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USDEUR trade ideas

EUR/USD Trading Plans EUR/USD Trade Plan 1. Bearish Setup (higher probability right now) Entry: If price closes below 1.16945 on the daily chart. Stop Loss (SL): Above 1.1765 (recent resistance). Take Profit (TP): TP1 → 1.1500 (psychological level & prior demand) TP2 → 1.1135 (major demand zone marked on your chart). 📉 Risk/Reward: Good (approx. 1:2 to 1:3 depending on TP). --- 2. Bullish Setup (if support holds) Entry: If price rejects 1.16945 with a bullish engulfing or strong pin bar. Stop Loss (SL): Below 1.1640 (under support wick). Take Profit (TP): TP1 → 1.1867 (immediate resistance) TP2 → 1.2191 (major resistance / supply). 📈 Risk/Reward: Decent (1:2 if aiming for 1.2191). 3. Neutral Zone (wait mode) If price is stuck between 1.16945 – 1.1765, better to wait. That’s a “decision zone” → market could flip either way. ✅ Summary Bias: Short-term bearish after rejection at 1.2191. Main level to watch: 1.16945 (support). Best plan: Sell below 1.16945 → aim for 1.1500 → 1.1135. Buy only if bullish rejection candles form at 1.16945. ⚠️ Always use proper risk management (1–2% risk per trade max).
by Switczyfx
The Day Ahead - The triple witching day!Data UK: September GfK consumer confidence and August retail sales → signals for household demand momentum; public finances update in focus for fiscal stance. Japan: August national CPI → key inflation read ahead of today’s BoJ decision. Germany: August PPI → important for eurozone disinflation trends. France: September manufacturing confidence → industrial outlook update. Canada: July retail sales → gauge on household spending. Central Banks Bank of Japan: Policy decision today; markets watching for any shift in yield curve control or forward guidance after recent inflation trends. Trading Impact FX: JPY volatility likely around BoJ; GBP moves tied to consumer sentiment/retail sales. Rates: UK gilt yields could react to retail sales/public finances; JGBs in focus on BoJ outcome. Equities: Japan equities sensitive to BoJ stance; European stocks watching German PPI and French confidence for growth/inflation signals. Commodities: German PPI a useful read on industrial demand trends across Europe. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 19, 2025 EURUSDThe US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 231,000 for the week ending September 13. The latest data was lower than the initial estimate of 240,000 and lower than the previous week's figure of 264,000 (revised from 263,000). Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 to 1.920 million for the week ending September 6. The US dollar remains strong after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced an expected rate cut on Wednesday but did not indicate that it would rush to lower borrowing costs in the coming months. The decline in the EUR/USD pair may be limited as the euro (EUR) could be supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will end its cycle of rate cuts after the release of the latest inflation data. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said the central bank should take a “very cautious” approach given the high uncertainty. Guindos added that the current rate is adequate given inflation trends and monetary policy transmission. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Euro Falls Near $1.18 as Dollar Strengthens and ECB Policy HoldsThe euro is trading around $ 1.18, just less than its highest levels in the four years reached earlier in the week, as the dollar rose after the decision of the Federal Reserve Policy. While in Europe, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row last week, indicating that the interest rate reduction course may have ended. Technically, the dollar recovery left the opportunity for the strength of the bears to dominate the momentum indicators for the 4-hour interval on the EURUSD pair, so the pair is likely to continue to decline during today's trading, targeting the next support levels around 1.1715, especially in case the support levels around 1.1735 do not succeed in stopping the price slippage
by shymaasheta029
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.177. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.168 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Price movement of the EUR/USD currency pairEUR/USD (Euro / US Dollar) Chart Analysis This chart shows the price movement for the EUR/USD currency pair on a 1-hour (1H) timeframe. The data is from the OANDA broker, with a timestamp of 06:38 UTC on September 19, 2025. 1. Price Analysis (Top Chart) Short-Term Trend: The price is in a downtrend since reaching its peak around 1.1900 on September 17. Rebound Zone: There is a zone marked as "RETEST AREA" in the price range of 1.17993 to 1.18200. This area likely corresponds to the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement levels. This is a critical area where the price previously dropped and then rose to test that resistance level. Possible Scenarios: If the price successfully rises and breaks through this "RETEST AREA," the downtrend could weaken or reverse. Conversely, if the price touches this area and fails to break through, then moves back down, it would be a strong confirmation that the downtrend will continue. The dashed line pointing down indicates this potential movement. 2. Indicator Analysis (Bottom Chart) RSI (Relative Strength Index) Indicator: The bottom chart displays the RSI indicator. RSI Condition: The RSI line is currently below the 50 level, at 39.66. This indicates that market momentum is bearish, meaning selling pressure is more dominant than buying pressure. Caution: The blue arrow points to a flattening or leveling of the RSI movement. This could suggest that the downtrend may be losing momentum, but there are no strong signs of a reversal yet. Analysis Summary Overall, the chart indicates that the EUR/USD pair is in a downtrend. Traders or investors looking at this chart would likely monitor the "RETEST AREA" (around 1.1800) as a key point. A break of this area or a failure to break it will provide clues for the next direction of price movement. This analysis is technical and does not consider fundamental economic factors. Always perform a comprehensive analysis before making any trading decisions.
by vrbnca
EURGBP Daily Forecast -Q3 | W38 | D19 | Y25|📅 Q3 | W38 | D19 | Y25| 📊 EURGBP Daily Forecast 🔍 Analysis Approach: I’m applying Smart Money Concepts, focusing on: Identifying Points of Interest on the Higher Time Frames (HTFs) 🕰️ Using those POIs to define a clear trading range 📐 Refining those zones on Lower Time Frames (LTFs) 🔎 Waiting for a Break of Structure (BoS) for confirmation ✅ This method allows me to stay precise, disciplined, and aligned with the market narrative, rather than chasing price. 💡 My Motto: "Capital management, discipline, and consistency in your trading edge." A positive risk-to-reward ratio, paired with a high win rate, is the backbone of any solid trading plan 📈🔐 ⚠️ Losses? They’re part of the mathematical game of trading 🎲 They don’t define you — they’re necessary, they happen, and we move forward 📊➡️ 🙏 I appreciate you taking the time to review my Daily Forecast. Stay sharp, stay consistent, and protect your capital — FRNGT 🚀 FX:EURGBP
Long
by JCFRGNT
EUR/USD 4H Trade Setup🔎 Bias Mid-term bullish continuation after corrective pullback into demand. 📊 Technical Breakdown Weekly/Daily: Structure remains bullish after breaking out of consolidation. 4H : Clear impulsive leg (i-ii-iii) with current correction into the 71% fib retracement. Demand zone: 1.1730 – 1.1770 aligns with BOS retest + liquidity sweep. Confluence : Trendline support + untested 4H demand. 🎯 Entry / Exit Entry zone : 1.1740 – 1.1770 demand Targets: TP1: 1.1860 TP2: 1.1960 TP3 (extended): 1.2050+ (wave (v) projection) Invalidation : Below 1.1685 ⚖️ Risk Management Risk only 1–2% per trade. Stop loss tucked under 1.1685 demand break. 📌 Outlook Expecting a corrective dip into demand before continuation higher. If demand holds → strong bullish wave (v) towards 1.20+. Bias: Pullback → Mid-term bullish 🚀
Long
by jamesibartram
Sanctioned EconomiesIntroduction Sanctions have become one of the most powerful tools in modern international relations. Instead of deploying armies or engaging in direct conflict, powerful nations and global institutions often turn to economic sanctions as a means of exerting pressure on adversaries. Sanctions can range from targeted restrictions on individuals and corporations to wide-ranging embargoes that limit a country’s ability to trade goods, access finance, or integrate with global systems. The consequences of sanctions extend far beyond the borders of the targeted nation. They reshape trade flows, alter supply chains, influence investment decisions, and sometimes trigger broader geopolitical realignments. In today’s interconnected global economy, sanctioning one nation often creates ripple effects across multiple regions, industries, and markets. This essay explores how sanctioned economies function, the types of sanctions imposed, their impacts on domestic and global markets, and the ways in which countries and corporations adapt to these restrictions. We will also examine real-world case studies of nations such as Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and North Korea to better understand the dynamics at play. Finally, we will consider the long-term implications of sanctions for global trade, energy security, and the shifting balance of economic power. Understanding Sanctions What Are Economic Sanctions? Economic sanctions are restrictions imposed by one or more countries to limit the economic activities of another country, group, or individual. They are often justified as tools to punish aggressive behavior, prevent human rights abuses, or deter actions that threaten international security. Sanctions can take many forms: Trade Restrictions – bans on the import or export of specific goods (e.g., oil, weapons, technology). Financial Sanctions – freezing assets, blocking access to global financial systems, restricting loans or investment. Targeted Sanctions – restrictions aimed at specific individuals, corporations, or political leaders. Comprehensive Sanctions – wide-ranging measures that isolate an entire economy from global trade (e.g., North Korea). Why Do Countries Impose Sanctions? Political Leverage: To pressure governments into changing policies (e.g., Iran’s nuclear program). Deterrence: To prevent actions such as territorial expansion or human rights violations. Punishment: To penalize states for actions deemed unacceptable by the international community. Signaling: To show unity among nations or institutions against a perceived threat. The Domestic Impact of Sanctions Sanctions are meant to squeeze the target country’s economy. Their effects can be harsh, often hitting ordinary citizens harder than political elites. Economic Slowdown Sanctions reduce access to international markets and capital, causing GDP contractions. For example, Iran’s economy shrank by over 6% in 2019 when U.S. sanctions tightened its oil exports. Inflation and Currency Collapse Restricted trade reduces supply, driving up prices. Combined with currency devaluation, inflation becomes rampant. Venezuela, for instance, has faced hyperinflation due in part to sanctions that limited its oil exports and foreign reserves. Unemployment and Poverty When industries lose access to export markets or imported raw materials, production declines. This leads to job losses, declining wages, and growing poverty levels. Technological Backwardness Bans on advanced technology exports prevent sanctioned countries from modernizing their industries. Russia, for example, faces difficulties in upgrading energy exploration due to restrictions on Western drilling technologies. Social Strains Sanctions can create shortages of medicines, food, and essential goods. While exemptions for humanitarian trade exist, logistical challenges often prevent adequate supply. How Sanctions Reshape Global Markets Sanctions don’t just affect the targeted country—they disrupt global trade patterns. The more interconnected the sanctioned economy is with the world, the larger the impact. 1. Energy Markets Energy is one of the most affected sectors. Countries like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela—major oil and gas exporters—have faced sanctions that limit their ability to sell hydrocarbons. Iran: Sanctions drastically reduced Iranian oil exports from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2011 to below 500,000 at times. This forced countries like India and China to diversify supply sources. Russia (2022 onwards): Restrictions on Russian oil exports shifted global flows. Europe turned to the Middle East, U.S., and Africa for crude, while Russia pivoted towards Asia, especially India and China, at discounted prices. 2. Supply Chain Disruptions Sanctions on raw materials like metals, fertilizers, and agricultural goods affect industries worldwide. For example, restrictions on Russian nickel exports disrupted global electric vehicle supply chains. 3. Financial System Fragmentation Banning banks from SWIFT, freezing assets, and blocking reserves push sanctioned nations to create alternative financial systems. Russia and China are now developing independent payment systems to reduce reliance on the U.S.-dominated dollar system. 4. Rise of Shadow Economies Sanctions give rise to parallel networks: smuggling, barter trade, and gray markets. For instance, Iran exports oil via secretive shipping routes and barter deals with allies. 5. Geopolitical Realignments Sanctions push targeted nations to build alliances with sympathetic powers. Russia has deepened ties with China, Iran, and other non-Western economies since 2022. Winners and Losers in Global Markets Winners Alternative Suppliers: Countries not under sanctions often benefit by replacing banned exporters. U.S. LNG exporters gained when Europe shifted away from Russian gas. Emerging Market Importers: Nations like India profited by buying discounted Russian oil. Technology Providers Outside the West: Chinese firms gained market share in sanctioned countries. Losers Sanctioned Nations: Severe economic damage, isolation, and reduced growth. Global Consumers: Higher prices for oil, food, and commodities. Multinational Corporations: Western firms lost profitable markets due to compliance with sanctions. Conclusion Sanctions have become a defining feature of modern geopolitics and global economics. While they are intended to discipline nations and change state behavior, their effects are far-reaching and often unpredictable. They reshape supply chains, realign global alliances, alter energy markets, and push the world towards multipolar trade structures. For sanctioned nations, survival often depends on adaptation, resilience, and finding alternative partners. For the global economy, sanctions create both winners and losers—emerging opportunities for some and severe disruptions for others. Ultimately, the rise of sanctioned economies illustrates how deeply interconnected the world has become. Restricting one nation sends ripples across the globe, challenging businesses, governments, and consumers alike. As sanctions continue to evolve as tools of statecraft, the world may witness not only new divides but also creative new forms of cooperation and resistance in the international economic order.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
2
EURUSD: Bulls Are Winning! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.18175 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.18387.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Long
by FreeXauusdSignals
Trading EURUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 15/09/2025The Judas Swing strategy is all about discipline, patience, and trusting the process, and this FX:EURUSD setup from Monday’s session was a perfect reminder of why sticking to the rules matters more than chasing results. As the Judas Swing session started, FX:EURUSD gave us the first clue we look for: a liquidity sweep above the zones high. Breakout buyers jumped in, only to find themselves trapped as price quickly reversed. This was our signal to get ready. But, as always, one signal isn’t enough. We needed the next confirmation: a break of structure to the downside. Once that shift in order flow printed, the setup was officially on our radar. Next came the waiting game. The strategy demands patience until price retraces back into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) created on the price leg that broke structure. It didn’t take long FX:EURUSD pulled back neatly, tapped into the FVG, and our entry candle closed. That was the green light. Risk per trade: 1% Target: 2% Risk-to-Reward: 1:2 Checklist complete. Trade executed. Unlike some trades where price rockets instantly, this one tested our patience. FX:EURUSD moved in our favor but reversed and even pulled against us. Momentum returned, but instead of pushing toward our 2% target, price lost steam mid-way and reversed. The result: a 1% loss The important lesson here is that a losing trade executed according to plan is still a successful trade. We didn’t chase the liquidity sweep. We didn’t anticipate the break of structure. We didn’t force an early entry. Every box was ticked, and the trade simply didn’t play out. That’s trading. The Judas Swing isn’t about winning every setup, it’s about trusting the process over the long run. By managing risk and staying consistent, we position ourselves for sustainable growth, even when individual trades don’t hit target.
by CleoFinance
EURO FUTURES (6E) – Weekly Structural OutlookBias: Short (Macro Caution) Structural Context Price is currently trading above the 75% Premium line, signaling overvaluation within the weekly dealing range. To extend this framework, we can introduce the concept of “Extreme Premium”, symmetrical to the Deep Discount (75%), projected at 75% of the top range. This acts as an upper extension where distribution probability increases significantly. Current Structure The latest move may be interpreted as local re-accumulation (if institutions continue adding to longs, supported by the Fed rate cut). However, given the relative price location (extreme premium), the probability of distribution grows, especially if supply zones on the weekly timeframe show rejection and sustained buying volume fails. Flow Reversal Confirmation For the weekly bias to shift decisively to Short, we would need: Clear institutional pressure in COT reports – net positioning flipping from long to short by asset managers. Break of the daily dealing range, confirming demand failure. Rising volatility (EVZ) to reinforce regime transition. 👉 Summary: Structurally, the Euro is in overvaluation territory (>75% premium). Without confirmation from COT positioning, it is premature to assume broad distribution. A valid short bias requires notable institutional reversal plus a daily dealing range break.
Short
by philipemav
EURUSD – Critical Zone AheadBack on June 29, I shared a buy idea on EURUSD (tagged below this post). Due to a busy schedule, I couldn't post an update—but as you can see, price reacted to my marked zone, did a quick stop-hunt, and moved up strongly. Now, the current zone marked on the chart is a potential short area, but again—we don’t tell the market what to do. We follow it. 📌 If the level breaks upward, we’ll wait for a pullback to go long. If a valid short signal shows up, we’ll go short. 🔁 Anything can happen—this is why I always remind traders: Don’t stand in front of the market. Those who do… often end up like sardines eaten by the whales 🐋—liquidated and out of capital. Let the market choose the direction, and we simply follow. 📈 Stay flexible. Stay humble. Stay profitable.
by ForexCSP
Key Levels to Watch on EUR/USD 1-Hour Chart”Pair / Timeframe: EUR / USD, 1-hour. Trend Bias: The drawn yellow path and the moving averages suggest a short-term bullish (upward) continuation idea. 2. Notable Price Zones (approximate levels read from the image) Zone Purpose Rough Price Range Lower pink box Support – buyers previously stepped in here 1.1760 – 1.1800 Middle pink box Interim support / prior breakout zone 1.1820 – 1.1840 Upper pink box Resistance – previous highs 1.1860 – 1.1880 Red horizontal line “Target point” marked on chart around 1.1918 These are areas, not precise numbers—price often reacts within a range. 3. Pattern Type (Educational View) It resembles a bullish continuation or “flag / channel breakout” concept: Consolidation after an up-move. Retests of the lower channel before a projected climb. 4. How Traders Often Frame Risk Traders using this idea might typically (for learning purposes) consider: Entry: Near the mid-support zone after a confirmed bounce. Stop Loss (protective exit): Below the lower support zone (under ~1.1760) to allow for volatility. Target / Take-Profit: Around the chart’s drawn objective near 1.1918. These are not recommendations—just an explanation of what the image depicts so you can present it clearly. --- Suggested Caption for Clients “EUR/USD 1H shows a bullish continuation setup. Key support ~1.1760-1.1800, resistance ~1.1860-1.1880, with a projected target near 1.1920 if momentum holds. Remember: zones are approximate and not financial advice.”
Long
by The-Trend-Mindset
EURUSDEURUSD has pulled back after the recent spike and is now consolidating between key horizontal levels. 🔹 Resistance: 1.1857 – Price needs to break and hold above here for further bullish continuation. 🔹 Immediate Support: 1.1779 – First line of defense for bulls. 🔹 Major Support: 1.1745 – Break below could open deeper downside potential. 📌 Currently, price sits around 1.1815. I’ll be watching how it reacts at 1.1779. A bounce could see another attempt at 1.1857, while a breakdown may expose 1.1745. ⚠️ This is an educational idea, not financial advice.
Long
by akanniolubusuyi