AUDSUD BearishStrongly bearish albeit very slow today . We have news later but hopefully wouldnt affect outcome too much . My stop loss 20 pips
Trade ideas
Second Chance Setup – AUDUSD Bears Ready to Smash Supports
Last time, AUDUSD didn’t push lower as expected, instead making a false breakout / FVG sweep that trapped early sellers. But now, price action has given us a much stronger bearish confirmation.
On the 1H chart:
- A Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, signaling distribution.
- Price rejected from the FVG zone and failed to hold above the 200 EMA.
- The neckline has been retested , showing commitment from sellers.
This second chance setup looks more convincing than the first because momentum is clearly shifting toward the downside. My expectation is now for AUDUSD to extend lower toward 0.6456 , with further downside targets at 0.6422 and potentially deeper if sellers remain strong.
📉 Bias – Strong Bearish
📍 Key Resistance – FVG zone & neckline area
🎯 Target Levels – 0.6456 → 0.6422 → 0.6400
AUDUSD - Short opportunity this weekWe cannot put indicators as a reference in the publications (not even the free ones, don't know the reasons of this policy), but the play here would be the following.
First condition: We wait for a 1hr cross in the red on the macd;
Second: if condition #1 is confirmed, then we switch to the 5 minute timeframe and we wait for the macd to cross back in the green on this smaller timeframe. Once that happens, we put a pending sell at the low before the small pullback. The stop loss would be above the 1 hr correction (currently around 0.653).
Needless to say that if both conditions do not occur, there is no setup.
Stay tuned
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish reversalThe Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the buy entry, which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 0.6423, which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 0.6361, which acts as a swing low support that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 0.6481, which is an overlap resistance.
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AUD Update: Volatility, Flow & The Wide Range Game
🌡 Volatility & ER Levels (Today):
Expected Range (1σ) for AUD/USD futures:
Lower bound: 0.63945 ← Key support
🧩 Options Flow: Big Portfolio Restructuring
Big news in the options pit:
A major portfolio targeting a drop to 0.64–0.63 has been restructured.
What’s left?
Put @ 0.64 (still in play)
Call @ 0.66 (new upper ceiling)
This isn’t random — it’s a shift from directional bearishness to range-bound positioning.
🧠 What’s the Sentiment?
Looks like the market is pricing in a wide sideways channel — exactly where AUD has been stuck for the past 2 months.
No strong bullish signals from COT yet.
📅 Next Catalyst: COT Report (Tomorrow)
Fresh data on institutional and retail positioning drops tomorrow.
🔍 Bottom Line:
Support at 0.63945 holds key.
Options now suggest a 0.64–0.66 range.
Wait for COT to confirm next move.
#AUD
AUD/USD Forming Triangle Breakout | Demand Zone SupportAUD/USD (4H timeframe) is showing a strong technical setup after weeks of sideways movement. Price has recently formed multiple tops (0.6600–0.6650 resistance) and bottoms near the 0.6450 demand zone, highlighting a clear range structure.
Key observations:
The market developed a sideways trend before breaking into a triangle pattern, indicating consolidation before the next move.
Support levels are holding well around 0.6450–0.6470, aligning with the demand zone.
A clean break above 0.6520–0.6550 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving price back to the strong resistance area at 0.6600–0.6650.
If buyers fail to maintain control, a rejection from resistance may lead to another retest of 0.6400 (weak low zone).
This setup provides traders with both bullish breakout opportunities and downside risk scenarios, making it an important level to watch.
This post is for educational analysis only. Not financial advice. Always apply risk management and follow your trading plan
AUDUSD: Breaks Below ChannelThere's a very strong channel that formed on CMCMARKETS:AUDUSDU2025 originating since February 2025.
On the daily timeframe, price tested the lower channel boundary at the beginning of August. At that time, price respected this channel.
However, this wasn't the case more recently when price broke below this channel boundary and closed below it.
Moving over to the hourly timeframe, I'm monitoring the price action. I plotted an initial low that price traded post-breakout.
If price crosses below this initial low and makes a new lower low, that's an indication that momentum is picking up. If price reverts back, then it's a classic fakeout and then we'll hold off on this trade as price reverts back into the channel.
AUD_USD SUPPORT AHEAD|SHORT|
✅AUD_USD is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 0.6420
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 0.6440
SHORT🔥
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AUDUSD Long OpportunityWe broke the floor but are oversold on the oscillators, we are going to enter here and see if we can catch the ride up for the retest.
if we keep dropping we will space out entries and cost average our way to secondary TP. Keep positions lights, we may use up to 5 additional entries to navigate the pull back. We will look to exit when we get overbought on the oscillators (RSI, CCI etc etc)
AUDUSD - LongAUDUSD – BUY Setup
📊 H4 Analysis by Nii_Billions
🔹 Outlook: BULLISH
Using multiple timeframe confirmation for direction.
Strategy blends technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment.
Entry, SL, and TP structured with risk management in mind.
🟢 Educational purposes only 🟢
❤️ Like & comment if this helps your trading journey.
👉 Follow for more swing trade ideas.
AUDUSD - Seriously?Main Parameters
1. Monthly timeframe - Bullish
2. Weekly timeframe - Bullish
3. Daily timeframe - Bullish
4. Intraday timeframes - Bearish
Other Parameters
5. COT Data - AUD (Net Short with main parameters)
Intraday Reason for entry: 1W Structure, 1D Validation Level, 4hr Invalidation confluence.
Based on all these parameters, we are taking a Long position risking not more than 12 Pips, targeting a 1:15+.
CAUTION: This is not a financial advice, always trade with caution considering appropriate risk management.
AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25
📊 AUDUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:AUDUSD
Lingrid | AUDUSD Selling Opportunity From the Resistance Zone The price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . FX:AUDUSD has rejected the resistance zone and is now breaking lower support levels, confirming bearish continuation. Price action is unfolding within a downward channel, with a clear series of lower highs and lower lows forming. If sellers sustain momentum below the broken level, price is likely to extend toward deeper support near 0.6360. Broader context shows persistent bearish momentum, reinforced by structure and rejection at resistance.
📉 Key Levels:
Sell trigger: Breakdown below 0.6470 support with bearish confirmation.
Sell zone: Between 0.6470 – 0.6480 on failed retests.
Target: 0.6361 support level.
Invalidation: Break and close above 0.6500 resistance.
💡 Risks:
Failure to hold below the 0.6470 breakout may trigger a false breakdown.
Broader USD weakness from macroeconomic data could support a bullish rebound.
If risk sentiment shifts (e.g., equities rally), AUD could regain strength despite technical bearish structure.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Break or Fake?AUD/USD – Sell Area or Bounce?
Price stuck below the cloud, looks heavy.
Maybe small bounce to 0.6465 – 0.6480, but if sellers win, next stop could be 0.6390.
Target: 0.63900 ???
What do you think, traders? Will AUD/USD break down to 0.6390 or surprise us with a bounce up? Drop your comments
AUD/USD swing SELLS?4hr Supply Zone
Entry: 0.65297 & 0.65445 (premium entry)
SL: 0.65630
TP: 0.63733
Beware of POI's market out
Falling towards swing low support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a swing low support and could bounce to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.6420
1st Support: 0.6390
1st Resistance: 0.6486
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AUDUSD – Bearish Push Toward 0.6456 After FVG Rejection On the 1H chart, AUDUSD recently retraced into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) but failed to hold above, showing sellers stepping back in. The break below the 200 EMA combined with a clean trendline break adds more weight to the bearish sentiment.
With momentum shifting downward, my expectation is for price to drop toward the 1.618 Fib extension at 0.6456. If selling pressure remains strong, deeper targets at 0.6450 (Fib 2.0) and 0.6444 (Fib 2.272) could be in play.
📉 Bias – Bearish
📍 Key Resistance – FVG zone & 200 EMA
🎯 Target Levels – 0.6456 → 0.6450 → 0.6444
AUD/USD 4H | Momentum Screams Sell — Will Bears Take Over?AUD/USD is setting up for a clean short opportunity on the 4H chart, backed by both technical momentum and macro fundamentals. The pair continues to trade in a strong bearish trend, with USD gaining strength and AUD under heavy pressure from dovish RBA signals and risk-off sentiment. Our trade plan aligns with an AB=CD projection toward a lower PRZ, but we’re taking an instant sell setup to capture the bearish momentum early.
⚡ Technical Setup – Quick Summary
Pair: AUD/USD
Timeframe: 4H
Trend: Strongly Bearish across 1H, 2H, and 4H
Pattern: Potential AB=CD harmonic, PRZ projected much lower
Indicators: Alligator wide open + momentum bearish confirmations
Execution: Instant Sell (market execution)
Trade Details
Entry: Sell @ 0.64535 ( or Current Market Price)
SL: 0.65279
TP1: 0.63791
Lot Size: 0.13 (1% risk on $10k)
R/R Ratio: 1:1
📉 Confluence Drivers
🔹 Technical Confirmation
Alligator indicator confirms strong bearish momentum.
Multi-timeframe momentum is bearish.
USD index showing strength → adds bearish pressure on AUD/USD.
🔹 Macro Fundamentals
AUD Weakness: AUD is 2024–25’s weakest major currency, dragged by global risk-off mood & commodities slowdown.
USD Strength: Supported by strong Fed signals & macro resilience.
🎯 Trade Trigger Logic
Even though AB=CD PRZ is lower, the bearish momentum calls for immediate entry. Early positioning helps capture the move while risk is controlled with tight SL placement.
Do you also see AUD/USD sliding further, or do you expect a bounce before 0.64? Drop your thoughts 👇. Don’t forget to like, share, and follow for more trade setups!
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Bullish bounce off swing low support?AUD/USD is falling towards the support lev which is a swing low support and could bouce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6420
Why we like it:
There is a swing low support.
Stop loss: 0.6388
Why we like it:
There is a multi swing low support that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 0.6481
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
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AUDUSD Reversal Risk as Buying Power WeakensAUDUSD Reversal Risk as Buying Power Weakens
In recent days, AUDUSD has shown upward momentum, but buying pressure appears to be waning.
The pair has slipped from 0.6570 to 0.6480 without any clear fundamental catalyst, suggesting a potential loss of bullish steam.
Currently, price action seems to be in a corrective phase, and AUDUSD has approached a minor resistance zone near 0.6523.
This area may act as a ceiling, potentially driving the pair back toward the 0.6485 and 0.6455 level.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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AUD/USD Breaks Daily Supply Zone Despite Fundamental CautionThe U.S. dollar maintained its decline yesterday, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve official Kashkari, who joined other policymakers in hinting at a possible interest rate cut as soon as September. This shift in tone was mainly triggered by the softer-than-anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures released last Friday, signaling a more cautious outlook on the economy.
Meanwhile, the AUD/USD pair broke through our previous Daily Supply zone. However, from a fundamental perspective, nothing has significantly changed, as non-commercial traders increased their short positions last week. This suggests that there may be a second opportunity to target the next Daily Supply zone, as indicated by the chart.
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