3 Dangerous States of a Trader“To err is human”
It comes from Alexander Pope’s poem, “An Essay on Criticism.”
This popular saying reminds us that making mistakes and feeling emotions are a common part of the human experience.
In the high-stakes arena of financial trading, most people run their trading through three main emotional states.
You might not be able to eradicate them completely but we can learn to keep them in check for superior trading performance.
Let’s go through these three powerful states.
State #1: Fear in Trading
Fear is the emotional state that:
Stops traders from actioning trades.
Letting losses run (as they refuse to take a loss)
Cutting winners too short (as they don’t want to lose their profits)
When fear dominates, traders may freeze, act too soon, act too late or not act at all.
How to Overcome Fear in Trading
A well-structured trading plan is a trader’s best defense against fear.
You need to think like the market.
You need to trade like the market.
You need to remove fear from your actions.
That’s why you need to limit your risks per trade, where the loss does not affect you emotionally.
You need to be strict with your trading plan, to avoid any discretionary and impulse trading decisions.
And it’s important to start thinking with a more mechanical and rational approach rather than fear-driven ones.
Practice mindfulness and stress management techniques can also keep your fear under control.
State #2: Greed in Trading
Greed drives traders to chase profits.
This often compels them to take on excessive risk for the chance at bigger returns.
They either increase their risk per trade, knowing that the reward will be bigger.
Or because they want more, they will hold onto positions for too long.
Having greed overtake the mind, will also result in overtrading and using up too much of their portfolios per position.
How to Keep Greed at Bay in Trading
Understand that trading is a long-term game.
Consistency with small gains will build up a portfolio.
Be content with 3% – 4% winners. Keep to this and greed will fall away and you’ll have a better chance of longevity when trading.
State #3: Ego in Trading
Ego is one state I never see anyone talk about.
All you hear is fear and greed and greed and fear.
But EGO.
Ego is probably the most stubborn enemy.
“Ego gets you inches but it doesn’t get you impact.” – Cameron Sinclair
It convinces traders that they’re right, even when the market says otherwise.
An inflated ego can lead to overconfidence, over trading, revenge trading and it can cause traders to disregard their strategy, risk and they’ll end up making irrational and dangerous trading decisions.
How to Check Ego in Trading
Even the most successful traders suffer losses.
So you need to humble yourself and adopt amore mindful approach to realistic trading.
Each small loss is a contribution and a trading cost to one step to success.
You’ll also learn more from your losses than your gains. Which will give you an opportunity to learn and improve.
So go back to your trading journal and review, monitor and analyse the true essence of what it takes to build your portfolio.
This will help keep your ego in check.
Conclusion
Fear, greed, and ego are integral parts of the human experience.
But there is NO need and use for it to succeed as a trader.
When you learn to recognise these states and, you’ll be able to manage them better.
And this will drastically improve your trading performance.
Remember, successful trading is less about conquering the market and more about mastering your emotions.
SA40 trade ideas
10 Black Swan Events that Shook the marketsBlack Swans are highly unpredictable events that go beyond what is usually expected of a situation.
One definition I like is this.
A Black Swan is where an event can cause the market to move 10 standard deviations away from the norm.
When this happens they could potentially have severe and wide-reaching consequences.
You’ll see the market will jump erratically and even cause a halt in trading activity completely.
So when you spot a Black Swan. Just take it easy from trading the markets that can be affected.
Here are 10 Black Swan Events that I can think of that had an impact on the markets.
2008 Global Financial Crisis
Triggered by the collapse of the US housing market, it led to a worldwide banking crisis and severe global economic downturn.
COVID-19 Pandemic
An unprecedented global health crisis that had significant repercussions on global economies and markets in 2020.
Dotcom Bubble Burst (2000)
The dramatic rise (due to greed and optimism) and fall (due to fear and panic) of internet companies in the late 1990s led to a severe market correction.
Brexit (2016)
Britain’s unexpected decision to leave the EU had immediate impacts on global markets.
Japanese Asset Price Bubble Burst (1992)
This led to a lost decade of economic stagnation in Japan.
(Have you seen the Nikkei! And can you imagine holding stocks from 1992?)
Swiss Franc Unpegging (2015)
The Swiss National Bank’s sudden decision to remove the cap on the Franc’s value against the Euro led to extreme currency volatility.
(Forex trading was a nightmare seeing some prices drop hundreds of pips).
September 11 Attacks (2001)
The terrorist attacks had immediate and long-term effects on global economies and markets.
(I was too young to worry so I missed this one.)
Fukushima Nuclear Disaster (2011)
Triggered by a massive earthquake and tsunami, it had significant impacts on global energy markets.
(I remember holding oil stocks while driving. And I came home to R120,000 loss).
Flash Crash (2010)
The US stock market crash, triggered by a high-frequency trading algorithm, sent a financial shockwave around the world.
(Fat fingers caused by unknown factors).
Oil Price Negative (2020)
For the first time in history, the price of US oil turned negative due to low demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Which Black Swan event affected you the most?
JSE ALSI 40 has one hurdle to break before downsideJSE ALSI 40 is currently testing its November 2022 Support (which was resistance).
The price will need to break below to get traction to the downside.
It can take a few days and for bulls and bears to fight this one.
But we'll see. If it breaks down there is a decent target 59,369/
My bias is indeed down, but there does need a strong catalyst to break this.
J200 ToP40 - Monthly ViewThe Top40 ended the month of September down -4.01% keeping to the seasonal trend of being down for the month.
The next quarter has the 'tendency' to be seasonally bullish.
Major Support levels 65574-63278
Bulls need to reclaim 67870 to ignite a new leg up on the larger picture.
How to Time Manage your Trading – 6 WaysWhen it comes to the world of trading, time isn’t just money – it’s everything.
A minute delay, can miss a profit opportunity.
A minute delay, can make you question the trade.
A minute delay, can affect your emotions.
This is something I am constantly working on (even 20 years later).
I truly want to wake up earlier, spot trades quicker (as they come) and have a better time management system.
I might not be an expert in time management yet, but I will share some crucial tips I have learnt over the years.
This will help you to not miss the trade.
#1: Why you need to be punctual
Being punctual isn’t just a good trait – it’s a survival skill.
The markets move so quickly. They move with or without you.
And they present opportunities on the daily.
You need to be on time and when you see an opportunity that is about to present itself.
Write it down. Stick note it. Set a reminder or something.
But for Flying Spaghetti monster sake, don’t miss it!
#2: Easy to miss a profit – when you don’t time analyses
Every trader has stories about the “one that got away”.
So what can we do to avoid this?
You need to have your watchlists spread out according to what you trade. With TradingView, I have all my watchlists in different categories.
Stocks, Forex, Commodities, Indices, International stocks. Etc…
Then you’ll need to go over each watchlist every day.
Write down the potential trades lining up. Then revisit the markets the next day.
You need to be more punctual and disciplined to monitor, analyse and prepare for execution.
Those golden opportunities missed due to hesitation or distractions.
By maintaining punctuality in monitoring and execution, you can minimize these missed chances and keep your trading performance on the upbeat.
#3: Set Reminders: The Power of Alerts
Luckily, we have the technology to harness.
You can set reminders for price levels to hit, on your own trading and charting platforms.
Use these alerts to remind you when to act, or at least prepare for execution.
#4: Sticky Note It
Old school?
Maybe.
Effective?
Absolutely!
It doesn’t hurt to pick up a pen and a sticky note once in a while.
Keep these visual reminders, to prioritise what you may be trading today.
You’ll be surprised how useful this little pieces of paper are.
#5: Develop a Routine
Trading is a lifestyle.
So you need to establish your routine with it.
If you’re an early Hadeda you need to do a full pre-market review and write down the trades lining up for the day.
If you prefer to look at the markets in the afternoon, choose a time where you will not be distracted by work, social media, kids or the Rugby!
If you are an after the markets kind of trader, then do your research, analyses and even set your trading levels for the next day.
I like to plot and draw all the levels and setups in the charts, and then write down which ones are almost ripe for the picking.
#6: Prioritize Your Trades
Not all trades are ready to action.
Some might take a few days or months.
What you can do is, flag them or colour them.
GREEN – Act soon.
ORANGE – Check over the next few days
YELLOW – Trade could line up in the next few weeks
RED – Potential setup but not likely in a few weeks.
This approach will help you allocate your time better.
So let’s sum up the time-management methods you can apply.
#1: Why you need to be punctual
#2: Easy to miss a profit – when you don’t time analyses
#3: Set Reminders: The Power of Alerts
#4: Sticky Note It
#5: Develop a Routine
#6: Prioritize Your Trades
JSE ALSI 40 chosen a direction? - DOWN! Bearish Symmetrical Triangle has been in the making since 17 November 2022...
However, the last few months, the JSE has just not been able to break above it's most recent declination resistance.
Instead, it's for the first time, broken below the formation - showing the bears are really starting to win.
How long will it last we don't know. But it looks like the JSE ALSI 40 has chosen a direction and it's down.
Other indicators confirm.
200>21>7 - Bearish
RSI<50 - Bounce on resistance
Target 59,428
Update: JSE Top 40 IndexUpdate: JSE Top 40 Index.
Yesterday morning the JSE Top 40 Index was down by 11% from my call at the beginning of the year when I presented a note called: "6 Factors Which Suggests An Attractive Reward-To-Risk For Sellers" (24 January, Published on 25 January on this platform) .
The original idea is attached to this post.
We saw the market peak three days late on 27-January. Well done to all who took the opportunity to reduce their risk.
For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
How to be a Trading WARRIOR!To trade well you need to think like a warrior.
You need to harness your inner strength and go through the battles of trading.
There are spectators, there are participants, and then there are warriors.
These warriors stand apart.
And you need to blend your skills and traits to equip you with everything you need to WIN.
In this article, we’ll delve into the core qualities that can transform you into a genuine trading warrior.
Mastering the Sword of Time
Trading, like a warrior’s battle, is not won in haste.
You need the three Ps as I often write – patience, persistence, and passion.
Markets are fluid entities that are always shifting and changing.
So, you need to take the time to learn how to adapt or die trying.
The Shield of Dedication
Your shield is dedication.
You need to commit to the journey, embrace the learning curve, take the losses and drawdowns in your stride.
You need to continuously seek to improve with every trade, every trend analysis, and every market lineup that comes your way.
Embrace it with dedication.
Discipline: The Unyielding Armour
Discipline is what will make you win.
You need to follow your trading plan and stick to your risk management strategy.
You need to make decisions based on logic, not emotions.
Discipline keeps you grounded, even in the face of market chaos.
The Quest for Self-Understanding
This is a self-journey too.
It’s a lonely but essential quest you need to undergo.
I always say you need to understand your trading personality and risk profile.
Know and identify your strengths, weaknesses, and biases.
This will help you to develop a stronger understanding of who you are as a trading warrior.
Resilience: The Warrior’s Tenacity
Resilience is about bouncing back from losses and setbacks.
They are going to come.
Some are going to be short.
Some are going to be extending.
Rome was not built in a day.
Strategic Thinking: The Battle Plan
Trading warriors are not impulsive.
They develop a strategic plan and evaluate all possible outcomes.
We make sure we calculate risks before we think of getting into a trade.
So have your strategic game-plan with you all times.
Adaptability: The Shape-Shifter’s Gift
The financial market is volatile and unpredictable.
It’s forever changing. New markets, new volume, new algorithms, new economic cycles, and new breakthroughs.
A trading warrior is adaptable and can adjust their strategies to align with the changing markets.
Continuous Learning: Sharpen the Sword
A warrior never stops to hone their skills.
You need to continue to learn, stay ahead of the market trends. And always refine your strategy when need be.
Keep that sword sharp and ready for anything.
Emotional Intelligence: Harness the Stallion
Successful trading requires emotional control.
Learn to adapt to your emotions and feelings.
Become the market and think like them, so you don’t get clouded by your irrational and illogical judgement.
Confidence: The Warrior’s Roar
Confidence is NOT about being right. That’s ego.
Confidence is embracing your losses to come.
Confidence is when you trust your abilities, strategies and decisions.
Confidence is being comfortable with your trading, no matter what.
Independence: The Lone Wolf’s Path
Trading warriors are self-reliant.
They make their own decisions.
They might follow a leader, but they take responsibility with their own trading and risk profile.
You need to learn to take responsibility for them, and don’t blame others for their losses.
Focus: The Eagle’s Gaze
Trading warriors have tunnel vision.
They are looking straight at their goals and responsibilities.
The only thing you can do is to concentrate on your tasks, block out distractions, and don’t allow fear, greed or ego to shift your focus.
Perseverance: The Mountain’s Steadfastness
A trading warrior keeps going.
No matter what obstacles or setbacks approach.
They understand that perseverance is the key to long-term success in trading.
Balance: The Zen Master’s Touch
You don’t want to be glued to your trading screen.
This alone will defeat you.
You need to learn to balance trading, business, work and life.
Don’t put so much energy in things you cannot control.
Balance your life and your lifestyle.
Integrity: The Knight’s Virtue
In every trade, a warrior upholds honesty and fairness.
They stay true to their principles, even when nobody’s watching.
Integrity is what gives you the confidence, respect and laser focus you need to achieve.
Courage: The Lion’s Heart
This is not a faint-hearted game.
You need a lot of courage and calculated risks to trade.
Face losses and stand up against market pressure.
Developing these qualities will not guarantee instant success.
But with time, patience, and perseverance, you’ll find yourself becoming a true trading warrior!
Let’s sum up the trading warrior traits…
Mastering the Sword of Time
The Shield of Dedication
Discipline: The Unyielding Armour
The Quest for Self-Understanding
Resilience: The Warrior’s Tenacity
Strategic Thinking: The Battle Plan
Adaptability: The Shape-Shifter’s Gift
Continuous Learning: Sharpen the Sword
Emotional Intelligence: Harness the Stallion
Confidence: The Warrior’s Roar
Independence: The Lone Wolf’s Path
Focus: The Eagle’s Gaze
Perseverance: The Mountain’s Steadfastness
Balance: The Zen Master’s Touch
Integrity: The Knight’s Virtue
Courage: The Lion’s Heart
The BEST trade to TAKE!Do you know what the BEST trade is?
The best trade is not a winner.
The best trade is not a lucky streak.
The best trade is not what you think…
If you’ve followed your rules, strategy, criteria, risk management and taken the trade.
That is the BEST you can do.
Whether it wins or not, you have taken the BEST trade.
Let’s dig in…
Follow Your Rules
Every successful trader has a set of rules that act as the bedrock of their strategy.
These rules are based on highly researched analyses on back and forward testing.
In the medium to long term, you’ll reap the rewards.
Therefore, your BEST trade is following your rules.
Wait for the criteria
To find the BEST trade, you must establish specific criteria that a trade must meet before you pull the trigger.
Maybe you’re waiting for syzygy between price action, candlesticks, volume, indicators, chart patterns or a combination of them.
Once the criteria has been met, then you’re ready to take the BEST trade….
Keep to your risk management
Protecting and preserving your capital is paramount in trading.
The BEST trade is when you have assessed the risks and put your safeguards for your trades.
What are you willing to risk per trade?
What is your margin requirements in the trade?
Is it affordable?
Will you have enough capital to play it through
Will you have enough capital to take on many other BEST trades?
Can you emotionally handle the risk per trade?
Once you’ve got the right answers, you’re ready to take the BEST trade.
Own your mindset – The Ultimate Act of Courage
You know the trade might be a winner or loser.
And it’s not about the outcome.
IThe BEST trade is about having the courage to execute when all your criteria are met.
It’s about trusting your process and embracing the uncertainty that comes with every trade.
J.T.T.B.T – Just Take The BEST trade
Once you’ve done the planning, analyses, risk assessment, then you’re ready to Just Take The BEST Trade!
You’ve done your job.
If it wins great – it’s once step closer to portfolio growth.
If it loses – it’s the cost of the trading business.
Remember this…
The BEST trade is not a destination but a journey filled with learning, discipline, and resilience.
It’s not solely about profit or loss.
It’s about the process of becoming a better trader and evolving as a trader yourself.
Let’s sum up with the steps to you taking the BEST Trade.
Follow Your Rules
Wait for the criteria
Keep to your risk management
Own your mindset – The Ultimate Act of Courage
J.T.T.B.T – Just Take The BEST trade
Why We NEED to Lose To Be SuccessfulThere is a paradox to succeed when trading.
And that is, we need to lose to win.
We need to make sure though that our potential losses are ALWAYS less than our gains.
I want to go through some of the reasons why losses are not only inevitable but also essential in the journey of successful trading.
Reason #1. Losses are Inevitable
Financial markets are largely unpredictable due to a plethora of influencing factors such as:
Demand & supply
Geo, economical and political events
Algorithm volume trading by institutions
New influx of traders into the market.
Unpredictable micro and macro events
The unpredictable nature implies that losses are part and parcel of trading.
Not even the most seasoned traders can boast of a 100% win rate. Most successful traders end up with a 48% to 70% win rate.
So, if you’re looking for a high win rate – you need a reality check to stay grounded and humble.
Only then, you may have a chance at winning in this difficult game.
Reason #2. Losing Months Will Happen
Even when you work and follow proven and profitable strategies, you will face a time of losing streaks.
This can occur over weeks, even stretching into months.
You might lose a small chunk of your portfolio, but then you’ll need to the time to recoup and bring your portfolio back to ATH (All time highs).
Reason #3. Unfavourable market conditions
Markets are intrinsically volatile.
Not only that but, small markets tend to follow the bigger leaders.
And when the price fluctuations are erratic by nature, it carries the stocks, indices and other markets with it.
E.g. We could see the S&P 500 move in a sideways consolidation period for three months in a row.
And now matter how good the prospects are within a smaller market, they tend to follow the main indices.
So, we have to just wait for the better times and for the more conducive market conditions.
This moves on to a bigger element:
Reason #4: Economic Cycles
Broad economic cycles include:
Accumulation
Mark-up phase
Distribution
Mark down phase
Then there are periods of a boom, recession and a crash.
These will also impact market trends and lead to losses.
It’s important to learn to hedge positions (long and short) and know when to be neutral (no holdings).
You’ll need to learn how to adapt and integrate losses into your trading. That way, you’ll be more prepared and less emotional for when they come.
Let’s sum up the reasons:
Reason #1. Losses are Inevitable
Reason #2. Losing Months Will Happen
Reason #3. Unfavourable market conditions
Reason #4: Economic Cycles
JSE ALSI follows Friday's action and makes a breakout and fakeouJSE ALSI 40 - Update
We've seen the ALSI 40 form a restriction range between 70,122 and 67601.
It broke above the downtrend on Friday, just to come back down and form a fakeout following Americas downside on Friday night.
As most Premium know. Monday is a choppy day with no definitive chosen trend and so we'll let it choose a direction first before making any decisions.
It's these times where it's good to be hedged with longs and shorts during this timulteous time. I'll let you know...
Sector Ratings Relative To JSE Top 40 IndexI published this on Friday afternoon, so there shouldn't be much change.
Friday 15-Sep-2023, 15h46 JSE Sectors vs the broader market (using the JSE Top 40 Index as a proxy). This data can provide insight into relative sector positioning.
For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
Enhance your Trading Expertise into the Future – 5 Tech breakthrIn today’s rapidly evolving financial landscape.
You really need to stay ahead or get left behind.
It’s our passion to help you deepen your knowledge of the market trends and technologies that are shaping the future.
And you know what, there are some very important trends and sectors you’ll need to adapt to your trading.
Let’s explore some of the new paradigms that are transforming the trading ecosystem.
New ETFs
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have surged in popularity lately.
This is because of their flexibility, accessibility, and potential for diversification.
You’re going to hear a lot more from companies like BlackRock’s iShares and Vanguard leading the way.
Recently, thematic ETFs have been gaining traction.
These ETFs focus on niche areas like environmental, social, and governance (ESG), technology, and health.
For example, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), managed by ARK Invest.
This targets companies that are expected to benefit from disruptive innovation across different sectors.
New AI Tech
Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing financial trading by providing traders with automated, high-speed decisions based on complex algorithms.
You need to adapt AI into your life, before it goes past your head.
AI-powered trading software’s is another thing I am looking at and trying to adapt into MATI.
With it you’ll be able to analyze large volumes of data at lightning speed.
This will allow you to make more informed decisions, run your trading journal, analyse data and even pinpoint which markets work best with your strategy.
We are still in the infant stage of deep and machine learning with trading, so learn and grow with it.
Electric Vehicles
The electric vehicle (EV) industry is really taking over.
I’m sure you’re seeing more Teslas on the road than ever before.
I’m sure you’re seeing electric vehicle stations to charge cars.
Even by the ports and harbours, you’ll see electric charging stations.
With companies such as Tesla and NIO leading the charge.
As the demand for clean energy solutions grows,
It’s not just about the car manufacturers.
But also the companies that provide these charging stations like (ChargePoint, Blink Charging) and battery technology (Panasonic, LG Chem).
Space Tourism
Space tourism is no longer a figment of science fiction. Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are making commercial space travel a reality.
Just recently in June 2023, Virgin Galactic had their first space tourism trial experience.
Before you know it, maybe we too will be looking at our beautiful blueberry of a planet from space.
Metaverse
The Metaverse is where you can combine a fully immersed world with VR ora shared digital experience with virtually augmented physical reality.
Companies like Facebook (now Meta Platforms), Apple and Roblox are investing heavily in this space.
This is just a scratch of what is coming out, and what I’ll be applying to trading.
Here are another 20 breakthrough technologies to watch out for.
Quantum Computing
CRISPR and Gene Editing
Autonomous Vehicles
Advanced Robotics
Machine Learning (ML)
Nanotechnology
Li-Fi (Light Fidelity)
Synthetic Biology
Hyperloop Technology
Smart Cities
Hydrogen Energy
Lab-Grown Meat
3D Bioprinting
Drone Delivery
Personal A
Remember, knowledge is not just power – in the world of trading, it’s profit.
IMPORTANT - 14 Risk and Money Management RulesOver the past 20+ years, I've only mentioned a few money management rules.
But then I thought about it, and realised there are so many more I use when I trade.
So with this TradingView platform, I’m going to share my 14 most essential risk management rules I’ve ever come across.
RULE #1: The 2% Rule – Limit Your Risk
You might have seen this risk rule from me before, but there are new TradingView members everyday.
Here’s how it works…
Never risk more than 2% of your total trading capital on a single trade.
No matter how good the trade looks, this rule will help you safeguard your portfolio from the impact of a single trade's outcome.
The reason is, you will enter a losing streak.
You will most likely take from five to seven losing trading in a row.
But with the 2% rule, you’ll only be down 10% to 14% of your portfolio compared to if you risked 5% to 10% per trade.
RULE #2: The Probability Rule – Assess Trades
When you buy or sell trades, there are three types that can line up according to your trading strategy.
I like to categorise these trades as.
High, medium, or low probability.
For high, medium, and low probability trades, risk 2%, 1.5%, and 1% of your portfolio respectively.
If my trading criteria matches all the right elements to buy or sell – this is considered a high probability trade.
That’s where I will risk 2% of my portfolio per trade.
If my trading criteria has one or two elements that are showing conflicting signals – this will be considered a medium probability trade.
In this case, I’ll only risk 1.5% of my portfolio.
Other cases, there’ll be a time where the system will line up but the market environment is in a choppy and volatile range.
This is where the trade will be a low probability trade. And so, I’ll only risk 1% of my portfolio per trade.
Identify the probabilities and you’ll be able to adjust your risk accordingly.
RULE #3: 20% Drawdown Rule – Pause After Losses
There could be a time, where your portfolio is in the slums.
This is where you could be down 14% to 20% of your portfolio.
What then?
Well you need to protect your capital.
I have a simple rule where, once my portfolio is down 20% of my portfolio – I will pause my trading.
During a drawdown, I’ll then switch to paper trading until conditions improve.
If the market resumes in favourable territory and I feel more confident that the system will work better – I’ll then resume trading with 1% risk.
RULE #4: Never Risk Unaffordable Money
This one is a given, and one I often preach.
With trading you should NEVER risk any money you can’t afford.
If you’re using your only savings from retirement or you have any money that you’ll be emotionally attached to - Avoid trading all together.
This is not only dangerous for your financial situation but it will also lead to a rollercoaster of emotions trading during both winning and losing streaks.
RULE #5: The Time Stop-Loss Rule – Time-Based Limits
If a trade doesn't meet its profit target (or hits the stop loss) within a specific timeframe, close it.
I have a 7 week (35 business days) rule.
It doesn’t matter when, what level or if the trade is in the money or out the money.
You want to close the trade, after a certain period of time has elapsed, for three reasons.
1. You’re a short-term trader and don’t want to turn it into a long term investment
2. There are costs you are paying daily which is leading you to incurring a higher loss or less profits.
3. You don’t want to feel married to any specific trade.
Either you’ll bank a lower loss than you planned. Or you will bank a lower profit than planned.
This prevents capital from being tied up in stagnant trades.
RULE #6: The Trailing 1:1 Rule – Protect Profits
This rule, will help you secure your profits when a trade is moving in your favour.
Here’s how it works.
Once a trade hits a 1:1 risk-reward ratio (and has moved in my favour).
It gives the opportunity to move the stop loss up to just above break even.
This way you’ll will bank a minimum gain, should the trade turn against you.
Also, it will increase your win rate and emotionally you’ll feel it’s much easier to hold a trade with nothing to lose.
RULE #7: Half Off Rule – Secure Gains
Sometimes, you don’t want to move your stop loss.
Instead you want to lock in profits, while the market is moving in your favour.
So the rule is simple.
When the trade reaches the risk to reward of 1:1, this might be the best time to close half your position.
This will lock in some profits while leaving room for further gains.
RULE #8: The 5% Margin Rule – Control Leverage
This rule is more applicable to those who have a MUCH larger account of R25,000 and up.
Remember, with trading you’re buying and selling on margin.
If the gearing is 10 times this means if I hold 1% of my account, I am risking 10% of my portfolio if the trade heads to zero.
So, the trick is to never risk more than 5% of your account on a single trade.
This approach reduces exposure to risk and aids risk tracking in volatile markets.
RULE #9: The Intraday Stop Rule – Daily Loss Limit
Not all traders like to hold overnight.
You get intraday traders who buy and sell trades within the day.
If you are one of them, then this rule is for you.
Make sure you set a daily loss limit or a maximum number of losses.
For example, if you’re down 3 to 4 trades in the day – that might be your que to stop trading for the day. There are a few reasons for this including:
• The market environment is not conducive to continue.
• You need to protect your capital.
• Your emotions might run out of control having taken too many losses in a day.
• This could result in impulsive and revenge trading to try make up for your losers.
RULE #10: Forex NEWS Rule – Avoid High-Impact News Events
I mentioned this in the last Trading Tips Q&A, but I’ll say it again.
If you’re a Forex trader and you want to avoid volatile times when certain news events come out.
You can stay out or avoid trading during high-impact news events.
These events include CPI, NFP, PPI, and FOMC releases.
Such events can increase trading risks and lead to unpredictable market movements. (Especially in the Forex market!).
RULE #11: The Risk-Reward Rule – Favor Positive Ratios
Whenever I take a trade, I always want my gains to be bigger than my losses.
To do this I set my risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
This means, I am only willing to risk one in order to bank two times more.
Do this enough times and you’ll almost guarantee your potential gains will outweigh your potential losses in the medium term.
And having a risk to reward of at least 1:2 means you’ll factor in the costs, brokerage and other fees with your trade.
RULE #12: The 20% Golden Rule – Diversify and Limit Exposure
You always need to have capital within your portfolio.
Not only to trade, but to protect the current trades that you’re holding at any one time.
So this rule is golden.
Here’s how it works. I never expose more than 20% of my total investment portfolio to trading.
This means, I’ll always be holding at least 80% of my portfolio.
Remember, with margin (leverage) trading, it magnifies gains and losses.
Having only 20% of your total investment portfolio will help you to always have more money in your portfolio to account for more trades, losses, costs and for you to diversify and manage your risk better.
RULE #13: The Hedgehog Rule – Balance Long and Short Positions
I love this rule.
In trading you can buy (go long) when the market moves up.
Or you can sell (go short) when the market moves down.
But sometimes, you might feel you’re over exposed to the long side even though the market is moving up.
So instead you can hedge your positions by balancing longs and shorts.
If the market turns down, then at least you’ll have some shorts in the mix to make up for the losses with your longs that are going against you.
I always try to avoid overcommitting to a single direction.
This way I am able to protect my portfolio from sudden market reversals.
RULE #14: Multi-Account Rule – Separate Markets
I find markets all move differently and yield results at different rates.
So what I like to do is open different trading account for different markets (e.g., Forex and stocks).
I like to track and trade Forex for one account and stocks for another.
You’ll find if you trade too many different markets in one account, it will most likely skew the portfolio and your track record.
This is because of the way they all move sporadically from each other.
So, diversify your portfolios across different asset classes and markets to manage your risk.
Final words.
I trust this 14 Risk management Rules Lesson will help guide you to your trading goals.
If there’s one thing you should do is print, or save this guide and keep them close for reference.
These rules will undoubtedly prove valuable in your trading endeavors.
Why you might STRUGGLE Trading - 9 REASONSTrading is the most simple and hardest career you can have.
There are simple tasks to take but difficult to mentally handle.
Success requires discipline, strategy, and often, a good amount of experience.
However, there are many reasons why people may struggle to achieve profitability in their trading endeavours.
Here are some common pitfalls that might be the reasons why you are struggling as a trader. can
Lack of a Defined System
A trading system involves a set of rules that dictate entry, exit, and money management criteria for your trades.
If you’re trading without a proven and winning system, you’re basically gambling.
You really need to find what works for you both mentally and financially.
Either you can experiment with different trading strategies.
Or you can adopt proven systems that you believe with what will work for you.
It’s crucial to find a strategy that suits your risk tolerance, investment goals, and lifestyle.
Inability to Handle Losses
Everyone experiences losses in trading.
You’ll take losing trades on a daily, weekly and monthly basis…
If you cannot handle losses, you may find yourself holding onto losing positions for too long.
You might feel you’re stuck in a rut.
You might feel like a loser yourself.
So, this needs to stop.
Start treating trading as a business.
Accept that losses as the costs of trading.
Don’t dwell on losses. Accept them, embrace them and learn from them.
Get Rich Quick Mentality
Many people get the excitement that trading Is something that will bring bread in the short term.
This cannot be farther from the truth.
You need to get out of this “get rich quick” mentality.
Establish medium to long term goals and work at it.
Make sure, your expectations are realistic and be patient.
Set achievable goals and concentrate on slow, steady progress rather than risky, high-return trades.
Lack of Experience
Like any other skill, trading requires experience to master.
If you’re new to trading, you may lack the knowledge needed to navigate the market effectively.
To gain experience, start small and learn as you go.
Maybe even start off with a demo and paper account.
This way you’ll be able to practice without risking real money.
Read books, take courses, watch from experienced traders. Learn from their mistakes, so you can avoid paying high school fees.
You ignore the Big Market Trends
Before you trade, do yourself a favour.
Get to know the market environment.
If the price is heading up, look for longs (buys).
If the price is heading down, look for shorts (sells).
Trends can give important insights into potential future market movements.
You’ll feel more in-tune with the markets when you know their overall directions.
Letting Emotions Rule
Fear, greed and ego are the enemies of profitable trading.
If you feel any of the three dangerous traits, you’ll make decisions based on emotions.
This will give you a gambling mentality of thrill, despair and denial.
Cut out the emotions and stick to a more mechanical approach.
Be like the market not like a human.
Fail to Diversify
You need to know how to mitigate risks.
One market probably won’t make the cut.
If it moves sideways for months on end, you’ll miss out on powerful opportunities elsewhere.
So, diversify with different stocks, indices, commodities, Forex and cryptos.
Also, don’t be over exposed too long with buys or too short with sells.
Find the balance, because markets can change direction very quickly.
Not Keeping a Trading Journal
You need to get yourself a log book.
A trading journal will help you to keep track of your strategies, successes, and failures.
It will also guide you with the gameplan you need with a better chance of succeeding.
Know what you can gain, lose and how long you can go through potential drawdowns (downturns).
The past data might not indicate future results, but it can give you a likelihood of what is to come for your trading, markets and your portfolio.
Lack of Discipline and integration
Discipline is sticking it out.
Doing what you need to follow your trading plan.
No matter how good or bad the market is, when the trade lines up you need to JUST TAKE THE TRADE.
And no matter how your feeling on the day, you need to do what it takes to succeed.
Integration is similar but it’s actually adapting it whole heartedly into your life.
This is where you don’t’ think twice.
This is where you wake up and trade like brushing your teeth.
If you suck at trading, you need to pinpoint why. Work on it, improve and evolve.
Let’s sum the reasons why you might SUCK at trading up one more time….
Lack of a Defined System
Inability to Handle Losses
Get Rich Quick Mentality
Lack of Experience
You ignore the Big Market Trends
Letting Emotions Rule
Fail to Diversify
Not Keeping a Trading Journal
Lack of Discipline and integration
UPDATE: JSE ALSI 40 - A break in price is imminentHere is the update with the ALSI 40...
It seems to be in a tighter range with the resistance (short term downside)
and the support from the Symmetrical Triangle since Dec 2022.
We will be watching these levels carefully and will look to hedge positions as we are heavily short at the moment.
At first glance, it shows that the price action is indeed more bearish right now with the resistance line in tact. And as there has been a bounce already, we might see a bit of consolidation before the next big move.
We'll be watching the Americas as well, to help give some type of leading direction...
Happy Monday and trade well.
The Raging Bull on a Falling Roller coaster - JSE in the nutshelAbout sums up the JSE right now...
📉📈 The JSE ALSI 40: Where Sideways Meets Rollercoaster! 🎢🐂🐻
Hey there, fellow traders and market enthusiasts! 📊💰
Have you been following the JSE ALSI 40's wild dance since December 2022?
It's like watching a cat chasing its tail, but with more financial suspense! 😅🐱
Picture this: The ALSI 40 chart looks like a DJ's soundwave, with highs and lows that leave us all scratching our heads. 🤨📈📉
It's as if the market decided to throw a never-ending party, but with a catch – every time it cranks up the music and heads for the stars, it suddenly crashes back down like it remembered it had a curfew! 🎶💥
And guess what? Just when you think the party's over and everyone's heading for the exits, the market pulls a 180 and starts the bull run again! 🐂🚀
But here's the kicker – when you finally give in to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and join the party, that's when the bearish bear shows up, and it's not in the mood for hugs! 🐻📉
So, what's a trader to do in this wild ride? 🤔
Here's the deal:
💰 Money Management is Key:
It's time to be the disciplined partygoer. Risk management should be your DJ, controlling your moves on the dance floor. Allocate a smaller portion of your portfolio to each trade to weather those unexpected downturns.
🚫 Ego? Leave It at the Door:
Ego is that party crasher no one likes.
Don't let your ego dictate your trades. Remember, even the best traders face losses. Stay humble, stick to your strategy, and cut your losses when it's time to bail.
📆 Patience is a Virtue:
Keep your dancing shoes on, because sooner or later, the market will decide on a direction.
It might seem like a chaotic dance floor now, but trends emerge eventually, and when they do, you want to be there when the music starts playing.
So, fellow traders, while the JSE ALSI 40 keeps doing its sideways cha-cha, let's stay nimble, manage our risks, and be ready to groove with the raging bull when it charges or stay steady with the bear when it takes its turn. 🕺💃
It's all part of the game, and in the world of trading, the only constant is change!
Let's keep our eyes on the charts, our hearts in check, and our portfolios ready for whatever direction the market decides to sway next. 📊💼