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W Pattern In SPX/USD Good day or night fellow traders and followers! I see a W pattern on the 4hr chart in SPX/USD. Who wants to make around 176 points? I know I do so if price can break out over the break-line @ 6,691.6 then it's going to 6868.9 area like it or not, as it looks like Institutional buying coming in. Follow the rules wait for 4hr chart to show price clearing the break-line on a 4hr candle close before going long. Don't bother with chop if it occurs. Waiting is the stress free way to insure direction. Best of luck in all your trades $$$
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Trade-Farmer
SPX500 | HULL MA & Fibo Confluence Setting Up the Move!🎯 SPX500: The "Polite Thief" Strategy - Stealing Profits Like a Gentleman 🎩💰 📊 Market Overview Asset: SPX500 (S&P 500 Index CFD) Trade Type: Swing/Day Trade Opportunity Bias: Bullish 🐂 Strategy Style: Multi-Layer Entry (The "Thief Method") 🔍 Technical Setup The Plan: We're eyeing a bullish confirmation with a clean retest/pullback at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, aligned beautifully with our HULL Moving Average. This confluence zone is screaming "buy the dip" louder than your portfolio manager at a market crash! 📈 🎯 Entry Strategy Options: Option 1: The "Polite Thief" Multi-Layer Approach Instead of going all-in like it's a Vegas buffet, we're using calculated limit orders: 📍 Layer 1: 6620 📍 Layer 2: 6640 📍 Layer 3: 6660 📍 Layer 4: 6680 Feel free to add more layers based on your account size and risk appetite! Option 2: Market Execution Jump in at any current price level if the setup confirms during live hours. 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss: 6580 ⚠️ Disclaimer: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OG's), this is MY stop loss based on MY analysis. You're the captain of your own ship! 🚢 Set your risk parameters according to YOUR comfort level and account size. Risk management is YOUR responsibility. 💎 Profit Target Target Zone: 6860 This level represents our "Electric Shock Wall" 🔌⚡ - a confluence of: Strong historical resistance Overbought territory potential Bull trap zone (where late entries get caught) Exit Strategy Note: I'm not your financial advisor! 💼 When you see green, secure those gains at YOUR discretion. The market doesn't care about our targets - take profit when YOU feel comfortable! 🌐 Related Pairs to Watch Keep your eyes on these correlated instruments: 📈 AMEX:SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - Moves in lockstep with SPX500; watch for volume confirmation 📈 NASDAQ:QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) - Tech-heavy index; bullish momentum here supports SPX strength 📈 AMEX:DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Broader market sentiment indicator 📈 TVC:VIX (Volatility Index) - Inverse correlation; falling VIX = bullish for equities 💵 TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) - Typically inverse to equities; weakening dollar supports stocks Key Correlation: When tech leads (QQQ pumping), SPX usually follows. Watch for VIX to stay subdued below 15 for sustained bullish momentum. 📝 Key Technical Points ✅ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement acting as dynamic support ✅ HULL Moving Average confluence strengthens the setup ✅ Multi-layer entry reduces average cost and timing risk ✅ Clear risk/reward structure with defined zones ✅ Resistance zone identified for disciplined exits ⚡ The "Thief Strategy" Philosophy We're not robbing the market - we're borrowing profits with permission! 😉 The layered entry approach allows us to build positions like a professional, not gamble like a reckless amateur. Scale in, scale out, and live to trade another day! ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! ⚠️ Final Disclaimer IMPORTANT: This "Thief Style" trading strategy is for educational and entertainment purposes only! 🎪 This is NOT financial advice. I'm sharing my personal analysis and trade ideas - what you do with your money is 100% YOUR decision. Trade at your own risk, manage your own capital, and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always do your own research! 🔍 #SPX500 #SP500 #TradingIdeas #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #FibonacciRetracement #SupportAndResistance #RiskManagement #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #IndexTrading #ThiefStrategy #LayeredEntry #PriceAction #MarketAnalysis #TradingCommunity #ChartAnalysis
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by The-Thief
S&P500 Volatility remains elevated, ahead of earnings resultsMonday’s Rally Recap: The S&P 500 rebounded strongly, recovering over half of Friday’s losses. The main driver was more positive trade rhetoric, with signs the US is open to compromise—softening the tone from Friday’s comments. A secondary boost came from AI optimism, as OpenAI signed a major chip deal with Broadcom (+9.88%), lifting tech sentiment. Current Market Setup: Despite Monday’s gains, S&P 500 futures are down -0.38% this morning, as: US-China tensions escalated again—China sanctioned US units of a Korean shipping giant, a counter to US trade pressure. Market volatility persists, with the dollar and Treasuries rising, and oil pulling back. Government shutdown enters Day 14, disrupting IPO timelines and withholding macroeconomic data, adding uncertainty. Focus Ahead: The start of US earnings season today is crucial: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, and Johnson & Johnson all report. Their results will likely set the tone for Q4 expectations and influence near-term direction. Underneath market movements, there's a sense of longer-term repricing as investors hedge against policy uncertainty and inflation ("debasement trade"). Bottom Line for S&P 500: Volatility remains elevated. Monday’s rebound was fueled by sentiment, but renewed geopolitical risk, lack of macro data, and earnings uncertainty are keeping futures under pressure today. Market likely to trade cautiously until earnings results provide clearer direction. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6680 Resistance Level 2: 6703 Resistance Level 3: 6728 Support Level 1: 6547 Support Level 2: 6522 Support Level 3: 6487 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
US500 (S&P 500) Technical Forecast: At a Critical Crossroad🎯 US500 (S&P 500) Technical Forecast: At a Critical Crossroad The US500 trades at 6,672.1, testing a major technical confluence. Our analysis points to a tense equilibrium between bulls and bears, with the next directional move set for a significant breakout. 📊 Multi-Timeframe Synthesis & Market Structure Daily (Trend Bias): The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish above the 6,600 support (50 EMA & prior resistance break). However, price action is compressing, indicating a loss of momentum and a potential coiling for a volatile move. 4H & 1H (Swing Setup): A potential Double Top pattern is forming, with the neckline near 6,640. The 4H RSI shows a pronounced bearish divergence, signaling weakening buying pressure. This is a primary warning for swing traders. Intraday (15M/5M - Precision): Immediate resistance is firm at 6,690 - 6,700 (psychological level). Support sits at 6,660. A break below 6,660 targets the 6,640 neckline. The 5M Anchored VWAP is capping rallies. 🧠 Key Technical Narratives & Theories Elliott Wave & Wyckoff: The structure from the last low suggests we may be in a complex Wave 4 correction or the final phase of a Wyckoff distribution (Upthrust After Distribution). A break below 6,640 would confirm this bearish narrative. Gann & Harmonic Levels: Key Gann support converges with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level near 6,620-6,630. This is the next major target if sellers overpower the 6,640 level. Ichimoku Cloud: On the 4H chart, price is trading within the Kumo (cloud), indicating a loss of trend direction and a battleground between buyers and sellers. ⚖️ Momentum & Volume Assessment RSI (14): Reading 49 on the 1D, neutral but bearish-diverged on lower timeframes. Bollinger Bands (20): Price is hugging the middle band, and bands are squeezing, indicating a period of low volatility that often precedes a high-volatility expansion. Volume & VWAP: Recent attempts to push higher have been on declining volume, a classic sign of a potential bull trap. Anchored VWAP from the recent swing low is now resistance. 🛠️ Trade Plan & Levels Swing Short Idea: Sell on a confirmed break below 6,640 (close on 1H), targeting 6,620 and then 6,580. Stop loss above 6,710. Intraday Short Idea: Sell on a break below 6,660 or rejection from 6,690, targeting 6,640. Stop loss above 6,705. Intraday Long Idea: Only consider buys on a strong break and hold above 6,700 with rising volume, targeting 6,730. Stop loss below 6,680. 💡 The Bottom Line The US500 is showing cracks in its bullish armor. The burden of proof is on the bulls to reclaim 6,700. Until then, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, with a break of 6,640 likely triggering a deeper pullback. Manage risk carefully in this volatile setup. Disclaimer: This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by sunya
S&P 500: TACO Trump or Something More Serious?After a summer of plain sailing for the S&P 500, Friday’s sell-off was the first market wobble we’ve witnessed in some time. Let’s take a look at what this means moving forward… Tariff Turbulence Returns Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats against China sent shockwaves through markets on Friday, triggering the S&P 500’s biggest one-day drop since April. His comments, accusing Beijing of becoming “very hostile” and vowing “massive” tariffs, reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Investors rushed into safe havens, pushing Treasury yields lower and sending gold back toward record highs. The sell-off saw more than four in five stocks in the index finish in the red, bringing an abrupt pause to the market’s recent record-breaking run. But as Wall Street traders know, Trump’s tariff threats don’t always end the way they start. The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or TACO trade has become a familiar playbook for traders who buy the dip after a tariff announcement, then sell the rebound when the president softens his tone. Sure enough, over the weekend Trump hinted at reconciliation, praising President Xi and calling for cooperation. That shift helped US futures rebound early Monday, as investors once again bet that the sell-off might be more bark than bite. The question now is whether this episode follows the usual TACO script or signals something deeper brewing beneath the surface. Bearish Engulfing Shock Sets the Parameters Friday’s daily candle tells the story best. The huge bearish engulfing candle didn’t just erase the prior week’s gains, it wrapped around several days of price action and signalled a sharp shift in sentiment. Its sheer size is significant because range expansion after a calm period often marks a turning point in market psychology. The candle’s lower wick, finding support near the 50-day moving average, shows that buyers did emerge at key trend support, but how price behaves within this range will now define the path forward. US500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The hourly chart shows how that panic played out and how quickly traders have tried to repair the damage. The market found support before gapping higher at Monday’s open, showing a tentative attempt to stabilise. This kind of response often reveals whether a sell-off was a genuine trend reversal or a momentary flush of emotion. If price can keep grinding higher from here and close back above the midpoint of Friday’s engulfing candle, it would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that buyers still have control. However, if the S&P 500 stalls or consolidates in the lower half of that candle’s range, it would be a clear warning that the market’s tone has changed. Sideways price action here would imply that traders are waiting for confirmation rather than chasing rebounds, and that shift in behaviour can often lead to a second leg lower. The size of Friday’s engulfing candle now marks a battleground between short-term buyers and cautious longer-term investors. Whether we see a swift recovery or a slow grind will reveal if this was just another TACO moment or the start of something more meaningful. US500 Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Capitalcom
Major Macroeconomic Data Delayed Due to the US govt ShutdownThe recent shutdown of the U.S. government has triggered a domino effect on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. Due to the temporary closure of several federal agencies — notably the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — a series of crucial statistics have been delayed, making it more difficult to assess the real-time economic situation of the United States. A Severely Disrupted Economic Calendar From early October, several major releases were postponed. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for October 3 was the first casualty and the CPI and PPI inflation indicators on October 15 and 16. These consecutive delays have disoriented financial markets, depriving them of the statistical benchmarks essential to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s decisions. As a result, visibility on inflation, employment, and consumption trends has been significantly reduced, fueling volatility in U.S. equity markets. The Fed in the Dark This disrupted schedule complicates the Fed’s task ahead of its October 29 monetary policy decision, followed by the PCE inflation release on October 31. Without fresh data, FOMC members will have to rely on partial or outdated information to decide on the path of interest rates. This lack of reliable data could lead the institution to adopt a more cautious stance, postponing any major adjustment to its monetary policy. Cascading Effects in the Coming Months — Unless the Shutdown Ends in October The November 7 NFP report and Supreme Court hearings on tariff policies, scheduled for the same week, may also be affected if the shutdown continues. Similarly, November inflation data (CPI, PPI, and PCE) could face further delays, undermining the accuracy of economic forecasts for year-end. Finally, the December releases — notably the December 5 NFP report and the December 10 Fed meeting — could mark a return to calendar normality, provided the affected agencies manage to catch up on lost time. In short, the sooner this shutdown episode ends, the faster the overall publication of macroeconomic figures will return to normal. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
S&P 500 Bear Market in 2026The Stock market is going to send Crypto into a Bear market in 2026. It just broke it's weekly cycle count and it's currently painting a bullish divergence. This means only one thing - we are going into a blow-off top within the next 2 months. We are going to top above 7000 area, and in case we don't have a proper retracement into the Weekly Cycle low within November, we are going to make a blow-off top in December/January. 2026 Year will be profit taking year and the stock market is expected to retrace 20%, while Bitcoin will go down by more than 50%. It's the last leg of the bull and it's time to get allocated in the market.
TVC:SPXShort
by TheStrategyMaster
SPX | Daily Analysis #5Hello and welcome back to DP, **Yesterday’s Review and News** In the previous trading day, the market experienced fluctuations of approximately $118. It initially climbed during the Asian and London sessions. However, during the New York session, the market showed significant downward movement, breaking key support levels and trend lines. Regarding news, the most notable event was the phone call between Trump and Putin, with a scheduled meeting to discuss the Ukraine conflict. The price approached the 6720 level, but sellers prevented the index from reaching and breaking the last pivot point, causing a sharp decline. The price broke through the important candle we mentioned earlier and eventually stopped at 6540. **1H – 4H Time Frame** Today, the market showed weakness during the Asian session (breaking the previously mentioned candle) and the early London session. However, by mid-day in London, the price found support and began moving upward. If buyers maintain this support, the price could potentially reach the 6700 level. **Trade Idea** At this time, the best strategy is to wait for the price to approach the 6700 area and then consider selling the index to target lower levels. - For informational purposes only – not financial advice. © DIBAPRISM - Issued: Amir D. Kohn
OANDA:SPX500USD
by DibaPrism
US500 OutlookFundamental Analysis The US500 remains firmly supported by robust large-cap earnings and underlying resilience in the technology and consumer sectors. The index's significant one-year gain of 26% reflects strong corporate balance sheets and continued optimism for economic stability. Recent upward momentum is fueled by strong bank earnings and persistent hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, near-term sentiment is challenged by elevated volatility stemming from renewed US-China trade tensions and the ongoing government shutdown, alongside warnings that the market is "stretched" in valuation. Technical Analysis US 500 closed above 6,650, confirming a continued long term bullish momentum. However, short term technical sentiment is mixed as the index struggles to sustain rallies above its EMA21, which is acting as a cap. Immediate resistance is clustered near the recent all-time highs 6,765. Key support is identified at 6,600 down to the critical downside buffer at 6,550. A breach of the 6,550 support level could signal a definitive end to the current uptrend. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPX
by WiseLeoTrading
Market Pulse: Cracks in the Bull?We kick off the week with the S&P still riding its two-month uptrend, supported by the 55-day MA at 6541. But signs of fatigue are emerging. 📉 Amazon is slipping below its 200-day MA 📊 NVIDIA’s recent high at 195.62 hovers near the 197 Fibonacci extension and the 200 psychological level Technically, the uptrend holds—and if 6765 the recent high breaks, the bull may charge on. If the 55-day MA erodes, brace for a correction. 🔍 Keep chart levels in focus 📌 Tighten stops ⚠️ Not investment advice #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500 #Amazon #NVIDIA #MarketUpdate #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement #Fibonacci #BullMarket #ChartWatch #FinanceTwitter #LinkedInFinance
SP:SPX
by The_STA
Bigger correction down for SPX500USDHi traders, I called the top in my outlook of last week for SPX500USD. After a small correction last week it went up one more time to make a new ATH. After that it dropped. Now it started the bigger correction down. So next week we could see a correction up and more downside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction up and a change in orderflow to bearish on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Elliott wavecount and patterns, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOKS&P 500 - GRAND MARKET OUTLOOK BY FIBCOS This analysis integrates multiple layers of market interpretation, combining Elliott Wave Theory across Supercycle , Macro , Micro , and Sub-Micro degrees with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , price action behavior, and Fibonacci retracements/extensions to project the S&P 500 ’s long-term trajectory. It captures how institutional capital rotates through accumulation and distribution phases, aligned with macroeconomic cycles, policy shifts, and investor sentiment. Each wave is grounded in historical and forward-looking fundamental events—from post-war booms to financial crises to the current AI-driven tech surge. The use of Fibonacci ratios (1.618, 3.618, 5.618) provides mathematical confluence for wave targets, while price structure confirms the ongoing impulsive behavior. Altogether, it creates a cohesive, multi-dimensional forecast expected to culminate in a Supercycle Wave (III) top around Q1 2029 , with an S&P 500 target between 20,000(20K). 🌀 Supercycle Wave (III) — The Final Ascent (1942–2029*) 🌍 SUPERCYCLE STRUCTURE: The Multi-Generational Bull We are inside Supercycle Wave (III) which began in 1942 and is unfolding in 5 Macro Impulse Waves . Each of these macro waves has further Micro and Sub-Micro waves. As of 2025, we're in the final stretch of this grand cycle, specifically: 👉 Sub-Micro Wave ③ of Micro Wave ⑤ of Macro Wave ⑤ of Supercycle Wave (III) Final top expected in Q1 2029 , around the 20,000 (20K) zone 📍 🧭 MACRO WAVE TIMELINE (Supercycle III) 🔹 Macro Wave ① (1942–1968): 🌟 Post-War Industrial Renaissance Fundamentals: WWII victory → economic dominance Baby boom, suburbanization, auto and housing expansion Bretton Woods system established USD supremacy 💵 Smart Money Insight: Institutional capital rotated from war manufacturing into consumer goods, construction, and tech foundations Price Action: Strong impulsive move with clean higher highs/lows Fibonacci Insight: Laid the base for 1.618 extension targets Ends in 1968 with rising inflation and Vietnam drag 🔹 Macro Wave ② (1968–1974): 🌪️ Stagflation Storm Fundamentals: Vietnam War expenditures Gold standard broken (1971 Nixon shock) Oil embargo, inflation > growth Price Action: Deep correction, volatile chop, broad distribution SMC Insight: Institutions exited cyclicals, quietly accumulated future outperformers (tech, defense) Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Super Cycle Wave ii 🔹 Macro Wave ③ (1974–2000): 🚀 Tech & Financialization Explosion Fundamentals: Reaganomics & deregulation PC revolution, Internet birth, globalization 🌐 Explosion in derivatives, S&P futures, ETFs SMC: Institutions accumulated during 70s lows, fueled tech IPO boom (Apple, Microsoft) Price Action: Violent rallies with accelerating slope — classic 3rd wave behavior Fibonacci: Extended well beyond 4.618% of Macro ① & ② — true power wave 🔹 Macro Wave ④ (2000–2009): 🌊 Dot-Com + Financial Crisis Correction Fundamentals: Dot-Com bust ➜ $5T in lost value 9/11 shocks & Iraq war GFC: Housing bubble → global banking collapse Price Action: Double top structure (2000 & 2007), multi-leg correction SMC Insight: Smart money cashed out in 2000 and 2007; bought again heavily in March 2009 Structure: WXY complex correction, bottoming with V-shape GFC recovery Fibonacci: 0.236% retracement of Macro ② 🔶 MACRO WAVE ⑤ (2009–2029): 🔥 The Final Ascent – AI, Liquidity & Euphoria This is the final macro wave of Supercycle (III), and it subdivides into 5 Micro Impulse Waves. We are now in Micro Wave ⑤ , which itself contains Sub-Micro Waves 1–5. 🔷 Micro Wave ① (2009–Apr 2010): 🪙 The Bounce from Oblivion Fundamentals: Fed QE1 💉, bailouts (TARP), 0% rates Fear of deflation flipped to hunt for yield Price Action: Clean V-bottom, shallow pullbacks SMC: Institutions were loading REITs, tech, and banks post-GFC carnage 🔷 Micro Wave ② (Apr 2010–Jun 2010): 🩻 Flash Crash Flush Fundamentals: Euro debt scare, Greece bailout, volatility spike Price Action: Sharp correction, liquidity vacuum Fibonacci: Textbook 0.236% retracement SMC: Stop hunt phase — liquidity grab before next leg 🔷 Micro Wave ③ (Jun 2010–2018): 🚀 Passive Investing Boom Fundamentals: QE2, QE3 → massive central bank asset inflation Apple, Amazon, Google explode in earnings and valuation ETF revolution = automated capital flows Price Action: Relentless trend with low volatility Fibonacci: 2.618+ extension of Wave ① SMC: Institutions began multi-year hold strategies (FANGM), volatility sellers emerged 🔷 Micro Wave ④ (2018–2020): ⚠️ Volatility & COVID Shock Fundamentals: Rate hikes (2018), trade war (US-China) COVID black swan — global shutdown, crude oil collapse (went negative!) Price Action: Massive drop with record velocity (VIX > 80) SMC: Panic selling, smart money accumulation March 2020 🔵 MICRO WAVE ⑤ (2020–2029): 📈 The Final Climb Begins This is where we are now. This Micro Wave ⑤ is subdividing into: 🟢 Sub-Micro Wave ① (Mar 2020 – Nov 2021): 💹 Stimulus Mania Fundamentals: Unlimited QE, COVID relief checks Crypto/NFT mania, meme stocks (GME/AMC) Retail explosion via Robinhood & Reddit Price Action: Parabolic rally, overbought signals SMC: Institutions faded retail euphoria mid-2021 🟡 Sub-Micro Wave ② (Nov 2021 – Oct 2022): 🔻 Inflation Reckoning Fundamentals: CPI > 9%, Fed hikes aggressively Yield curve inversion, tech meltdown Price Action: 0.236% retracement SMC: Smart money rotated into energy, defense, and value stocks during panic Sentiment : Retail fled, fear extreme — perfect accumulation zone 🔴 Sub-Micro Wave ③ (Oct 2022 – Est. 2027): ⚡ AI Supercycle Ignites CURRENT WAVE IN PROGRESS Fundamentals: AI revolution (ChatGPT, LLMs, Robotics, Automation) Cloud, semiconductors, defense, biotech surge Fiscal policy dominance, wars & tech race 🧠 Price Action: Clean impulse structure Shallow pullbacks, breakout-retest continuation SMC: Institutions aggressively long AI/Defense (Nvidia, Palantir, defense contractors) Liquidity injections in dips, stealth breakouts Fibonacci Target: 3.618 extension ~11,200 Expected to peak in 2026 🟠 Sub-Micro Wave ④ (Est. 2027-2028): 🧯 Last Shakeout Before the Climax Expect: Profit-taking, geopolitical panic, credit stress Retest of broken trendline or previous resistance zone Fibonacci : Retrace 0.236–0.382 of Wave ③ SMC: Final accumulation before blow-off top 🔵 Sub-Micro Wave ⑤ (Est. 2028–Q1 2029): 🚨 Blow-Off Top: 20,000 Target Fundamentals: Peak optimism: “AI replaces everything”, euphoria Retail mania, influencer ETFs Fed/central banks possibly easing again to avoid slowdown Price Action: Parabolic, low pullbacks, extreme momentum, RSI divergence, volume climax SMC: Massive institutional distribution — quiet selling into strength Target: ~20,000 (5.618 of Wave ①), final top of Supercycle (III) 🛑 What Comes After? SUPERCYCLE WAVE (IV): 🔻 Decade-Long Reset (2029–2040?) Major correction, potentially multi-decade sideways or secular bear Catalyst? AI bust, geopolitical war, credit collapse "Stay focused on structure, not emotions." - FIBCOS 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveTheory #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
SP:SPXLong
by fibcos
1
SPX | Daily Analysis #2Hello and welcome back to DP, **Review and News** Yesterday, at the start of the week, the SPX opened with a significant upside gap, largely driven by a tweet from former President Trump on Friday. His statement—"Don’t worry about China and Xi, they don’t want a recession for their economy, and neither do we"—helped restore investor confidence, pushing them back into the market, particularly into this index. However, shortly after, Trump reiterated that tariffs would still be implemented on November 1st, which is expected to have a considerable impact. This morning, President Xi reaffirmed his stance, saying, "China will fight to the end, but the doors for negotiation are always open." As seen on the chart, the price has moved within a range between $6,681 and $6,584. **4-Hour Price Action** As indicated by the chart, the price range between $6,681 and $6,584 seems to be holding steady for now. One scenario suggests the market is in a consolidation phase. The shape of this consolidation will depend on the future performance of the market. It could either form a diagonal pattern or remain within a box range, as investors battle against short-sellers. Using Fibonacci retracement, it appears the price may extend to the 0.236 line at $6,706. If this Fibonacci level holds, the market could face a downturn, potentially targeting the next support level indicated by the red box below the chart. **Trend Analysis** As shown, the trend illustrates a clear relationship with price movement. The price opened above the trend line, then expanded below the next trend level, showing respect for it. This movement suggests that downward pressure remains, with the market's direction depending on the break of the current trend line. Personally , I believe the market may head south, but it won’t be a straightforward move. The decline could be unpredictable and happen quickly, or it may unfold in more gradual, choppy moves. One thing to be certain of is that retail traders are betting against the market, mainly due to the gap being filled. However, caution is advised when trading this index. It’s important to wait for confirmation before making any decisions.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by DibaPrism
1
Crash ... 10 % and up 6760 is very important Pivot that price can`t pass for many reasons : its 720 GANN angle since the uptrend begins in apr 2025 @ 4840 and it comes with upper trend that contain the price and face it down evey time it touch Now . its matter of time before the movie start This is how the big whales punish you when you trade in the markets Gold at a record high The dollar is also rising Bonds are rising Political tensions are increasing Inflation is rising Unemployment is increasing Government shutdown High tariffs Yet the market hits a new record every other day by day Patience is a virtue Wait for a 10-15% crash before the end of the year After they wipe out the sellers, as they always do have a sit , have a kit kat
SP:SPXShort
by MaxSas
3
SPX – Correction Scenarios#SPX – Correction Scenarios The S&P 500 is entering a corrective phase after completing a full 5-wave impulse. Current price: 6,654 Main focus: potential retracement between 6,350–6,150 pts Technical Context • The index reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (≈6,520) — typical for the final wave 5. • RSI divergence + trendline break confirm exhaustion. • Structure now shifts into ABC correction, possibly extending into wave (4) or a larger degree A-wave. Correction Scenarios 1️⃣ Shallow pullback (yellow path) • Target: 6,600–6,530 (0.236 Fib) • Structure: quick ABC with limited downside — “wave 4 inside 5.” • Bias: short-term profit-taking only. • Probability: High, if Fed remains neutral and earnings stay solid. 2️⃣ Standard correction (purple path) • Target: 6,350 (0.382 Fib / Pivot) • Structure: classic A-B-C retracement after trend extension. • Represents healthy market cooling without trend reversal. • Probability: Base case / Most likely. 3️⃣ Deeper correction (white path) • Target: 6,150 (0.5 Fib / EMA 200 zone) • Structure: larger A-B-C completing wave (4). • Often precedes a strong new impulse (wave 5 of higher degree). • Probability: Moderate, triggered by weaker Q3 data or tighter Fed tone. 4️⃣ Extended correction (cyan path) • Target: 6,030–5,800 (0.618–0.786 Fib) • Structure: deeper W-X-Y or expanded flat, washing out late longs. • Long-term accumulation zone. • Probability: Low, but key for long-term investors. 📌 Summary • SPX likely transitions into a corrective ABC structure. • Primary support area: 6,350–6,150. • Only a break below 6,000 would confirm a broader trend reversal. • Until then, overall bias stays medium-term bullish — correction before continuation.
SP:SPX
by NewOneCrypto
October 13 - October 17 2025I decided to go through and consolidate my charts this week to make for easier decision making. Friday’s sell off was a sign of weakness in a market that was already showing strain. While the drop on resumed trade war threats was swift, the rest of the market had a muted response. Heading into this week, we should see another big move and I will try to be open to trading either side depending on how this develops. 1. Macro Gold is still in its uptrend and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. I don’t have it charted here, but Gold’s volatility index CBOE:GVZ spiked during Friday’s session, however buyers seemed to be absorbing the volatility since it still closed up over 1%. Gold has already made a new ATH today and I do not expect to see the trend change this week. The dollar TVC:DXY seems to be near the top of its deviation from the flat EMA. I think we will see the dollar move lower which could boost Gold, Stocks, or both. Next, we saw TVC:US03MY remain relatively flat during Friday’s sell off while TVC:US10Y moved sharply lower during the session, making the TVC:US10Y -US03MY spread very tight once again. Since real yields are still edging up and the 3M bond stayed flat during the panic, that leads me to believe the bond market volatility was contained and may not be indicative of a true risk-off reaction. One reason why US Treasuries will continue to catch a bid is that as forward inflation expectations continue to slide (bottom left chart), the real return is still attractive compared to bonds from other major countries. We’ll see if the renewed trade sparring will change the forward inflation exceptions trend since the data from TIPS is delayed, however for now I’ll continue to base my perception on what I’m currently seeing on the chart. Lastly, Oil is continuing to see an average decline. Hopefully middle eastern peace efforts are successful, which could keep the price subdued. On the bottom chart I have combined the average of MCX:COPPER1! and Corn CBOT:ZC1! into a single line compared to TVC:DXY , which aims to show real demand (and/or inflation) pressure against the Dollar’s relative strength. Here we can see commodities took a hit on Friday but the trend is still very strong to the upside. Since forward inflation expectations are down and the dollar is flat, this may be pointing to the presence of real demand, which should be bullish for equities. 2. Risk Even when looking at the past six months on a line chart, the pullback, Friday’s drop was significant. As I mentioned last week, there are important risk-health items to watch for here. I’m now just charting the High Yield OAS - Investment Grade OAS spread, which was already starting to move up before Friday’s sell off. This data is only reported once per day for the previous session, so the impact on corporate bond yields is not yet known. This will be very important to pay attention to, as it could signal true aversion to risk. Next, the $ES1!/GOLD spread is declining and should continue until Gold enters a re-accumulation phase. Anyone’s guess when that will be so for now I think it’s safe to assume that Stocks will continue to underperform Gold, and if Friday’s drop was any indication of which side is in control, it serves as confirmation that stocks are sensitive to bad news. Buyers seem to be the ones getting absorbed. The third chart on the top shows that although CME_MINI:NQ1! has been outperforming CBOT_MINI:YM1! since the market bottomed, the momentum seems to be stalling out. I’ll be looking at the sectors to find any further signs of sustained rotation. 3. Sector Analysis My notes are best explained in the screenshot but my comment is that most of the decline on Friday came from AMEX:XLK (Tech sector) selling off. Other sectors performed better against SPX, with AMEX:XLP (Consumer Staples) seemingly breaking out of a decline, however as you can see from the chart on the right, it has still been the worst performer against the other indices over the past three months. One session is not enough to change the trend, however it will be important to watch for continued rotation out of tech and into other sectors. This could cause CME_MINI:NQ1! to decline against CBOT_MINI:YM1! as I suggested earlier, and would signal the market is positioning for a more sustained downturn - likely caused by disappointing growth. 4. Bias This is the chart I have tried to condense the most. I have switched to just using Line Break as my main chart for ES, which I found performed better than Renko when combined with my other indicators. On the lefthand side, I am using Session CVD but got rid of my other indicators and made a CVD Momentum indicator, which tracks the momentum of CVD rising or falling over an anchor period (1 week). I’m still using a range chart calculation for this chart, currently set to 20R. On the right, I am using what I’ll call my Volatility Dashboard, however it does not start producing a useful signal until premarket. Based on Volatility, it can be said with certainty that dealers went long on puts right before the sell-off began. From a technical standpoint, the price was in a rising wedge and dumped after it made a higher high that did not reach the upper trend line. Rising channels are generally bullish, however the extent of Friday’s free fall could mean that even if the price quickly recovers, it may be forming a top similar to what we saw last December. This is why risk indicators like corporate bond spreads, sector performance, and changes to the macro structure will be important to monitor over the coming days. — Conclusion For this week, all I can say with certainty is that I think there will be some good opportunities. Here is what I believe can be safely assessed from this analysis: 1. Stocks remain under pressure, however “smart money” will require more time to rotate out of tech, leading to repeated retests of the top of the range. 2. Tailwinds for stocks are potential real demand in agriculture and industrial material that is not impacting the market’s forward inflation expectation. 3. “Smart Money” will sell volatility (puts) into pullbacks if the price is set to be driven higher, or will do the opposite, buying volatility (puts) and selling calls on low volume rips This is why I will be looking for more confirmation before taking a side, as the market’s goal now is to clear out liquidity. When it comes to the larger trend, I tend to think that stocks do not seem to be showing strength over the larger macro structure, however that does not necessarily dictate that the index will come down another 8%. Instead, I think at the very least we will stay in a flat range for the time being. I do not think the market is ready to go on a bull run, nor do I think the environment is showing a risk-off bias that is strong enough to warrant stocks going straight down. If we meet resistance near the top of the range, I’ll look at volatility positioning and CVD for the signal to go short. Conversely, if we make a higher low I will go long on calls to the top of the range. Good luck to all and thanks for reading!
SP:SPX
by ap769
SPX — Still Below Anchored VWAP, Eyes on Lower Channel BoundSPX remains capped below the anchored VWAP — sellers still dictating flow. If price can’t reclaim above, a move toward the lower bound of this descending channel remains in play. Watching for a reaction near channel support. Macro Backdrop: Sticky yields: 10Y holding near cycle highs keeps pressure on equity multiples. Fed tone: “Higher for longer” stance limits risk appetite and valuation expansion. Slowing growth: Softening ISM and consumer data hint at cooling demand. Earnings compression: Margin pressures building as labor and input costs stay elevated. Geopolitical overhangs: Middle East tensions and trade friction adding to risk-off tone.
SP:SPX
by AlchemyMarkets