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AUSSIE H4 | Heading Into 61.8% Fibonacci ResistanceMomentum: Bearish The price is rising towards the sell entry which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and al;so trading below the ichimoku cloud. Sell entry: 0.6451 Pullback resistance 61.8% FIbonacci retracement Stop loss: 0.6516 Overlap resistance Slighlty above the 50% Fibonacci retracement Take profit: 0.6389 Swing low support 161.8% FIbonacci extension High Risk Investment Warning Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
Short
by Tradu
AUDUSD FRGNT FUN COUPON FRIDAY Forecast - Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D21 | Y25 | 📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:AUDUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
The Global Shadow System1. Foundations of the Global Shadow System The shadow system emerged alongside globalization. As the movement of capital accelerated in the 20th century, governments liberalized financial markets and reduced restrictions on cross-border flows. While these steps facilitated investment and economic growth, they also opened channels for unmonitored capital movement. The system rests on four foundations: 1.1 Secrecy Secrecy is the lifeblood of the shadow world. Whether in offshore financial centres or covert diplomatic channels, secrecy shields actors from accountability. Jurisdictions like the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Panama, and Luxembourg built industries around confidential structures, shell companies, and trusts. 1.2 Regulatory Fragmentation Different countries have different laws. Global actors exploit these inconsistencies, creating a patchwork of loopholes and arbitrage opportunities. A company may be headquartered in one country, registered in another, banked in a third, and operational in dozens of others—all to avoid taxes, scrutiny, or liability. 1.3 Financial Innovation Derivatives, complex securities, and digital assets—while beneficial in many ways—also enable obfuscation. Financial technology often evolves faster than regulation, creating zones where oversight lags behind activity. 1.4 Geopolitical Competition Nations sometimes encourage secret channels to advance their interests. Intelligence services run covert operations; states use secret funding networks; governments enable their corporations to operate with minimal oversight abroad. 2. The Financial Shadow World The financial sector contains some of the most sophisticated components of the global shadow system. The most prominent elements include: 2.1 Offshore Tax Havens These jurisdictions specialize in: Low or zero taxation Strict banking secrecy Minimal reporting requirements Offshore havens attract corporations, private wealth, and even government officials wanting to move funds discreetly. Research suggests that trillions of dollars of global wealth are parked offshore, depriving nations of tax revenue and hiding ownership structures. 2.2 Shell Companies and Trusts A shell company exists mainly on paper but can hold assets, open bank accounts, and move funds. Trusts further obscure the true owner by separating legal ownership from beneficiaries. These instruments are commonly used in: money laundering tax avoidance political corruption global mergers and acquisitions 2.3 Shadow Banking Shadow banking refers to financial intermediaries that perform bank-like functions but are not regulated like banks. This includes hedge funds, private equity, money market funds, and structured investment vehicles. The 2008 financial crisis exposed how massively interconnected shadow banking is with the formal economy. 2.4 Illicit Financial Flows Illicit flows encompass illegal money from corruption, trafficking, sanctions evasion, and organized crime. The global shadow system provides channels for these funds to move across borders and integrate into the legal economy. 3. Political and Geopolitical Components Beyond finance, the global shadow system includes political and geopolitical networks that operate invisibly or unofficially. 3.1 Backdoor Diplomacy Nations often communicate secretly through back channels: intelligence services private envoys intermediaries in third countries These channels allow negotiations, coup planning, and geopolitical coordination away from public view. 3.2 Corporate Influence and Lobby Networks Multinational corporations exert massive influence on global rules. Lobby groups, think tanks, political donations, and policy consultants form a shadow ecosystem that shapes trade agreements, tax policies, and regulations without direct public accountability. 3.3 Intelligence Alliances Agreements like the Five Eyes network operate partly in secrecy, sharing surveillance, cyber intelligence, and counterterrorism data. Such networks influence global security policies without democratic transparency. 3.4 Private Military and Security Companies Firms like Wagner (Russia), Blackwater/Academi (US), and other PMCs operate in conflict zones, often without public oversight. They influence wars, resource extraction, and political transitions, forming a covert layer of global warfare. 4. Shadow Economies and Illicit Trade The shadow economy includes activities that are legal in some contexts but hidden from regulators, as well as outright illegal sectors. 4.1 Black Markets These markets deal in: narcotics arms counterfeit products human trafficking wildlife trade The shadow system provides the logistics, banking, and distribution channels needed to sustain these markets. 4.2 Crypto and Digital Shadows Cryptocurrencies and digital assets have added new layers: privacy coins like Monero decentralized finance (DeFi) darknet markets ransomware payments Though blockchain is transparent, anonymity tools create shadowed zones of activity. 4.3 Informal Economies Millions of workers globally operate in informal sectors without legal protections. While not criminal, these activities form part of the grey economy that escapes tax and regulatory systems. 5. How the Shadow System Shapes Global Outcomes The global shadow system influences the world in several powerful ways: 5.1 Rising Inequality The wealthy use offshore structures to minimize taxes, while ordinary citizens face stricter rules. This widens the gap between elites and the public. 5.2 Policy Distortion Governments may appear powerless against corporate tax avoidance or illicit flows, but often they are influenced by the same networks that benefit from secrecy. 5.3 Financial Crises Unregulated financial products and shadow banking were major contributors to the 2008 crisis and remain potential future risks. 5.4 Undermined Democracy Opaque funding, influence networks, and secret diplomacy reduce the transparency that democracies require to function. 5.5 Geopolitical Manipulation Nations use covert financial and intelligence networks to influence elections, destabilize rivals, and secure strategic resources. 6. Efforts to Regulate the Shadow System International bodies and governments have attempted reforms: OECD’s BEPS framework targets corporate tax avoidance. FATF regulations target money laundering and terror financing. Automatic exchange of financial information reduces secrecy in banking. Pandora and Panama Papers revelations pressured certain offshore centres. Despite these efforts, the shadow system persists due to powerful incentives, political protection, and the complexity of global finance. Conclusion The global shadow system is an invisible but deeply influential structure shaping our world. It is built on secrecy, financial engineering, regulatory loopholes, and geopolitical backchannels. It affects economies, politics, crime, diplomacy, and global development. Understanding its mechanisms helps explain why inequality persists, why financial crises erupt, and why global governance remains fragmented. The shadow world is not merely a hidden side of globalization—it is its backbone.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
AUD/USD Just Confirmed the Fade — Here’s Why I’m SellingI’ve been watching this pair quietly range under key resistance for weeks, but now it’s finally showing its hand. AUD/USD just gave a clean rejection from a stacked confluence zone — weekly trendline, lower high, and both 21 & 200 EMAs capping price. Smart money tapped the zone, failed to break above, and now we’re seeing momentum shift downward. That tells me one thing: continuation is likely. My bias is bearish, with confirmation across the Weekly, Daily, and 4H. Price rejected off a weekly support/resistance flip (0.6499), failed to close above 0.6518, and respected the trendline beautifully. The 4H gave us a minor rally that tapped into structure before dumping — classic mitigation move. As long as we stay below 0.6518, I’m holding a short bias with targets down toward the next clean liquidity pocket near 0.6455 and potentially deeper at 0.6420. 🔻Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 0.6499–0.6504 Stop Loss: 0.6518 Take Profit 1: 0.6455 Take Profit 2: 0.6420 This is a clean setup that fits my criteria as a swing trader. I’m shorting with structure, not emotion — and I’ll let the chart tell me when it’s done. Until then, I’m just flowing with the momentum. 🖤 Let’s trade smart.
Short
by SheenaL
AUD/USD Bearish Retracement SetupThe 15-minute AUD/USD chart shows price tapping into the session high (SH) formed across the London and New York sessions. This level sits inside a broader bearish premium zone, signalling exhaustion for buyers. With the general market direction still bearish, this reaction at the SH is expected to produce a retracement back toward the TP area. The rejection wick and slowdown in momentum strengthen the case for a corrective move lower. Overall, the confluence of SH and bearish structure supports a short-term drop toward TP before any further reassessment of trend continuation.
Short
by sheerazforex
AUD/USD – Bearish Breakout Signal Triggered AUD/USD – Bearish Breakout Signal Triggered (79% Backtest Probability) A fresh SELL signal has been generated on AUD/USD, driven by a confirmed Breakout pattern on the current timeframe. This setup aligns strongly with our automated trend-following model and carries a 79% historical backtest probability, indicating a high-quality bearish continuation opportunity. 🔍 Technical Breakdown The price structure on AUD/USD is currently reflecting: 1. Bearish Breakout Structure The pair recently pushed through a minor intraday structure, forming a lower high — a classic precursor to bearish continuation. The breakout reflects rejection of upper liquidity, signaling sellers stepping in with control. 2. Trend Alignment Our trend-following model confirms that: The pair is trading below key dynamic levels. Momentum indicators show downside pressure building. The breakout pattern is clean and free from noise, improving its reliability. This confluence increases the confidence that the downside move may continue. 🌍 Market Context & Macro Influence Dollar strength continues to weigh heavily on AUD/USD, as: Risk sentiment remains fragile Interest rate differentials favor USD Recent macro data prints support a stronger dollar outlook AUD continues to show weakness due to commodity softness and cautious global sentiment In short, the macro backdrop supports the bearish technical structure currently forming on the chart. 📌 Key Technical Levels to Watch Immediate Resistance: 0.65297 Sellers are expected to defend this zone aggressively. Immediate Support: 0.64907 A clean break below this region may accelerate bearish momentum. Major Resistance: 0.65753 A strong structural ceiling — bullish invalidation sits above this level. Major Support: 0.64451 The next major liquidity target for sellers if the present breakout expands. 🎯 Trade Parameters (Based on 0.10 Lot Size) Parameter Level Entry 0.65102 Stop Loss (SL) 0.65302 Take Profit (TP) 0.64702 Risk $50 Potential Profit $100 R:R Ratio 1 : 2 This structure offers a clean, mechanical setup with well-defined risk boundaries. 🛡 Risk Management Notes Professional-grade risk practices include: Never risk more than 1–2% of total capital per trade Consider scaling into the position if price retests the breakout zone Use a trailing stop after price moves in your favor Avoid holding during high-impact USD or AUD economic events Ensure proper position sizing based on your account balance If volatility expands, consider partial profit-taking Breakout trades can accelerate quickly — staying disciplined is essential. 📌 Final Thoughts AUD/USD currently presents a high-probability bearish continuation setup, supported by both technical structure and macro context. With backtested performance at 79%, clear levels, and defined risk, this opportunity fits well within professional trend-following models. Traders should monitor price behavior near support at 0.64907 — a breakdown from this region may trigger the next wave of selling pressure toward 0.64702 and beyond.
Short
by SivaArjun
AUDUSD: Watching 0.6470 as Fed Cut Bets GrowHey Traders, In today’s session we’re monitoring AUDUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 0.64700 zone. The pair remains in a clear uptrend, and price is currently pulling back toward a major trend support / S&R confluence at 0.64700 — a level where bulls have previously stepped in with conviction. On the macro side, I continue to think that the incoming data will ultimately force the FED into a December cut, despite the market still being mixed on the odds. If that scenario plays out, it would set the stage for broad USD weakness, which aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation on AUDUSD. A reaction from the 0.64700 area could offer a solid continuation setup if the trend structure holds. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
23
AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast - Q4 | W47| D18 | Y25 |📅 Q4 | W47| D18 | Y25 | 📊 AUDUSD FRGNT Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:AUDUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
Warning: AUD/USD Sinking – Any Reversal Ahead?Hello everyone, today we’ll analyze the AUD/USD pair in the context of its clear downtrend. In terms of news, the USD is strengthening due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high, putting pressure on the AUD. Additionally, the lack of supportive data from Australia recently has made investors concerned about the economic outlook of the country. From a technical perspective, the chart shows that AUD/USD is in a downtrend as the price breaks through a descending triangle pattern . The resistance at 0.65200 has been rejected several times, and the buying pressure is weakening. This indicates that the downtrend could continue, especially as the price has tested and failed to break through this resistance level. The next key support levels are 0.64700 and 0.64200. If the price breaks these support levels, the downtrend will likely accelerate. Given the current context, AUD/USD may continue to fall in the short term, unless there’s an unexpected shift in policy from the Fed or Australia . In conclusion, the downtrend of AUD/USD is clear and significant . The support levels at 0.64700 and 0.64200 are important levels to watch for trading.
Short
by Paradise_Noir
6
Falling towards key support?AUD/USD is pulling back toward the pivot level, which serves as a multi–swing-low support zone. From this area, the pair may find buying interest and potentially rebound toward the 1st resistance level. Pivot: 0.6468 1st Support: 0.6444 1st Resitance: 0.6498 Disclaimer: The opinions given above constitute general market commentary and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended to be informative only, and are not advice, a recommendation, research, a record of our trading prices, an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past performance or forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast, or any information supplied by any third party.
Long
by IC Markets
AUDUSD bearish trend continuation below 0.6560The AUDUSD pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows an oversold rally towards the resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 0.6560, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 0.6560 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 0.6480, followed by 0.6460 and 0.6440 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 0.6560 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 0.6580, then 0.6600. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 0.6560. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by Trade Nation
Lingrid | AUDUSD Weekly High False Breakout - Sell SetupFX:AUDUSD is rejecting the resistance block after forming a clear lower high right beneath the descending red trendline. Price is now slipping back under the minor breakout zone, showing fading bullish momentum inside the shaded range. As long as price stays below 0.6550, sellers remain in control with a clean path toward the 0.6500 liquidity zone. A break and retest of that zone may open further downside into the deeper support area. ⚠️ Risks: A strong reclaim above 0.6550 would invalidate the bearish structure. Sudden USD weakness could trigger a corrective bounce. Failure to hold below the blue trendline may cause a short-term squeeze before continuation lower. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
9