S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 📉⚠️ S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 🔍🧠
Following up on the video I just posted , I had to share this updated chart of the VOO ETF (Vanguard S&P 500) and US500 Index , now that both are testing key resistance levels.
On the left: AMEX:VOO has reached the very top of a multi-year ascending channel—a zone that has historically triggered sharp corrections. The level at 590.85 marks a major resistance zone.
On the right: The US500 Index is showing a similar technical overextension, trading just under 6,450, with 5,928.25 as the nearest support below.
🎯 Technicals at play:
VOO could retrace toward 526.17 and potentially 465.72, both of which are solid technical supports within this channel.
This setup doesn't mean panic—but it does argue for caution, especially after such an extended run.
🧠 And yes, the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) continues to point toward an overheated market . While it's not a timing tool, it adds macro weight to the technical signals.
In the video, I also touched on:
Taking profits on NASDAQ:NVDA after a near-perfect technical rejection at target.
Reviewing Rolls Royce nearing upper channel resistance.
Gold and Silver at inflection points—likely to be impacted if equities begin to unwind.
Rotational potential into Bitcoin and Ethereum, which may benefit from macro shifts.
This is how I trade: respect structure, stay proactive, and prepare before the move—not after. Let me know how you’re positioning or if you’re sitting on hands waiting for a dip.
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
US500.F trade ideas
Here is WHY SP500 WILL SINK and you should SELL!I already made a techincal analysis on SP500 last week. Here i am again trying to warn you. I have a big convinction that SP500 will sink, and pretty hard. Lot of techincal indicator are showing weakness on the daily timeframe (RSI, MACD, AO, OBV), the political situation is getting complicated day by day, and our frind Powell will proably help to start this big moves soon. Checking the seasonality, it's also clear that a drop like that isn't new, and SP500 is following perfectly the average of previous years, and if history is going to repeat (and usually happens) we will see an exit liquidity from the markets in coming days. If you don't want to go short, at least consider to keep in safe your profits with the longs.
What do you guys think about SP500? Are you bullish on it? Let me know in the commnts, i will be happy to read your ideas!
S&P500 uptrend pause supported at 6355The S&P 500 slipped -0.12% after initially rising +0.3%, as Fed Chair Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts dampened sentiment. The metals and mining sector dragged the index lower, falling nearly -4% after the U.S. announced surprise copper tariff details—excluding refined metal until 2027—leading to a sharp -20% drop in COMEX copper futures.
However, market sentiment rebounded overnight, driven by strong tech earnings. Meta surged +11.5% post-market on upbeat Q3 guidance and rising AI-driven ad revenues, while Microsoft rose over +8% thanks to better-than-expected Azure cloud growth and a $30 billion AI infrastructure investment.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term pressure from the Fed’s tone and commodity weakness, strong AI-driven earnings from major tech firms are likely to support a positive bias for the S&P 500 in the near term, especially in the tech-heavy growth segments. Broader gains may depend on upcoming inflation data and Fed clarity.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6470
Resistance Level 2: 6500
Resistance Level 3: 6545
Support Level 1: 6355
Support Level 2: 6315
Support Level 3: 6282
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500 Hits New Highs but Fed Caution Limits MomentumSPX500 Overview
Market Context:
The Fed's reluctance to commit to a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting has forced markets to reassess their outlook. This hesitation pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher in late trading, weighing on equities.
As it stands, the probability of a rate cut appears to be pushed further out on the timeline, introducing short-term headwinds for risk assets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 printed a new all-time high and maintains bullish momentum after stabilizing above the previous ATH at 6427. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish continuation toward 6454 remains likely, with a further extension to 6480 possible.
A bearish correction would only be confirmed by a break below 6415.
Resistance Levels: 6454, 6480
Support Levels: 6415, 6389
S&P Market Update – Signs of a Short-Term Correction?Although the S&P remains in an uptrend, recent price action suggests that momentum may be fading.
📉 Key Observations:
A Key Day Reversal occurred at 6409 – a potential warning signal.
We're seeing RSI divergence: price made a new high, but RSI didn’t follow suit.
The market is grinding higher, but without conviction.
📊 What to Watch:
The 15-day EMA, currently at 6317, is acting as near-term support. A close below this level could trigger a short-term correction.
Initial downside targets: 6147–6100, the previous highs from late 2024 and early 2025.
✅ To negate this bearish bias, the market would need to break above 6409 and continue higher with stronger momentum.
Stay alert — the technicals are flashing red flags. Always manage risk accordingly.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Smoothie in One Hand, Chart in the Other: Your Vacation ManualSome traders bring a beach read. Others bring their TradingView charts.
It’s the heat of the summer and we figured, why not take it easy with a breeze of lightweight lines to pair with your mezcal espresso martini? Let’s talk about how to relax while still watching the markets.
🏄♂️ Market Never Sleeps… But You Should
Vacations are supposed to be about unplugging, but for traders, that’s just code for “I’ll switch to the app instead.”
And we don’t blame you. With all that’s going on — US-EU tariff deal, stocks at record highs, and Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD outperforming Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in a monster July run — it’s only natural for market participants to be hooked at this time.
But watch for those signs of getting overly attached. Studies show performance suffers when you're overcooked — like your last scalp trade on Powell Day. So yes, that mojito matters. Just don’t place a leveraged position on a pool float.
📅 Timing the Market… and Your Booking
Let’s talk timing. The pros know not to schedule getaways during Nonfarm Payrolls week or FOMC decision day. (Unless your idea of relaxing is explaining yield curves to your kids on a ferry across lake Como.)
Instead, try planning your time off during historically low-volatility periods. Summer often sees volume dry up like your skin without sunscreen. Think August’s fairly dry weeks — when even the algorithms seem to be on holiday. As always, consult with the Economic Calendar to know when these are.
Bonus tip: if you’re flying and you wanna stay wired in, go for premarket or after-hours shifts. Nothing says “seasoned trader” like placing an order while the flight attendant gathers everyone’s attention for the safety demo.
🧴 SPF 50 and the S&P 500: Know Your Risk Exposure
In these scorchers outside, you wouldn’t step out without sunscreen, right? But would you let your positions roast unsupervised?
Use stop losses like you use sunblock: generously and repeatedly. Even better — scale back. Summer’s thin liquidity (and other summer trading traps ) can turn minor market moves into full-on tidal waves. No one wants to explain to their friends why they lost 40% of their portfolio during a snorkeling trip.
Adequate position sizing is your beach umbrella. It doesn’t stop the storm, but it’ll stop the burn.
🧭 Wi-Fi, but Make It Secure
Public Wi-Fi is great for scrolling memes, not executing trades. One accidental login from a beachside café in Mykonos and boom — your brokerage account may become a group project.
Trading from your vacation spot shouldn’t be a flex (no matter how much you want to look cool to the bunch of people around you). Focus on your game, trade in silence, and bask in sunlight and success.
☀️ Pack Light, Trade Lighter
The golden rule? If you’re not at your desk, don’t trade like you are.
Scale back positions, minimize leverage, and don’t try to outperform the market while someone’s kid is throwing a beach ball at your head. This is a maintenance phase, not a moonshot month.
Think: protect capital, avoid drawdowns, maybe sneak in a swing trade between sunscreen applications.
📲 Must-Have Apps for Sand-and-Screen Trading
You’re not bringing a full setup, but your phone can still do the heavy lifting. Load it with TradingView (obviously), your broker, ideally paired with TradingView, and a solid news feed . Bonus points for noise-canceling headphones that can drown out both market panic and crying toddlers.
Set up push notifications smartly — only the alerts you actually need. You don’t want your wrist buzzing every time Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA moves 0.1%.
Question for the road : What’s your best summer trade… and was it worth checking your phone at dinner to place it?
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPY back in the trendlineFrom a technical stand point, the expectation was that the trend line will be respected and sellers will force price to close back inside.
Today's daily close can ignite further downward movement which can align with August seasonality that typically sees Indices pull back within this period.
Target still remains 6108 at previous ATH
29-07-2025This chart contains my analysis and key observations for today's trading session. All drawings and indicators reflect my current view of the market as of today. The purpose of this publication is to keep a record of my analysis and review it later for learning and improvement. No investment advice is provided.
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout)Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A Proven Strategy for Intraday Traders
In the fast-paced world of intraday trading, simplicity and structure can often outperform complexity. One such time-tested strategy is the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) — a method favored by both discretionary and system traders for its clarity and adaptability.
📌 What is ORB (Opening Range Breakout)?
ORB refers to the price range (high and low) formed during the first few minutes (typically 5, 15, or 30) after the market opens. Traders look for a breakout above or below this range, anticipating strong momentum in that direction.
🧠 Why ORB Works
Volume Surge: The opening minutes see high institutional activity, creating genuine demand/supply signals.
Market Psychology: ORB captures trader sentiment as news digests overnight and is priced in at the open.
Defined Risk: The high/low of the range becomes a natural stop-loss area, allowing clean setups.
✅ Entry and Exit Rules for the ORB Strategy
Having a consistent framework helps you avoid emotional decisions. Here’s how you can structure your trades using ORB:
🔹 Entry Criteria:
Timeframe: Define your ORB window — e.g., first 15-minute candle.
Bullish Breakout Entry:
Enter long when price closes above the ORB high with volume confirmation.
Bearish Breakdown Entry:
Enter short when price closes below the ORB low with volume confirmation.
⚠️ Avoid entering on the first breakout candle. Wait for a close and retest, or a strong momentum candle for higher confidence.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement:
For Long Trades: Place SL just below ORB low
For Short Trades: Place SL just above ORB high
🔹 Target/Exit Options:
Fixed RR Target: Aim for 1.5–2x your risk as initial target.
Mid/Outer Bands: Use indicator-drawn breakout bands (like those in LuxAlgo script) as profit zones.
Time-based Exit: Close position by end of session if price stalls or consolidates.
Trailing Exit: Trail your stop behind higher lows (long) or lower highs (short) after breakout.
📊 ORB in Action
You can explore this ready-to-use TradingView indicator to visualize ORB levels in real-time:
🔍 Indicator: Opening Range with Breakouts & Targets (by @LuxAlgo) Thanks to @LuxAlgo team to make this indicator available.
🛠️ Highlights:
Automatically marks the opening range
Plots breakout zones and targets
Ideal for intraday strategies
Works across indices, forex, and crypto
📓 Integrating ORB into Your Trading Journal App
If you're journaling ORB trades, consider logging:
✅ Symbol & timeframe
✅ ORB range (high/low)
✅ Breakout direction (long/short)
✅ Entry time & price
✅ Exit reason (target hit, SL hit, time-based exit)
✅ Notes: market sentiment, news drivers, volume confirmation
Over time, this data will help you:
🔍 Identify which assets respect ORB best
📈 Tune your RR ratio and stop placements
🧠 Reduce decision fatigue by automating setups
🧪 Want to Automate It?
Our trading journal app is ready with 🧠 AI-based journaling for feedback and refinement
🎯 Final Thoughts
ORB is a classic — not because it’s flashy, but because it offers structure, risk control, and repeatability. Whether you're a price action purist or using smart indicators, ORB can provide a disciplined edge — especially when integrated into a journaling and feedback loop.
📌 Start small. Track results. Tune your edge.
SPX500 Awaits Fed – Key Support at 6388 in FocusSPX500 Awaits Fed Decision – Breakdown Below 6365 Could Deepen Correction
Following the registration of a new all-time high at the beginning of the week, the price has started to decline. Also, investors await the Federal Reserve's policy statement later today for guidance on the future path of monetary policy.
The price is currently positioned below the 6388 level, which is a key zone in conjunction with the support line at 6365. This area signals the potential for a new downward correction if the price stabilizes below 6365.
A sustained move below 6365, confirmed by a 1H or 4H candle close, would open the door to a sharper decline toward 6341, followed by 6319, both considered critical support zones.
As for the bullish scenario: if the price finds support and manages to rebound today, the first step toward recovery would be a breakout above 6388, which may lead to a climb toward 6415. Breaking above 6415 would pave the way to retest the resistance zone at 6427, with the potential to reach a new all-time high at 6454.
Key Levels
• Support: 6365 - 6341 - 6319.
• Resistance: 6388 - 6415 - 6427.
S&P 500 as expensive as at the end of 2021 in valuation terms !Two weeks ago, I shared a technical analysis of the S&P 500 across all timeframes. This analysis outlines price targets for the end of 2025 based on technical and fundamental criteria. You can revisit this analysis by clicking the first chart below.
WARNING: A major bullish target I previously mentioned is close to being reached—6,475 points on the S&P 500 futures contract. The market may soon enter a consolidation phase.
Given this week's packed fundamentals, it's wise to start locking in your gains by moving up your stop-loss levels—especially as the S&P 500 has now returned to its end-2021 valuation peak.
Click on the table below to access details on this week's significant fundamental developments:
1. Caution: The S&P 500 has reached its end-2021 valuation record!
While technical market analysis is important, valuation metrics are even more so. The S&P 500 has just reached its previous valuation peak from the end of 2021—historically the starting point of the 2022 bear market. While the current macro context is different, this level could trigger a short-term market pause.
Chart showing S&P 500 valuation via the CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE):
2. S&P 500 seasonality is weaker in August and bearish in September
Another cautionary factor is seasonality. A statistical look at average S&P 500 performance by month highlights a weaker period in August and a typically negative one in September.
In summary, technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis all point to securing gains as we approach August/September—without questioning the underlying long-term uptrend.
Chart showing S&P 500 seasonality since 1960:
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Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher than ever. Crash incoming??The stock market is now more expensive than ever.
Some people are calling the top, saying that the market is overbought and too high.
There are indicators that show that the market is overheated, but NO ONE KNOWS whether it's going to crash next week or continue running up for months.
Since April, Nasdaq has gained 40%, which is a lot. Congrats if you bought some QLD and TQQQ back in April when I posted about it.
SP:SPX : All-time high. NASDAQ:NDX : All-time high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD : All-time high. TVC:GOLD : All-time high HOME PRICES ( ECONOMICS:USSFHP ): All-time high. Sounds a bit like a bubble.
The S&P 500’s market cap now equals 28x real disposable personal income — a record.
The stock market Shiller PE ratio is at its highest in 20 years.
Nasdaq companies, especially the MAG7, are strongly outperforming small-cap companies. The last time this happened at this speed, we had the dot-com crash.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index.
So, saying this, is the market going to crash?
I don't know, but I know that it's more likely to crash now than it was 3 months ago. It might continue running higher, too, as the FED is expected to cut rates. Really, no one knows. 😊
Here's what I'm doing:
I trimmed down some overpriced stocks from my portfolio: Lemonade, Coupang, Shopify, and Crowdstrike
I trimmed down some of my crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum
I stopped DCA'ing into leveraged ETFs
I'm accumulating cash
I'm still investing (added more healthcare stocks to the portfolio)
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the swing high resistance.
Pivot: 6,334.93
1st Support: 6,292.36
1st Resistance: 6,420.86
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SPX preparing to sweep liquidity around the 6200 level.Based on my analysis, the #SPX has printed a reversal engulfing candle, which could lead to a period of consolidation. The most probable target appears to be the liquidity pool around the 6200 level.
However, this outlook becomes invalid if the daily candle closes above 6410—the current (today) session high.
As always, conduct your due diligence. Technical analysis offers a probabilistic perspective, not certainty.