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U.S. DOLLAR / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REFERENCE RATE

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Bearish drop off?The Aussie (AUD/USD) has rejected off the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance, and could drop to the 50% Fibonacci support. Pivot: 0.6593 1st Support: 0.6505 1st Resistance: 0.6589 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
AUD/USD Watching the Ceiling and FloorThis is just my analysis, not financial advice. On this 4H AUD/USD chart, I see two important levels: Ceiling (Red Line – 0.65688): Price is testing this zone. Often, markets slow down or turn here, but sometimes they break through. Floor (Green Line – 0.64146): If price falls to this area, it has bounced before, so I’m watching it as a possible reaction point. Right now, price is sitting closer to the ceiling. I’ll be watching to see if it breaks higher or if sellers step in. I’m not telling anyone what to do—this is just how I see the chart and a simple way to mark levels that matter to me.
Short
by CarlosJuiceZapataJr.
AUDUSD Pullback Toward 0.65000 as Dollar Weakens Ahead of US PCEHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDUSD for a buying opportunity around the 0.65000 zone. AUDUSD is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level. Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is retracing after recent highs. Key level in focus: 0.65000 — an important area where buyers may look to step in. Fundamentals: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is breaking below 98.100 support, pointing to further downside. A bearish DXY combined with bullish Gold strengthens the case for AUDUSD upside. Event risk: Today’s US PCE release is key. A soft print would reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance, supporting dollar weakness. A hot print could complicate the bearish dollar narrative. Next move: Monitoring how AUDUSD reacts around 0.65000 to assess whether buyers regain control or if deeper correction unfolds. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
20
AUD/USD – Last Push Before September Weakness?1. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are currently short on AUD/USD, with an average entry around 0.6459. Historically, when retail positioning is heavily skewed to one side, the market often moves in the opposite direction. This suggests short-term upside potential (contrarian perspective). 2. COT Report (AUD & USD Index) AUD (CME): Non-Commercials remain heavily short (129k vs 28k long), keeping speculative positioning bearish on AUD. However, Commercials significantly increased their long exposure (+10,892), indicating institutional accumulation. USD Index (ICE): Non-Commercials hold 19k shorts vs 13k longs, showing a bearish tilt on USD, with additional shorts added (+1,916). Commercials remain net long (12k vs 6k short), defending dollar strength. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Speculators remain bearish on AUD and moderately bearish on USD. This divergence suggests potential sideways movement or consolidation in the short term. 3. Seasonality (September) Historically, September has been a weak month for AUD/USD, with negative performance across the past 5–15 years. Seasonal curves confirm a bearish bias, especially in the first half of the month. 4. Technical Analysis Supply Zone: Approaching strong weekly/monthly supply at 0.6600–0.6650. RSI: Rising toward overbought, pointing to possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. Structure: Price may complete a test of 0.6600–0.6650 before retracing back to demand zones at 0.6450 and 0.6400. Trend Dynamics: The medium-term trend remains bearish, with corrective rallies providing opportunities to short. Operational Outlook Short-term Bias (1–2 weeks): Potential final push toward 0.6600–0.6650, driven by contrarian sentiment and COT divergence. Medium-term Bias (September): Expected weakness with downside targets at 0.6450 → 0.6400, aligned with seasonality and speculative positioning. Strategy: Look for short reversal setups around 0.6600–0.6650 with H4/H1 confirmation (structure break or engulfing pattern). Stop above 0.6700, targets at 0.6450 / 0.6400.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Australian dollar extends gains, hits three-week highThe Australian dollar is coming off a positive week and has extended its gains on Monday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6556, up 0.27% on the day. Earlier, the Aussie rose as high as 0.6560, its highest level since August 11. With US markets closed for Labor Day, we're unlikely to see stronger movement from AUD/USD during the day. China's manufacturing sector continues to contract and that could spell trouble for the Australian economy and the Aussie. China's manufacturing PMI for August inched higher to 49.4 from 49.3 in August. This missed the market forecast of 49.5 and marked the fight straight month of contraction in manufacturing. The manufacturing industry has been dampened by weak global demand and US tariffs on Chinese products. The drop in manufacturing activity means there has been less demand for iron ore from Australia, which is used in the production of steel. This has resulted in a decline in iron ore prices, which has weighed on the Australian dollar and dampened Australia's export-reliant economy. The US core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, ticked higher to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. This matched the market estimate and was a five-month high. Monthly, core PCE rose 0.3%, unchanged from June and in line with the market estimate. The slight rise in US core inflation has raised expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September 17 meeting to 89%, up from 86% just before the core PCE release on Friday. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 06552. Above, there is resistance at 0.6563 and 0.6578 0.6537 and 0.6526 are providing support
by OANDA
Long trade 📓 Trade Journal Entry Pair: AUD/USD Date: Friday, 29th August 2025 Session: London → New York AM Timeframe: 4 Hour 🟢 Trade Type Buyside Trade (Long Position) 📌 Entry Details Entry: 0.65270 Profit Target: 0.65653 (+0.59%) Stop Loss: 0.65233 (−0.06%) Risk-to-Reward (RR): 10.3 📊 Technical Confluence EMA/WMA Levels: EMA: 0.65346 WMA: 0.65223 Key Structure: Price reclaimed mid-range following deep retracement (0.75 fib zone). Strong accumulation seen on prior sessions, indicating breakout potential. Entry aligns with EMA/WMA confluence and bullish breakout above liquidity base. Volume Profile: Volume: 7.72k ticks — strong confirmation for bullish continuation. Buying pressure consistent into London → NY transition. 🔎 Narrative / Trade Idea AUD/USD has been consolidating after sweeping lows earlier in August. Price reclaimed structure above 0.6523 and EMA/WMA, validating bullish continuation. Entry taken on confirmation at 0.6527, targeting 0.6565 supply.
Long
by davidjulien369
1
AUDUSD - LONG🚀 Yo Edgeflow — Bias for today is live! 🎯 100% model-driven. No trend-line art, no gut calls. Just a repeatable institutional process delivered every day at London Open 🧠 What Chronex does (bird’s-eye view) - Scans all 28 major FX pairs every session. - Ranks each currency’s relative strength / weakness from multi-TF data. - Pairs strongest vs. weakest to create a tight outlook list. - Adds built-in risk filters → posts one clean table: *Direction · Conviction · Entry zone · SL*. 📍 Today’s Playbook: Checklist H1 Structure: Bullish H1 Orderflow: Bullish m15 Orderflow: Bullish Entry Model: Chain Risks 1. Do we have economic high impact news release? Later NY 2. Any higher-timeframe counter-trend zones? None 3. Has better zone above/below? None 💬 Drop questions, challenge the outlook, or share your own setups below!
Long
by darksheeptrades
AUDUSD Daily Chart Analysis -Q3 W35 D1 Y25📊 AUDUSD Daily Chart Analysis 📅 Q3 W35 D1 Y25 Good day, Traders 👋 AUDUSD is currently showing potential for both 🔼 long and 🔽 short positions, with a clearly defined trading range visible on the higher time frames 🕰️. While the overall bias remains bullish 📈, a break in structure from the highs ⛔—paired with strong confirmation—could open the door to a short position 📉. I trade and teach using SMC (Smart Money Concepts) 🧠💰, applying a top-down analysis 🔍 to identify high-probability areas. These zones are refined on the lower time frames ⏳, where I wait for a break of structure 🧱 that meets my entry criteria ✅ before executing any trades. Wishing you the best on your trading journey 🚀📈 — FRGNT 🔐 FX:AUDUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
USDCHF — Watch the Floor at 0.81714Summary Price is standing on a floor at 0.81714. If that floor breaks, price could fall down to the “basement” at 0.78722. This is only my idea, not advice. Description I like to think of price like a person in a house. Right now, they are standing on the floor at 0.81714. If that floor breaks, they can fall down to the lower levels: 0.8050, then 0.7950, and maybe all the way to the basement at 0.78722. If the floor holds, price might instead climb the stairs up toward 0.8220. What I’m watching: I want to see a strong red candle close under 0.81714 before thinking the floor is broken. If price jumps back above 0.8220, then my idea is wrong. Disclaimer This is just my personal view for learning. It is not financial advice or a trade signal.
Long
by CarlosJuiceZapataJr.
3
AUDUSD H4 | Could the Aussie Be Setting Up for a Reversal?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is reacting off the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and could reverse from this level to the take profit. Sell entry is at 0.6550, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss is at 0.6590, which is a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 0.6500, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
AUD/USD Supply Rejection Setup + DXY HTF alignment AUD/USD is trading into a significant unmitigated supply POI that overlaps with an imbalance (IMB), creating a strong confluence zone for potential rejection. Unmitigated POI + IMB: Price has rallied directly into the shaded supply area around 0.6550–0.6570, which remains untested from previous distribution. This zone combines both a supply POI and an imbalance, making it a high-probability reversal region. FVGs Below: Two large Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain unmitigated on the downside, highlighted in green. These gaps act as magnets for price, suggesting that if sellers engage at the supply zone, price could retrace deeply to fill them. Context: The prior bearish leg created displacement and inefficiency, and this current rally can be viewed as corrective orderflow returning into premium pricing. A rejection here aligns with a continuation of the broader bearish narrative. Outlook: As long as price respects the 0.6550–0.6570 supply/imbalance region, sellers have the upper hand, targeting the FVGs below at 0.6490–0.6470 and potentially deeper toward 0.6420–0.6400.
Short
by Casper10222
2
Bearish Reversal Forming off Key Resistance?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.6543 1st Support: 0.6383 1st Resistance: 0.6644 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
AUDUSD| Bullish Bias - Momentum Holding Strong🔹 HTF (4H): Structure shows clear bullish intent with strong momentum to the upside. Large bullish candles confirm continuation potential. 🔹 MTF (30M): Price cleared liquidity, mitigated the OB, and refined structure for continuation longs. 🔹 LTF (5M): A CHoCH confirmed directional shift, leading to bullish runs toward the highs. 🔹 Execution Plan: Waiting for price to mitigate my marked OB before reloading longs to target major highs. Until then, patience — let smart money defend the level before we step back in. 🔹 Mindset Note: The market is delivering. Our role is to wait for the OB to be tapped and then execute with precision.
Long
by Juicemannn
AUDUSD Q3 W36 Y25 ForecastHigher Time Frame Overview (Weekly/Da🔎 AUDUSD Q3 W36 Y25 Forecast 🧠 Higher Time Frame Overview (Weekly/Daily) There hasn’t been much aggressive movement on the higher timeframes, particularly the weekly and daily charts. That said: The 50 EMA is sitting comfortably in the middle of price action for August, suggesting consolidation or a clear range-bound market. This kind of environment offers defined trading ranges, making lower timeframe setups more actionable for both swing and intraday traders. ✅ Plan of Action 🔹 Bullish Bias on Higher Time Frames Week 35 closed with strong bullish price action, pushing the daily candle above the 50EMA. This provides confirmation for a higher-probability long setup from range lows. The weekly candle also supports bullish continuation, forming a solid base and momentum structure. 🔔 Bias: Bullish on higher time frames — prefer buying from support levels or imbalance zones. 🔍 Lower Time Frame Strategy (4H / 15M) 🔸 4H Analysis A clear 4H order block led to the creation of a lower low, identifying a potential point of interest (POI) for a pullback and intraday short. Target for the short idea includes: Weekly imbalance zone Daily 50EMA Weekly 50EMA ⚠️ Short positions should be considered countertrend, so: Stop-losses should be moved to breakeven quickly once structural levels are broken. Use tight risk management and watch for early signs of rejection from key zones. 🔸 15-Minute Confirmation Looking for a break of structure (BOS) on the 15M chart to confirm bearish intent. After BOS, wait for a pullback into a 15M POI before entering a continuation short. FRGNT FX:AUDUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD: Anticipate ShortAUDUSD is surfacing near a resitance level at 0.6547 the pair have been respecting the support and resistance zone within this recent days. A partial breakout above this resistance zone will active a slight upward move, meanwhile in regard of this structure the pair is on a expected short.. Possible outline: A comfirmed reversal below 0.6539 will trigger downward move targeting 0.6347 as the next support. At this point we keep a close eye on this resistance zone to see if the long will continue or would respect the zone and short as expected. like and share your thoughts on this pair thanks
Short
by Blaisefxacademy
AUDUSD: Buy-the-Dip Above KumoWhy: Ichimoku: Price above Kumo, Tenkan > Kijun, future cloud turning up, Chikou above price & cloud → bullish stack. 27–28th printed a Break of Structure with a wide bullish impulse, then a Rally-Base-Rally. The prior ceiling ~0.6500–0.6510 is now support (classic pullback after breakout zone). After the impulse, we have small-bodied consolidation / bull flag near highs; no clear bearish reversal (no evening star / bearish engulfing at the top). Earlier range breaks failed inside the cloud; the last break closed above the range & Kumo and held on the retest → favors a true breakout. Key levels Support (buy-the-dip): 0.6510–0.6525 (Tenkan/Kijun cluster), 0.6500 (former ceiling), 0.6475 (Kumo top). Resistance/targets: 0.6555–0.6565 (recent swing high), 0.6590–0.6600, extension 0.6620. If H1–H4 closes below 0.6475, bullish case fails → risk a drop to 0.6450 → 0.6425 (cloud backfill / demand).
by POLARMARKET