USDAUX trade ideas
AUD/USD part 2.my trading journal continued.
trend line of ascending triangle bottom appears to be holding. Road map still valid. looking for a entry point at end of 1 hour chart for leg up before a major downward move. (2 potential trades on the table).
remember today some big news out of US today. i final spike down on 5 minute is on the cards.
AUDUSD H4| Bearish reversal off 38.2% Fibonacci resistanceAussie (AUD/USD) is rising towards the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 0.6541, which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 0.6580, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 0.6467, which is a swing low support.
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AUDUSD FORECASTLooking into the AUDUSD today, the market is really looking Nice. Waiting for the market to reach at the area of focus. Looking to take as a sell limit order waiting for the price to Liquidate then taking after gaining volume and power to push to the downside, it gives me the high probability to looking into this pair.
AUDUSD InsightHello to all subscribers.
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Key Points
- According to the U.S. June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the seasonally adjusted number of job openings was 7.437 million, a decrease of 275,000 from the previous month, falling short of the market expectation of 7.55 million.
- During high-level talks between the U.S. and China held in Stockholm, Sweden, both sides reportedly agreed to extend the tariff suspension measure for an additional 90 days.
- While the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in the July FOMC meeting, there is growing anticipation for a dovish stance suggesting a possible rate cut in September.
This Week's Major Economic Events
+ July 30: Germany Q2 GDP, U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (July), U.S. Q2 GDP, Bank of Canada rate decision, FOMC meeting results announcement
+ July 31: Bank of Japan rate decision, Germany July Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
+ August 1: Eurozone July CPI, U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. July Unemployment Rate
AUDUSD Chart Analysis
The pair recently climbed above the 0.66000 level but has since reversed, giving back gains. However, both higher highs and higher lows are being established, suggesting the current pullback is part of a gradual uptrend. A continued bullish outlook is expected over the long term, with a projected high around the 0.69000 level.
AUDUSD Analysis – Bullish Structure Still IntactAUDUSD is trading within a clear ascending channel on the H4 chart. After dropping from the FVG zone around 0.65800, price has reacted well to the lower boundary support near 0.64650.
Currently, price action suggests the potential formation of a short-term bottom. If this level holds and the pair rebounds, the next target could be the red FVG zone near 0.65400.
Recent Supporting News:
U.S. consumer confidence slightly weakened, causing the dollar to cool off — offering technical rebound support for AUD.
Trading Strategy:
Prefer short-term Buys near 0.64650 if a confirmed bounce appears, with target around 0.65400. Be cautious if price breaks below the ascending channel.
Do you think AUD will continue to rise within this bullish channel?
Surely the RBA Must Cut Rates Now?The RBA defied expectations of a cut in July, despite soft trimmed mean inflation figures in the monthly CPI report. The quarterly figures have now dropped, which I suspect leaves little wriggle room to hold at 2.85% in August. I 6ake a look at the quarterly and monthly inflation prints that matter, then wrap up on AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Potential bullish reversal?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which is a swing low support, and could rise to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.6502
1st Support: 0.6468
1st Resistance: 0.6558
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AUDUSD Still early days
20% in me:
Unless strong bullish fundamentals present themselves or the big boys with the big bucks drive a bullish push anywhere from 0.65784 or resistance, I would be looking to sell.
Buy outside the resistance box
TP:0.66600 new immediate high?
Please also consider price action as there are 2 previous rejections in the 0.65784 price area.
80% in me:
-Australia is heavily tied to China via exports
RBA rate cuts?
Falling iron ore prices...
-Perfect price action channel trade. SELL at resistance BUY at support. Bullish long term, bearish short term.
-fib 0.382 downward continuation and close below 0.65784
-Looking for a break below the upward sloping trendline HARD sell
-safer option: wait for a 0.65780 retest, below the upward sloping trendline sells and make bank.
TP: 0.6500
THOUGHTS?
Potential bearish drop?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is rising toward the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6532
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6580
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.6467
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
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AUDUSD BUYThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6520 on Tuesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the 50 mark, indicating that a bearish bias is active. Additionally, the pair is positioned below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is weaker.
The US and EU reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that sets 15% tariffs on most European goods, taking effect on August 1. This deal has ended a months-long stand-off, per Bloomberg.
Traders keep their eyes on further developments in the US-China trade talks. The discussions are set to resume on Tuesday after top economic officials from both nations held over five hours of negotiations in Stockholm on Monday. The purpose of this meeting is to resolve ongoing disputes and extend their trade truce by another three months.
US Treasury Chief Scott Bessent met with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng at Sweden’s Rosenbad government offices. The meeting comes ahead of an August 12 deadline to finalize a long-term tariff agreement with the Trump administration, building on preliminary deals reached in May and June that had helped ease tensions.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate steady between 4.25% and 4.50% at its July meeting. The FOMC press conference will be observed for any signs that rate cuts may start in September.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to closely watch the June labor force data and second-quarter inflation figures before deciding on a potential rate cut. Both the monthly and quarterly CPI reports are scheduled for release later this week.
SUPPORT 0.65593
SUPPORT 0.65424
SUPPORT 0.65593
RESISTSNCE 0.65050
RESISTANCE 0.64973
AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25📊 AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25
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FX:AUDUSD
Trade Setup: AUDUSD – Short Opportunity Identified A fresh sel Trade Setup: AUDUSD – Short Opportunity Identified
A fresh sell opportunity on AUDUSD has been spotted, backed by bearish market structure, technical resistance, and macroeconomic sentiment favoring a downside move. AUDUSD is currently trading near a key resistance zone around 0.65250, where the price has previously failed to break higher.
The market has shown repeated rejections near this level, indicating potential for a bearish reversal.
The entry at 0.65239 is strategically positioned just below resistance, allowing traders to catch the move early before momentum builds.
The first target at 0.65150 is a short-term intraday support level and offers a quick, low-risk profit opportunity.
The second target of 0.65000 is a psychologically important level and a common magnet for price action in downward trends.
The third target at 0.64890 aligns with a previous swing low, making it a strong candidate for extended profit-taking if momentum continues.
The stop loss at 0.65340 is placed above the resistance and recent high to minimize losses while giving the trade enough room