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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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EUR/USD | SELLSTOP | 2H 🛑Price is reacting inside a supply zone near 1.17540 after breaking the descending structure. According to SMC Concept: 🛑BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish order flow. 🛑Expecting price to test the supply zone (1.17330 – 1.17540). 🛑From there, probability of rejection and continuation downside toward 1.17067 – 1.17075. 🛑Sell Stop idea is placed below structure to catch momentum. ⚡ Bias: Bearish under 1.17540 🎯 Targets: 1.17075 / lower liquidity levels 📌 Invalidation: Break & sustain above 1.17600 ---
Short
by Greenfireforex
1
EURUSD short, caution around busy macro weekPossible short on EURUSD subject to high impact data out from both the Eurozone and US. Fundamental setup EUR - Fairly stable with the ECB likely at the end of their cutting cycle and inflation at their 2% target. GDP saw some downside on their recent release as well as retail sales and manufacturing PMI USD - Interest rate differentials and short term hawkishness from the FED have supported USD upside. Markets started pricing in a more aggressive cutting cycle from the fed after weaker than expected labour market data and comments from Powell at Jackson Hole However, at the recent fed rate decision, Powell went back on this dovish tone, stating that they are cutting from a place of strength, and won't be panicking to cut aggressively. He said that although employment data was weak, it wasn't at a critical level and inflation remains sticky. They will hold rates if necessary to to avoid further increases in inflation. This was further confirmed by last weeks stronger than expected GDP, durable good and initial jobless claims. Week ahead - It's a busy week for both currencies with the USD data likely taking the lead. Stronger than expected US jobs data could see big upside as the FED waits for confirmation on the labour market strength. Technical setup Strong hourly resistance zone with several confluences: Trendline and previous swing lows providing resistance Volume profile - Volume cave filled provided resistance and POC accepted at lower price Fib retracement within current downtrend
Short
by ElGore18
EURUSD: Job figures next The most important US indicator for the week was the PCE Price Index for August. The PCE Index was higher by 0,3% for the month, bringing it to the level of 2,7% on a yearly basis. Figures were in line with market estimates. Core PCE slowed down to 0,2% for the month and 2,9% y/y. The Personal Income was higher by 0,4% in August, while Personal Expenses increased by 0,6% for the month. The Durable Goods orders were increased by 2,9% in August compared to the previous month, which was highly above market estimate of -0,7%. The GDP Growth rate final for Q2 is 3,8% for the quarter. The figure was above market expectations of 3,3% for the quarter. The S&P Global Composite PMI flash for September reached 53,6 modestly below market estimate of 54,6. New Home Sales increased by 20,5% in August for the month, drastically above estimated -1,8%. At the same time, Existing Home Sales dropped by -0,2% in August. The week-end brought University of Michigan Consumer Expectation figures final for September, of 55,1, in line with market estimates. The inflation expectations are holding at 4,7% for this year and five-year expectation of 3,7%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for September in Germany reached 48,5, below market estimate of 50. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was 49,4, again lower from estimated 50,7. The Ifo Business Climate in September was standing at 87,7 in Germany, below market estimate of 89,3. The GfK Consumer Confidence for October in Germany is in negative territory of -22,3. The US PCE and GDP data were the ones that were leading market sentiment during the previous week. The USD modestly regained some of the strength during the second half of the week. At the start of the previous week, the currency pair shortly tested the 1,18 resistance line, and soon after reverted back toward the 1,1650. The RSI also took the down-path, closing the week below the level of 50, around the 48. The MA50 is still pending to take the convergence path toward the MA200, however, still managing to hold a higher distance. What is certain is that the potential cross is still not in the store for these two indicators. Based on current charts, the expectations for the week ahead are modestly bearish. The first topic on charts is related to the supporting line which connects lows from end of February and end of July this year, which also supports lows from September on a daily chart. This line was broken to the downside as of the end of the previous week. At the same time, the level of 1,1650 has been tested, but this level is not the significant one for the eurusd currency pair. This might be an indication that the market would most probably seek to test the 1,16 support in the coming week. On the opposite side, 1,1770 levels could also be shortly tested, which blends with the a/m mentioned supporting line which was broken on Thursday. Anyway, the week ahead brings US JOLTs and Unemployment data in September on Friday, which promises to be another volatile day on financial markets. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail Sales in Germany in August, Unemployment rate in Germany in September, Inflation rate preliminary for September in Germany, Inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash for September, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in August, USD: JOLTs Job Openings in August, ISM Manufacturing PMI in September, Non-farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate for September will be posted on Friday, October 3rd.
by XBTFX
EURUSD Daily Forecast -Q3 | W40 | D29 | Y25|📅 Q3 | W40 | D29 | Y25| 📊 EURUSD Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 FX:EURUSD
Short
by JCFRGNT
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 29, 2025 EURUSDThe euro remains under pressure due to the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar after a series of solid U.S. macro releases and a revived discussion about the risks of a temporary government shutdown. The upward revision to U.S. Q2 GDP growth has strengthened the case for a more cautious pace of Fed easing, supporting yields and the dollar. Against this backdrop, the euro, despite brief rebounds, is trading close to the lows of recent weeks. Another factor is anticipation of upcoming U.S. releases on inflation and consumer activity, which the market views as critical for the Fed’s late-October decision. In Europe, investors’ attention is focused on the path of further disinflation and subdued growth; this leaves the ECB room for careful easing ahead, narrowing the yield differential to the euro’s disadvantage. In the near term, the balance of risks tilts toward moderate dollar strength: market participants prefer defensive positioning until the U.S. budget agenda and the next batch of price/activity data are clarified. As long as the euro lacks an additional boost from positive surprises in the euro area, pressure on EURUSD may persist. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.17350, SL 1.17550, TP 1.16450
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD: 1.1754/1.1820 Resistance — Sell BiasHi traders and investors! This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). On the daily timeframe, a sideways range has formed; the active vector is the seller’s with a target at 1.15278 (see the related post for details). Buyer recovery starts right from the 50% level. So it was a reasonable spot to take partial profits—e.g., close half the position—if you entered a full-size short on the sell signal. As for longs, we’re not considering them yet for two reasons: On the 1H chart the price broke out of the range to the downside and hasn’t returned inside yet; the range boundaries are marked with black lines. There are strong daily levels that could trigger a strong seller reaction: 1.17540 and 1.18200. Wishing you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
EURUSD InsightHello everyone, welcome back. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe. Key Points - The U.S. PCE Price Index for August rose 0.3% from the previous month and 2.7% year-on-year, while the Core PCE Price Index increased 0.2% and 2.9%, respectively, in line with market expectations. - If the U.S. federal government fails to reach a budget agreement by October 1, a shutdown will take place. In this case, the release of the September Employment Report could be delayed, and if prolonged, even the September CPI release could be affected. - According to the ECB’s consumer survey, one-year inflation expectations rose to 2.8% in August, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while five-year expectations rose to 2.2%, up 0.1 percentage points. Major Economic Events This Week + September 30: RBA interest rate decision, U.K. Q2 GDP, U.S. September JOLTS + October 1: Eurozone September CPI, U.S. September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + October 3: U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls, U.S. September Unemployment Rate EURUSD Chart Analysis After the recent decline, EURUSD seems to have found support around the 1.17000 level and is showing signs of recovery. If the pair can sustain this upward momentum, a rise toward the 1.20000 level could be expected. However, if downward pressure resumes at the current level, a retreat toward the 1.15000 level is possible. Therefore, close attention should be paid to the price action around the 1.17000 line.
Long
by shawntime_academy
EUR/USDChart Overview Pair: EUR/USD – 4-hour timeframe (OANDA). The chart highlights key support and resistance zones using wide pink/red horizontal areas. The upper zone, around 1.1735, is marked as a resistance area where price has repeatedly failed to break higher. The lower zone, around 1.1598, acts as a strong support level. Trend Lines A long rising (ascending) red trend line has recently been broken, signaling weakness in the previous uptrend. A blue descending trend line shows the current downward momentum. A short red trend line further illustrates the potential path for a sell setup. Trade Idea A text note on the chart says: “If a bearish momentum candle closes in this area then we sell.” This means the trader will wait for a strong bearish candle to close near the upper resistance zone before entering a sell trade. The blue rectangle marks the potential target area for the trade, pointing down toward the lower support zone near 1.1598. Summary This is a bearish setup: Watch for a bearish candle close in the resistance area. If confirmed, a short position could target the lower support zone. (This explanation is for educational purposes only—always perform your own analysis and risk management before trading.)
Short
by aaqureshi01
Euro massive breakout and a potential bull runEuro might be preparing for some intersting moves against the dollar for the upcoming year or so. On weekly, We got a massive break out on Monthly that we are holding well for several weeks, And on monthly and we have a Wycoff accumulation pattern, with a spring down (false breakdown), followed by a spring up breaking the down trend with supporting volume at spring and push up.. confirming the breakout. This may not be imminent, - I expect a cool off in this area to fix above the gaussian channel, with minor correction because when we look at the 3Montly, we can see the breakout and price being held under the mid line of the gaussian channel. If it held for 1 or 2 more candles (3-6 months), this will confirm the large potential breakout as history shows that whenever Euro USD broke out of a down trend - it take 1 to 2 3M candles before it makes massive runs And this works well as DXY currently at the lower bottom of the channel, after a failed swing high. At is current rate, It is expected to jump to 101, to hit the resistance of the failure swing, and then drops . The look of that 3M candle closing like that, another candle starts with wick up, and then down is what am anticipating creating a 3M candle that has broken under the channel - giving Euro the advantage.
Long
by mtrade8888
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1701 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1677 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.1716 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
No more contradictions. Weekly, daily and 4h are alignedAfter taking liquidity from the weekly swing high (red line), the price visited the monthly imbalance and got rejected straight back in the range. Furthermore a bearish Choch happened Those information are enough for me to be bearish on weekly timeframe, at least short time Daily just broken the swing, now need a retracement. The internal structure are in alignment with this idea 4h is also making lower highs and lower lows You can watch the video and see the whole analysis
Short
by stoianovionut22