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USDCAD trade ideas

【Canadian Dollar Analysis】 USD/CAD is currently oscillating wi【Canadian Dollar Analysis】 USD/CAD is currently oscillating within the 1.3450–1.3600 range, reflecting mixed fundamental drivers. **Supporting factors for CAD**: Rising crude oil prices (WTI back above $80) bolster its commodity currency appeal, while Canada’s stronger-than-expected January CPI may delay BoC rate cuts. **Headwinds**: Robust US economic data continues to strengthen the USD, coupled with sluggish domestic growth (Q4 GDP at just 1%). Technically, a break above 1.3620 is needed to confirm further upside, with key support at 1.3400. Monitor oil price dynamics and comparative economic data between the US and Canada. Trading strategy: range trading with breakout follow-up.
by trade1638
USD/CAD – Breakout Opportunity AheadThe market is painting a clear picture: Canada’s labor data is weakening (unemployment jumping to 7.1%), while the USD still holds an advantage thanks to investor safe-haven demand. This tilts the balance strongly in favor of buyers on USD/CAD – and if timed right, this could be a golden trading setup. On the 4H chart, price has tested the 1.3780 support multiple times without breaking it, proving this level to be a solid “launchpad.” At the same time, EMA34 and EMA89 are converging around 1.3800, adding strength to the bullish outlook. If price breaks above 1.3870, get ready – the door towards 1.3920–1.3950 will open wide. Strategy: Buy on dip around 1.3780–1.3800, with SL just below 1.3750. First TP at 1.3870, extended TP at 1.3920+. This is a setup backed by both fundamentals and technicals, giving bulls the upper hand.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
Trade todayEntry USDCAD A plus 08/09/2025 - 9am NY Head and shoulders H4 3pin Fibs 78.6 FVG at 9am BOS above taken The USDCAD moved lower alongside broader U.S. dollar weakness today, but buyers stepped in at a familiar support zone. The pair tested the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 1.37844 (green line) before bouncing higher. Recall that on Friday, following the U.S. jobs report, price slipped below this same 200-bar average but found willing buyers near the 100-day moving average at 1.37626 (lower blue line on the chart above).
by EZIO-FX
Canadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data ReleaseCanadian Dollar Falls After Labour Market Data Release On Friday, disappointing figures showed that in August the Canadian economy lost 65,500 jobs (the forecast had been for an increase of 10,000), while the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%. This is the highest level of unemployment since May 2016, excluding the pandemic period. It is believed that: → the deterioration in the labour market (primarily in manufacturing) is a consequence of the trade war with the United States; → the fall in employment in Canada has increased the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will resume its monetary easing campaign. As a result, the CAD weakened sharply against other currencies. However, the depreciation against the US dollar was less pronounced, as the USD itself is under pressure from various factors. Technical Analysis of USD/CAD From a long-term perspective, the USD/CAD pair remains within a downward trend, highlighted by a red descending channel. From a medium-term perspective, since July the rate has risen from the 1.3550–1.3600 support zone, forming an ascending channel (shown in blue). Price action (indicated by arrows) shows that: → sellers are aggressive, pushing the price down from the upper boundary of the red channel; → buyers are aggressive, driving the price up from the lower boundary of the blue channel. Its median line acts as resistance. This is compressing USD/CAD fluctuations into a pattern resembling a symmetrical narrowing triangle (shown in black), with recent overbought (1) and oversold (2) conditions on the RSI marking price reversals back into the triangle from its boundaries. Thus, we could assume that supply and demand forces will keep USD/CAD in a state of temporary balance while awaiting key news next week: → 16 September – Canada CPI report; → 17 September – interest rate decisions from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/CAD - Clean price actions with LTF consolidation📈 USD/CAD – Coiling for the Next Expansion 🕰 Weekly View Price remains in a long-term bullish trend, holding above strong support. Weekly structure shows resistance overhead at 1.50–1.52, but liquidity is building toward that level. Current zone is mid-range, rejecting weekly supply. 📊 Daily Structure Recent CHOCH + BOS confirm buyers stepping back in after tapping weekly demand. Price consolidating near 1.38, building energy. Daily IMB target sits at 1.41, aligning with upside liquidity. Below, two strong buy zones line up with fib 0.618–0.71 retracement: Buy Zone 1 (preferred): 1.37–1.3720 Buy Zone 2: 1.3650–1.3680 (extreme demand). ⏱ 8H Breakdown Structure forming a potential head & shoulders consolidation, but neckline is unbroken. If price dips into buy zones, expecting sharp reversal higher. Liquidity below sitting at 1.37–1.3680, prime trap for late sellers. Upside target: 1.41–1.4150 IMB. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry: Wait for sweep into 1.37 demand (preferred). Stop: 1.3645 (below extreme demand). Target: 1.4100–1.4150 (daily IMB). RR: 1:4+ depending on entry. ⚡ Bias Bullish – waiting for a corrective dip into demand before continuation to 1.41+. Invalidation: sustained close below 1.3640.
by jamesibartram
USD/CAD – Sideways Accumulation, Preparing for a Mild UpsideThe August Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at only 22K, far below expectations of 75K and the previous 79K, causing the USD to weaken. However, Canadian labor data was also underwhelming, leaving the CAD too weak to drag the pair significantly lower. As a result, USD/CAD has maintained balance and is moving within a narrow range. On the H4 chart, the price is fluctuating around 1.38280, closely tracking the long-term descending trendline. The EMA34 and EMA89 are moving sideways, reflecting an accumulation phase. If support at 1.3787 holds, USD/CAD could rebound and push up towards 1.3833 before confirming the next trend direction.
by Rocky_trade_
usd/cad shows uptrendOverall, within the higher time frames, USDCAD is still at its lowest and has shown considerable potential. Currently, it has shown an uptrend, and it has been respecting the support lines within the hourly time frames. As of now, on the 1-hour time frame, it has become bearish. In my opinion, I would wait to see if it touches my yellow support line, or perhaps it could touch my blue support line; otherwise, we should wait until we see a bullish candle after this bearish engulfing candle.
Long
by jovanniespinosa1
USDCAD 4HTrading Outlook for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we review trading perspectives and short-term outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to—or breakout from—this zone will determine the next price movement toward the specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight key levels ahead of the price and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
Sell USD/CAD now at cluster resistance.CAD was one of the top performing majors last week and I expect it to continue. It's the start of a new month and the top wick of the new monthly candle before the downtrend continues. There is Non Farm Payrolls on Friday at the end of the week, so price action before the news event will influence this trades outcome. Sell now : 1.3814 cluster resistance Stop : 1.3893 above major resistance Profit : 1.3656 before 78.6 Fib and rising trendline Risk 1 : 2
Short
by ForexExpats1
USDCAD – Supply, Demand & Channel Breakdown AnalysisUSDCAD – Supply, Demand & Channel Breakdown Analysis USDCAD on the H1 timeframe has been moving within an ascending channel, but price recently broke below the channel, showing bearish pressure. 🔴 Supply Zone (1.3827 – 1.3840): Price tested this zone and failed to push higher. Sellers are in control from this area. 🔵 Demand Zone (1.3720): This is the next strong level where buyers previously stepped in. Acts as a logical take profit target for shorts. 🔑 Summary: The market rejected the supply zone and broke the channel to the downside. As long as price stays below 1.3830, bearish continuation towards 1.3720 remains valid.
Short
by WINEGOTRADES
USDCADChart Patterns **Ascending Trendline Support: Price bounced from a rising trendline, acting as dynamic support. **Previous Horizontal Support Zone: Also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.5 level from the recent move. **Potential Double Bottom at support area (watch for confirmation with bullish momentum). Indicators RSI (Relative Strength Index): **Currently near the oversold region (~30), suggesting a potential bullish reversal. **Possible bullish divergence (price making higher lows while RSI makes lower lows – needs confirmation). Fibonacci Retracement **Fib levels from recent low to high are drawn. **Price bounced near the 50% retracement, a common reversal level.
Long
by AsifAwan11
USD/CAD – Bulls Eyeing a Bounce from Key Demand ZoneAfter an aggressive correction from the 1.3920 highs, USD/CAD has now landed on a heavy demand zone near 1.3720 – 1.3740. This area has proven to be a launchpad for rallies in recent weeks, and price is once again testing buyers’ conviction. With both technical structure and macro fundamentals in play, this zone could determine the next major swing. Current Bias Bullish bias as long as 1.3720 holds, with upside potential toward 1.3818 and 1.3920 supply. Key Fundamental Drivers USD: Supported by sticky inflation (Core PCE 2.9% y/y) and resilient consumer spending (+0.5% m/m). Fed rate cut expectations have softened, keeping the dollar supported. CAD: Weighed down by weaker Canadian GDP (Q2 annualized -1.6%, q/q -0.4%) and slowing momentum in domestic growth. Oil remains weak near $64, offering little support to the loonie. Macro Context Rates: The Fed remains cautious with cuts, while the BoC faces pressure from economic contraction. Interest rate divergence favors the USD. Growth Trends: US growth remains firmer compared to Canada’s slowdown. Commodities: Oil’s weakness is a drag on CAD, making the currency vulnerable. Geopolitics: Ongoing tariff disputes and Middle East energy risks keep USD demand steady as a safe haven, further weighing on CAD. Primary Risk to the Trend A deeper selloff in USD on unexpected Fed dovishness or a sharp rebound in oil prices (driven by geopolitical shocks or supply cuts) could strengthen CAD and invalidate the bullish setup. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event US ISM PMI & NFP (this week): Key drivers for Fed policy path. Canada Jobs Report (Friday): Critical for CAD sentiment after the weak GDP print. Leader/Lagger Dynamics USD/CAD tends to lag oil and broader USD moves. It often follows the dollar’s momentum, while oil price shocks can lead moves on CAD. Currently, the pair is USD-led, making it more reactive to Fed data than Canadian domestic flows. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.3720 – 1.3740 (demand zone), 1.3660. Resistance Levels: 1.3818 (mid-resistance), 1.3918 – 1.3925 (major supply). Stop Loss (SL): 1.3650 (below demand zone invalidation). Take Profit (TP): 1.3818 (first target), 1.3920 (extended target). Summary: Bias and Watchpoints USD/CAD is sitting at a key demand zone around 1.3720 – 1.3740, where buyers need to defend the trend. The bias remains bullish above this level, with upside targets at 1.3818 and 1.3920. A break below 1.3650 would invalidate the long setup and expose further downside. With US data in focus and CAD weighed down by weak GDP and soft oil prices, the pair is more likely to follow USD momentum in the near term. Traders should watch NFP and Canada’s jobs data closely, as these will dictate whether this bounce carries to new highs or fades into deeper consolidation.
Long
by ultreosforex
8
USDCAD H1 | Potential bearish dropThe Loonie (USD/CAD) has reacted off the sell entry and could drop from this level to the take profit. Sell entry is at 1.3808, which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 1.3842, which is a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 1.3770, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Bearish drop off?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has rejected off the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 1.3823 1st Support: 1.3770 1st Resistance: 1.3858 Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
Potential bearish drop?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level ot our take profit. Entry: 1.3828 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Stop loss: 1.3857 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3771 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
USD/CAD - Bullish Pennant (04.09.2025)The USD/CAD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bullish Pennant Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3835 2nd Resistance – 1.3853 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
50