USDCAD trade ideas
USD/CAD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
USD/CAD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.382
Target Level: 1.369
Stop Loss: 1.391
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USD/CAD steadies as traders weigh US jobs buildup and Canadian tMarket overview
USD/CAD is holding around 1.3810 on Thursday after a choppy week of data-driven swings. The dollar is consolidating following softer ISM manufacturing readings that highlighted weakness in US factory activity, while the services sector and labor market will take center stage heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Traders remain cautious ahead of ADP employment and ISM services today, which are expected to refine expectations for a September Fed rate cut.
The Canadian dollar is struggling to capitalize on firmer oil prices after OPEC’s signaling of potential output hikes weighed on the commodity earlier in the week. Domestic fundamentals remain mixed: Q2 productivity contracted at -1.0% q/q, underscoring competitiveness challenges, while today’s trade balance will be scrutinized for signs of improvement after July’s -5.86B deficit. Market positioning suggests CAD resilience depends on strong labor and trade readings later in the week, otherwise leaving USD/CAD range-bound near current levels.
Technical analysis
Current technical conditions and main scenario
The 4-hour chart shows USD/CAD bouncing off 1.3780 support and testing resistance at 1.3810. Price action has broken above a short-term descending trendline, signaling that momentum may be shifting. A sustained move above 1.3810–1.3820 would confirm a bullish breakout, targeting 1.3832 (200% Fibonacci extension) and potentially opening the door toward 1.3860 if follow-through builds.
Alternative scenario
If the pair fails to sustain above 1.3810 and dips back under 1.3798, a retracement toward 1.3780 support is possible. A decisive break beneath 1.3780 would undermine the bullish case and re-expose 1.3750 as the next downside target.
USDCAD Long (70% probability)Looking at the technical analysis in chart, USDCAD tested last demand zone.
I expect a push to the next supply level, and executed two long order on it.
First order is a swing trade, executed from the current price with a wide stop. The other, is a buy limit, with tight stop targeting next supply zone, as indicated on chart.
Potentially bullish rise?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has bounced off the pivot and would rise to the 1st resistance that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 1.3779
1st Support: 1.3731
1st Resistance: 1.3858
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Bulllish bounce off pullback support?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level, which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3770
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.3728
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit: 1.3855
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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USD/CAD – Pullback WatchReport from the War Room:
USD/CAD is pulling back into a marked support/resistance zone. The battlefield is clear, but the confirmation is not yet in place.
Structure: Price is pressing into the SR zone.
Momentum: Currently high, but needs alignment.
Volume: Still waiting for conviction.
Signal: Watching for a completed pullback with a strong engulfing candle to mark the entry.
⚔️ War Room Lesson:
A pullback is only complete when all three soldiers — Volume, Momentum, and Structure — stand together. Until then, we wait.
👉 Discipline wins more battles than impatience ever will.
USDCAD H4 | Bullish bounce offUSD/CAD has bounced off the buy entry which has been identified as a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Buy entry is at 1.3770, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.3729, which is a multi-swing low support.
Take profit is at 1.3855, which is an overlap resistance that laigns withthe 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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USDCAD: Bearish. Buy The Dip?Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Sept 1 - 5th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: USDCAD
Points of Interest:
- There are RELs (relative equal lows) at 1.3721 as a draw on liquidity
- Just underneath that, is a +FVG between 1.3716 and 1.3688.
I am looking for the reaction below those liquidity lows and the contact with the +FVG. If price presents a bullish CISD (market shift) only then will I entertain longs.
Shorts are best for now, as the HTFs are bearish.
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All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Sell USD/CAD before cluster resistance.CAD was one of the top performing majors last week and I expect it to continue. It's the start of a new month and the top wick of the new monthly candle, hopefully, will reach my sell limit entry. There is Non Farm Payrolls on Friday at the end of the week, so price action before the news event will influence this trades outcome.
Sell : 1.3814 cluster resistance
Stop : 1.3893 above major resistance
Profit : 1.3656 before 78.6 Fib and rising trendline
Risk 1 : 2
Bearish reversal off major resistance?The Loonie (USD/CAD) has rejected off the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance, and could potentially drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3915
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.3857
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3730
Why we like it:
There is a multi-swing low support.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDCAD: Pullback From SupportThere is a strong likelihood that the 📈USDCAD will experience a pullback from the support level.
This expectation is reinforced by the formation of a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour time frame, along with a breakout above the neckline of that pattern.
If this bullish momentum continues, the target for the upward movement is set at 1.3833.
#020: USD/CAD Long Investment Opportunity
After consolidating at 1.3740, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of a potential bullish recovery. The technical structure highlights a solid support base that could sustain a renewed upward momentum.
Trading Rationale
Key Support: The 1.3737 area has rejected declines, confirming its defensive nature.
Resistance to Monitor: 1.3800/1.3806 represents the immediate target, coinciding with the upper end of the range.
Scenario: If current support is maintained, the price could push towards the TP if volume increases and bullish confirmation is obtained in the next few candles.
Risk Management
The narrow SL at 1.3726 offers an attractive risk/reward ratio, with protection in the event of a false bearish breakout.