SPX Setup - overdue for a dip, is it time?Lets see what price does when it reaches the trendline above. A break and retest, or rejection on the line would be a good risk/reward setup.
Trade ideas
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Last week's trading session was marked by significant volatility in the S&P 500 Index, which experienced pronounced price fluctuations following its descent to our established Mean Support level of 6550. This level served as a critical point for market participants, triggering a series of rapid buying and selling activities that contributed to the index's overall gyrations.
At present, the index is positioned just below the newly established Mean Resistance level of 6671, which indicates the potential for further upward momentum, as this trend suggests a Well-built extension to the subsequent Mean Support level of 6550.
Contrariwise, it is essential to acknowledge and be aware of the emergence of the unexpected market drop to the Mean Support 6550, 6485, 6371, and the Key Support level of 6240. Additionally, it's crucial to take note of the Auxiliary Inner Rebounds occurring at these critical points.
S&P 500 at the Golden Support – Bounce or Breakdown?Short-Term View:
S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average near 6,470 after a recent correction from 6,800. A strong bullish reaction from this zone could push prices toward 6,850 → 7,000.
If the index closes below 6,550, short-term momentum turns bearish and a drop toward 6,400 becomes likely.
Long-Term View:
The broader trend remains bullish as long as price holds above 6,470–6,145.
Breaking below 6,145 would confirm a larger correction toward 6,000–5,800, while holding above this zone keeps the path open for new highs near 7,200.
Summary:
S&P 500 stands at a key technical decision zone — the market is deciding whether to resume its bullish trend or start a mid-term correction.
SPX short term roadmapPath says it all. Not financial advice. Will show zoomed out channel in another post.
US500 Short term cautionOutlook
While short term caution is warranted due to the recent decline and elevated volatility, the US500 remains in a long term uptrend supported by strong annual gains. Expectations of continued resilience from large cap stocks maintain a positive outlook going into year end. However, models suggest a cautious path for the near future, anticipating the index to correct, indicating potential headwinds. The critical support zone remains near 6,400.
Fundamental Analysis
US500 demonstrates robust long term health, up over 11% compared to one year ago. This performance is fundamentally driven by resilient large cap earnings and underlying strength in technology and consumer sectors. Major financial institutions, including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, have recently raised their year end targets into the 6,000 – 6,900 range, citing expectations of continued strong earnings and potential tailwinds from monetary policy shifts and interest rate cuts. However, current sentiment has introduced short term caution due to recent macroeconomic developments and elevated volatility.
Technical Analysis
The index is currently trading around a key support of 6,600 points, reflecting a short term decline from the previous session. The short term trend is showing signs of a possible bearish correction or pullback, despite longer timeframes maintaining underlying bullish momentum. Volatility is notably elevated, with the VIX above 25.00, suggesting increased market uncertainty and potential for sharp swings. Immediate resistance is clearly defined near the recent high of 6,725. Immediate support is seen around 6,600 points. Short term bearishness is primarily attributed to technical factors like profit taking.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Longer term S&P500 potential Slightly longer term look at the S&P 500 if we see a further decline in price. This is a weekly chart and would need to see price decline by some 15% from the current level. Theres a few current catalysts that could contribute to such a move:
- US government shutdown comes to an end. The shutdown itself maybe wouldn't have the biggest market reaction but at the moment markets are trading in the dark with the absence of major US macro data so the eventual release of this data will cause some very big volatility, just a matter of seeing in which direction.
- We've seen some positivity in the geopolitical space and market were continuing to rally although it seems it's either priced in now or has been shrugged off, well see how goes through the remainder of trumps peace deal.
- We're also coming into Q3 earning and some of the big names have been massively helping to drive indexes higher. Any big misses or beats on earnings could also provide some big volatility, lots of stocks are propped up with high expectations so downside could be big on misses.
- Finally, market is still uneasy since that last tariff threat to China , confirmation on the end of this would also spread some good positivity in the equity space.
Any of these current drivers could have the potential to see price towards the weekly trendline or to breakout through ATH's again.
Depending on if you're taking a leveraged shorter term trade or an unleveraged ETF investment would determine how/when you enter on such a pullback.
Is SPX selling for a sell off Observation on SPX
1) Since 25TH April the SPX was bouncing on its 20 Ema . In fact if you bought every time SPX touched the 20 EMA you would have made money .
2) The 20 Ema acted as a support 6 times .
3) But notice the last three bounces were weaker and weaker .
4) 7TH time the 20 Ema broke with increasing volume .
Conclusion the probability of a break down is very high almost 75%
16 OCT 2025: H1 - SMT DIVERGENCE VISUALIZEDNARRATIVE:
US100 made a HH purging the PDH and delivering into the H4 -OB
US30 made a LH and did not purge the PDH
US500 made a LH and did not purge the PDH
SMT is drawn from the High of the PD to the High of the current day - note that on the LTFs like the M15, if you look closely this is the PD NY High to the current day NY high. The M15 provides the landscape for you to execute in real-time and observe the SMT whilst it occurs.
Hope you enjoyed today's lesson :)
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S&P500 | Mild CrashRisk assets looking to sell off as the stock market tops out around $6,800.
Current price action is only pulling back to test sellers again and we should see a continuation in selling until mid November and hopefully to see a Christmas rally to end the year off.
Since price action awfully looks similar to '24 - '25 Fractal we could say the SPX will look to top next year February/March also considering we're on correction 4 in the Elliott Wave Theory.
Would like to see the S&P bottom out around April - July months of next year at $5,600 if we can continue the bullish parallel trend.
H&S + RSI Divergence = Pain aheadSPX has a confluence of Head and shoulders and RSI divergence - This might be painful. Taking major profits here
SPX | Daily Analysis #4 Hello and welcome back to DP,
**Review and News**
Yesterday, the index experienced a $150 intraday fluctuation and closed in the green. As mentioned in a previous post, we noted that "if the price breaks the 6682 zone, the index could extend towards the 6720 area." As illustrated in the chart, the market responded to this price range and dropped towards the 6620 zone. However, in a significant move, buyers outperformed sellers, pushing the price back to the 6681 zone. This move is noteworthy as it indicates that the market shows more potential for upward movement rather than a downward move. It’s also important to note that, in the final moments before market closure, President Trump tweeted: "The USA is officially in a trade war with China."
**1-Hour and 4-Hour Time Frame Price Action**
As depicted in the chart, the formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) suggests that the market is struggling to regain gains and recover from its previous record highs. The significant candlestick shows that buyers have a strong presence and are willing to push the price higher. However, if the price dips below this candlestick, the index could move lower, potentially benefiting short sellers. That being said, I don’t believe this will happen. In my opinion, many retail traders are hoping for a larger price drop, but based on market behavior, this could be a trap for sellers. Therefore, I anticipate a potential upward move and a recovery of last Friday’s losses within this week.
**Trend Analysis**
While I’m unable to display my trend analysis chart here, as mentioned previously, the price tested the 4-hour trend line (with the first trend line originating from February 25, 2025, and the second starting from August 12, 2025). The price then made a significant move, breaking through the upper trend line.
**Trade Ideas**
1. If the price falls through the 6681 zone and confirms the break, consider entering a buy position at the last high.
2. If the price declines with high volume (possibly triggered by news) through the 6617 area and breaks this zone strongly, a cautious sell position can be considered, with two take-profit levels on the way down.
3. Based on the 4-hour trend line, a buy position could be considered if the price falls and approaches the trend line again (around the 6630 area).
**Disclaimer**
These notes and trade ideas are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice.
*Issued by: A. Diba Kohn*
SPX into Thursday 16th OctoberMarket has flipped from bullish to bearish,It is trying to unwind that downtrend.Will it succeed.?
$SPX As the U.S.–China trade war escalates, new investors might inject liquidity into U.S. markets to maintain strong ties with the U.S. economy.
SP:SPX could keep pushing higher not from peace, but from strategic capital alignment.
SPX Bullish Trend / Elliot analysisOur analysis of this index suggests that we are currently in the development of a Wave 4 (W4) within the last bullish substructure of the macro fifth wave, where, in the long term, we could potentially see the end of the trend between the 7100 and 7600 levels.
At the moment, the price appears to be moving within the final substructure, which seems about to begin a Wave 4 (W4) correction.
💡 This is just my opinion — always remember to do your own analysis!
Less bars ...More tequilaGo up a timeframe.Much clearer.I have ignored a spike downwards.6700 to pop.?
S{X looking a tad over stretched/ short termCareful...Looks a tad over stretched.Could still pump though.Lets see what happens
SPX500USD | Daily Analysis #3**Yesterday Review**
As observed, the index reacted to the 6682 zone, and news from China stating, "China will maintain tariffs until the end," fueled the market with sellers, pushing the price to the lower zone at 6584. In the morning of the New York session, it appeared that Trump realized the importance of offering a positive signal or message, or the index would suffer significantly. After a strong battle between buyers and sellers on the 1-hour timeframe, the price began to rise, driven by buying pressure.
During the middle of the New York session, Trump found an opportunity to provide some optimism, announcing a scheduled meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea on November 1st to discuss trade matters. (This could be a significant day.) This news contributed to a bounce, pushing the price back up to 6682.
**1-Hour & 4-Hour Timeframes**
On the 1-hour timeframe, two potential patterns are forming. One is a box range between 6682 and 6585, and the other is an upward trend channel. However, neither pattern is fully respected due to limited confirmation.
On the 4-hour timeframe (although I cannot share an image here), if you draw two lines—one starting from February 25, 2025, and the other from August 12, 2025—and extend them to the right, you'll notice a clear respect and relationship between these lines.
**Current Situation**
As of the time I am posting this analysis, the price is currently testing below the trendline, and we are awaiting a reaction. If the index, with or without further news, breaks the 6682 zone or the trendline strongly, we could expect the price to reach the 6672 zone. On the other hand, if the price respects the box or the upward trend channel, the index may find support and rise toward the 6604 area.
How Spot Forex Trading Works1. Understanding the Concept of Spot Forex Trading
Spot Forex trading, also known as spot FX, refers to the direct exchange of one currency for another at the current market rate, known as the spot price. Unlike futures or options contracts, where settlement happens at a later date, a spot transaction is settled “on the spot”, typically within two business days (T+2) for most currency pairs.
The Forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market globally, with a daily trading volume exceeding $7 trillion. It operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing traders from around the world to speculate on currency price movements. Spot Forex trading forms the foundation of global currency trading, providing real-time exchange of currencies between participants such as banks, corporations, investors, and retail traders.
2. The Participants in the Spot Forex Market
The Spot Forex market involves multiple participants who trade for different purposes:
Central Banks – Manage currency reserves, stabilize exchange rates, and implement monetary policies.
Commercial Banks and Financial Institutions – Facilitate interbank trading and currency exchange for clients.
Multinational Corporations – Exchange currencies for international trade and investment purposes.
Hedge Funds and Investment Firms – Engage in speculative trading to profit from currency fluctuations.
Retail Traders – Individuals using online platforms to speculate on short-term price movements.
Each participant contributes to market liquidity, influencing price dynamics based on supply and demand.
3. Currency Pairs and Price Quotation
In the Forex market, currencies are always traded in pairs, such as EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, or USD/INR. The first currency is the base currency, and the second is the quote currency.
The price quote represents how much of the quote currency is required to buy one unit of the base currency. For example, if EUR/USD = 1.0900, it means 1 Euro = 1.09 US Dollars.
Each pair has:
Bid Price – The price at which the market (or broker) is willing to buy the base currency.
Ask Price – The price at which the market (or broker) is willing to sell the base currency.
The difference between these two is called the spread, which represents the broker’s commission or transaction cost.
4. How Spot Forex Transactions Are Executed
Spot Forex trading operates through over-the-counter (OTC) networks rather than centralized exchanges. When a trader places a buy or sell order on a trading platform, the broker executes it through liquidity providers or the interbank market.
For instance, if a trader buys EUR/USD, they are effectively buying Euros while selling US Dollars at the current spot rate. The transaction is typically settled within T+2 days, though in practice, many brokers offer rolling spot contracts, which are automatically extended daily for speculative purposes.
Execution types include:
Market Orders – Executed instantly at the best available price.
Limit Orders – Executed when the market reaches a specified price level.
Stop Orders – Triggered when the price crosses a set threshold to limit losses or capture breakouts.
5. The Role of Leverage in Spot Forex Trading
Leverage is one of the most distinctive features of the Forex market. It allows traders to control large positions with relatively small amounts of capital. For example, a 1:100 leverage ratio means that a trader can control a $100,000 position with only $1,000 of margin.
While leverage amplifies potential profits, it also magnifies losses, making risk management essential. Professional traders typically use moderate leverage and implement stop-loss mechanisms to protect against adverse movements.
Regulators in different regions impose varying limits on leverage — for example, 1:30 in the EU (ESMA regulations) and 1:50 in the US.
6. Determinants of Spot Forex Prices
Spot exchange rates are influenced by numerous macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technical factors:
Interest Rate Differentials: Higher interest rates attract foreign capital, boosting demand for the currency.
Economic Indicators: GDP growth, employment data, inflation, and trade balances affect currency valuation.
Central Bank Policies: Monetary tightening or loosening directly impacts currency strength.
Political Stability: Political risk or uncertainty weakens investor confidence, depreciating the currency.
Market Sentiment and Speculation: Traders’ collective expectations drive short-term fluctuations.
Global Events: Wars, pandemics, and natural disasters can trigger volatility across the Forex market.
In short, Forex prices are a reflection of global economic health and investor confidence.
7. Profit and Loss Calculation in Spot Forex
The profit or loss in a spot Forex trade is determined by the change in exchange rate between the time the position is opened and closed.
For example, if a trader buys EUR/USD at 1.0900 and sells it later at 1.1000, they gain 100 pips (the fourth decimal point represents a pip in most pairs).
Profit calculation formula:
Profit (USD)
=
Pip Movement
×
Lot Size
×
Pip Value
Profit (USD)=Pip Movement×Lot Size×Pip Value
For a standard lot (100,000 units), one pip in EUR/USD equals $10. Thus, a 100-pip move equals $1,000 profit.
Conversely, if the trade moves against the trader, losses occur at the same rate. Hence, understanding position sizing and pip value is crucial for effective risk management.
8. Settlement and Delivery in Spot Forex
While traditional spot Forex transactions involve physical delivery of currencies within two business days, retail traders rarely take delivery. Instead, brokers provide contract-based trading that simulates real exchange but is settled through cash differences in profit or loss.
For institutional participants, however, settlement occurs through systems like CLS (Continuous Linked Settlement), which eliminates settlement risk by synchronizing payments between major financial institutions globally.
Thus, while the spot market technically implies immediate delivery, in practice, most participants engage for speculative or hedging purposes without currency delivery.
9. Risk Management in Spot Forex Trading
Spot Forex trading carries inherent risks due to volatility, leverage, and unpredictable global events. To mitigate these, traders adopt structured risk management strategies:
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders – Automatically close positions at predefined levels to control losses or lock in profits.
Position Sizing – Limiting trade size relative to account equity, often 1–2% per trade.
Diversification – Avoiding concentration in one currency pair or region.
Economic Calendar Monitoring – Tracking major events like central bank meetings and GDP releases to anticipate volatility.
Technical and Fundamental Analysis – Combining chart patterns with macroeconomic insights to make informed decisions.
Effective risk management ensures long-term sustainability and consistent returns in the Forex market.
10. Advantages and Challenges of Spot Forex Trading
Advantages:
High Liquidity: Tight spreads and minimal slippage due to massive global participation.
24/5 Availability: Traders can operate across global time zones without limitation.
Low Entry Barriers: Retail traders can start with small capital using micro or mini accounts.
Leverage Access: Enables higher market exposure with limited funds.
No Centralized Exchange: Global accessibility through OTC trading networks.
Challenges:
High Volatility: Sharp fluctuations can trigger significant losses.
Leverage Risk: Over-leveraging can wipe out accounts quickly.
Information Overload: Constant economic updates require active monitoring.
Broker Reliability: Unregulated brokers pose counterparty risks.
Psychological Pressure: Emotional control is essential for success in a fast-paced market.
Despite these challenges, spot Forex trading remains one of the most popular avenues for both institutional and retail investors due to its liquidity, flexibility, and potential for profit.
Conclusion
Spot Forex trading represents the core of the global currency market, enabling participants to exchange currencies directly at real-time rates. Its structure—comprising major participants, dynamic pricing, leverage, and decentralized execution—creates immense opportunities and risks alike. Understanding how the market functions, the economic forces behind exchange rates, and effective risk management techniques is crucial for success. Whether used for speculation, hedging, or international trade, the Spot Forex market remains a cornerstone of global finance, reflecting the heartbeat of the world’s economic and political landscape.
SPX into the Euro open.Tuesday 14th OctoberPoss supp area 6565-6600 looming
66400 seems to be some swearing and fighting
SNP500 short uptick and quick downfallZeusExodus
As the marked upticks close to 7k levels it will drop about 10% that will mark the lowest point on July 11th.
HOW-TO: Forecast Next-Bar Odds with Markov ProbCast🎯 Goal
In 5 minutes, you’ll add Markov ProbCast to a chart, calibrate the “big-move” threshold θ for your instrument/timeframe, and learn how to read the next-bar probabilities and regime signals
(🟩 Calm | 🟧 Neutral | 🟥 Volatile).
🧩 Add & basic setup
Open any chart and timeframe you trade.
Add Markov ProbCast — P(next-bar) Forecast Panel from the Public Library (search “Markov ProbCast”).
Inputs (recommended starting point):
• Returns: Log
• Include Volume (z-score): On (Lookback = 60)
• Include Range (HL/PrevClose): On
• Rolling window N (transitions): 90
• θ as percent: start at 0.5% (we’ll calibrate next)
• Freeze forecast at last close: On (stable readings)
• Display: leave plots/partition/samples On
📏 Calibrate θ (2-minute method)
Pick θ so the “>+θ” bucket truly flags meaningful bars for your market & timeframe. Try:
• If intraday majors / large caps: θ ≈ 0.2%–0.6% on 1–5m; 0.3%–0.8% on 15–60m.
• If high-vol crypto / small caps: θ ≈ 0.5%–1.5% on 1–5m; 0.8%–2.0% on 15–60m.
Then watch the Partition row for a day: if the “>+θ” bucket is almost never triggered, lower θ a bit; if it’s firing constantly, raise θ. Aim so “>+θ” captures move sizes you actually care about.
📖 Read the panel (what the numbers mean)
• P(next r > 0) : Directional tilt for the very next candle.
• P(next r > +θ) : Odds of a “big” upside move beyond your θ.
• P(next r < −θ) : Odds of a “big” downside move.
• Partition (>+θ | 0..+θ | −θ..0 | <−θ): Four buckets that ≈ sum to 100%.
• Next Regime Probs : Chance the market flips to 🟩 Calm / 🟧 Neutral / 🟥 Volatile next bar.
• Samples : How many historical next-bar examples fed each next-state estimate (confidence cue).
Note: Heavy calculations update on confirmed bars; with “Freeze” on, values won’t flicker intrabar.
📚 Two practical playbooks
Breakout prep
• Watch P(next r > +θ) trending up and staying elevated (e.g., > 25–35%).
• A rising Next Regime: Volatile probability supports expansion context.
• Combine with your trigger (structure break, session open, liquidity sweep).
Mean-reversion defense
• If already long and P(next r < −θ) lifts while Volatile odds rise, consider trimming size, widening stops, or waiting for a better setup.
• Mirror the logic for shorts when P(next r > +θ) lifts.
⚙️ Tuning & tips
• N=90 balances adaptivity and stability. For very fast regimes, try 60; for slower instruments, 120.
• Keep Freeze at close on for cleaner alerts/decisions.
• If Samples are small and values look jumpy, give it time (more bars) or increase N slightly.
🧠 Why this works (the math, briefly)
We learn a 3-state regime and its transition matrix A (A = P(Sₜ₊₁=j | Sₜ=i)), estimate next-bar event odds conditioned on the next state (e.g., q_gt(j)=P(rₜ₊₁>+θ | Sₜ₊₁=j)), then forecast by mixing:
P(event) = Σⱼ A · q(event | next=j).
Laplace/Beta smoothing, per-state sample gating, and unconditional fallbacks keep estimates robust.
❓FAQ
• Why do probabilities change across instruments/timeframes? Different volatility structure → different transitions and conditional odds.
• Why do I sometimes see “…” or NA? Not enough recent samples for a next-state; the tool falls back until data accumulate.
• Can I use it standalone? It’s a context/forecast panel—pair it with your entry/exit rules and risk management.
📣 Want more?
If you’d like an edition with alerts , σ-based θ, quantile regime cutoffs, and a compact ribbon—or a full strategy that uses these probabilities for entries, filters, and sizing—please Like this post and comment “Pro” or “Strategy”. Your feedback decides what we release next.
