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Correction down and up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD slowly went up some more and took the liquidity above. Now it made a Weekly bullish FVG. So nNext week we could see a correction downto fill this and after that more upside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down. After a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
US500: Inflation Focus Keeps Momentum in Check The US500 (S&P 500 index) is trading just below its record high, reflecting a constructive sentiment that anticipates potential easing from the Fed and a seasonal 'Santa rally'. Investors, however, are showing caution ahead of key US inflation data. Fundamental Analysis Markets are concentrating on the delayed PCE Inflation Report , the Fed’s preferred measure, to confirm expectations for a rate cut and subsequent easing in 2026. Futures pricing shows a high probability of a 0.25% cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, which supports risk assets like the US500. Recent mixed labor figures, rising job cut announcements but low weekly Jobless Claims support a 'cooling, not collapsing' growth narrative, which generally favors equity markets. Technical Analysis US500 maintains a technically bullish posture, trading well above its EMA21 and EMA78, confirming a strong prevailing uptrend. However, the RSI is nearing overbought levels, which increases the risk of a consolidation. Immediate resistance sits at 6,920, close to the recent peak. Intraday support clusters in the 6,820–6,840 area , with stronger support at 6,730. Outlook If US500 closes above 6,920, the price might prompt a push toward the next target at 7,000. Conversely, a drop below the major support at 6,730 could lead US500 to retest the following support at 6,650. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness.
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Global Risk-On vs Local Weakness – Dec 4th Market Outlook 1) Macro Overview – Capital Rotation into AI, Gold, Tech, Crypto High-confidence signals: Fed rate cut probability: 87–90% DXY downtrend: bullish for Gold, EM equities, crypto U.S. 10Y yield: ~4.08% (stable, risk-on supportive) Sentiment: Risk-on (score 7/10) China stimulus: supports base metals & commodities Market interpretation: Lower yields + weaker USD → capital rotates into AI, semiconductors, gold, growth stocks, and selective crypto. 2) BIST100 – Global Rally, but Local Divergence Despite positive global momentum, BIST underperforms due to domestic structural factors. Why BIST is lagging: Persistent equity fund outflows (TEFAS) High real interest rates → pressure on industrial margins Weak liquidity & fragmented flows Foreign positioning still limited Key Technical Levels (High SEO weight) Support: 11,000 → 10,900 Resistance: 11,200 → 11,300–11,350 Bias: Selective bullish, not broad-based Strong sectors: Banks (AKBNK, YKBNK, GARAN) Gold miners (KOZAL) Defensive Energy (TUPRS, AKSEN) Exporters (TOASO, FROTO) Weak areas: High-debt industrials Low-liquidity midcaps Stories dependent on short-term sentiment 3) U.S. Stock Market – AI & Semiconductors Remain the Core Trend S&P 500 (~6,849) and Nasdaq futures continue to price a soft landing narrative. Leading themes (SEO keywords): Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductors Cloud Infrastructure HealthTech Institutional view: AI remains the dominant macro-theme for Q4 and early 2026. 4) Gold, Commodities & Crypto – Trend Continuation Gold (XAUUSD / XAUTRY) Spot: ~4,200 Strong uptrend, supported by: • weak USD • geopolitical risk • lower real yields Mid-term targets: 4,500 – 5,000 (This is heavily searched; TradingView pushes such ranges upward.) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) – Volatile Bullish Structure BTC trades near 93,000, bouncing strongly from the 88k–90k demand zone. ETF inflows (~$222M) confirm institutional participation. Market structure: higher lows forming, but volatility remains elevated. Altcoin radar (high-engagement tags): SOL, SUI, ONDO, FET → selective rallies, no broad alt-season yet. 5) Ordo618 Strategy Playbook – Actionable Plan Short-Term Trading (Index/Futures) BIST30 December Futures: Bias: Bullish above 12,000 Buy Zone: 12,000 – 12,250 Targets: 12,500 → 12,600 Invalidation: below 11,950 / 12,150 Portfolio Positioning (Global Audience SEO) Equities (Turkey): Prefer banks & exporters Wait for pullbacks before adding size Thematic Funds / ETFs: AI, Tech, Semiconductors Renewable/Green Energy Hedging: 10–15% exposure to Gold (XAUTRY or XAUUSD) Crypto Allocation: BTC core, ETH secondary Altcoins max 5% of total book 6) Key Risks – What Can Break the Trend Local Risk: Prolonged equity fund outflows → structural sell pressure on BIST. Global Risk: If U.S. macro weakens too quickly → soft landing narrative flips into hard landing fears → global risk-off. Protection Strategy: Keep 15–20% cash buffer Strict stop-loss discipline Hold a Gold hedge Avoid overleverage
TVC:SPX
by ordo618
Revisiting Market Views: Lessons from the S&PRecently, our view was that the S&P would remain supported by the 55-day moving average. Yet, the market traded below, closed below, and then staged a strong rebound back above that level. Looking closer, the bounce appears to have come from the base of the daily cloud — a critical support area around 6521. As long as this low holds, upside momentum remains intact, with potential to retest the October high at 6920. That said, our long-term perspective hasn’t changed: the index is approaching the top of a very long-term up channel, with limited upside capped near 7,300. Where does this leave us? • Upside momentum is intact • Risk/reward doesn’t justify new longs • No reason to cut existing longs • No reason to go short — the market still looks bid In short: patience and discipline matter. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Not trading advice, personal view and meant for education only.
SP:SPX
by The_STA
SPX WEEK 48 — Strong Bounce Into Year-End! 2026 BULL RUN COMING?Strong week for the SP:SPX index. After two weeks of hesitation candles, price finally shifted back into strength and pushed decisively higher. This week’s candle not only reclaimed momentum but fully erased last week’s cooling-off behavior. Price also moved well above the key mid-range levels that traders usually watch to define trend health. It’s now sitting firmly above the major risk zone and continues building distance away from it — a clear sign of strength. From the moment this week’s upside break triggered, the index has gained roughly 1.9%, and that kind of move typically translates into solid returns for options traders playing directional setups. Major support zones sit lower around 5900, 5100, and the deeper structural support near 4000. As long as price holds above the upper layers of support, momentum remains intact. On the higher-timeframe monthly chart, the trend has been active for eight straight months with no signs of exhaustion. Price is still far above the level where the monthly trend began, and even further above the long-term midline — showing how dominant the larger trend still is. The 2-day chart continues to support the overall bullish structure, breaking above short-term levels and maintaining strength after multiple confirmations earlier in the week. This week was a clean continuation of the broader uptrend — strong candle, strong momentum, and strong positioning above every major structural region. Elite clarity. Elite precision. More coming soon.
SP:SPXLong
by GURULifeline
Week 48 Market Update — $SPXStrong week for the SP:SPX index. After two weeks of hesitation candles, price finally shifted back into strength and pushed decisively higher. This week’s candle not only reclaimed momentum but fully erased last week’s cooling-off behavior. Price also moved well above the key mid-range levels that traders usually watch to define trend health. It’s now sitting firmly above the major risk zone and continues building distance away from it — a clear sign of strength. From the moment this week’s upside break triggered, the index has gained roughly 1.9%, and that kind of move typically translates into solid returns for options traders playing directional setups. Major support zones sit lower around 5900, 5100, and the deeper structural support near 4000. As long as price holds above the upper layers of support, momentum remains intact. On the higher-timeframe monthly chart, the trend has been active for eight straight months with no signs of exhaustion. Price is still far above the level where the monthly trend began, and even further above the long-term midline — showing how dominant the larger trend still is. The 2-day chart continues to support the overall bullish structure, breaking above short-term levels and maintaining strength after multiple confirmations earlier in the week. This week was a clean continuation of the broader uptrend — strong candle, strong momentum, and strong positioning above every major structural region. Elite clarity. Elite precision. More coming soon.
SP:SPXLong
by GURULifeline
1
SP500: Ready to Break Out and Forge New All-Time Highs S&P 500 indicates that the recent complex downward correction is complete, having bottomed at 6501.7. The market is currently rallying and is testing the major upper trendline resistance. The analysis projects a minor, temporary pullback to gather momentum, potentially to the 6775.0 area. Following this consolidation, a decisive breakout above the trendline is anticipated. This will confirm the launch of a major new upward wave, expected to drive the S&P 500 to new all-time highs above 6928. Stay Tuned :) @Money_Dictators
VANTAGE:SP500
by Money_Dictators
A Storm Is Coming?Core Thesis: The market is colossally underestimating the risk of a deliberate US dollar devaluation. Contrary to popular belief, a weaker dollar in this specific context will not boost risk assets but will instead be the source of massive volatility, potentially exceeding 2008. The collapse will come from the unwinding of a global dollar-centric carry trade. The Pillars of the Storm: The Structural Imbalance (The Fuel): The US, as the world's largest importer, sends dollars abroad. To maintain their export-oriented economies, foreigners reinvest these dollars into US assets (especially the top 7 S&P 500 stocks). This has created a structural "carry trade": global investors are overexposed to US assets and, trusting that the dollar rallies in crises (like 2008), do not hedge their currency risk. This continuous flow is a primary reason for extreme US equity market valuations. Global liquidity, not just fundamentals, has inflated prices. The Trump Agenda (The Trigger): The Trump administration is actively pursuing a weaker dollar to gain an upper hand in the economic conflict with China, using tariffs as leverage. Since Trump took office, we have already seen episodes where the dollar and stocks sell off simultaneously – a warning sign that the traditional correlation is breaking. The Federal Reserve (The Accelerator): Trump needs a dovish Fed to weaken the dollar. The appointment of Steven Miran to the Fed, with his interest rate projections 100bps below other members, is a clear signal of this direction. A new Fed Chair, more aligned with Trump, will likely take over in 2026 to implement a more aggressively accommodative monetary policy. The Crisis Mechanism: The trap is set in the following scenario: The Fed cuts rates aggressively to weaken the dollar, following Trump's agenda. The dollar devalues significantly. For a foreign investor, the return is: (S&P 500 Return) + (FX Change). With the dollar falling, their gains are eroded or turn into losses. This triggers a mass exodus of these foreign investors, who start selling US assets to protect their returns. The selling is amplified by the structural fragility: everyone is positioned the same way. Liquidity evaporates. Panic sets in when the typical "Fed put" (intervention to save the market) fails, because more liquidity injected by the Fed would depress the dollar even further, amplifying the equity selloff instead of containing it. Warning Signals to Monitor: Primary Signal: Equity selling occurring simultaneously with a depreciating dollar. Confirmation Signal: A rise in implied volatility (skew) in the currency market. Market Signal: Underperformance of high-beta and low-quality stocks, indicating that risk capital flows are drying up. Critical Signal: Any Fed intervention that, instead of calming the market, causes an even larger selloff in the dollar and stocks. Current Positioning & Conclusion: In the short term, the author maintains long positions in equities, gold, and silver, as liquidity tailwinds are still favorable. However, the storm is forming. The market is as complacent about a weak dollar as it was about mortgages in 2007. When the signals above flash, indicating that cross-border flow risk is materializing, it will be time to position defensively: short equities, long volatility, and short the US dollar. The crisis is not a matter of "if," but "when" these structural flows begin to reverse. Awareness of this mechanism is the single greatest edge an investor can have today.
SP:SPX
by SardinhaDePlantao
1
US500 - Breakout to New All-Time Highs!US500 suggests the market has put a definitive end to its recent downward movement, signaling that a major bullish trend is set to continue. This complex correction, which the chart labels as complete at the 6506.8 low, looks resolved. The index has since staged a powerful rebound and is currently pressing right up against the major upper trendline resistance, which defined the limits of the entire corrective phase. A clear and sustained move above this key trendline will provide final confirmation that the correction is over and that a significant new upward wave has begun. The previous area of congestion around 6760 is now expected to act as strong support for the index, preventing any minor pullbacks from turning into a deeper decline. With the current price around 6,812.61 and the all-time high at 6,920.34 , the index is technically well-positioned to challenge and surpass this record high soon.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Money_Dictators
1
Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing AgainThe Hindenburg Omen has triggered, and it’s lining up with what the market breadth data has been whispering for months. If you look at the bottom pane, you’ll see the percentage of stocks above their major moving averages has been sliding for about six months. So even though the index has kept pushing to new highs, fewer stocks are moving with it. A small group of mega-caps is doing all the heavy lifting, while the broader market slowly weakens underneath. Historically, that’s exactly the kind of environment where the Hindenburg Omen becomes relevant. It doesn’t promise a crash, but it flags when internal conditions have deteriorated enough to allow one. Several past signals have occurred before meaningful corrections. Why This Matters Now The next couple of weeks are important. CPI, PPI and labour data between now and 10 December will shape expectations heading into the FOMC meeting. If the Fed changes tone on monetary policy, liquidity, or the path of rates, it will feed directly into sector rotation and capital flows. That’s why I’m not committing to any major trades right now. The signals are mixed, breadth is weakening, leadership is narrow and policy risk is rising. Capital preservation comes first until we get a clear direction from the data and the Fed. Sometimes the smartest move is patience. Let the data confirm the story. The market isn’t going anywhere.
SP:SPXEducation
by TappingCapital
2
SP500 Bullish Divergence Detected (SPY)Bullish divergence of the SP500 and NYSE Advance Decline Line (ADL) is one of the most powerful and reliable "leading" indicators available. Here we see the ADL make a new high (a higher high) while the SP500 does not make a new high. This divergence indicates that market breadth is markly improving, which will ultimately drive the SP500 up to new all time highs in the coming weeks or months. I am well aware of discussions about bubble fears and valuation concerns. It's important to note that the market can continue to increase for some time even with these concerns, so it would be a mistake to get out of or short the market at this time. Also, the technicals are pointing higher, not lower. As long as this train keeps chugging, we should stay on this ride! Go long on SPY, VOO, QQQ!!!
TVC:SPXLong
by VTrade52
3
US inflation makes its return this Thanksgiving week!For several weeks, financial markets have been operating with reduced visibility. The reason: the latest U.S. shutdown, which paralyzed part of the federal administration and caused an exceptional delay in the publication of numerous major macroeconomic statistics. Yet these figures, usually released according to a precise schedule, form the analytical backbone for investors and for the Federal Reserve (Fed). The situation should finally normalize during this Thanksgiving week, with a long-awaited catch-up, particularly regarding PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. One of the most notable delays concerns the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) series. The September report, originally scheduled for October 3, was only released last Thursday. The November report, normally published in early December, will not appear until December 16—after the Fed’s December 10 meeting. These delays are due to the need for U.S. statistical agencies to rebuild their data and validation processes after several weeks of forced shutdown. But the central focus of market attention remains the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index for October, a key figure for anticipating the Fed’s monetary stance at its December 10 meeting. This report was expected at the end of October under the standard Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) timeline. Now, several converging sources indicate a release expected this week, likely on November 25 and 26, as agencies finalize their revised calendar. It is therefore during Thanksgiving week that investors will finally receive these crucial numbers. The uncertainty does not end there. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for September and October have also been delayed. Markets now anticipate publication “late November to early December,” giving agencies time to fully adjust their distribution processes. Some components of the PPI, particularly for September, may be released as soon as November 25, with remaining figures following shortly after. This major catch-up comes at a decisive moment. With the Fed set to decide on December 10 about a potential adjustment to its monetary policy, every inflation data point carries considerable weight. The PCE numbers, in particular, will provide a clearer snapshot of price dynamics during the autumn, and therefore of the central bank’s room for maneuver should it consider a 0.25% rate cut. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
SPX : Potential Zweig Breadth ThrustThe Breadth Thrust Indicator is a technical indicator that looks at how many stocks advance vs. decline over 10 days. When it snaps from around 0.40 to above about 0.615 in 10 trading days or less, that’s called a Zweig Breadth Thrust and has historically lined up with strong bull runs more often than not. Historically it doesn’t happen often, but when it does, forward returns over the next several months have usually been positive, which is why traders get excited when the line on your chart surges like this. Historically, once a full thrust has triggered, the index has often been higher 6–12 months later in the majority of cases.
SP:SPXLong
by FlorinCharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In this abbreviated weekly trading session, influenced by a significant U.S. holiday and a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data centers at CME, the S&P 500 Index posted notable gains, reaching our primary target, the Mean Resistance at 6,849. At present, this position suggests the potential for further upward movement, with primary targets established for a continuation of the robust trend toward Key Resistance at 6,895, followed by an extended target identified as the Outer Index Rally at 6,945. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognize that, given the prevailing market dynamics, there exists a considerable likelihood of an In-Force pullback from the aforementioned price targets.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
SP500 short-term consolidation renewed bullish strength.SP500 has rebounded strongly from the recent demand zone near 6,630–6,650, showing a clear shift in momentum toward the upside. Price has broken out of the short-term consolidation, indicating renewed bullish strength. Technically Price previously traded inside an ascending channel but recently dipped out after the drop, bulls stepped in at the demand zone and pushed price upward aggressively the current move suggests the market may attempt to re-test the upper levels. If price sustains above this level, it confirms strong bullish continuation 68,00 to 69,05 This is the upper resistance zone from the previous highs a break above this area may open the door toward a new bullish wave. You may find more details in the chart, Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by MrMartin_11
11
More upside for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD went up again just as I've said in my previous outlook. Next week we could see a correction down and more upside for this pair. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a correction down. After a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
SPX500 Bullish Plan in Motion with SMA + Kijun Confirmation🚀 US500/SPX500 INDEX MARKET SWING TRADE MASTERCLASS 🎯 📊 ASSET: S&P 500 Index (US500 | SPX500) Timeframe: 4H-Daily | Strategy Type: Swing Trade | Market Context: Bullish Pullback Confirmation 🎲 TRADE SETUP: THE "THIEF PROTOCOL" STRATEGY ⚡ ✅ TECHNICAL CONFIRMATION 🔹 Primary Signal: Simple Moving Average (SMA) Pullback Retest 🔹 Secondary Confirmation: Kijun-sen (Ichimoku MA) Retest 🔹 Market Structure: Higher Lows Formation + Bullish Consolidation 🔹 Bias: LONG with Layered Entry Methodology 💰 ENTRY STRATEGY: MULTI-LAYER LIMIT ORDER APPROACH The "Thief Layering Method" - Stack multiple buy limit orders for optimal risk distribution: 🟢 Layer 1 Entry: $6,750.00 - Initial Probe Entry (30% Position Allocation) 🟢 Layer 2 Entry: $6,800.00 - Aggressive Add (35% Position Allocation) 🟢 Layer 3 Entry: $6,850.00 - Final Confirmation Entry (35% Position Allocation) Entry Flexibility: Adjust layers based on your account size & risk tolerance. Spread entries across pullback zones for superior fill pricing. 🛑 STOP LOSS MANAGEMENT Recommended SL Level: $6,720.00 - Placed below the support trendline + SMA confluence ⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER: Dear Traders! This is YOUR trading journey. We strongly recommend adjusting stop loss based on YOUR risk management rules. Account sizing is crucial - never risk more than 2-3% per trade. Your SL placement = YOUR decision, YOUR responsibility. Use proper position sizing ALWAYS. 🎯 PROFIT TARGET ZONES Primary Target: $7,050.00 ⚡ 📊 Technical Reasoning: This level represents strong resistance confluence zone, historical supply level in overbought territory, and creates a risk/reward sweet spot of 1:3+ return potential. Alert: Trap zone exists here - smart money reversal area confirmed. Exit Strategy Recommendation: Close 50% of position at $7,000-7,020 to lock partial profits. Hold remaining 50% with trailing stop or until $7,050 for maximum upside capture. Lock profits incrementally to secure gains. ⚠️ CRITICAL REMINDER: Your profit target = YOUR choice! This TP represents technical confluence, but market conditions evolve. Trade YOUR plan, manage YOUR risk, protect YOUR capital. 🌍 CORRELATED PAIRS TO WATCH 🔗 📈 PRIMARY CORRELATIONS 1️⃣ QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) - 0.99 Correlation 💻 This is the tech-heavy composition that typically leads SPX rallies. Current focus remains on AI/Mag7 momentum and overall growth stock sentiment. Key watch: QQQ strength = SPX bullish confirmation signal. When QQQ breaks out, SPX follows closely. 2️⃣ IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) - 0.95 Correlation 📍 Small-cap composition with high tariff sensitivity. Current status shows small-cap underperformance zones vulnerable to trade policy shifts. Trading tip: IWM weakness = Sector rotation risk, so watch for divergence from SPX strength. 3️⃣ DXY (US Dollar Index) - Inverse/Mixed Correlation 💵 Recent positive correlation emerging in 2025 market dynamics. Current dynamic shows dollar strength now sometimes supports equities due to policy-driven factors. Risk factor alert: DXY spike above 108 = potential SPX headwind to monitor. 📊 SECONDARY WATCH PAIRS SPY (S&P 500 ETF) - Mirror of SPX, use for volume confirmation and institutional positioning. DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Large-cap value barometer, less tech-sensitive than QQQ, shows rotation signals. VIX (Volatility Index) - Above 25 = caution mode, below 15 = complacency warning. 📱 KEY CORRELATION INSIGHTS FOR THIS TRADE 🔴 RED FLAGS - Watch These Closely: VIX spiking above 30 signals potential fear spike. DXY breaking above 108 creates dollar strength pressure. QQQ failing to confirm breakout indicates tech weakness divergence. IWM hitting new lows signals broad market weakness. 🟢 GREEN LIGHTS - Trade Confirmation: QQQ and SPX moving in sync above SMA is bullish. IWM holding key support levels confirms breadth. DXY consolidating means no headwind pressure building. VIX below 20 indicates low fear environment. 🎯 TRADE PSYCHOLOGY & EXECUTION TIPS ✅ Pre-Trade Checklist: Confirm SMA pullback on 4H chart before entry. Verify Kijun retest on Ichimoku indicator. Check QQQ alignment for correlation confirmation. Monitor DXY to avoid strong dollar days. Set alerts at all 3 entry layers for execution readiness. ✅ During Trade Management: Take partial profit at 50% move up to secure gains. Move SL to breakeven after hitting first target. Trail stop every 50-pip move in your favor. Document your execution for journal review and performance tracking. 🔥 TRADE EXECUTION SUMMARY Signal Type: Bullish Pullback Retest ✅ Confirmed Entry Method: 3-Layer Limit Orders 🎯 Optimized for Best Fill Pricing SL Level: $6,720.00 🛑 Defined and Placed Below Support TP Level: $7,050.00 🎯 Defined at Resistance Confluence Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3+ 💰 Favorable Trade Structure Best Tradeable Window: Next 48-72 Hours ⏰ Active Setup Zone Good Luck, Traders! 🚀 Trade Smart. Trade Safe. Trade Often. Remember: Your SL = Your Protection | Your TP = Your Goal | Your Risk = Your Responsibility #SPX500 #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIdea #S&P500 #MarketAnalysis #TradeSetup #RiskManagement
TRADENATION:US500Long
by The-Thief
S&P 500 Technical & Fundamental Outlook — Week of De 1–5 2025Technical Analysis Summary – SPX Compression Structure SPX is currently trading inside a contracting price formation, defined by a descending resistance trendline from recent highs and a rising support trendline from the early Q4 low. This structure represents a period of market indecision and volatility compression, where buyers and sellers are positioning before a larger directional move. Key Observations The upper trendline marks repeated rejection points — this is a clear overhead supply zone. The lower trendline shows higher lows forming — underlying demand is still present. Price is compressing toward an apex, and historically, these structures lead to strong expansion once resolved. Because of this setup, entries inside the wedge are high-risk and low-reward, as price tends to chop and trap both sides until a breakout or breakdown is confirmed. Bullish Scenario A bullish continuation requires: A clean breakout above the descending trendline A successful pullback that holds as support (higher low) Continuation momentum This would indicate that buyers have absorbed supply and are in control. Upside levels then open toward the previous reaction highs, and momentum buyers may accelerate the move. Bearish Scenario A bearish continuation is confirmed by: A breakdown below the rising trendline A failed retest of that area from below (lower high) Increase in downside momentum or volume This would signal that buyers have lost control of the trend, and trapped long positions above could fuel a deeper correction toward prior support levels. Conclusion The SPX is coiling inside a clear compression pattern. The proper approach is to wait for the market to choose direction, then position after confirmation, not before. This is a breakout-or-breakdown environment — not a place to trade the middle.The Market Is Rallying — BUT The AI Trade Is Fragile Stocks rebounded hard this past week after the biggest pullback since April, mainly because: Markets believe the Fed will cut in December (rate-cut odds jumped to 80%+). BUT: Mega-cap AI names remain volatile. AI profitability narrative is being challenged. This is the key line in the sand for SPX right now: AI spending is massive, but profits are not yet confirmed. That’s the reason NVDA + GOOGL are whipping around so violently. ⚠️ 2. The Narrative Shift You Must Watch The market is shifting from "AI growth" → "AI returns". Matthew Maley (Miller Tabak): “The narrative surrounding the profitability of AI is coming under question.” Translation for traders: No longer enough to say “AI spending”. Now the market wants proof of revenue + margins. If that narrative worsens → SPX pressure. This week was a warning shot: Alphabet mooning on Gemini 3 news → “AI winner” narrative Meta possibly buying Google chips → hurts NVDA Semis shook → volatility in the core leadership names If NVDA becomes an AI CAPEX victim instead of the bottleneck supplier → the entire AI bull leg changes. 📉 3. Bitcoin’s Slide = Waning Risk Appetite Bitcoin fell from $125k → under $90k. King Lip (BakerAvenue): “Bitcoin serves as a risk proxy for equities.” This matters because: SPX often peaks when BTC momentum dies. Risk is shifting from growth/AI → defensives/small caps. Crypto weakness = risk appetite fading. 📈 4. SPX Context — This Is NOT a Crash, It’s a “Narrative Test” SPX is +16% YTD heading into a historically strong window. December is the 3rd-best month since 1950 (avg +1.43%) Market is still at the ceiling: SPX is only ~1% below its October ATH Nasdaq is ~3% off its high This is not bearish selling. This is positioning + narrative testing. 🧠 5. What Is Hurting Tech Right Now Two forces: A. Timing of monetization Companies spent hundreds of billions on training + infra. But when do earnings arrive? Nobody knows. Paul Nolte: “Investors are rethinking how quickly this will hit bottom lines.” This is the heart of the SPX risk. B. Tech Debt Issuances Big AI names issued heavy debt to fund expansion. This scares valuation models. When the “future promises” trade meets balance sheet reality → rotations begin. 💵 6. Fed Cuts: The Bullish Counterweight Traders now price: 80%+ odds of a December rate cut This is huge because: Cuts expand breadth in the SPX Small caps, cyclicals, value names get oxygen This is the exact reason SMID outperformed this week. Anthony Saglimbene: “What I’m watching is if rate cuts bring momentum outside of tech.” This is literally the rotation we’ve been waiting for. 🏭 7. Macro Ahead — SPX Sensitivity Next week will hit: Manufacturing ISM Services ISM Consumer sentiment CRM, DLTR, KR earnings (consumer health) Holiday retail performance (Black Friday / Cyber Monday) 👉 But note: many core economic releases were delayed or cancelled due to the 43-day government shutdown. Saglimbene: “Investors will have to deal with the fog.” This creates high headline volatility on SPX going into January. 🔑 8. THE REAL TAKEAWAY FOR SPX & NDX TRADERS This is no longer a hype-cycle AI rally. You must trade: Earnings Margin guidance Capex-to-revenue timing 🎯 AI → cost center (now) 🎯 AI → profit engine (unknown) As long as that uncertainty persists, ➡️ volatility in NVDA, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, META remains ➡️ SPX stays sensitive at the highs 🧨 Trader-Level Summary (no commentator BS) Bullish forces Fed rate cut probability exploding higher Seasonality (December = historically strong) Market breadth improving beyond megacaps Bearish forces Bitcoin risk proxy collapsing AI spending profitability questioned Mega-cap tech debt issuance “Infra first, profits later” fear 🔥 HOW TO TRADE THIS (S&P Focused) Watch these 3 things every day: 1️⃣ NVDA price action If NVDA cracks ↓ → SPX loses leadership. 2️⃣ Alphabet’s Gemini 3 momentum If Gemini models take market share: → NVDA supply chain narrative fractures → Rotation to CPUs/TPUs → hurting semis 3️⃣ Bitcoin risk proxy BTC < $90k = risk appetite unwinding 🏁 ONE SENTENCE THAT MATTERS SPX is still bullish, but leadership is no longer unquestioned — AI profitability and risk appetite are now the drivers, not AI hype.
SP:SPX
by SteveGold325
SP500 Resumes The Uptrend After Bears Stops At Key LevelUS stock market moved lower recently, and we’ve seen one of the biggest declines in the last few months, with lower highs and lower swing lows for the last couple of weeks, but there is still a chance that this is basically a diagonal formation on SP500, either in wave C or alternatively already in wave A or wave 1. But so far looks more like a completed C wave of a flat due to the current strong rebound, which can be the beginning of a new wave 5 headed towards new highs; What’s important in the near future, in our opinion, is that as long as the market trades above 6512 support, there is a real chance that there will be more upside in the near-term. At least three wave rally is what I would be looking for. GH
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast