SPX,.Areas of possible interestFOMC day.So could be a tad wild.Possible areas pf interest marked.It might not stay in the pattern.Possible fakes below 6600
US500FU trade ideas
Global Commodity Supercycles1. What Is a Commodity Supercycle?
A commodity supercycle refers to a prolonged period (typically 20–40 years) during which commodity prices rise significantly above long-term averages, driven by sustained demand growth, supply constraints, and structural economic shifts. Unlike typical business cycles of 5–10 years, supercycles are much longer and tied to transformational changes in the global economy.
Key features include:
Long Duration: Lasts for decades, not years.
Broad-Based Price Increases: Not limited to one commodity, but a basket (energy, metals, agriculture).
Demand Shock Driven: Triggered by industrial revolutions, urbanization waves, or technological breakthroughs.
Slow Supply Response: Mines, oil fields, and farms take years to scale up, prolonging shortages.
Eventual Bust: Once supply catches up or demand slows, prices collapse, starting a long down-cycle.
2. Historical Commodity Supercycles
Economists often identify four major supercycles since the 19th century.
a) The Industrial Revolution Supercycle (Late 1800s – Early 1900s)
Drivers: Industrialization in the U.S. and Europe, railroad expansion, urban growth.
Key Commodities: Coal, steel, iron, copper.
Impact: Prices soared as cities and factories expanded. Demand for energy and metals fueled new empires. Eventually, productivity gains and resource discoveries (new coal fields, iron ore mines) balanced the market.
b) The Post-War Reconstruction Supercycle (1940s–1960s)
Drivers: World War II destruction, followed by reconstruction in Europe and Japan.
Key Commodities: Steel, oil, cement, agricultural products.
Impact: The Marshall Plan, industrial rebuilding, and mass consumption pushed commodity demand sky-high. OPEC began forming as oil became the lifeblood of economies. The cycle peaked in the 1960s before slowing in the 1970s.
c) The Oil Shock and Emerging Markets Supercycle (1970s–1990s)
Drivers: Oil embargo (1973), Iran Revolution (1979), rapid urbanization in parts of Asia.
Key Commodities: Crude oil, gold, agricultural goods.
Impact: Oil prices quadrupled in the 1970s, fueling inflation and recessions. Gold became a safe haven. By the 1980s, new oil production in the North Sea and Alaska helped break the cycle.
d) The China-Driven Supercycle (2000s–2014)
Drivers: China’s rapid industrialization and urbanization, joining the WTO (2001).
Key Commodities: Iron ore, copper, coal, crude oil, soybeans.
Impact: China’s demand for steel, infrastructure, and energy triggered the largest commodity boom in modern history. Copper and iron ore prices quadrupled. Oil hit $147/barrel in 2008. The cycle began unwinding after 2014 as China shifted toward services and renewable energy, and global supply caught up.
3. The Anatomy of a Supercycle
Each supercycle follows a predictable pattern:
Stage 1: Triggering Event
A major economic or geopolitical transformation sparks sustained demand. Examples: Industrial revolution, post-war reconstruction, or China’s rise.
Stage 2: Demand Surge
Factories, cities, and infrastructure consume massive amounts of raw materials. Demand far outpaces supply.
Stage 3: Price Boom
Commodity prices skyrocket. Exporting nations enjoy “commodity windfalls.” Importers face inflation and trade deficits.
Stage 4: Supply Response
High prices incentivize new investments—new oil rigs, mines, farmland. But supply takes years to come online.
Stage 5: Oversupply & Demand Slowdown
Eventually, supply outpaces demand (especially if growth slows). Prices collapse, ushering in a prolonged downcycle.
4. Economic and Social Impacts of Supercycles
Supercycles are double-edged swords.
Positive Impacts:
Export Windfalls: Resource-rich countries (e.g., Brazil, Australia, Middle East) see growth, jobs, and government revenues.
Industrial Expansion: Importing nations can grow rapidly by using commodities for infrastructure.
Innovation Incentives: High prices drive efficiency, substitution, and technology (e.g., shale oil, renewable energy).
Negative Impacts:
Dutch Disease: Commodity booms can overvalue currencies, hurting manufacturing exports.
Volatility: Dependence on commodity cycles creates fiscal instability (e.g., Venezuela, Nigeria).
Inequality: Resource wealth often benefits elites, not the wider population.
Environmental Stress: Mining, drilling, and farming expansion often degrade ecosystems.
5. Current Debate: Are We Entering a New Supercycle?
Since 2020, analysts have speculated about a new global commodity supercycle.
Drivers Supporting a New Cycle:
Energy Transition: Shift to renewables and electric vehicles massively increases demand for copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths.
Infrastructure Spending: U.S., EU, and China launching trillions in green infrastructure projects.
Geopolitical Shocks: Russia-Ukraine war disrupted oil, gas, and wheat markets.
Supply Constraints: Years of underinvestment in mining and oil exploration after 2014 downturn.
Population Growth: Rising consumption in India, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
Drivers Against:
Technological Substitution: Recycling, efficiency, and alternatives (e.g., hydrogen, battery innovation) could cap demand.
Climate Policies: Push for decarbonization reduces long-term oil and coal demand.
Economic Uncertainty: Global recession risks, debt crises, and deglobalization trends.
Likely Scenario:
Instead of a broad-based boom like the 2000s, we may see a “green supercycle”—metals (copper, lithium, nickel) rising sharply while fossil fuels face structural decline.
6. The Role of Investors in Commodity Supercycles
Supercycles are not just macroeconomic phenomena—they also attract investors and speculators.
How Investors Play Them:
Futures Contracts: Traders bet on rising/falling commodity prices.
Equities: Buying mining, energy, and agriculture companies.
ETFs & Index Funds: Exposure to commodity baskets.
Hedging: Airlines hedge oil, food companies hedge wheat, etc.
Risks:
Mis-timing cycles leads to heavy losses.
High volatility compared to stocks and bonds.
Political risk in resource-rich countries.
Lessons from History
No Cycle Lasts Forever: Every boom is followed by a bust.
Supply Always Catches Up: High prices incentivize investment, eventually cooling prices.
Policy and Technology Matter: Wars, sanctions, renewables, and discoveries reshape cycles.
Diversification Is Key: Countries and investors relying only on commodities face huge risks.
Conclusion
Global commodity supercycles are among the most powerful forces shaping economies, markets, and geopolitics. From fueling industrial revolutions to triggering financial crises, commodities underpin human progress and conflict alike.
Today, the world may be on the cusp of a new, “green” commodity supercycle driven by decarbonization, electrification, and geopolitical rivalry. Metals like copper, lithium, and nickel may play the role that oil and steel did in past cycles. Yet, history teaches us caution—supercycles generate immense opportunities but also volatility, inequality, and environmental costs.
For policymakers, the challenge is to manage windfalls responsibly. For investors, it is to ride the wave without being crushed by it. And for societies, it is to ensure that the benefits of supercycles support long-term sustainable development rather than short-lived booms and painful busts.
US500Success in forex and stocks comes from a combination of knowledge, discipline, and patience. Understanding market trends, economic factors, and company fundamentals is crucial, but equally important is controlling emotions and sticking to a well-planned strategy. Continuous learning, adapting to changing conditions, and managing risk wisely can turn opportunities into consistent growth over time. Consistency, not luck, separates successful traders from the rest.
SPX Elliott Count. (W3 of 3). S&P 500: Elliott Wave.
Targets:
8,293 then 7,204 finally 9,823.
SPX is currently in sub-wave 5 in W3 of W3. From this point we should see an aggressive push to 8,293 following a pullback then continuation.
Of course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for tOf course. Here is the English translation of the analysis for the US500 (S&P 500 index):
The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is the most authoritative benchmark for gauging the overall health of large-cap U.S. stocks. Covering 11 major sectors, its diversified nature makes it a "barometer" of the U.S. economy. The index is currently trading at all-time highs, driven by a combination of market expectations for Fed rate cuts and the resilience of corporate earnings. It is extremely sensitive to monetary policy; any surprises in inflation (CPI/PCE) or employment data can reshape the interest rate path and trigger a market repricing.
Sector rotation within the index is a key focal point. While the leadership of tech giants remains the main engine for gains, the performance of cyclical sectors like energy, financials, and industrials is crucial for market breadth and sustainability, signaling confidence in an economic "soft landing." From a technical standpoint, the 5,300 area has become a new battleground for bulls and bears. If constituent earnings continue to exceed expectations, the index could consolidate its upward momentum; conversely, it faces pullback pressure in a high-valuation environment.
Looking ahead, the direction of the US500 will be a tug-of-war between "AI-driven earnings growth" and "higher-for-longer interest rates." Investors should pay balanced attention to mega-cap earnings and broad economic data to assess whether the momentum can broaden. Short-term volatility is inevitable, while the long-term trend remains anchored on whether the U.S. economy can avoid a recession.
SPX into the open / Tuesday 16th SeptemberTrend is up.Coming off the boil a tad.Lets see who has control.?
S&P500 Key Trading levels Optimism on US-China relations drove markets higher after Trump’s positive Madrid meeting comments and Treasury Sec. Bessent’s note on a TikTok deal framework.
The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed as US-listed Chinese firms rallied.
This lifted global equities: S&P 500 +0.47% (new ATH), Stoxx 600 +0.42%, both near record highs.
Tech led gains: NASDAQ +0.94%, Magnificent 7 +1.95%. Alphabet hit $3trn valuation, Tesla +3.56% on Musk’s share purchase. Nvidia slipped (-0.04%) on China antitrust news.
Despite broad weakness under the surface, the S&P 500 is now +12.47% YTD and has risen in 6 of the past 7 weeks—its strongest stretch in 2025.
Conclusion for S&P 500 today:
With sentiment anchored by trade optimism and tech leadership, momentum remains upward, but concentration in a few mega-cap names alongside weaker breadth suggests potential for near-term consolidation even as the broader index holds bullish bias.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6640
Resistance Level 2: 6660
Resistance Level 3: 6680
Support Level 1: 6575
Support Level 2: 6550
Support Level 3: 6530
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX & NDX : Stay heavy on positionsSPX & NDX : Stay heavy on positions (2x leverage)
- Market slowly shifting from sidelines to risk-on.
** This analysis is based solely on the quantification of crowd psychology.
It does not incorporate price action, trading volume, or macroeconomic indicators.
SPX updated.No sign of a turn as yetNo real reaso to sell as yet.The character of the chart needs to change
The Global Shadow Banking System1. Understanding Shadow Banking
1.1 Definition
Shadow banking refers to the system of credit intermediation that occurs outside the scope of traditional banking regulation. Coined by economist Paul McCulley in 2007, the term highlights how non-bank entities perform bank-like functions such as maturity transformation (borrowing short-term and lending long-term), liquidity transformation, and leverage creation—yet without the same safeguards, such as deposit insurance or central bank backstops.
1.2 Key Characteristics
Non-bank entities: Shadow banking is carried out by hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms, securitization vehicles, and other institutions.
Credit intermediation: It channels savings into investments, much like traditional banks.
Regulatory arbitrage: It often arises where financial activity moves into less regulated areas to avoid capital and liquidity requirements.
Opacity: Complex instruments and off-balance sheet entities make it difficult to track risks.
1.3 Distinction from Traditional Banking
Unlike regulated banks:
Shadow banks cannot access central bank liquidity in times of crisis.
They lack deposit insurance, increasing systemic vulnerability.
They rely heavily on short-term wholesale funding such as repurchase agreements (repos).
2. Historical Evolution of Shadow Banking
2.1 Early Developments
Shadow banking’s roots can be traced to the 1970s and 1980s, when deregulation in advanced economies allowed financial innovation to flourish. Rising global capital flows created demand for new instruments outside traditional bank lending.
2.2 Rise of Securitization
The 1980s–2000s saw the explosion of securitization, where loans (e.g., mortgages) were bundled into securities and sold to investors. Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and conduits became central actors in shadow banking, financing long-term assets with short-term borrowing.
2.3 Pre-Crisis Boom (2000–2007)
The shadow system expanded rapidly before the 2008 financial crisis. Investment banks, money market funds, and structured investment vehicles financed trillions in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). This system appeared efficient but was highly fragile.
2.4 The 2008 Financial Crisis
When U.S. subprime mortgage markets collapsed, shadow banks faced a sudden liquidity freeze. Lacking deposit insurance and central bank support, institutions like Lehman Brothers collapsed, triggering global contagion. The crisis revealed the systemic importance—and dangers—of shadow banking.
2.5 Post-Crisis Reconfiguration
After 2008, regulators tightened banking rules, pushing even more activities into the shadow system. Simultaneously, reforms such as tighter money market fund rules sought to contain systemic risks. Despite these efforts, shadow banking has continued to grow, especially in China and emerging markets.
3. Structure of the Shadow Banking System
The shadow banking universe is diverse, consisting of multiple actors and instruments.
3.1 Key Entities
Money Market Funds (MMFs) – Provide short-term financing by investing in highly liquid securities.
Hedge Funds & Private Equity – Use leverage to provide credit, often in riskier markets.
Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) – Finance long-term securities through short-term borrowing.
Finance Companies – Offer consumer and business loans without deposit funding.
Broker-Dealers – Rely on repo markets to fund securities inventories.
Securitization Conduits & SPVs – Issue asset-backed securities (ABS).
3.2 Instruments and Mechanisms
Repos (Repurchase Agreements) – Short-term loans secured by collateral.
Commercial Paper – Unsecured short-term debt issued by corporations or conduits.
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) – Bundled mortgage loans sold to investors.
Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) – Structured products pooling various debt instruments.
Derivatives – Instruments like credit default swaps (CDS) that transfer credit risk.
3.3 Interconnectedness
The system is deeply interconnected with traditional banks. Many shadow entities rely on bank credit lines, while banks invest in shadow assets. This interdependence amplifies systemic risk.
4. Global Dimensions of Shadow Banking
4.1 United States
The U.S. remains the epicenter, with trillions in assets managed by MMFs, hedge funds, and securitization vehicles. Its role in the 2008 crisis highlighted its global impact.
4.2 Europe
European banks historically relied on securitization and repo markets, making shadow banking integral to cross-border finance. Luxembourg and Ireland are major hubs due to favorable regulations.
4.3 China
China’s shadow banking system emerged in the 2000s as a response to tight bank lending quotas. Wealth management products (WMPs), trust companies, and informal lending channels fueled rapid credit growth. While supporting growth, they also raised concerns of hidden debt risks.
4.4 Emerging Markets
In Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, shadow banking fills credit gaps left by underdeveloped banking sectors. However, limited oversight raises systemic vulnerabilities.
5. Benefits of Shadow Banking
Despite its risks, shadow banking provides several advantages:
Credit Diversification – Expands funding beyond banks.
Market Liquidity – Enhances efficiency in capital markets.
Financial Innovation – Encourages new instruments and risk-sharing mechanisms.
Access to Credit – Supports SMEs and consumers underserved by traditional banks.
Global Capital Mobility – Facilitates international investment flows.
6. Risks and Challenges
6.1 Systemic Risk
Shadow banking increases interconnectedness, making financial crises more contagious.
6.2 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch
Borrowing short-term while investing in long-term assets creates vulnerability to runs.
6.3 Leverage
High leverage amplifies both profits and losses, making collapses more severe.
6.4 Opacity and Complexity
Structured products like CDOs obscure underlying risks.
6.5 Regulatory Arbitrage
Activities shift to less regulated domains, making oversight difficult.
6.6 Spillover to Traditional Banking
Banks are exposed through investments, credit lines, and funding dependencies.
Conclusion
The global shadow banking system is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it enhances financial diversity, supports credit creation, and fuels innovation. On the other, it introduces opacity, leverage, and systemic fragility that can destabilize economies. The 2008 crisis demonstrated how vulnerabilities in the shadow system can trigger global turmoil.
Going forward, regulators must adopt balanced approaches: tightening oversight without stifling beneficial innovation. International coordination is critical, given the cross-border nature of shadow banking. As financial technology evolves, the boundaries between traditional banks, shadow entities, and digital platforms will blur even further.
Ultimately, shadow banking is not merely a “shadow” but an integral part of modern finance—one that demands vigilance, transparency, and adaptive regulation to ensure it serves as a force for stability and growth rather than crisis and contagion.
What to do now that FEDs going to lower interest rates ?This is for traders who enjoys taking advantage of short term market movements. For investors who are holding on to great companies, just sit tight.
The first support level is the gap at 6023 price level. The 2nd level at 5689 is less likely but not impossible.
This fall will be good as US markets are over valued for a while and any falls will be a good accumulation point. Also, the month of September is also seasonally a down month so no hurry to get in. So do be patient and please DYODD.
A Tolled BellThe first bell has rung. A bridge is being paved across the $6000 range.
IF it blows up, it likely won't happen until the bridge is constructed and sentiment improves. Expect a few heartfelt endeavors to shoot above $6,660. Base case is long term crab market.
it's always the market of stockpickersS&P 500 (SPX): The uptrend continues, with the SPX reaching a new high and nearing a secondary target of 6,625. However, there are significant risks, including historically poor performance during the last ten trading days of September, which coincides with an expected Fed rate cut on September 17. Other risks include narrowing market breadth, NVIDIA's stock trading in a narrow range, and a "Dow Theory" divergence where the industrial average's breakout is unconfirmed by the transportation average.
SPX : close to a pullbackToday's close will mark Tom Demark TD SETUP 8.
TD SETUP 9 is in the cards on Tuesday 16th September, after which a small pullback is likely
S&P500 | H1 Rising Wedge | GTradingMethodHello again Traders
🧐 Market Overview:
The S&P is forming a rising wedge on the 1H chart. I don’t usually trade this pattern, but with the price approaching the wedge top, I see a potential short opportunity worth a small risk.
On the 4H chart, there’s an even larger rising wedge at play. My instinct is still that this could turn into a fake-out, so I’m monitoring lower timeframes for short setups that align with the bigger picture.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 9.45
Entry: 6 621.4
Stop Loss: 6 631.0
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 546.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 487.4
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts – I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
S&P500 | H1 Double Top | GTradingMethod👋 Hello traders,
Tried shorting a potential head and shoulders on the 1H chart earlier — it failed. Thankfully, one of my exit rules triggered before my stop loss, so the loss was small, but still not pleasant. That’s trading.
🧐 Market Overview:
The bigger picture remains the same. On the detailed side, I am looking for a potential double top on the hourly chart. RSI is making lower highs while price is making higher highs, which shows weakening buying momentum. For me, this is a non-negotiable variable when trading double tops and head & shoulders setups.
I’ll be waiting for a candle closure in my entry range, alongside a few more confirmations, before taking the next shot. Patience is key here.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.4
Entry: 6 598.4
Stop Loss: 6 608.3
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 567.9
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 557.9
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Losses are part of the process. The key is to keep them small, stick to your rules, and wait for probability to play out over time.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Follow me to catch my next setup, and let me know — do you think this head and shoulders will confirm, or will buyers push the S&P to fresh highs?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
S&P500 | H1 Head and shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders.
🧐 Market Overview:
I am still holding a short on the rising wedge visible on the 4-hour chart. While the S&P 500 has broken out to the upside of the wedge, there’s still a real chance this could be a fake out.
The RSI is showing overbought conditions across the 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes, which makes it difficult for price to push higher without cooling off first. From a probability standpoint, I see the short as more favorable here than chasing longs.
With hindsight I should have waited for a reversal pattern to open shorts when trying to trade the risking wedge on the 4 hour chart.
If the head and shoulders pattern on the 1H chart fails, then a possible double top on the 2H chart may form. I’ll post an update if that scenario plays out and I have time.
NB! I do not have confirmation to enter the head and shoulders short yet. It is only on my radar for now.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.8
Entry: 6 589.7
Stop Loss: 6 599
Take Profit 1 (50%): 6 560.2
Take Profit 2 (50%): 6 544.2
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
A favorable setup doesn’t guarantee success, but managing risk and aligning with probability is how I stay consistent over the long term.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — I’d like to hear them.
📌 Please note: This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
SPX500 ShortElite Analysis
Price entered structural liquidity
Executed off 30m TOB
Targeting lower liquidity pools
Applying the Nx BIAS indicator to US500After my latest thread about the 🛡️ Nx BIAS 🛡️ indicator for determining market bias, I decided to take a scalp trade as a backtesting exercise on the US500 pair.
Entry details:
Defined the DOL and Invalidation levels using the Nx Bias indicator on the 2Htimeframe.
Identified the area of interest and executed the entry on the 5m - 1m timeframe for the same pair.
Next steps and forward testing:
I will be testing this indicator more extensively. The main goal is to rely solely on it for bias determination under live market conditions to evaluate its real-time performance, moving beyond backtesting results.
Disclaimer: Do Your Own Research (DYOR).
Best regards,
Note: The indicator is not yet available and will be released soon under the name Nx Candle Bias.
SPX500 Holds Below 6,590 Pivot – Key Breakout Levels AheadSPX500 – Overview
The S&P 500 is showing bullish momentum but remains sensitive to the 6,590 pivot for confirmation of the next move.
📉 Bearish scenario: As long as price trades below 6,590, momentum favors a drop toward 6,571. A confirmed break under 6,571 would open the way to 6,550 → 6,527.
📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 6,590 would shift bias bullish, targeting 6,604 → 6,631.
Key Level
Pivot: 6,590
Resistance: 6,604 – 6,631
Support: 6,571 – 6,550 – 6,527
SPX: rte-cut hypeJust a week before the September FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 reached another fresh, new all-time highest level at 6.594 at Friday's trading session. The index managed to gain another 1,6% for the week. The latest move is sort of gearing-up for the forthcoming FOMC meeting, where the market is expecting to see a 25 bps cut by FED officials. The jobs and inflation figures posted during the week, showed further stabilisation in inflation levels, but also weakening of the US jobs market. Both figures are supportive of the Fed to make a decision over a quarter-point rate cut. However, analysts are noting that the tone and rhetoric of Fed Chair Powell in after the meeting press conference on September 17th, will be crucial for the next move of US equity markets. Certainly, this will mark the most important day for financial markets in the week ahead.
Tech companies are again the ones that are driving the market to the higher grounds, TSLA gained 7,36% on Friday, continuing a recent upward trend. Despite no major announcements from Tesla, the stock has gained nearly 12% over the past week, driven by investor optimism that declining interest rates could boost car sales. The artificial intelligence tech firm Super Micro Computer jumped 6% after announcing it had begun volume shipments of its Nvidia Blackwell Ultra solutions to customers globally. Warner Bros Discovery rose nearly 8%, building on Thursday’s 29% surge, after reports in the news indicated that Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer.
EURUSD: gearing up for FOMCThe Non-farm payrolls annual revision showed a drop of -911K jobs. Analysts are noting that this is another indicator of a cooling US jobs market. The Producers price Index in August dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching 2,6% on a yearly basis. The core PPI also dropped by -0,1%. Both indicators were below market estimates of 0,3% for the month. The Inflation rate in August reached 0,4% for the month and 2,9% on a yearly basis. The core inflation remains a bit elevated at level of 0,3% for month and 3,1% y/y. Friday brought Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary figures for September at 51,8, which was a bit below forecasted 54,9. Inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4,8%.
The ECB meeting was held during the previous week, where ECB members left interest rates unchanged. The Deposit Facility Rates held at 2%, while Marginal Lending Rate at 2,4%. This was in line with market expectations, considering external challenges for the EU economy, in terms of trade tariffs. The balance of trade in July in Germany reached euro 14,7B, another month with missed market expectations of euro 15,4B. The Industrial Production in July in Germany was higher by 1,3%, above market estimate of 1%.
For the second week in a row, the eurusd currency pair was moving within a relatively short range. There were no surprises when the ECB interest rate decision was in question, so the market switched its attention to the forthcoming FOMC meeting. The trading range was between 1,1777 down to 1,1663. The RSI continues to oscillate around the 50 level, showing that the market is currently not heaving a clear path toward either side. The MA50 slowly started to converge toward the MA200, but the distance between lines shows that the potential cross is still not in store.
As already mentioned, the week ahead brings the September FOMC meeting. This one is going to be especially significant, as the market is highly expecting to see the 25 bps cut. Usually , prior to meeting, market nervousness increases, in which sense, some increased volatility might be in store for the currency pair. Current charts are showing potential for a move toward both sides. On the lower grounds, there is potential for 1,1650 to be tested shortly, while on the opposite side, 1,1780 is waiting to be tested for a potential for higher grounds.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Wholesale Prices in Germany in August, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in September in Germany, Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in August, Producers Price Index in August in Germany.
USD: Retail Sales in August, Building Permits preliminary for August, Housing Starts in August, FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday, September 17th, with a press conference after the meeting.
