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SPX: NVIDIA surging bets on Fed cutThe previous week on the US stock markets was marked with surprisingly low Non-farm payrolls data in August. Namely, only 22K new jobs were added to the US economy, while the market was expecting to see at least 75K. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4,3% in August from 4,2% posted for the previous month. These figures were a game changer when market sentiment is in question, so Friday was a quite volatile day. Namely, during the one day, the positive market sentiment pushed the S&P 500 to the historically highest level at 6.530, but the disappointing jobs data, reverted the optimism, so the index closed the week at 6.481. The slowing jobs market increased expectations that the Fed now has solid grounds to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting. The company Kraft Heinz was in the center of news during the previous week, after the announcement that the company will split into two, in a strategic move aimed at unlocking brand value. The split should finalize in the second half of 2026. Shares of the company rose by 1% on the news, however, it should be considered that the stocks lost around 21% over the past year. Another company that was discussed was Robinhood Markets, which will join the S&P 500 index before trading on September 22nd, in a milestone indicating growing mainstream acceptance of the fintech giant. The stocks of the company surged around 7,3% following the announcement. Some higher volatility might be expected also in the coming period on the US stock markets. There are still both positive and negative drivers which are shaping market sentiment. In the week ahead the US August inflation data will be posted, which might bring some higher volatility in case that the figures are not in line with market expectations. For the moment, the easing jobs market in the US is providing a strong case for the rate cut in September.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
1
SPX500USD is still going up slowlyHi traders, Last week SPX500USD finished the correction (Flat) and went up again just as I've said in previous outlook. Price is not very impulsive. It looks like it forms an ending diagonal. So next week we could see this pair slowly going up some more. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Sep 5, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading sessions of the previous week, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a notable downward movement, reaching the Intermediary In Force Pullback Extension of 6370. An Odds-on Secondary Rebound subsequently followed this decline, as the index restored its upward trajectory by achieving the Mean Resistance level of 6502, although it subsequently settled below this benchmark. It is essential to acknowledge that the current rebound from the Mean Support level of 6447 suggests a significant probability of a sustained upward movement toward the long-term objective, namely the Outer Index Rally at 6543, as detailed in the prior S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis. Conversely, one must consider the potential for a substantial pullback to the Mean Support extension level of 6413, which would likely precede another rebound. Moreover, it is critical to recognize that the ongoing price fluctuations may induce a considerable pullback after the fulfillment of the Outer Index Rally target at 6543. Following this anticipated downward adjustment, the index will likely resume its upward trend, targeting the completion of the Outer Index Rally at 6420.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Weekly insighta EUR/USD S&P500 NVDA METAThis video is a weekly insights report from a financial trader on TradingView. I amdiscussing my analysis and predictions for several financial instruments based on technical and fundamental indicators. Key Points: Market Overview: The speaker talks about the impact of recent US unemployment data on the market, which led to a "parabolic" rise in the Euro dollar. Euro Dollar: Based on a technical analysis of an "expanding diagonal" and an old trend line, the speaker believes a false breakout is likely. They plan to avoid trading USD pairs for the next 11 days, waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. S&P 500: The speaker notes a five-wave Elliot wave pattern with an expanding diagonal. They are waiting for the price to break below a trend line and a red confirmation line before considering a short position. They anticipate a "choppy" market for the coming week. Nvidia: The speaker received "hate comments" for their previous analysis of Nvidia. They stand by their short position, citing a break below the exponential moving average, a "huge" divergence on the monthly chart, and a "shooting star" candle pattern. They note that Nvidia is the heaviest stock in the S&P 500, representing 7.5% of the index. Bitcoin: The speaker points out that Bitcoin's price has crossed and retested two moving averages, which they see as a bearish sign. They will consider a short position if the price breaks below the previous low. They also expect Bitcoin to be stagnant in the coming week while the market waits for the Fed's decision. Call to Action : The video concludes with a plea for viewers to subscribe to the speaker's TradingView channel for more trading insights and short-trade opportunities.
SP:SPXShort
by MartketsTitan
Why K-Line Is a Game-ChangerThis ⁠🎰live-kline-signals might just be the greatest invention in financial trading ever … mark my words. 🚀 Here’s why: • Traditional TA & charting tools give you visuals 📊 — moving averages, RSI, patterns — but they don’t learn. They just show you what already happened. • Pure AI/LLM models give you intelligence 🧠 — they process billions of data points and detect hidden structures — but they don’t show you the exact price path. • K-Line ⁠🎰kline-signal combines the best of both worlds 🤩 — visual price paths and deep AI-powered learning of candlestick dynamics. That means you get a real-time market map that both looks like a chart AND thinks like an AI model. ⸻ 🎯 Why This Matters for Traders • You’re no longer stuck choosing between lagging TA indicators or black-box AI outputs. • You get early warning signals before big moves, with the ability to see where the market is shifting. • Trading becomes less guesswork, more probabilistic edge. ⸻ 🔑 How QS Uses It We built QS K-Line on top of TSFM ( time series foundation model ) trained on billions candlestick records across global markets. With our quant overlays, K-Line in QS detects: ✅ Transition zones (when range is about to break) ✅ Accumulation vs. distribution phases ✅ Trend ignition points In other words, K-Line shows you the story of price evolution — before it becomes obvious to the crowd. ⸻ 📌 Bottom line: Charts without intelligence are outdated. AI without charts is incomplete. With QS K-Line ⁠🎰live-kline-signals we just unlocked both. ⁠💰upgrade-instructions now to unlock this powerful trading oracle. 🔥 The future of trading is here.
SP:SPXEducation
by quantsignals
1
S&P reaching 6666...what could ever go wrong?There's a healthy does of bullishness as tech companies buy from their neighbors with CAPEX (100% depreciation) and short term rate cuts. The stock market is at the most expensive level, ever, blowing out PE and CAPE ratios. While I hope the economy does better, a pull back is healthy. Many of the leading indicators show bright red, and some are choosing to ignore. I guess time will tell! Best of luck and keep an eye on VIX (UVIX). There's a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....
SP:SPXShort
by antonini2002
US500: Disconnection between equity prices & broad economic dataThe US500 is trading near record highs with the index up nearly 18% over the year. The market is driven by optimism about an imminent Fed rate cut, robust Q3 earnings, and continued strength in large cap tech shares, but fundamental valuation concerns and signs of overbought technical conditions persist. Fundamental Analysis The rally is resting on expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce its first 2025 rate cut this week, likely by 25 basis points. Mega cap tech and rate sensitive sectors are leading gains, but economic headwinds remain, unemployment is ticking higher, and indicators like retail sales and leading economic indicators have weakened. Valuations among the top US500 stocks are stretched, with the top 10 names trading at a forward P/E of 30x well above historical averages and record levels of cash hoarding notably by Berkshire Hathaway are raising caution flags. Disconnection between equity prices and broad economic data is notable, with softening consumer metrics and elevated corporate bankruptcies. Technical Analysis Technical signals remain mostly bullish, as the index continues to trade within a strong uptrend and posts new highs. Short-term technical indicators such RSI show overbought conditions and weak breadth could signal fatigue. Key support is found at 6,545, then at 6,505 while immediate resistance is at the all-time high and then at projected levels of 6,630 ahead of 6,690. Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SP:SPXLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Global Commodity Supercycles1. What Is a Commodity Supercycle? A commodity supercycle refers to a prolonged period (typically 20–40 years) during which commodity prices rise significantly above long-term averages, driven by sustained demand growth, supply constraints, and structural economic shifts. Unlike typical business cycles of 5–10 years, supercycles are much longer and tied to transformational changes in the global economy. Key features include: Long Duration: Lasts for decades, not years. Broad-Based Price Increases: Not limited to one commodity, but a basket (energy, metals, agriculture). Demand Shock Driven: Triggered by industrial revolutions, urbanization waves, or technological breakthroughs. Slow Supply Response: Mines, oil fields, and farms take years to scale up, prolonging shortages. Eventual Bust: Once supply catches up or demand slows, prices collapse, starting a long down-cycle. 2. Historical Commodity Supercycles Economists often identify four major supercycles since the 19th century. a) The Industrial Revolution Supercycle (Late 1800s – Early 1900s) Drivers: Industrialization in the U.S. and Europe, railroad expansion, urban growth. Key Commodities: Coal, steel, iron, copper. Impact: Prices soared as cities and factories expanded. Demand for energy and metals fueled new empires. Eventually, productivity gains and resource discoveries (new coal fields, iron ore mines) balanced the market. b) The Post-War Reconstruction Supercycle (1940s–1960s) Drivers: World War II destruction, followed by reconstruction in Europe and Japan. Key Commodities: Steel, oil, cement, agricultural products. Impact: The Marshall Plan, industrial rebuilding, and mass consumption pushed commodity demand sky-high. OPEC began forming as oil became the lifeblood of economies. The cycle peaked in the 1960s before slowing in the 1970s. c) The Oil Shock and Emerging Markets Supercycle (1970s–1990s) Drivers: Oil embargo (1973), Iran Revolution (1979), rapid urbanization in parts of Asia. Key Commodities: Crude oil, gold, agricultural goods. Impact: Oil prices quadrupled in the 1970s, fueling inflation and recessions. Gold became a safe haven. By the 1980s, new oil production in the North Sea and Alaska helped break the cycle. d) The China-Driven Supercycle (2000s–2014) Drivers: China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization, joining the WTO (2001). Key Commodities: Iron ore, copper, coal, crude oil, soybeans. Impact: China’s demand for steel, infrastructure, and energy triggered the largest commodity boom in modern history. Copper and iron ore prices quadrupled. Oil hit $147/barrel in 2008. The cycle began unwinding after 2014 as China shifted toward services and renewable energy, and global supply caught up. 3. The Anatomy of a Supercycle Each supercycle follows a predictable pattern: Stage 1: Triggering Event A major economic or geopolitical transformation sparks sustained demand. Examples: Industrial revolution, post-war reconstruction, or China’s rise. Stage 2: Demand Surge Factories, cities, and infrastructure consume massive amounts of raw materials. Demand far outpaces supply. Stage 3: Price Boom Commodity prices skyrocket. Exporting nations enjoy “commodity windfalls.” Importers face inflation and trade deficits. Stage 4: Supply Response High prices incentivize new investments—new oil rigs, mines, farmland. But supply takes years to come online. Stage 5: Oversupply & Demand Slowdown Eventually, supply outpaces demand (especially if growth slows). Prices collapse, ushering in a prolonged downcycle. 4. Economic and Social Impacts of Supercycles Supercycles are double-edged swords. Positive Impacts: Export Windfalls: Resource-rich countries (e.g., Brazil, Australia, Middle East) see growth, jobs, and government revenues. Industrial Expansion: Importing nations can grow rapidly by using commodities for infrastructure. Innovation Incentives: High prices drive efficiency, substitution, and technology (e.g., shale oil, renewable energy). Negative Impacts: Dutch Disease: Commodity booms can overvalue currencies, hurting manufacturing exports. Volatility: Dependence on commodity cycles creates fiscal instability (e.g., Venezuela, Nigeria). Inequality: Resource wealth often benefits elites, not the wider population. Environmental Stress: Mining, drilling, and farming expansion often degrade ecosystems. 5. Current Debate: Are We Entering a New Supercycle? Since 2020, analysts have speculated about a new global commodity supercycle. Drivers Supporting a New Cycle: Energy Transition: Shift to renewables and electric vehicles massively increases demand for copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Infrastructure Spending: U.S., EU, and China launching trillions in green infrastructure projects. Geopolitical Shocks: Russia-Ukraine war disrupted oil, gas, and wheat markets. Supply Constraints: Years of underinvestment in mining and oil exploration after 2014 downturn. Population Growth: Rising consumption in India, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Drivers Against: Technological Substitution: Recycling, efficiency, and alternatives (e.g., hydrogen, battery innovation) could cap demand. Climate Policies: Push for decarbonization reduces long-term oil and coal demand. Economic Uncertainty: Global recession risks, debt crises, and deglobalization trends. Likely Scenario: Instead of a broad-based boom like the 2000s, we may see a “green supercycle”—metals (copper, lithium, nickel) rising sharply while fossil fuels face structural decline. 6. The Role of Investors in Commodity Supercycles Supercycles are not just macroeconomic phenomena—they also attract investors and speculators. How Investors Play Them: Futures Contracts: Traders bet on rising/falling commodity prices. Equities: Buying mining, energy, and agriculture companies. ETFs & Index Funds: Exposure to commodity baskets. Hedging: Airlines hedge oil, food companies hedge wheat, etc. Risks: Mis-timing cycles leads to heavy losses. High volatility compared to stocks and bonds. Political risk in resource-rich countries. Lessons from History No Cycle Lasts Forever: Every boom is followed by a bust. Supply Always Catches Up: High prices incentivize investment, eventually cooling prices. Policy and Technology Matter: Wars, sanctions, renewables, and discoveries reshape cycles. Diversification Is Key: Countries and investors relying only on commodities face huge risks. Conclusion Global commodity supercycles are among the most powerful forces shaping economies, markets, and geopolitics. From fueling industrial revolutions to triggering financial crises, commodities underpin human progress and conflict alike. Today, the world may be on the cusp of a new, “green” commodity supercycle driven by decarbonization, electrification, and geopolitical rivalry. Metals like copper, lithium, and nickel may play the role that oil and steel did in past cycles. Yet, history teaches us caution—supercycles generate immense opportunities but also volatility, inequality, and environmental costs. For policymakers, the challenge is to manage windfalls responsibly. For investors, it is to ride the wave without being crushed by it. And for societies, it is to ensure that the benefits of supercycles support long-term sustainable development rather than short-lived booms and painful busts.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
2
The Global Shadow Banking System1. Understanding Shadow Banking 1.1 Definition Shadow banking refers to the system of credit intermediation that occurs outside the scope of traditional banking regulation. Coined by economist Paul McCulley in 2007, the term highlights how non-bank entities perform bank-like functions such as maturity transformation (borrowing short-term and lending long-term), liquidity transformation, and leverage creation—yet without the same safeguards, such as deposit insurance or central bank backstops. 1.2 Key Characteristics Non-bank entities: Shadow banking is carried out by hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms, securitization vehicles, and other institutions. Credit intermediation: It channels savings into investments, much like traditional banks. Regulatory arbitrage: It often arises where financial activity moves into less regulated areas to avoid capital and liquidity requirements. Opacity: Complex instruments and off-balance sheet entities make it difficult to track risks. 1.3 Distinction from Traditional Banking Unlike regulated banks: Shadow banks cannot access central bank liquidity in times of crisis. They lack deposit insurance, increasing systemic vulnerability. They rely heavily on short-term wholesale funding such as repurchase agreements (repos). 2. Historical Evolution of Shadow Banking 2.1 Early Developments Shadow banking’s roots can be traced to the 1970s and 1980s, when deregulation in advanced economies allowed financial innovation to flourish. Rising global capital flows created demand for new instruments outside traditional bank lending. 2.2 Rise of Securitization The 1980s–2000s saw the explosion of securitization, where loans (e.g., mortgages) were bundled into securities and sold to investors. Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and conduits became central actors in shadow banking, financing long-term assets with short-term borrowing. 2.3 Pre-Crisis Boom (2000–2007) The shadow system expanded rapidly before the 2008 financial crisis. Investment banks, money market funds, and structured investment vehicles financed trillions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). This system appeared efficient but was highly fragile. 2.4 The 2008 Financial Crisis When U.S. subprime mortgage markets collapsed, shadow banks faced a sudden liquidity freeze. Lacking deposit insurance and central bank support, institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering global contagion. The crisis revealed the systemic importance—and dangers—of shadow banking. 2.5 Post-Crisis Reconfiguration After 2008, regulators tightened banking rules, pushing even more activities into the shadow system. Simultaneously, reforms such as tighter money market fund rules sought to contain systemic risks. Despite these efforts, shadow banking has continued to grow, especially in China and emerging markets. 3. Structure of the Shadow Banking System The shadow banking universe is diverse, consisting of multiple actors and instruments. 3.1 Key Entities Money Market Funds (MMFs) – Provide short-term financing by investing in highly liquid securities. Hedge Funds & Private Equity – Use leverage to provide credit, often in riskier markets. Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) – Finance long-term securities through short-term borrowing. Finance Companies – Offer consumer and business loans without deposit funding. Broker-Dealers – Rely on repo markets to fund securities inventories. Securitization Conduits & SPVs – Issue asset-backed securities (ABS). 3.2 Instruments and Mechanisms Repos (Repurchase Agreements) – Short-term loans secured by collateral. Commercial Paper – Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations or conduits. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) – Bundled mortgage loans sold to investors. Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) – Structured products pooling various debt instruments. Derivatives – Instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) that transfer credit risk. 3.3 Interconnectedness The system is deeply interconnected with traditional banks. Many shadow entities rely on bank credit lines, while banks invest in shadow assets. This interdependence amplifies systemic risk. 4. Global Dimensions of Shadow Banking 4.1 United States The U.S. remains the epicenter, with trillions in assets managed by MMFs, hedge funds, and securitization vehicles. Its role in the 2008 crisis highlighted its global impact. 4.2 Europe European banks historically relied on securitization and repo markets, making shadow banking integral to cross-border finance. Luxembourg and Ireland are major hubs due to favorable regulations. 4.3 China China’s shadow banking system emerged in the 2000s as a response to tight bank lending quotas. Wealth management products (WMPs), trust companies, and informal lending channels fueled rapid credit growth. While supporting growth, they also raised concerns of hidden debt risks. 4.4 Emerging Markets In Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, shadow banking fills credit gaps left by underdeveloped banking sectors. However, limited oversight raises systemic vulnerabilities. 5. Benefits of Shadow Banking Despite its risks, shadow banking provides several advantages: Credit Diversification – Expands funding beyond banks. Market Liquidity – Enhances efficiency in capital markets. Financial Innovation – Encourages new instruments and risk-sharing mechanisms. Access to Credit – Supports SMEs and consumers underserved by traditional banks. Global Capital Mobility – Facilitates international investment flows. 6. Risks and Challenges 6.1 Systemic Risk Shadow banking increases interconnectedness, making financial crises more contagious. 6.2 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch Borrowing short-term while investing in long-term assets creates vulnerability to runs. 6.3 Leverage High leverage amplifies both profits and losses, making collapses more severe. 6.4 Opacity and Complexity Structured products like CDOs obscure underlying risks. 6.5 Regulatory Arbitrage Activities shift to less regulated domains, making oversight difficult. 6.6 Spillover to Traditional Banking Banks are exposed through investments, credit lines, and funding dependencies. Conclusion The global shadow banking system is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it enhances financial diversity, supports credit creation, and fuels innovation. On the other, it introduces opacity, leverage, and systemic fragility that can destabilize economies. The 2008 crisis demonstrated how vulnerabilities in the shadow system can trigger global turmoil. Going forward, regulators must adopt balanced approaches: tightening oversight without stifling beneficial innovation. International coordination is critical, given the cross-border nature of shadow banking. As financial technology evolves, the boundaries between traditional banks, shadow entities, and digital platforms will blur even further. Ultimately, shadow banking is not merely a “shadow” but an integral part of modern finance—one that demands vigilance, transparency, and adaptive regulation to ensure it serves as a force for stability and growth rather than crisis and contagion.
SP:SPXEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet