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SA40 trade ideas

Shape your future with 7 Trading ChoicesAs you traverse the journey of trading. There are a couple of choices you’ll need to make. Not your spouse, not your kids, not your dog, not your neighbour. You… Every day you hold that bit of power that will shape your unique trading path. Remember, every action we take is a conscious choice. Where we say YES to one endeavour automatically entails saying NO to another. If you did economics, you would know it’s called an opportunity cost. Therefore, it is crucial that you need to say YES and make choice with whatever action is necessary to pave your successful future. Let’s go through some of the choices you need to make. Choice #1: Do you just take the trade? To Trade or Not to Trade, I call this the Hamlet Dilemma When the market lines up a juicy trade, you put your levels in and quantify your position. All that’s left is for you to press the button. If you’re hesitant, I want you to ask ONE thing. Is it a high probability trade or low? If it’s high. Count down 1, 2, 3. Just take the trade. Choice #2: The pick of the trading pops Go to a candy store, there are so many options of amazing candies. But you can’t take them all. You can’t taste them all either. You have to choose. Same with the markets. Thousands to choose from – which one do you pick? Here’s an idea. Choose a day in the week to trade a certain market. Monday stocks, Tuesday indices, Wednesday Forex, Thursday stocks. I don’t know. But condense the work and the watchlists and the markets so they’re BITE size to take and trade each week. Choice #3: Taming the Clock Time waits for no trader. Are you a day trader, where you want to open and close a trade within a day? Are you a swing trader swing trader where you catch and hold waves of market momentum over several days or weeks? Are you BOTH? Your lifestyle, trading experience, and market analysis skills can guide this decision. Tick-tock choose who you are on the clock! Choice #4: Techie or Traditionalist: Trading Platforms When you choose a trading and charting platform, it’s basically choosing a portion of your personality. It needs to suit your lifestyle and personality. You need to choose what colour backgrounds, indicators and chart layout you wish. You must want to enjoy what you see in the charts. You must find that they’re easy to work with and exactly what you need to trade with. Improve your trading skills, chart setups and become a savvy platform trader. Choice #5: Risk It All or Play It Safe: Money Management It’s the eternal trader’s tug-of-war. You get into a trade with the idea that you can lose money, or make money. And the sweet spot is what you need to decide what is best for your portfolio. Easy… Never risk more than 2% per trade. Never risk any money you can’t afford to lose. Play your trading safe in a way that you can preserve and protect your portfolio over the long haul. Choice #6: Trust gut or trust charts The big one is, what choice do you make when you decide to trade. Do you trust your gut or dive deep into data? While intuition can sometimes lead to lucky profitable outcomes. It’s not going to happen every time. It’s going to resemble gambling more than trading. And when you hit that losing streak and don’t have a solid trading system to trust and work on, it’s game over before you know it. The market doesn’t work on emotions. The market works on analytics, numbers, volume, demand and supply. So be like the market and you’ll stand a chance. Choice #7: Buy and Hold or Buy and Fold This one is the hardest choice of all. When you get into your trade. And it goes in your favour. Do you lock in profits by closing your trade, as you think it’s going to turn from here? Or do you adjust your stop loss, to protect your portfolio from taking any loss. Or do you just let your trade run according to your trading back-tested stats? Choice is yours. This also requires HIGH experience in trading. Because I still have to decide on these three choices every day when I’m in trades. Obviously, there are many other choices you need to make. But just remember. Everything you do is solely what you choose to drive you to the path of what you desire.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
How to Adapt to the Ever-Evolving Financial Markets – 4 WaysThe only constant with the financial markets is… Change The market is constantly changing in a way that it’s brining: New demand New supply New volume and fresh changes in the complex algorithms. If you want to thrive you need to learn to learn to adapt, evolve and grow with the markets. I want to cover four elements to today’s topic. The Inevitability of Market Change Change is not only constant but inevitable in financial markets. There will always be new elements streaming into the markets from: ~ Global and political events ~ Micro and macro aspects ~ Economic indicators ~ Regulatory shifts, and ~ Investor sentiment These elements are perpetually at work, shaping and reshaping the market. These catalysts can shift the trajectory of entire sectors, leading to volatile market movements. Influx of New Volume on Market Dynamics Every day, the market sees a deluge of new volume. There are new traders and investors constantly joining the financial markets world. And we are seeing an inflow of capital from retail traders, institutional investors, and high-frequency trading firms. The big institutions like Smart Money (banks, hedge funds, brokers etc…) are causing the big volatile moves in the market. The smaller guys – dumb money and retail traders – are also helping with liquidity in the markets. Every transaction is causing a shift in the market. No matter how small it’s the “Butterfly Effect of the financial market”. The Role of Algorithms in Market Evolution In the era of digital transformation, algorithms have become a pivotal part of the financial markets. Algorithmic trading or ‘algo-trading’ employs complex mathematical models to execute trades at lightning speed and frequency. I’m talking about Copy Trader, Robinhood, AI trading bots, EA Expert Advisors and pre-determined automatic mechanical trading methods. This practice is now an integral part of the trading landscape. And they will continue to have an influence in price action, and market patterns. Haven’t you noticed? In the 50s through to the early 2000’s. The markets trended on a more consistent basis. Any monkey could choose a list of good stocks and hold them until they were up 200% – 1000%. But nowadays with derivatives, algorithms, shorts and automatic execution – markets have never been more volatile and more difficult to ride the trends. Always Adapt to Thrive in Changing Markets It’s our job to learn to be more flexible and to adapt to these market conditions. As markets evolve, so must we evolve with them. We need to always: ~ Apply new markets to our watchlists ~ Look for better trading instruments ~ Change the trading strategy to make it more conducive with the environments ~ Always look for the next best broker, trading and charting platform ~ Look for ways to reduce costs and maximise profits. I’ll end off with this. The market is constantly changing, adapting and evolving. We need to embrace the change and not see it as a threat. Have this mentality and you’ll always have the opportunities to improve, anticipate and grow as a trader.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
5 Stupid Trading Advice PointsA staggering 98% of traders inevitably stumble and tumble into the abyss of financial loss. Why such a high failure rate, you ask? It’s because failed traders try to preach their failures (as they think that’s how it is). They develop these narcissistic methods, where they misguide others and are too blinded by their own failures. Few years later, they’re back in their parents basements playing games or working at Mc Donald’s. I want to share and explore five such stupid advice points that can send even the most promising trading careers down a spiral of regret and loss. Go big or go home – a fool’s motto for financial Russian roulette. In the world of high stakes and adrenaline rush, the mantra ‘Go big or go home’ might sound like a call to glory. It might sound like a quick way to riches. However, when you say this. You’re destined for a financial land mine eventually. Going ‘big’ in trading terms typically means putting a large chunk of your capital into one or a few trades. And yes, it might very well pay off in the short term. It may pay handsomely. But for how long until you blow your entire account? Smart trading advocates a balanced approach, including diversified portfolios and proper risk management techniques. It’s more about ‘Go steady and stay in the game’ than ‘Go big or go home’. The next trade will be better – as reliable as a fortune cookie’s prophecy. This is another common trap. They just took a loss and now they feel, the next trade will be a winner. Nope! This is a dangerous mindset which will lead you to ‘revenge trading.’ Trading is not a series of independent events. Your next trade is not guaranteed to be better simply because you lost the previous one. And we can NEVER predict with certainty which trade will win. You need to approach each trade objectively. Don’t let past performances cloud your judgment. Don’t let a false and fabricated future bring on trading destruction. Learn from past mistakes, certainly, but don’t bank on the next trade as a panacea for all previous losses. Follow your heart – Your heart pumps. Your brain thinks. Stop relying on emotions and gut feelings in a robotic, cold and ruthless market. Emotions can amplify the impact of market volatility. Emotions can make you overreact to market swings. Emotions can make you stick with losing trades for too long. Emotions can cut your profits far too soon. And you can blame evolution. Instinct often plays a role in decision-making. And you need to remember that… Successful trading absolutely needs a systematic, disciplined approach based on logic and solid analysis. Everything happens for a reason – the financial equivalent of seeing faces in clouds. OK this might comfort you in some esoteric aspects of your life. But you need to get rid of this notion with the markets. The financial market is complex and influenced by numerous variables (that have nothing to do with you). Get off your high horse and believe everything revolves around you! Not every price movement has a logical or predictable reason behind it. Instead, you should focus on understanding broader market trends, develop solid trading strategies, and manage your risk effectively. With logic, with discipline, with mathematics, with statistics – NOT WITH ESOTERIC REASONS! Work harder and you’ll win more – because nothing says ‘smart trading’ like turning a strategic marathon into a frenzied sprint. While hard work is essential with business and with most areas of your life. Trading is a game where quality trumps quantity. The ‘work harder and you’ll win more’ advice often leads traders to overtrade, mistakenly believing that a higher frequency of trades equates to higher returns. In trading, it’s more important to work smarter, not harder. In trading it’s more important to think quality, not quantity. In trading it’s more important to think high probability than any probability. It’s about making well-informed trades, not just more trades. So let’s sum up the stupid trading advice points you need to watch out for. Go big or go home – a fool’s motto for financial Russian roulette. The next trade will be better – as reliable as a fortune cookie’s prophecy. Follow your heart – Everything happens for a reason – the financial equivalent of seeing faces in clouds. Work harder and you’ll win more – because nothing says ‘smart trading’ like turning a strategic marathon into a frenzied sprint. If you can think of any more, let me know in the comments.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 Vuvuzela Formation - could break up!Hi guys, this could be a concern. JSE ALSI 40 has been forming a broadening pattern (Vuvuzela) since 12 April 2023. Now with these patterns, they can break any direction... If we make a higher low, the chance of the price breaking up is higher. Then we can expect the price to finally break up and out and head to 75,000 as the first target. As this is Monday, it will set the bar to where the market will be heading soon. We need to hold onto our hats as this can go south just as quickly as it went up last week. What do you think up or down this week?
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Become a Trading Machine - 11 ways!If you want to trade well and consistently. You have to be more mechanically orientated. The weekend is about to begin so I'll be literally quick and brief. Saying "literally" was unnecessary and made it longer. Sorry. Here are the pointers: 1. Stay committed 2. Cultivate patience 3. Avoid herd mentality 4. Be long-term oriented 5. Stop crying over losers 6. Review your performance 7. Stop celebrating winners 8. Adapt to market conditions 9. Keep your emotions in check 10. Don't think of quick success 11. Adapt and advance with technology
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
GLOSSARY Smart Money Concepts – Complete Terms!It’s taking the world by a storm. Smart Money Concepts is what has become famous lately. Now I’ve been trading for 20 years and even I have learnt to adapt and adjust SMC to my trading strategy. I guess we have to evolve and adapt with what there is. Anyways, today I’ve written a complete Glossary on Smart Money Concepts terms for you. Enjoy! SMART MONEY CONCEPTS GLOSSARY Break Of Structure (BOS) (CONTINUATION) A BOS is when the price breaks above or below, and continues in the direction of the trend. (CONTINUATION). Break Of Structure Down When the price breaks and closes BELOW the wick of the previous LOW in a DOWNTREND. Break Of Structure Up When the price breaks and closes ABOVE the wick of the previous HIGH in an UPTREND. Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS) Where an Order Block forms where Smart Money SELLS into retailers (dumb money) BUYING orders – Pushing the price DOWN. Change of Character (CHoCH) (REVERSAL) Refers to a much larger shift in the underlying market trend, dynamic or sentiment. This is where the price moves to the point where there is a change in the overall trend. (REVERSAL) Change of Character Down When the price breaks and closes below the previous uptrend. Change of Character Up When the price breaks and closes above the previous downtrend. Daily bias Tells us which direction, trend and environment the market is in and what we are looking to trade. Daily bias Bearish When the market environment is DOWN and the trend is DOWN – we look for shorts (sells) in the market. Daily bias Bullish When the market environment is UP and the trend is UP – we look for long positions (buys) in the market. Discount market <50% The market is at a discount when the price trades BELOW the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a discount (low price). Equilibrium Equilibrium is a state of the market where the demand and supply are in balance with the price. We say the price of the market is at fair value. Fair Value Gap (FVG) A 3 candle structure with an up or down impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Fair Value Gap Bearish A 3 candle structure with a DOWN impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to move back up to rebalance and fill the gap. Fair Value Gap Bullish A 3 candle structure with an UP impulse candle that indicates and creates an imbalance or an inefficiency in the market. Between candle 1 and 3, do NOT show common prices. The price needs to come back down to rebalance and fill the gap. Levels of liquidity The area of prices where smart money players, identify and choose to BUY or SELL large quantities. E.g. Supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, trend lines, volume, indicators, psychological levels. Liquidity The degree, rate and ability for an asset or security to be easily bought (flow in) or sold (flow out) in the market at a specific price. Liquidity sweep (Liquidity grab) Smart money buys or sells (and sweeps or grabs liquidity) from traders who enter, exit or get stopped. Market down structure When the price makes lower lows and lower highs. Market structure Indicates what a market is doing, which direction it’s in and where it is more likely to go. Market Structure Shift (MSS) MSS shows you when the price is breaking a structure or changing the direction in the market. Market up structure When the price makes higher lows and higher highs. Order block Large market orders (big block of orders) where smart money buys or sells from different levels of liquidity. Order Block Bearish A strong selling or a supply zone for smart money. Order Block Bullish A strong buying or a demand zone for smart money. Order block events Large market orders where smart money buys or sells from certain events i.e. High volume, supports, resistances, highs, lows, key levels, Break Of Structure, Change of Character, News or economic event. Point Of Interest (POI) POI is an area or level in the market where there is expected to be a large amount of buying or selling activity i.e. Order blocks. Premium market >50% The market is at a premium when the price trades ABOVE the equilibrium level. We say the price is at a premium (high price). Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS) Where an Order Block forms where the Smart Money BUYS into the retail (dumb money traders orders – Pushing the price UP. Smart Money These are the smart, informed, and savvy financial institutions that invest (buy and sell) their large capital into different financial markets. Smart Money Concepts SMC is a more sophisticated method of price action to spot, identify and locate where smart money is buying and selling their positions Sweep Buy Side Liquidity (Smart Money SELLS) Smart Money SELLS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from retail traders who are short (get stopped) and for long traders who buy and enter their trades. Sweep Sell Side Liquidity (Smart Money BUYS) Smart Money BUYS into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter their trades. Feel free to print this out and have it as a guide to your Smart Money Concepts trading journey. All the best!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
101
Where is this damn JSE going - I hope UP! - Here's why. Your guess is as good as mine. One day we are up another is down. One week is up, one month is sideways. This is NOT conducive for trending markets. This is NOT conducive for breakout traders. This is not conducive for momentum traders. So we need to wait for a breakout to have a better idea on where it wants to go. Right now I'm long 8 stocks and short 6 stocks on the JSE. So yes, hedging is crucial during these times. Also, one needs to hedge with Forex, indices maybe even international markets. It's the only way to have more control of our portfolios and to diversify markets better. So which way is it going. No matter what, I always prefer the market to move up. I prefer for the optimistic approach where companies are doing well, South Africa is doing well and investors are doing well. Even though I could be stopped with all shorts, I honestly don't care. I care about the wellbeing of the country and the JSE. I don't normally rant with analyses, but this is a clear example of where we as traders, have no idea where the market is likely to head.
TVC:SA40
by Timonrosso
2
Why Do So Many Successful Traders Gym?Have you noticed? That most successful traders, engage in some type of regular physical exercise. And on their social channels they are either talking on the treadmill or they’re talking about their supplements they’re taking before they hit the gym. And it makes you wonder. Is gymming a prerequisite to trade well and successfully? I mean, do we have to gym to trade well? Unfortunately, I do gym on a regular basis and do cardio many times a week. But no. I don’t think I’ll attribute it to my trading success. However, I think there are many merits to gymming well and trading well. And it all starts with… #1: Discipline – You Put in the Work Training in the gym is about discipline, perseverance, and gradual improvement. It’s about building strength, endurance, and resilience. These are definitely all qualities required in a successful trader. Traders, like athletes, understand that to achieve success, you must put in the work. There are no shortcuts. If you have the discipline to gym (not every day) every week, you will have what it takes to persevere as a trader. If you’re a quitter and a give upper or a I’ll do it next Monday type a guy or gal, then trading probably won’t work for you. The financial market doesn’t grant success to the lucky, but rather to the diligent and well-prepared. #2. Pick up the Portfolio (Weights) as You Make More In the same way that you wouldn’t expect to build muscle or increase your stamina overnight in the gym, you shouldn’t expect immediate trading success. And in the same way you don’t just lift heavier weights after a short period in the gym, so to where you mustn’t trade more (with a small portfolio size). Let’s dig deeper. In the gym, you start lifting weights that match your strength level. As you grow stronger, you gradually increase the weight to keep challenging your muscles. And this leads you to further growth and strength. This same principle applies to trading. Beginners should start with a smaller, manageable portfolio that matches their level of knowledge, understanding and personality with the markets. As their knowledge, skill, and confidence grow, they can start diversifying and increasing their portfolio. They won’t risk more (relative) per trade, but they will deposit more money into their portfolios. They’ll trade larger volumes. But like I said, they won’t risk more in percentage terms. Remember, it’s essential to increase the portfolio wisely, without skipping steps, just like in weight training. Patience and progressive overload are key in both fields. #3: Don’t Overtrain – Don’t Overtrade If you overtrain in the gym – watch out. It can lead to injuries, burnout, demotivation (is that a word?) and diminished returns. Same works with overtrading. It can lead to financial losses, emotional stress and a big punch to your confidence levels. You need to know the importance of balance and recovery – like you do as a trainer. You need to understand how to pace yourself the right way, and to: NOT take trades for the sake of it. NOT try to accelerate your portfolio performance. NOT be impatient with the process Got it? #4: It’s a Forever Process Fitness, strength, physical activity and maintaining your sexy figure is a lifelong endeavour. You can’t just build muscle and then stop working out, expecting to stay fit forever. You can’t just go on the treadmill once and lose those 20kg you packed on 10 years ago. Same with trading. You can’t just make a few successful trades and then rest on your laurels. The markets are always changing, and traders need to keep learning and adapting their strategies to stay ahead. This requires continuity Trading requires perseverance Trading requires repetition Continuous education Ongoing testing, tweaking and monitoring And while we’re at it, gymming can help with your trading I mean, I’m no doctor, but there are also very good mental benefits of regular exercise, such as: Improved concentration Better mood Stress reduction Help maintain the psychological equilibrium needed for long-term trading success Also, it gets you to step away from the computer and screen after you’ve taken a trade. It allows you to realign and escape from the real world and into your mind and creative self. Even though you don’t necessarily need to gym to be a successful trader. The parallels between gym training and trading are substantial. The discipline, resilience, patience, and commitment to continual learning that the gym fosters translate directly into trading habits. Do you gym or do any physical exercises?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
JSE Top 40 IndexAn extract from my pre-market report. The annotation from the slide are excluded. To gain access, get in touch today. "Analyst Comment: We have seen a continuation of the medium term downward trend following Wednesday morning's pre-market data highlighting the index trading in a ultra short term high bullish momentum regime but likely to be sold off as it approached the upper boundary of the 21-day linear regression channel (see circled image). Over the two sessions we saw seen the index being sold off aggressively to the tune of 2074 points or -2.9%. Now trading at the mean of the 21-day linear regression channel."
JSE:J200
by techpers
WHY you don't JUST Take The TradeIn the frenzied world of financial trading. It gets to a stage eventually where we will hesitate to take the trade. Even though you have the plan, strategy and mindset to a T. Something could trigger you to not take the trade. So why does this happen? There are a multitude of reasons, but here are four reasons you might not take the trade. Reason #1: Market Moved Too Much Even I miss the mark sometimes. Either I get distracted by writing something for you. Either I wake up late past 10 am. Either I am flying or at the beach. And then… The market moves too much and I miss the trade. This is life and this can catch us off guard. There is no excuse in the bigger scheme of things because the market will move with or without you. Just like time waits for no man. Neither does the market. We need to be more disciplined, more determined and should be like a sniper when it comes to trading the markets. Reason #2: You’re Scared to Lose This one applies to three types of traders. Either you’re new to the market and don’t want to lose money. Or you’ve been in the market and you just can’t programme your mind to lose money. Or you have already lost money and you have an even bigger fear of losing even more money. Trading, by its very nature, involves risks. But sometimes, the fear of potential losses can overwhelm us, leading to indecision and missed opportunities. Emotional trading is a surefire way to erratic decision-making and inconsistent results. So if you’re scared to lose, risk less. If you’re scared to lose, paper trade until you feel more confident. If you’re scared to lose, work on risk psychology through journals and reading. Or just reading an article like this. It may help you. Reason #3: Too Much Money to Spend Some markets are expensive! If you’re new to trading and you try to trade a world index or a futures contract like Brent Crude – brace yourself. It might spook you away from trading because it’s too much to spend. But then there are markets that aren’t expensive to trade like Forex, local and some international stocks. Stick to those and lower your risk to 1.5% or even 1% risk per trade. Balancing risk and reward is a delicate art in trading. Reason #4: No Trust Yet in the System Confidence is not easy to gain with trading strategies. I never believed in my system for years. Why? Because I thought the past results truly meant nothing for the future performance of the markets. Then as trading became more logical and as I saw that financial markets is nothing more than psychology and demand and supply, the confidence in the system went up. People will be people. Before plunging into trades, it’s beneficial to familiarise yourself with the strategy and make sure you backtest them and study them like a trading engineer and statistician. Your confidence will grow and eventually you’ll get to the point where you will. JUST TAKE THE TRADE.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
What if your trading position is halted? What happens if your trading position is halted? There are a few possible outcomes for this scenario. First, when a stock is halted – this means trading that market will be suspended. You will not be able to open, adjust or close your position during that time. The best-case scenario is when the position will just be removed from your account and you will lose whatever the margin (deposit) you put into the trade. The worst-case scenario is, if the market resumes trading but the share price drops over 99%, the next day. Either, the company will release news that it’s currently undergoing facing financial difficulties or fraud. Or it has failed to meet the regulatory requirements. This can result in the stock heading to zero and being delisted from the main index. That’s why it’s important to only look to trade markets that are quality blue-chips, highly credible stocks with a great track record. This way you’ll have a much higher chance at picking stocks that are NOT susceptible to heading to zero. But to be safe, you’ll need to get more accurate information about the specific procedures and outcomes of your trade. It's crucial to consult your trading platform, CFD provider, or your broker directly. They will give you more details about what happened to the stock, the market regulations, and the specific terms and conditions that apply to your situation. If you have any more questions I'll be happy to help where I can. Comment your question below.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
3
10 Black Swan Events that shook the marketsBlack Swans are highly unpredictable events that go beyond what is usually expected of a situation. One definition I like is this. A Black Swan is where an event can cause the market to move 10 standard deviations away from the norm. When this happens they could potentially have severe and wide-reaching consequences. You’ll see the market will jump erratically and even cause a halt in trading activity completely. So when you spot a Black Swan. Just take it easy from trading the markets that can be affected. Here are 10 Black Swan Events that I can think of that had an impact on the markets. 2008 Global Financial Crisis Triggered by the collapse of the US housing market, it led to a worldwide banking crisis and severe global economic downturn. COVID-19 Pandemic An unprecedented global health crisis that had significant repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020. Dotcom Bubble Burst (2000) The dramatic rise (due to greed and optimism) and fall (due to fear and panic) of internet companies in the late 1990s led to a severe market correction. Brexit (2016) Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU had immediate impacts on global markets. Japanese Asset Price Bubble Burst (1992) This led to a lost decade of economic stagnation in Japan. (Have you seen the Nikkei! And can you imagine holding stocks from 1992?) Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015) The Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to remove the cap on the Franc’s value against the Euro led to extreme currency volatility. (Forex trading was a nightmare seeing some prices drop hundreds of pips). September 11 Attacks (2001) The terrorist attacks had immediate and long-term effects on global economies and markets. (I was too young to worry so I missed this one.) Fukushima Nuclear Disaster (2011) Triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami, it had significant impacts on global energy markets. (I remember holding oil stocks while driving. And I came home to R120,000 loss). Flash Crash (2010) The US stock market crash, triggered by a high-frequency trading algorithm, sent a financial shockwave around the world. (Fat fingers caused by unknown factors). Oil Price Negative (2020) For the first time in history, the price of US oil turned negative due to low demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Which Black Swan event affected you the most? Let me know in the comments?
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
2
Has the global recession already begun?Taking a short position on the SA/JSE 40 as price has broken out of our dynamic support, pulled back and continued to breakout to the downside. On an Elliot wave perspective, it looks like we have completed an entire bullish wave as I have identified 5 motives waves in the Supercycle which means we would have to see 3 corrective waves going to the downside. Which means we should currently be forming wave A until price invalidates this. Not only do the Elliot waves point to price being bearish but I am confident we've reached a top in the South African stock market as price has failed to break above the high at 75470 and on the micro timeframes price has been making lower highs and lows since then. For my bearish stance to be invalidated I'd need to see price break above the range high at 73853.97. If not however, I will be looking to add more positions at the major higher low the market has created at 66423.89 as this would officially signal on the macro timeframes that price is breaking structure and is going to continue to go to the downside. I will be aiming to exit at the inception of the major dynamic support / the end of the corrective Elliot waves. TP - 47108.35 Invalidation / SL - 73853.97
TVC:SA40Short
by MngomezuluCapital
DID YOU KNOW? Trading has never been more...What was a realm for Wall Street titans and for the affluent investors… In the last couple of years, it has knocked its walls, and has broken the financial chains. Today, it’s at the hand to the everyday individual, regardless of their financial background. Just to put it into perspective. In 2003 until like 2007, trading was very limited. I had a very old-fashioned trading software which updated once a day. I only had shares to trade. And then as the years progressed, I was paying R17,000 a year to have a software that updated every 15 minutes. The struggle was REAL! But today, is a different story. You are in the best times every to trade. It’s the cheapest it’s ever been. It has more markets, instruments, options and features at your fingertips. And you can even start with your charting, preparation and work on your trading track record – essentially for FREE. So, if you’re not in the trading game yet – WHY NOT? And that’s just the start of it. DID YOU KNOW? Trading has never been more… #1: Affordable Trading, as we know it, has undergone significant transformations in the past decade. It is now more affordable than ever before. A combination of technological advancements, regulatory changes, and the evolution of trading platforms has significantly reduced the financial barriers to entry. Just look at TradingView? Many brokerages are in such high competition that they have had no choice but to: Cut brokerages Make minimal spreads for trade Remove the yearly platform fee Some even have a zero-commission trading platform The only expensive thing, with some brokers, is that you might need to have a minimum account size. But the money is yours. It stays in your account. And you might even earn interest just by keeping it there. It’s amazing. #2: Easier to Learn With the proliferation of online learning resources on YouTube, TikTok, websites - you can master the art of trading – FREE. Even most reputable brokers now offer comprehensive trading education, to help you on the way to trading their platforms. And many brokerages offer demo accounts where beginners can practice trading with virtual (paper) money. This way they can gain hands-on experience without the risk of losing any real money. #3: Accessible Trading has never been more accessible. Gone are the days when trading meant being physically present on the exchange floor or having to call your broker to place a trade. In today’s digital age, you can trade on your smart phone tablet or computer. Also, with the high competition – most great brokers offer their own customised trading apps and online platforms. And the variety is crazy. Whether you want to trade CFDs, Spread Betting, Futures, Options, Lots, or other instruments – the world is your trading oyster. Just go to TradingView and you’ll see hundreds of thousands of markets to choose from. (Stocks, indices, commodities, Forex, Crypto, ETFs, Bonds, Economic indicators and Funds). #4: Hospitable With brokers and market makers with their obligatory regulatory frameworks and criteria, around the globe, they are constantly pushing for more transparency and fairness in financial markets. They are also pushing for more educational sources. They are improving with HR and pristine customer services features. The odds are no longer heavily stacked in favour of institutional players. Such features help retail traders make informed decisions, level the playing field and make the trading world a more welcoming place for newcomers. So, we can see trading is becoming more affordable, easier to learn, accessible, and hospitable. And they will continue to do so and improve, which is why you have got to take the leap and harness what is available. As I mentioned earlier. Today the world is your trading oyster – Go fishing!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
6 Rules of Successful Trading Once you become a trader. Once you think about trading every day. Once you have set your mind, soul, and heart into trading. There is no going back. You’ve reached the point of no return! And it’s thrilling and exhilarating once you’ve mastered this element to your life. So you might as well harness the true nature of what it takes to be successful. Here are 6 key rules every successful trader lives by. Always have a trading plan One hallmark of a successful trader is an effective trading plan. This is a self-journey and only you can endure it through different endeavours. Your trading plan acts as a roadmap and your game-plan, to guide you to your daily trading activities to help you make informed decisions. This plan should detail your system, risk and reward management along with your financial goals, risk tolerance, criteria for entering and exiting trades, and strategies for managing your trades. Every trade you execute should align with the objectives outlined in your plan. Also, evolve and adapt to your plan along with the ever evolving market world. Don’t procrastinate In the world of trading, timing and persistence is everything. Successful traders understand the im portance of making swift, decisive moves when the right opportunities arise. Procrastination, on the other hand, can lead to missed opportunities laziness and potential losses. So, get up, make your coffee and get to it. Also, remember to always keep a close eye on market trends, economic indicators, and relevant news events. This proactive approach will ensure you’re well-prepared to act promptly when your defined trading criteria are met. Remember, the market won’t wait for you, so you must be ready to seize opportunities when they present themselves. Be patient While it’s essential to act decisively. It’s also our goal to just….. WAIT. Be patient and only strike when you see that golden opportunity present itself. Sometimes, the best action is inaction. Sometimes, you have to just wait it out and stay out. Neutral is also a position. And you need to know when it is best to protect and preserve your portfolio. Successful traders don’t let impatience force them into suboptimal trades that fall outside their strategic plan. Just take the trade I’m seriously going to have a mug or a t-shirt saying. Trade well and just take the trade. When your plan indicates it’s time to trade, you need to overcome your hesitations and execute the trade. Traders must realize that not every trade will result in profit. So you might as well take the trade that lines up when it’s a high probability one. Even the best traders face losses. Even the best trades take losing weeks, months and even quarters! What matters most is your overall performance across many trades. As I always say, it’s not about the 1 trade but the hundreds of trades later. So, when the conditions of your trading plan are met, take the trade, and maintain your risk management strategies to limit potential losses. Keep learning and evolving Financial markets are dynamic and ever-evolving. As a trader, it’s crucial to keep learning and adapting to these changes. Stay updated with market trends, new trading strategies, and changes in regulations. Consider continual education a part of your trading plan. See what other successful traders are doing. See what other strategies they’re adapting to. See what new markets are available and what sectors are outperforming. Learn to earn. This ongoing learning process will keep you on top of your trading game and help you adapt your strategies as markets evolve. Don’t give up No matter what you do, remember. You only lose when you quit. Trading is a long-term game filled with ups and downs. The key is to view these setbacks as learning experiences, not reasons to quit. When faced with losses, successful traders analyze their decisions, identify mistakes, and learn from them. They maintain a positive mindset and understand that perseverance is crucial. Stay focused on your trading plan, refine your strategies, and remain resilient on your path to trading success. By incorporating these six rules into your trading routine, you’ll be well on your way to a profitable and sustainable trading career. Always have a trading plan Don’t procrastinate Be patient Just take the trade Keep learning and evolving Don’t give up
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
The JSE ALSI 40 - Boy who cried BULL again! Target 80.384The JSE ALSI 40 has been moving in this large somewhat frustrating Symmetrical Triangle since December 2022. I've been bullish with the index and have expected it to break above the apex by now. But the triangle just keeps on moving in its consolidation sideways range. Thing is, the up signs are showing. This market wants to fly up and the rest of the international markets are holding it down. But now with the breakout above the Falling Wedge with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, maybe we can get our push up finally. Other indicators confirm upside to come Price>200 - Bullish - 7 needs to cross above 21 thought RSI>50 and higher lows are being formed. Target 1 is now moved to a higher 80,384. Can we get our breakout now. Us breakout traders have been patient enough...
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Cut out Useless Trading Data - 6 Points There is a curse of knowledge in the world of trading. And it comes a time where a new trader believes the way they can WIN is through… Knowing and applying as much info and data as possible. I’ve been there. In 2008, you should have seen my charts. They looked like Christmas Trees. Cut out the conflicting indicators. Cut out ANYTHING that does not make logical sense. Less is more with trading. Let’s explore some factors that can help you cut out the unnecessary data. Find One or Two Systems Only Trading systems are a collection of rules and parameters that traders use to determine their entry and exit points. With myriad trading systems available, it’s really tempting to dabble in different ones. And as a beginner trader, I understand it’s crucial for you to find yourself and your trading personality. However, once you find what system works for you. Once you find the ones that match your trading style, risk tolerance, and financial goals – Stick to them. Adapt, evolve, improve and optimise your strategy. When you absolutely master your strategy and your focus, you can gain deep expertise in those systems and utilize them more effectively. Minimize the Number of Markets Each market is unique, with its own set of rules, trends, and volatility. If you diversify into too many markets, it can dilute your focus and make it harder to understand the nuances of each market. Instead, find the markets that most definitely work you’re your strategy. Whether it be stocks, indices, Forex, commodities or crypto. Break them up into watchlists and the ones that don’t work with the system, well don’t include them obviously! Choose Only One or Two Time Frames Just as with trading systems and markets, time frames also require careful consideration. Whether you prefer day trading, swing trading, or position trading, it should tell you the time frames you should be focusing on. Select one or two time frames that align with your trading style and stick with them. I like daily for stocks, commodities and crypto. I like 15 minutes for Intraday trading indices and daily for identifying the Daily Bias. By doing so, you’ll avoid the confusion and contradiction that often comes from analysing multiple time frames simultaneously. Cut Out Unnecessary Indicators The year was 2008. I had 5 Moving Averages, 1 Bollinger Band, 1 MACD, 1 RSI, 1 Stochastics, 1 William %R, Volume, and even the ATR (Average True Range). The problem was. These signals were conflicting each other. Do you have any idea how difficult it is to back and forward test a strategy like this? And yes, all the information is at our fingertips. But it can also be the doom of our portfolios. Why? I realised one thing. Indicators, volume, price action etc… Is all based on ONE constant. Historical data. The data and information you see is all based on the past. There are no predictions, no certainties only probabilities. So you need to cut out the unnecessary information. Don’t fall for “analysis paralysis,” where excessive data hampers your decision-making. Choose a few key indicators that provide the most valuable information for your trading strategy. Focus on One or Two Financial Instruments Diversification is a key principle in finance, but it’s possible to overdo it. When I say instruments I mean CFDs, Lots, Spread Betting, Options, Futures etc… You know what a schlepp it is to have different journals for different instruments, trading the same things? Ye… Choose 1 or maybe two instruments (if your one broker doesn’t offer some markets you wish to trade). But there is no benefit in trading a whole bunch of trading instruments at once. Also when you spread your capital too thinly across multiple financial instruments, you’ll find it can complicate your trading strategy, portfolio and risk management. And it will make it difficult to keep track of your investments. Only Have One or Two or Max Three Trading Accounts Managing multiple trading accounts can be a logistical nightmare. Similar to what I mentioned above. It can lead to unneeded complexity in tracking performance, managing tax liabilities, and maintaining a balanced portfolio. Instead, limit your trading accounts to 1, 2 or max 3. This is so you can monitor your trading performance across different markets. For example. Forex is a completely different ball game to stocks (in my opinion). And so, I like to have two different trading accounts for each. Final words. Let’s focus on less rather than more going forward. Cut out unnecessary and useless data when you trade. And remember these point which is what we have covered today… Find One or Two Systems Only Minimize the Number of Markets Choose Only One or Two Time Frames Cut Out Unnecessary Indicators Focus on One or Two Financial Instruments Only Have One or Two or Max Three Trading Accounts
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Important Trading Terms YOU need to KnowSorry but the truth is… You can’t get away from the trading lingo. There are at least 7 terms you need to deal with a day. But fortunately, they repeat and before you know it – they’re second nature. Let’s start with the most important terms – you’ll face every day as a trader. Symbol – Name of market you want to trade: The symbol represents the unique identifier of a specific financial instrument or market. It is the special name that is given for each market. For example, in the stock market, symbols are typically a combination of letters that represent a particular company’s shares. In the forex market, symbols are currency pairs such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. In the commodity market each have their own symbol i.e. Gold = XAU/USD, GCI Go to TradingView head over to Symbol search and start searching and adding to your watch list. Side: Buy (go long) or Sell (go short): The “side” refers to the direction of your trade. Buying (going long) means you believe the price of the instrument will rise, and you aim to profit from the increase. Selling (going short) means you anticipate the price will fall, allowing you to profit from the downward movement. The choice of the side depends on your market analysis and trading strategy. Quantity: No. of CFDs or lots: The quantity represents the number of Contracts for Difference (CFDs) or lots you want to trade. This is all dependent on your risk profile and portfolio size. CFDs allow you to speculate on the price movements of an underlying asset without owning the asset itself. The quantity determines the exposure and potential profit or loss of your trade. It’s important to consider your risk tolerance and account size when determining the appropriate quantity to trade. Order type (Market or limit): The order type specifies how you want your trade to be executed. A market order is executed immediately at the most current market price. This type of order guarantees execution but does not guarantee a specific price. So there might be slippage (where you get in versus where you wanted to get in) which can interfere with your Risk to Reward. A limit order allows you to set a specific price at which you want the trade to be executed. So basically, you LIMIT The price you wish to enter. The order will be executed only if the market reaches or exceeds your specified price. Validity: How long to hold: Validity refers to the duration for which your order remains active. Common options include: GTC: “Good Till Cancelled” where the order remains active until you manually cancel it. FOK: Fill or Kill: This type of order requires immediate execution of the entire order quantity. If the full amount is not executed, it is then cancelled. GTD: “Good Till Date” (GTD), where you can specify a specific date until which the order is valid. MIT: Market if Touched: This order is triggered when the market price reaches a specified level (trigger price). It then becomes a market order and is executed at the best available price. LIT: Limit if Touched: If a Limit if Touched order is triggered when the market price reaches a trigger price. However, it becomes a limit order with a specified limit price and will only be executed at or better than the limit price. Levels: Entry, Stop loss, and Take profit: These levels are essential in managing your risk and potential profits. Entry Level: The price at which you enter the market by opening a trade. Stop Loss Level: A predetermined price level at which your trade will automatically close to limit potential losses if the market moves against you. Take Profit Level: A predetermined price level at which your trade will automatically close if the market moves in your favour. What trading term do you want to know more about and let us know if this was useful!
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
Where to NEXT with the JSE ALSI 40? I hope UP!Do you want the JSE ALSI 40 to fall where we profit from all the shorts. Do we want the JSE ALSI 40 to rise, where we can profit from the longs. I'll tell you what I want. I always want the JSE ALSI 40 to rally. I don't mind being stopped out on shorts. I don't care about the shorts anyway. And the reason is because I am optimistic with South Africa. I want the companies to do well and I want to celebrate their success rather than downfall. So, no matter what the situation is I always want the JSE ALSI to rally. Take a look at the chart now... We see a change in the pattern. Since the last higher low. We have extended the Symmetrical Triangle. So in a way, it's within the formation and the price is likely to head up... On the other hand, if it breaks below it'll be a reversal pattern and the price will likely continue down. Let's hope for the prior analysis as I'm an optimist.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
Why MOST Traders QuitI have said this many times. You only lose when you quit. Until then you’re either earning or you’re learning. But the issue is majority of people quit trading. And it goes far beyond just money lost. I say that because the essence of trading is playing with money you can afford to lose and you can psychologically handle. Right? So, it goes beyond money. If you’re thinking of quitting trading, first give this piece a read and let’s identify the cause and it might help you to carry on. You’re closer today to achieving your trading goals than yesterday. The Pitfalls of Financial Trading REASON #1: They blew their account by risking too much One of the primary reasons why many traders ultimately quit the financial markets is the common mistake of blowing their trading account. There are three main reasons you blew your account. You risked far too much on certain trades. You did NOT adhere to strict money management principles. Your portfolio was tiny (Under $1,000) to start off with. So the costs, the brokerages, the margins were all too much. It’s like flying a plane at a low altitude hoping you won’t strike a mountain. REASON #2: They keep adapting losing strategies based on non-tested methods Another reason for you to abandon your trading is this. Your methods, strategies and systems are losers. If you back and forward test, it yields negative results. So, technically the system is achieving what its numbers are in a way. I’ve back tested a LOT of strategies in my youth. 100s of thousands of parameters, indicators and criteria. And 89% of them were just plain losers. Don’t think by logic, that the system will work. Don’t think by a few months, will dictate a systems complete and eternal performance. Don’t just follow a trader’s strategy and adapt to your own without any backtested results. Without proper testing and evaluation, you are at risk of adopting strategies that are based on faulty assumptions or rely on limited historical data. REASON #3: They go against their strategy as their ego takes over and they lack confidence Ego is a dangerous trait to have as a trader. And with you feeling like you know better than the market and deviating from your plan, is a recipe for disaster. Do it once, you’ll do it again. Do it a few times, and you’ll get right back on that emotional roller coaster that comes with trading. And it will grow and infect your trading as it will lead to even more impulsive actions and irrational decision-making. Your confidence will get shot. Your vibrations within yourself will be depro and will reflect onto your trading performance. The psychological pressures associated with trading can magnify the impact of losses and amplify self-doubt, ultimately push you out of the game. REASON #4: They can’t weather through drawdowns NOTE: Drawdowns, which refer to the decline in a trader’s account value from its peak, are an inherent part of trading. Here’s something funny. When you go through good times with trading, it almost feels normal. And you can go through 6 months of great upside for your portfolio. But when that one or two months drawdown kicks in (inevitably it will), time feels different. It feels like an eternity of failure and with the feeling of you’re never getting out of this.. Unfortunately, many traders find it challenging to cope with these challenging phases, leading to frustration and ultimately quitting. Am I right? Well as my friend and great colleague Igor said to me: Your biggest winning streak and your biggest drawdown is still to come. So you might as well embrace it with strict money management principles along the way. Successful trading comes with the ability to easily withstand drawdowns and navigate through extended periods of market downturns. Also, psychologically you may find as a new trader that when you endure through longer periods of downside in the market, it can be both mentally and emotionally draining. Extended periods of drawdowns can cause a few problems: It can erode a trader’s confidence It can take away their optimism It can make them feel envious over other traders who are winning It can demotivate them to carry on It can cause them to make irrational decisions It can lead to over trading and revenge trading It can make them quit. They find the next “best” thing, onwards to the next holy grail (which never arrives). REASON #5: To continue the pursuit of the next “best” thing People follow where they think the quick money it. They are constantly on the quest to find their holy grail. Sure, trading isn’t for everyone. And Yes trading is the hardest and most easiest way to make an income. But, you seek will also require a ton of research, psychology, sacrifice and time. Nothing of high reward comes without a degree of risk. Bigger the reward, greater the risk. Or everyone would make a ton of money, right? So don’t fall into that trap of jumping to the next lily like a frog… Traders who constantly search for the next big thing end up chasing elusive dreams instead of focusing on developing their skills and understanding the markets. The reality is that there is no magic strategy that guarantees success in trading. The markets are ever-changing, and what works today may not work tomorrow. It is important for traders to recognize that trading success is not about finding a secret shortcut or relying on external factors beyond their control. It is about continuous learning, discipline, and a willingness to adapt to changing market conditions. Develop your robust trading plan, manage your risk effectively, and stay focused on long-term goals. Those factors alone will keep you on the right quest to trading well.
TVC:SA40Education
by Timonrosso
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