple complex tasks simultaneously. This overload increases your stress levels, affecting your mental clarity and emotional stability. Lower your stress and focus on one task at a time. Your mind will thank you, and your trading performance will improve. 🎯 #4: You Make More Mistakes – You Need Laser Focus! I’ve professed the idea of LASER your trades. Look, Analyse, Setup, Execute and Record. Focus on one part of your trading at a time and you’ll see better performance. ✅ Summary of Key Points: #1: You Miss Crucial Opportunities #2: There Are Delays in Trading Decision Making #3: Your Stress Levels Are High #4: You Make More Mistakes – You Need Laser Focus!
VELOCITY:J40Education
by Timonrosso
Set a Trading TIMER – Mr or Mrs Busy!Hey, Mr. or Mrs. busy! I get it. Finding time to trade in this busy life, is tough. But as I like to say. If you have time to have coffee, go to the bathroom or binge Netflix – you have time to build your financial career. However, if you find it difficult to be disciplined with your trading. Thern I have a simple trick for you. 🕒SET A TIMER! Yes, you read it right. Set a TIMER! If you’ve got just 15 minutes or up to one hour, make it count. Let’s dive into how you can master the timer when you trade. 💡REASON #1: Remember Parkinson’s Law Ever heard of Parkinson’s Law? It states that work expands to fill the time available for its completion. In simpler terms, if you give yourself all day to analyze trades, you’ll take all day. But if you limit yourself to an hour, you’ll focus and give all the attention in just one hour. You’ll be surprised how much you can achieve. You see, when you set a timer – it creates a sense of urgency. And it helps ensure you stay on task and get the job done. 🎯REASON #2: The Power of Focused Trading When the timer is ticking, distractions don’t stand a chance. You’ll notice your brain kicks into high gear, almost with adrenaline. And you’ll be able to prioritise the tasks and filter out the noise. This focused trading approach will help you make quick, effective decisions. That’s the power of a ticking clock. 📝HOW TO Craft Your Perfect 15 Minutes Trading Plan Alright, let’s break it down. How should you structure this golden hour of trading? 5 Minutes: Market Analysis – Start by analyzing the market. Choose the one watch list and go through it attentively. 5 Minutes: Strategy line-up – Prepare your trades This is where you’ll go through your watch list again – but set up your potential trades lining up according to your strategy. This is where you’ll jot down your levels (Entry, Stop loss and take profit). Maybe you’ll write down some notes on why it lined up and whether it’s a high or medium probability trade. 5 Minutes: Execution – Just take the trades Now if three or four trades have lined up. Calculate your position sizes and execute your trades that line up perfectly to the strategy. That’s it… Now obviously, if you’re following a trading mentor’s style, trades etc… You’ll need less time. But you’ll need a strategy to follow whenever a trading idea comes out including: Having your trading platform opened on your devices Having your position sizes calculated already according to what your portfolio is Knowing when to expect trades by going to the charts and preparing for the day as you’ll have an idea on what your mentor is showing you. 🏋️NEXT: Staying Disciplined with Your Trading Timer The hardest part? Sticking to the timer. When it says start, you start. When it says stop, you stop. If you need more time than 15 minutes – then CHOOSE the time that works best. This habit builds consistency and prevents burnout. It’s tempting to extend your trading time, especially when you’re in the zone. But discipline is key. At the start you might need the timer for the first few weeks. But then the motivation turns into discipline. And when the discipline turns into integration – you’ll be able to trade without the timer and without any effort. 🚀 It’s more than just a trading timer Setting a timer doesn’t just help with trading. It helps you with other areas of life. You’ll find yourself more organized, efficient, and in control. Whether it’s a work project or a personal task, this technique can transform your productivity. Plus, it teaches you to value your time—a priceless lesson in today’s fast-paced world. 🏆FINAL WORDS: Make Every Minute Count So, next time you’re about to trade, set that trading timer. Think of FED – Focus, efficiency, and discipline are your new best friends. Let’s sum up what we covered today. SET A TIMER! REASON #1: Remember Parkinson’s Law REASON #2: The Power of Focused Trading HOW TO Craft Your Perfect 15 Minutes Trading Plan NEXT: Staying Disciplined with Your Trading Timer It’s more than just a trading timer
VELOCITY:J40Education
by Timonrosso
The Complete Guide to Stop Trading Procrastination – 8 Actions👋 Hey Ever found yourself staring at your trading platform? Your finger can either be 1 mm away from the buy button… Or feel like it’s the distance of the Great Wall of China. And you’re still not pressing it. 🎉 Welcome to the Procrastinator’s Club! Don’t worry—you’re not alone. Many traders struggle with procrastination. The good news? It’s totally beatable. Let’s dive into why we procrastinate and, more importantly, how to crush it and become the trader you’ve always wanted to be. ❓ Why Do We Procrastinate? 🤔 Doubt Your Trades? Doubt is a confidence killer. You’re doubting yourself. Your system. The markets. Even trading as a whole. This leads to hesitation… and missed opportunities. 🗓️ Skip a Trading Day? Skipping even one trading day can cost you. Markets don’t wait. If you’re not in the game—you can’t score. Even checking from your phone could make all the difference! 📉 Don’t Monitor Your Results? If you’re not tracking, you’re guessing. Are you improving? Is the market environment helping or hurting you? Without tracking, you’re flying blind. 💥 6 Ways to Beat Trading Procrastination ✅ #1: Choose Your Trading Days Pick 3–4 specific days to focus on trading. Avoid unfavourable times (like low volatility Mondays or dead hours in Gold). Structure = consistency = confidence. 📋 #2: Set Smaller Tasks Break your workload into bite-size pieces. One day: analyse EUR/USD. Next day: track performance. Next day: update journal. Small wins add up! 📊 #3: Track Results on a Specific Day Pick a review day weekly. Don’t obsess daily. Your portfolio’s like your weight—it’ll fluctuate! Track over time, not minute-by-minute ⏱️ #4: Set a Timer Got 1 hour? Or just 15 minutes? Set a timer, remove distractions, and lock in. Even a focused short session can yield powerful results. 🧠 #5: Self-Talk Talk yourself into trading—not out of it. “I’ve got this.” “I know my system.” “I’m the boss.” Say it. Mean it. Do it. 🎁 #6: Reward Yourself Win or lose—if you followed your strategy, celebrate. A treat. A break. Something fun. This builds discipline + motivation. 🏁 Final Words Procrastination is a habit. But so is discipline. You now have a toolkit. So… When are you taking action? Tomorrow? That’s procrastination. Today? That’s progress. Start small. Just start. 🔥 How to Stop Procrastinating: Remove distractions Positive self-talk Reward yourself 👉 Your future trader-self is already thanking you.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
SA40: Correction expected before a buyHello, In march we did an article about this pair and indicated that the index was overstretched and a correction was imminent. Link The correction happened and the price has since reached all time highs once again. We see this as a perfect opportunity for investors who invested during the correction to take profit since another correction is most likely in the near term. Market uncertainty is being fueled by concerns over U.S. trade policy, as there is very scanty information on agreed trade agreements. Investors fear these tariffs could slow economic growth in the world's largest economy. However, Trump has suggested a softer approach, stating that not all threatened tariffs would be imposed immediately and some countries have received exemptions. Given the current uncertainty, we anticipate a further correction in the SA40. Investors considering exposure to this asset may wait for the correction to play out before entering a long-term buy position. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:SA40
by thesharkke
South Africa Top 40 Index (SA40) Overview and Market OutlookHello, The South Africa Top 40 Index (SA40), also known as the JSE Top 40 Index, is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)—Africa’s largest stock exchange. Despite covering a relatively small number of companies, the index represents over 80% of the total market capitalization of JSE-listed firms, making it a strong indicator of the overall performance of the South African stock market. Market Update & Outlook While the SA40 remains a key benchmark, it has faced recent price struggles as investors react to global economic developments. Market uncertainty has been fueled by concerns over U.S. trade policy, particularly expectations surrounding President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans. Investors fear these tariffs could slow economic growth in the world's largest economy. However, Trump recently suggested a softer approach, stating that not all threatened tariffs would be imposed immediately and that some countries may receive exemptions. Investment Strategy Given the current uncertainty, we anticipate a further correction in the SA40. Investors considering exposure to this asset may opt for a small short position in the near term or wait for the correction to play out before entering a long-term buy position. Careful risk management and market monitoring remain crucial in navigating this evolving landscape. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:SA40
by thesharkke
DISASTER Recipe for trading destruction (5 Points)🏊‍♂️ Do You Ever Try Swimming Upstream? Unless you’re doing it for exercise and the strain… You’ll know it’s exhausting. And if you go against the direction of the waves, you’ll get nowhere very slowly—until you either reach the destination or give up. Well, I find that trading against the trend is just as bad. When you trade against the trend – your EGO starts to talk. Your opinions start to enhance, and your irrational mind begins to take over. I feel I need to explain why it’s so dangerous to go against the trend. Let’s dive in. 🚫 Never Force a Trend The worst thing you can do is bottom or top pick a market. What makes you feel that you know the market is about to turn? ❓ Do you have inside information? ❓ Do you have a stronger intuition? ❓ Did you do some crazy future analysis? And what’s the point? Let the market reach its bottom or top, turn around – move a bit in the new direction until you have confirmation. And then POUNCE. You only need 30% of the trend and then close for a profit. ⏳ Patience Pays Off The market moves in cycles. 📈 Sometimes it’s a roaring bull. 📉 Other times it’s a sulking bear. 🐢 And other times, it’s a bladdy tortoise – going sideways to Timbuktu. The best thing to do is wait for the market to move from an unfavourable environment into a favourable time for your system and strategy. 🔄 Reassess and wait. There’s no rush in trading. 🔄 Adjust and Act The markets are always evolving. You need to continuously adapt and act on: 📌 New markets to add 📌 Old markets to rid of 📌 Strategy tweaks to improve your win rate 📌 System considerations to boost winners and cut losses Flexibility within your trading strategy is key. 🌊 Flow with Momentum Ever noticed how surfers ride waves? They don’t fight the ocean; they flow with it. Traders should do the same with market momentum. 📈 When the market is going up – Go up with it. 📉 When the market is going down – Go down with it. (I mean short and sell, of course!) ➡️ When the market is moving sideways – Observe, report, and wait for better conditions. Align your trades with the sentiment. Going against the current market mood can be disastrous. ❌ Never Predict Everything you see in the charts and fundamentals is based on past data. So, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to predict with certainty where a market will go. This is why you need risk management rules and stop losses with EVERY trade. You can’t predict, BUT you can probability predict. And that’s the difference between knowing and potential. 🎯 Recap: Trade Smart! 📌 Never Force a Trend: Be patient and wait for the right market conditions. 📌 Patience Pays Off: Let the market cycle play out before jumping in. 📌 Adjust and Act: Regularly review and tweak your strategy with new information. 📌 Flow with Momentum: Align your trades with the current market sentiment. 📌 Never Predict: React to market conditions rather than trying to predict them. 💡 Remember: The best traders ride the waves – not fight them.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
The JSE Top40 Medium-Term ViewThe JSE Top40 is at a point of a relief rally though the bigger picture is that of a yearly decline. So the expectation is that we can rally while expecting price to be capped by the black trendline, we either make it there or we turn down before reaching this point. Longer term I expect price to trend towards the green support line. Since we must breach this line, My interest will be on the grey horizontal line for support. A t the back of my mind is the COVID drop scenario, this is where we get extreme moves downwards representing a continuation of current cycle, otherwise without that scenario we would have a tough quarter one and two of 2025. We have been in recession like conditions and so far, we could be going through a silent recession whereby conditions point that way but the economic measures do not confirm, does not help that US being leader in market sentiment has had war excursions to affect the indicators as well as constant revisions of the unemployment figures. The coming of Trump might cause war spend to decrease unraveling the dire state of the economy. It is best for traders to be aware of such a scenario and effect on the markets.
JSE:J200
by runyamhere
The JSE Top40 Paints a Grim Few Weeks AheadThe JSE Top40 powered above 2 key resistance lines but it quickly reversed course, we call this a false breakout (FBO), such failures usually move violently to the lower side. On the weekly perspective, the share is in week 31 so we are likely going lower than the lower pink support. After the pink support fails, we turn can see the green arrow was lower than the black, from historical cycle perspective, the JSE Top40 will set the shortest yearly cycle if current price does not go lower than the green arrow. This is something I place at a smaller probability, hold on for a bumpy ride. Relief will come at the weekly low which will create gains sufficient for long positions.
JSE:J200Short
by runyamhere
SA40 Bullish Outlook Good morning, The J200 looks bullish on the H1 chart, but it is within a consolidation area, so some caution regarding momentum behaviour is needed. The price has two significant resistance levels: 77302 and one within a resistance zone at 78148.95. There is also an ABC pattern that does not align well with my Elliott Wave count, suggesting that there might be an even lower C. This means that the support level is in question due to the break of the trend line; there is an argument around that. If a bearish candle breaks the support line, the current C level of 75488.39 would need to be broken to invalidate the setup. Overall, there are bullish interests here, targeting highs of 79533.16. Happy Trading, K. Not trading advice.
JSE:J200Long
by Khiwe