AUD/USD SHORT AUD/USD SHORT " break of a support area and retest + 61.8% fib retracement + 50 ema dynamic resistance "
Trade ideas
AUD/USD – Smart Money Building Quietly at the BottomThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6510, consolidating after an extended bearish move. From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, price action suggests that institutional players may be absorbing liquidity at discounted prices, hinting at a potential accumulation phase before driving price upward to collect liquidity at higher zones.
💭 1️⃣ Market Structure – When Price Pauses to “Take a Breath”
Following a series of bearish legs, AUD/USD has formed a Market Structure Shift (MSS) near the 0.6460 zone, signaling early signs of weakening bearish momentum.
Currently, price is holding within 0.6500 – 0.6510, forming a stable base of support. If this structure holds, it may serve as the foundation for a short-term bullish correction targeting the upper supply zones.
Each dip into the lower range has shown long lower wicks and narrow candle bodies — a classic footprint of Smart Money absorbing sell-side liquidity in preparation for accumulation.
🩶 2️⃣ Supply & Demand Zones – Footprints of Smart Money
Karina is closely monitoring three key structural zones:
Demand Zones:
0.6462 – 0.6432: A strong demand base where price has reacted multiple times — likely a zone of institutional accumulation.
0.6504: A short-term demand area currently being tested, acting as the first layer of support.
Supply Zones:
0.6570: A local supply zone where price may react upon retracement.
0.6642 – 0.6667: A higher supply zone filled with resting buy-side liquidity — potential target area for the next institutional move.
🧭 3️⃣ Liquidity Context – When Smart Money Buys Low to Sell High
The liquidity landscape shows that sell-side liquidity has already been swept near 0.6460, while buy-side liquidity remains untouched around 0.6618 – 0.6707.
This aligns perfectly with a common SMC narrative:
Smart Money absorbs liquidity below → builds structure → drives price upward to collect liquidity above.
If price maintains structure above 0.6504 – 0.6462, we could see a bullish displacement toward the next liquidity pools around 0.6570 and 0.6640 – 0.6660.
🌙 4️⃣ Trade Scenario – Follow Smart Money, Don’t Fight It
Karina’s current bias favors buying from discount zones once structure confirms a shift.
Entry: 0.6465 – 0.6500
Stop Loss: below 0.6430
Take Profit: 0.6570 – 0.6660
This setup aligns with institutional logic — buy where Smart Money accumulates, take profit where they distribute.
🌷 5️⃣ Reflection – When the Market Is Quiet, Institutions Are Working
The market doesn’t need loud volatility to tell a story — often, quiet accumulation speaks the loudest.
To Karina, this phase is about patience and observation — letting structure reveal its intent instead of rushing into noise.
Right now, the market feels like it’s taking a deep breath before its next move. Smart Money usually moves in silence — they buy low, and sell high. 🌸
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D6| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D6| Y25 |
📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
OANDA:AUDUSD
Stop!Loss|Market View: AUDUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the AUDUSD currency pair☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: 0.64398
💰TP: 0.63482
⛔️SL: 0.64782
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: The likelihood of a strengthening USD in the medium term remains, meaning major pairs will likely remain under pressure from the American currency until the end of the year. One of the best alternatives for the strength of the US dollar seems to be the AUDUSD. Currently, the most promising sell scenario appears to be a breakout of support near 0.64480, with downside targets at 0.64000 and 0.63500.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
SHORTIF you draw a weekly trendline, you will see a clear downside move.
In a 4h, it keeps breaking the lows. We observe the current price is retesting the supply along the base, there is fvg which above we may have a clear POI.
WE may enter a short order based on confirmation style.
Short trade
Pair: AUDUSD
Direction: Sell-Side Trade
Date: Wed 5th Nov 25
Time: 1:00 am
Session: London Session AM
Timeframe: 1 Hour
🔹 Trade Details
Metric Value
Entry 0.64944
Profit Level (TP) 0.64437 (+0.73 %)
Stop Level (SL) 0.64995 (–0.12 %)
Risk–Reward (RR) 5.93 R
🔸 Technical Context
Market Structure:
Price completed a retracement into premium following a previous impulsive leg down.
The retest into the breaker block + KAMA resistance zone (0.6490–0.6500) acted as a re-entry for continuation.
🔹 Narrative & Bias
AUDUSD continues to reflect bearish sentiment following a USD reaccumulation phase.
The rejection from premium levels within the established downtrend suggests sellers are firmly in control, with order flow showing progressively lower highs and BOS confirmations across multiple sessions.
Macro Correlation:
AUD weakness mirrors declining commodity sentiment and a dovish RBA stance.
USD demand remains supported by a risk-off tone following the NASDAQ pullback and the markdown in ETHUSDT.
Projection:
Expect continued draw on liquidity toward 0.6440–0.6430, with potential to extend below 0.6400 if intraday momentum persists. The short bias remains intact as long as the price remains below 0.6500.
Bearish reversal off 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6537
1st Support: 0.6442
1st Resistance: 0.6606
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUD/USD) Bearish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of AUD/USD (Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar) – Bearish Continuation Setup
Timeframe: 1H (IC Markets)
Concepts: Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Market Structure, Fair Value Gap (FVG), EMA Confluence
---
Market Structure Overview
The overall structure remains bearish, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price is trading within a descending channel, respecting both upper and lower trendlines.
The recent impulsive bearish leg suggests continuation after a corrective retracement.
---
Key Technical Zones
Retracement Zone (Sell Area):
0.5 – 0.79 Fibonacci levels mark the premium short zone.
Overlaps with a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and supply area, making it a strong potential sell zone.
Zone: 0.6520 – 0.6540
EMA Confluence:
EMA-50 ≈ 0.6528
EMA-200 ≈ 0.6540
Both EMAs are positioned near the FVG zone, confirming dynamic resistance.
---
Scenario Plan
1. Expect a short-term retracement toward the 0.652–0.654 region.
2. Look for bearish rejection or lower-timeframe BOS confirmation within the zone.
3. Anticipate continuation to the lower channel boundary, aligning with target point 0.6458.
---
Targets
Next Reaction Zone: 0.6500 (intermediate liquidity area)
Final Bearish Target: 0.6458 – marked on chart as the target point
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Bias:
> Bearish – Structure, EMAs, and FVG confluence all favor a downside continuation after a corrective pullback.
---
please support boost 🚀 this analysis
Buy AUDUSD at 0.65000 This trade is a P Line + SL it should continue going up until it hits the WL barrier (Yellow) and then will retrace back down again it was posted a little late but can keep TP till the yellow barrier area
AUDUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the AUDUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 0.6496
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 0.6533
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AUDUSD November 2025 fundamental analysisAustralian Dollar (AUD): Inflation Surprise Supports Hold
Reserve Bank of Australia Stance
The Australian Dollar received a powerful boost from the September quarter inflation data released on October 29, which delivered a significant upside surprise. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 3.2% year-on-year, well above the RBA's 2-3% target midpoint. More importantly, the RBA's preferred trimmed mean measure climbed 1.0% quarterly (beating 0.8% expectations and the RBA's August forecast of 0.6%), pushing the annual rate to 3.0%—the first uptick since December 2022.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock had explicitly stated earlier in the week that a 0.9% quarterly rise in trimmed mean inflation would be viewed as a "material miss". At 1.0%, the threshold was decisively crossed. Bullock also described the labor market as "a little tight" despite unemployment rising to 4.5%, and emphasized the RBA's unwillingness to "leap at a single number".
Rate Cut Expectations Pushed Back
The inflation surprise has dramatically reshaped rate cut expectations. The November 4 meeting confirmed the decision to hold rates steady for the moment, and the first 25 basis point cut has been delayed from February 2026 to May 2026. This represents a stark shift from earlier expectations for near-term easing. The RBA cash rate remains at 3.60%, providing a substantial yield advantage over other major central banks.
November Outlook: Very Bullish
The Australian Dollar is the clear standout for November strength. AUD/USD surged to a three-week high of 0.6607 following the inflation data, and technical analysis suggests further upside potential toward 0.6706. The currency benefits from multiple tailwinds: delayed rate cuts relative to other central banks, particularly the Fed; buoyant risk sentiment following the preliminary US-China trade framework; and strong commodity prices, including copper near three-month highs. Against the weaker commodity currencies like CAD and NZD, the Australian Dollar is exceptionally well-positioned.
United States Dollar (USD): Cautious Strength Amid Economic Resilience
Monetary Policy: Fed's Hawkish Pause in Easing Cycle
The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the lowest since 2022. However, the tone accompanying this decision was notably cautious. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is "not a foregone conclusion," effectively pushing back against market expectations that had priced in an 87.7% probability of another 25bps reduction in October and 62% odds for December.
This hawkish messaging reflects the Fed's assessment of persistently elevated inflation, which has risen for five consecutive months and currently stands at 3.0% for both headline and core measures as of September. The central bank cited "increasing downside risks to employment" but noted that Powell explicitly stated he does not anticipate further deterioration in the labor market. The decision saw two dissenting votes—one favoring a 50bps cut and another preferring to hold rates steady—highlighting the divided nature of current Fed thinking.
Economic Fundamentals: Resilience Defying Expectations
The US economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of historically high tariffs (effective rate of 16-17%, highest since 1934) and a prolonged government shutdown exceeding five weeks. After contracting -0.6% in Q1 2025, GDP rebounded sharply to 3.8% in Q2, with Q3 tracking similarly strong at 3-4% according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. This growth is partly attributed to AI-related spending, which accounts for more than half of US growth this year.
However, the government shutdown—affecting 1.4 million federal employees with roughly half furloughed and half working without pay—poses growing risks. A rule of thumb suggests every week of shutdown shaves 0.1% off GDP. The lack of timely economic data due to the shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, potentially supporting a cautious approach in November and December.
November Outlook: Dollar Strength with Caveats
For November 2025, the USD maintains a positive outlook supported by several factors. The relative economic resilience compared to other major economies, higher interest rate differentials (3.875% vs most G10 currencies), and ongoing safe-haven demand underpin dollar strength. However, this strength is tempered by the prolonged government shutdown, fiscal concerns, and the gradual Fed easing trajectory.
The dollar's performance will likely hinge on three key developments: resolution of the government shutdown, clarity on the December Fed decision, and the Supreme Court hearing on November 5 regarding the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Market positioning shows the Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 98, with technical resistance at 99.75 representing a key threshold for sustained strength.
Verdict
Given the political insecurities surrounding the USD and AUD's unwavering strength, our conclusion for AUD/USD in November is BUY .
0.6600 RETEST?The 1st of August saw price break below the 0.6600 - 0.6660 zone in an impulsive move to the downside. Since then, the Aussie has traded lower proceeded by a period of choppy price action. As a trend-trader I am out of the markets once we get into sideways movement and one of the rules I follow is "Patience Is A Position". It is at the beginning of November we have started to see a shift in trend and for the first time since August, price is now back at the 0.6600 - 0.6660 zone and is currently trading just below. What I am looking for, is a swing trade and a reason to short the market from this point. To do so, I would need to see a shift in market structure on lower timeframes such as M5; M15, M30 or H1. Once the market structure on the lower timeframe comes into alignment with a higher timeframe; I execute. The set-up becomes void if price breaches the identified zone of interest by closing beyond the zone and there is no shift in market structure. This means going back to the drawing board; looking at how the market is behaving, and generating a fresh idea...or staying in the sidelines until a familiar pattern re-emerges.
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast UPDATED -Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |
📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast UPDATED.
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
OANDA:AUDUSD
AUDUSD: Major Support, Do Not Miss The Move!Hi everyone,
AUDUSD has perfectly fulfilled my previous idea, by successfully moving down to our target and achieving it. zones are very necessary and important when it comes to set up and entry, especially support and resistance.
In regards to the structure we can observe how the price respected the major resistance, qualifying it as the principal place to short. the pair is currently at the major support, which there is assumption of bullish at this point.
Possible outline;
More reversal confirmation above the support, would set off upward rise to 0.6597 as the potential target.
Meanwhile a clear breakdown below the support level, would trigger continuous sell.
Thanks for reading.
AUDUSD sell setupOne of the most beautiful sell setup this week. AUDUSD swept a noticeable liquidity high at Supply level, then after CPI news yesterday confirming dollar strength, This led to clear Market structure shift (mss) on XXX/USD pairs.
Retest of the move today confirmed downward pressure on the pair. OB mitigation + imb
As far as there's a prescence of market gap below, my bearish bias is not yet invalidated.
Learn!
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |📅 Q4 | W45 | D5| Y25 |
📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast
🔍 Analysis Approach:
I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on:
Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️
Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐
Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎
Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅
This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price.
💡 My Motto:
"Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge."
A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐
⚠️ Losses?
They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲
They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️
🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast.
Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital
— FRNGT 🚀
OANDA:AUDUSD
AUDUSD - Keep Selling - USD's last state was BullUSD's last state was Bull. So, USD keeps with Bull, because nobody know exact USA Economic Data.
Good Luck.
SL : 0.66300
TP : 0.63100
AUDUSD H4 | Bearish Reaction Off Key ResistanceAUDUSD is rising towards our sell entry, which is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the H4 Fair Value Gap and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
The stop loss a multi-swing high resistance level, at 0.6561, while the take profit is a swing low support level at 0.64662.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
HUNTING USD FOR THIS WEEK 2Same scenario like NZDUSD. Wait to see how the price will react on the zone. Goodluck to everyone.
AUDUSD(20251105)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
The US government shutdown stalemate continues, with the 35-day record about to be broken.
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
0.6502
Support and Resistance Levels:
0.6560
0.6538
0.6524
0.6479
0.6465
0.6443
Trading Strategy:
Consider buying if the price breaks above 0.6502, with a first target price of 0.6524.
Consider selling if the price breaks below 0.6479, with a first target price of 0.6465.
AUDUSD in a falling wedge: ready for a strong bullish breakoutThe AUDUSD chart looks particularly intriguing right now. Recently, the pair has taken on a new, more confident character, shaping into a structure that radiates optimism.
The latest market interaction is especially eye-catching; it reveals the first hints of a potential rebound, while the previous bearish momentum is slowly fading away. Low-volume candles suggest market exhaustion, often the calm before a fresh upward move.
My target stands around 0.65450. If this scenario unfolds, we could witness a stunning price evolution, almost like a dramatic scene building after weeks of anticipation.
The setup is both elegant and promising, a story being written in real time, one that demands patience and confirmation before revealing its full potential.
While a bearish scenario remains possible, given the solid support below, I continue to lean bullish. The current structure exudes confidence, balance, and the quiet strength of a market preparing to rise again.
Will AUD/USD Continue Its Downswing?AUD/USD 1-hour chart - My Trade (Do NOT take this trade. It's only a report on my current position)
Trade Direction: SELL
Current Price: 0.6490
Entry Price: 0.6508 (sell limit at broken support → resistance band 0.6505–0.6512)
Stop Loss: 0.6532 (above recent H1 lower-high cluster; includes ~2-pip spread)
Take Profit: 0.6448 (return to October swing-low liquidity zone 0.6445–0.6450)
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.50
Confidence: 9.1/10
Invalidation / Abandon: Stand down if an H1 candle closes above 0.6535 or if price prints a clear higher high above 0.6560 (structure shifts to bullish).
Justification: On H1, AUD/USD is in a clean downswing of lower highs and lower lows from ~0.662, with fresh breakdowns through 0.6510 and only shallow bounces. Selling a pullback to 0.6508 fades the S→R retest while aligning with session dynamics into NY close/Asia open. The SL 0.6532 sits beyond the last H1 LH stack to reduce stop-outs; TP 0.6448 targets the visible demand pocket around prior October lows. Confluence: bearish structure, S→R retest near the round number (0.6500), and volatility-fit distances (≈24-pip risk for ≈60-pip reward, ≥2R)
AUD/USD Bears Slam into Support- Break or Bounce?The Australian Dollar is poised to snap a three-week rally with AUD/USD marking a fifth consecutive daily decline on the heels of the RBA rate decision. The decline takes Aussie into the median-line of the yearly uptrend, and the focus now turns to whether price can stabilize here or if a deeper decline will unfold into November trade.
Weekly support remains with the July low-week close (LWC) at 6469. Note that the 2022 trendline (red) converges on this level over the next few weeks and a break / weekly close below would suggest a more significant high is in place / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 38.2% retracement / 52-week moving average at 6404/15 and the 100% extension of the September decline / February high-week close (HWC) at 6351/57- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation rests with the 2025 LWC at 6290.
Resistance stands with the 2025 HWC and the 61.8% retracement of the September decline at 6592-6605. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and further highlights the technical significance of this region. A topside breach / close above this hurdle would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in pace / resumption of the yearly uptrend. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 high-close at 6650 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6723.
Bottom line: AUD/USD is testing uptrend support on the heels of the RBA rate decision, and the focus is on possible inflection off the median-line. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 6605 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6469 needed to fuel the next leg of this decline within the broader uptrend.
-MB
