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U.S. DOLLAR / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR REFERENCE RATE

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Lingrid | AUDUSD Relief Rally Then Downtrend ContinuationFX:AUDUSD perfectly played out my previous trading idea . Price is pulling back toward the mid-range zone after rejecting the descending trendline, confirming that sellers still control the broader structure. The market continues to form lower highs and lower lows inside the downward channel, with the recent compression breakdown reinforcing bearish momentum. If price retests 0.64750 and fails to break above it, continuation toward the 0.64150 support becomes the most likely scenario as the trend resumes. Broader context shows a consistent bearish flow, with corrective rallies repeatedly turning into continuation moves. ⚠️ Risks: A clean breakout above 0.64750 may invalidate the bearish setup and trigger a deeper correction. USD weakness or unexpected macro data could disrupt downside continuation. Failure to maintain momentum along the trendline may lead to sideways consolidation instead of a clean drop. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
4
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 | 📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:AUDUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast -Q4 | W47| D20 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D20 | Y25 | 📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:AUDUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
Stop!Loss|Market View: AUDUSD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️ In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for the AUDUSD currency pair☝️ Potential trade setup: 🔔Entry level: 0.64407 💰TP: 0.63705 ⛔️SL: 0.64755 "Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market. 👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts. 💬 Description: The Australian dollar continues to move lower, as sellers outlined a week ago. Selling remains a priority, and for today there are two scenarios (see chart). In both cases, the downside target is the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, with 0.63500 as a potential target. Thanks for your support 🚀 Profits for all ✅
Short
by StopLoss222
2
Dollar sinks as Hassett odds surge | FX ResearchThe dollar index is sliding to its weakest level since late October as markets increasingly price in Kevin Hasset, now seen with roughly 85 percent odds as the next Fed chair following President Trump’s public signaling, a development expected to weigh on the dollar, steepen the curve, and support risk assets. Aussie dollar is also pushing higher after RBA Governor Bullock struck a hawkish tone, warning that firming inflation pressures may require a policy response even as Australia’s softer than expected Q3 GDP headline masks stronger domestic demand and a sharp rebound in business investment. Swiss inflation surprised slightly to the downside, with core CPI at its lowest since 2021, though the data is unlikely to shift SNB policy expectations. Ahead today, US markets turn to the ADP employment report and ISM services for directional cues, while comments from ECB President Lagarde and the BOE’s Mann will round out the central bank narrative. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger 
by BlackBull Markets
AUDUSD SELL 4HAUD/USD 4H Chart – Technical Analysis The chart shows AUD/USD on the 4-hour timeframe, with several technical tools applied, including Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, trendlines, and projected trade setups. 1. Trend Overview The pair recently broke above a descending trendline, indicating a short-term shift toward bullish momentum. Price is currently trading above the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs, which strengthens the bullish sentiment in the near term. 2. Fibonacci Levels Several Fibonacci zones are marked: 0.786, 0.618, 0.5, and 0.382 retracements appear to act as major support/resistance. The market has bounced from the 0.618 retracement, confirming it as a strong support zone. 3. Bullish Scenario (Short-term) A green bullish projection is drawn: Price is expected to move higher toward the resistance zone around 0.665–0.668. A long trade is marked with: Risk/Reward Ratio ≈ 5.54 Target near previous resistance Stop-loss above the trendline break This suggests the trader anticipates a final bullish push before reversing. 4. Bearish Scenario (Medium-term) The chart shows two bearish trade projections in red/green shaded boxes: After reaching the top resistance zone, the chart suggests a major reversal. Projected price action includes: A drop to mid-range support Short-term consolidation Then a deeper decline into the 0.62–0.61 zone Targets shown: First bearish setup: Risk/Reward ≈ 3.98 Second deeper target: around 0.613–0.617 This indicates expectation of a larger downtrend after the temporary bullish move. 5. MACD Indicator The MACD histogram shows rising momentum, consistent with the current upward move. However, no bullish divergence is visible, meaning momentum might weaken soon. 6. Summary The chart presents a two-phase plan: Phase 1 – Bullish Push toward major resistance around 0.665–0.668. Momentum supports this scenario. Phase 2 – Bearish Reversal Strong rejection expected from resistance. Multiple bearish targets pointing down to 0.62 → 0.61. A long-term downtrend continuation is anticipated.
Short
by WallStreetVeteran
AUDUSD Wave Analysis – 3 December 2025 - AUDUSD broke daily Falling Wedge - Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6615 AUDUSD currency pair recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily Falling Wedge from the middle of September. The breakout of this Falling Wedge continues the active short-term correction ii, which stared earlier from the key multi-month support level 0.6420 (which has been reversing the price from May). Given the clear daily uptrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 0.6615 (target price for the completion of the active wave ii).
Long
by FxPro
AUDUSD H4 | Bullish BreakoutMomentum: Bullish Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud. Buy entry: 0.65740 - Pullback support Stop Loss: 0.65402 - Overlap support Take Profit: 0.66186 - Multi-swing high resistance - 127.2% Fib extension High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Long
by Tradu
AUD/USD Bulls Eye Key Resistance as December Range Takes ShapeThe AUD/USD rebound has now extended more than 2.2% off the lows and with confluent resistance now in view at 6592/98- a region defined by the 2025 high-week close and the 61.8% retracement of the decline off the yearly high. Note that the 2022 trendline converges on this threshold over the next few weeks, and a breach / weekly close above is needed to keep the bulls in control here. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2025 high-close at 6651 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6723. A break below the weekly lows would expose key support at the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range and the 52-week moving average at 6404/20. Losses below this threshold would put a potential head-and-shoulders pattern in play with subsequent support objectives eyed at the February high-week close (HWC) at 6356 and the 2025 low-week close (LWC) at 6290. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Bottom line: AUD/USD is approaching confluent resistance, and the advance may be vulnerable into the 2022 trendline- risk rises for topside exhaustion. Note that the December opening-range is just taking shape here- look for the breakout to offer guidance in the weeks ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 6598 IF price is heading lower with a break / close below 6453 needed to fuel the next leg in price. -MB
by FOREX.com
AUDUSD Has Potential to Strengthen Amidst Dollar WeakeningThe Australian Dollar/US Dollar (AUD/USD) pair started the week quietly, trading below the mid-0.6500s (near a two-week high). Despite disappointing Chinese economic data, the positive bias on AUD/USD remains strong. ✅ Weak Chinese Data and Its Impact Manufacturing PMI: Remained below 50.0 (contraction territory) for the eighth consecutive month in November. - Non-Manufacturing PMI: Dropped to 49.5, marking the first contraction in nearly three years (lowest since December 2022). - Market Reaction: Despite this poor data, the immediate market reaction was short-lived. Support came from: - Easing US-China trade tensions. Recently announced Chinese government measures to boost consumption. ✅ Support from the Australian Dollar (AUD) RBA Hawkishness: Diminishing odds for further policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) acted as a tailwind for the AUD. ✅ US Dollar (USD) Weakening - Dovish Fed Expectations: The USD Index (DXY) languished near a two-week low amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will lower borrowing costs again this month. - Risk-On Market Sentiment: Underlying bullish sentiment in financial markets weakened the safe-haven US Dollar, which benefited the riskier AUD/USD pair. ✅ Technical Analysis and Outlook - Bullish Signal: Friday's breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports the case for further near-term appreciation. - Cautionary Stance: Traders are reluctant to place aggressive bets and are opting to await the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI today and other key US macro data this week.
Long
by NouzTrader
1
Bull and Bear Thesis: Macro Tailwinds for AUD/USDSeveral macroeconomic factors and policy dynamics underpin this outlook, suggesting opportunities for traders looking to capitalise on shifts in rate differentials and global risk sentiment. Recent inflation data in Australia has surprised to the upside, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt a more hawkish stance than markets had anticipated just a few months ago. The conversation around imminent rate cuts has subsided, replaced by a growing consensus that rates will remain higher for longer. Beyond interest rates, the AUD remains closely tied to global risk sentiment and China's economic health. Even mild indications that China is stabilising or offering incremental stimulus provide meaningful support to the AUD. If global risk assets continue to embrace a soft-landing narrative, the AUD stands to benefit from both favourable rate differentials and increased risk-on capital flows. Bull Thesis Entry Zone: 0.6548 – 0.6556 Stop Loss: 0.65176 Take Profits: TP1: 0.6578 TP2: 0.6602 TP3: 0.6638 Reasoning: Fed easing expectations alongside RBA hawkish bias and risk-on maintains a strong fundamental tailwind for AUD strength Bear Thesis Entry Zone: 0.6562 – 0.6568 (Range) Stop Loss: 0.6586 Take Profits: TP1: 0.6538 TP2: 0.6510 TP3: 0.6480 Reasoning: A strong U.S. ISM or NFP print could temporarily revive the USD, giving this trade its best probability. Would be in play for price rejection 0.6565–0.6570 with substantial selling volume. This publication is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Novaque & Co or its affiliates. Novaque & Co, its employees, contributors, or related parties accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information presented. Readers are strongly advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author and/or affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets discussed. Content is subject to change or update without notice.
Long
by Novaque_Research
AUDUSD December 2025 fundamental analysisAUD/USD in December 2025 is likely to trade with a modest upside bias versus current levels, but within a choppy, data‑dependent range rather than a clear trend move. From a pure macro/fair‑value perspective, the pair screens closer to “slightly undervalued but not a screaming bargain,” so any view should be sized cautiously.​ Macro and interest‑rate backdrop Australian growth is expected to be soft but improving in 2025-26, with major institutions like the OECD projecting GDP growth around the high‑1% area and inflation near the RBA’s target band, creating room for only gradual policy easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates earlier in 2025 but is now seen holding the cash rate around 3.6% into year‑end as inflation remains above target and recent data (including hotter inflation) has reduced expectations of further near‑term cuts.​ In the United States, forecasts point to a cooling economy with slower growth through late 2025 and disinflation that justifies measured Fed easing, implying the Fed is unlikely to be materially more hawkish than the RBA by December. Several USD outlooks flag short‑term softness with scope for only a modest rebound by Q4, suggesting that the earlier strong‑dollar phase may be fading rather than accelerating into the end of 2025.​ AUD‑specific drivers Fundamentally, AUD remains tied to relative interest‑rate expectations, global risk sentiment and commodity demand, especially from China. Recent analysis highlights that the rate differential versus the US has narrowed, but with the RBA likely on hold and the Fed easing, that spread should be less negative by late 2025 than it was at the cycle peak, which is mildly supportive for AUD.​ External forecasts generally see Australia avoiding recession, with sub‑2% but positive growth underpinned by immigration and a stabilising labour market, which limits downside tail risk for the currency unless there is a sharper China or global trade shock. Global forecasts, however, stress that higher tariffs and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on trade and investment, so AUD’s traditional “high beta” role to global growth keeps it vulnerable to risk‑off episodes.​ Market consensus on AUD/USD levels Third‑party forecast compilations and bank projections cluster around AUD/USD levels in the mid‑0.60s to around 0.70 into late 2025, implying modest appreciation from recent mid‑0.65 area trading. Recent late‑2025 commentary notes that AUD has been firming as local inflation surprises on the upside, diminishing the odds of further RBA easing, while the market prices in ongoing or upcoming Fed cuts that weigh on the USD, a configuration that typically favours incremental AUD/USD upside. Short‑term technical and sentiment pieces as of November 2025 describe AUD/USD near recent highs with improving momentum, but also emphasise data dependence around US labour/inflation releases and Australian CPI and employment figures.​ Key risks to watch Downside risks for AUD/USD into December include a sharper‑than‑expected global slowdown, renewed escalation in tariffs, or a negative surprise from China that pressures commodity prices and Australian export income. On the policy side, a more hawkish‑than‑expected Fed or a renewed US‑dollar safe‑haven bid (for example from financial stress or geopolitical shocks) would also cap or reverse AUD gains.​ Upside risks include evidence of resilient global growth, some easing of trade tensions, and further signs that Australian inflation is sticky enough to keep the RBA on hold while the Fed continues to ease, which would improve AUD’s yield appeal. Any stabilisation or improvement in China’s growth outlook would also be supportive via commodities and risk sentiment channels.​ Trading verdict for December 2025 Given the current macro setup, the interest‑rate path and the consensus forecasts, AUD/USD in December 2025 looks mildly skewed to the upside but with notable event and volatility risk. On a fundamental basis, this points more toward a cautious “buy on dips” stance rather than an outright bearish view, assuming risk management is tight and position size reflects the risk of renewed USD strength or global growth shocks.​
Long
by Oneirotrade