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USDEUR trade ideas

USD short idea: Fundamental analysis.USD weakness has been a theme to start the week, as the post FOMC strength slowly deflates. I've chosen the EUR to long given recent EUR bounancy and today's inflation data from Germany keeping any future rates cuts in the distance. The AUD remains a good long option, a 'neutral hold' hasn't dented sentiment and I still like AUD NZD long as a possible trade. It's even difficult to argue against a USD JPY short trade as fresh talk of an imminent BOJ rate hike hits the wires. Today's trade is a 20 pip stop loss with 25 pip profit target. The risk to the trade is USD strength or 'out of the blue' very risk off sentiment.
Long
by johnelfedforexblog
EURUSD bullish continuation resistance at 1.1846The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1700 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1700 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1846 – initial resistance 1.1900 – psychological and structural level 1.1933 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1700 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1630 – minor support 1.1585 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1700 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadMacro Data Focus US: Heavy data slate with the Conference Board consumer confidence index, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed services, August JOLTS, and July FHFA house prices—all giving insight into growth momentum, labour demand and inflation pressures. China: September PMIs in focus for signs of resilience or renewed weakness in activity. Europe/UK: Germany CPI, unemployment, retail sales; France CPI, consumer spending & PPI; Italy CPI & PPI; UK Lloyds business barometer and Q2 current account. These will shape ECB/BoE rate expectations. Japan: Industrial production, retail sales, housing starts add to the policy debate after the BoJ’s recent meeting. Central Banks RBA: Policy decision first thing, with markets watching for any dovish signals. Fed: Jefferson and Goolsbee speaking, could add nuance to the rate path after recent data. ECB: Lagarde, Rehn, Cipollone, Nagel all on the calendar—expect plenty of commentary on inflation and growth. BoE: Lombardelli, Mann, Breeden speeches, key for forward guidance. BoJ: Release of the September meeting opinions for policy tone. Earnings Nike: Reports after the close, offering a read on consumer demand and global retail trends. Trading Takeaway Today is data-heavy across the US, Europe, Japan and China, so expect higher volatility with potential cross-asset spillovers. Inflation prints (Germany, France, Italy) and US confidence/JOLTS will be particularly influential for bond yields and rate expectations. Central bank speakers (Fed/ECB/BoE) add another layer of event risk. RBA decision sets the tone for Asia early on, while Nike earnings will be closely watched after hours. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Bearish expectation with bullish contingencyHello Traders, Today on EURUSD, price is currently reacting to a daily flip supply zone, which also aligns with a 4H supply zone—a strong confluence area. From this zone, our primary expectation is bearish, targeting the weak Lower Low (LL) below. However, momentum on the Lower Time Frame (LTF) is showing signs of a potential shift. To stay aligned with the Higher Time Frame (HTF) bias, it's crucial to wait for fresh confirmation on the 15-minute chart before executing shorts. ⚠️ Contingency Alert: If price manages to break above the strong Lower High (LH), we could see a bullish move toward the last swing high, invalidating the bearish setup. Stay flexible, trade with confirmation, and let price lead the narrative #EURUSD #ForexTrading #SupplyAndDemand #HTFbias #LTFconfirmation #PriceAction #BearishBias #BullishContingency #TradingStrategy #MarketStructure #ForexAnalysis #SmartMoneyConcepts #FXTrader #DailySetup #TradeWithDiscipline
Short
by fxtrends28
EURUSD Daily Forecast -Q3 | W40 | D30 | Y25|📅 Q3 | W40 | D30 | Y25| 📊 EURUSD Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
Thursday-Friday-Monday EU Trading Setup Mark the Thursday candle on Thursday. Determine the direction upward or downward of the day (60pips movement in Thursday). Put the volume profile and mark the price. Wait for Monday, if the price came back to the price then make your entry. If the price came back on the other day except for Monday, ignore the setup. Your stop loss should be at 0.6% price change of opposite direction, TP1 at 0.6%, and TP2 at 1.2% same direction (as per Thursday). Remember if price came back in Friday, wait for Monday. If the price came back in Tuesday or any other day then forget about it.
by RRW_SRE
2
sept 29: 1 loss, 2 winssept 29: 1 loss, 2 wins I saw that price tapped the DAY FVG + EQH up there and has downtrended massively, so I looked for shorts. Applied my AVWAPS, and my confluence filters(Orderflow+sweep+div+FVG), which was favorable so I entered. I kinda rushed into the first trade because I woke up late, but basically would have also won there if I just plotted the AVWAP first(yeah), because if i did plot my AVWAP, I would have seen that price has a few more pips before hitting the AVWAP line, so I could have put my entry higher and my stoploss higher. Well I just moved my SL on the first trade, and then re-entered twice after it "respected" the AVWAP (plotted from the DAY FVG STING). Standard 10TP5SL, and it won twice. so, good day I guess.
Short
by reventioaxie
EUR/USD Macro + Technical TargetLiquidity Run Complete • EUR/USD swept last week’s key high and stalled. • Dollar Index (DXY) just balanced on its weekly range—classic setup for a euro fade if USD strength resumes. Macro Undercurrent • U.S. Side: September core PCE inflation held at 2.8% y/y, keeping the Fed cautious about rate cuts. Futures now price only ~40 bps of easing into Q1. • Eurozone Side: HICP inflation slowed to 2.4% and the ECB’s minutes flagged “weak growth, sticky wages.” Rate-cut odds for March keep rising. Levels to Watch • Resistance near 1.17540,todays High • Southbound magnets: 1.16455 Lows
Short
by CORE5DAN
Monthly EUR/USD Update After the spring euphoria for the euro and the pound (GBP), the dollar seems to have slowed its pace, having largely priced in the scenario of a less restrictive monetary policy by the Fed. Focusing on EUR/USD, instead of congestion, we are seeing a bullish sideways trend that has persisted since August 22, 2025. While not immune to challenges, the European economy shows signs that support this phase, although attention remains high. Conversely, the US economy is suffering in terms of the labor force, and inflation remains "sticky." However, it should be noted that several other economic indicators (e.g., PMIs or retail sales) remain strong. All this compels Jerome Powell to maintain constant vigilance over incoming data to best balance future choices. The upcoming NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) release will undoubtedly provide further clues. For now, the sideways range perfectly reflects this state of uncertainty. Seasonally, the dollar has historically found significant strength during this part of the year, but no one can predict the future. Plausible Scenarios These are the two most plausible scenarios based on the data that will be released: Downside (Retracement Risk): A break of the dynamic support at 1.16465 could trigger a retracement of the trend down to the 1.14 area. Upside (Continuation): Conversely, a hold of the support and weak US data could lead the price to retest the previous highs and push even further. For the moment, we continue to witness a sideways phase with an accumulation of volumes. Happy trading to all! Disclaimer WARNING: These are market data analyses and forecasts, and they do not constitute financial advice in any way. Trading involves the risk of capital loss.
by SaltNuggetFund
EURUSD EURUSD recently broke below the ascending trendline and is now retesting the 1.1749 zone, which also aligns with volume profile resistance. 🔼 Bullish case: A clean reclaim above 1.1749 could signal strength, targeting 1.1800+. 🔽 Bearish case: Failure here may confirm the retest and drag price toward 1.1632 – 1.1616 and possibly 1.1578. 📌 Momentum Pendulum Model (MPM) highlights this as a decisive zone where buyers and sellers are battling for control. ⚠️ For educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Short
by akanniolubusuyi
EURUSD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Short
by Derry_Trades
1