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USDEUR trade ideas

EURUSD Long Setup — Strong Entry with Tight Risk ManagementI’m looking at EURUSD for a potential long opportunity. Recent price action is showing bullish bias after holding above the key support zone. The entry is placed at 1.1849, with a protective stop loss at 1.18150 to manage downside risk. The setup is supported by fundamental developments — U.S. Unemployment Claims came in at 241K vs 263K previously, which initially gave the dollar a slight boost. However, the overall structure on EURUSD still favors buyers, especially after price rejection near the lower levels. I’ll be monitoring momentum and volume closely; if bullish follow-through builds, this could target the next resistance zone. Risk is kept tight, and trade management will depend on how the next H1 candle closes. This is a trade idea, not financial advice. Manage your own risk.
Long
by Qurban_Mirjat
1
Euro hits four-year high on strong German investor confidence, UThe euro has posted sharp gains on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1867, up 0.90% on the day. The euro has not been at these levels since September 2021. German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose modestly in September to 37.3, up from 34.7 in August. This blew past the market estimate of 26.3 and the euro has responded with sharp gains. The survey of financial experts indicates cautious optimism, with the outlook for the export sector showing promise after a prolonged decline. At the same time, the index monitoring the current economic situation worsened, declining to -76.4 from 68.6, below the market estimate of -75.0. It has been a bumpy road for Germany, which is the only G7 economy that has not posted growth in the past two years. Once the locomotive that drove the eurozone economy, Germany finds itself the laggard of the bloc. US retail sales for August were stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m. This was unchanged from an upwardly revised 0.6% in July and easily beat the market estimate of 0.2%. Retail sales increased across most sub-categories, as consumers showed they were in a spending mood despite a weaker job market and higher prices due to President Trump's tariffs. Annualized, retail sales jumped 5.0%, up from an upwardly revised 4.1% in August and above the forecast of 3.2%. At the same time, consumer sentiment has been softening, with consumers concerned about the impact of the tariffs. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since December 2024. The money markets have fully priced in a rate cut, with a quarter-point reduction practically a given. Investors will be looking for clues about the possiblity of additional rate cuts before the end of the year.
by OANDA
1
EURUSD – Upcoming Bearish Trend: Seize the Opportunity!Hello traders! Today, we will analyze EURUSD and make a forecast on the bearish trend ahead, based on the chart and key fundamental factors influencing this pair. The Fed cut interest rates to 4.25% as expected, but it did not exceed expectations, which means USD has not weakened. This creates downward pressure on EURUSD as USD maintains its strength. The unemployment claims data came in lower than expected, indicating a strong labor market , which supports USD, further increasing pressure on EURUSD. The chart shows that EURUSD is in an uptrend channel, but it is now showing signs of reversing when encountering resistance at 1.1880. If the price fails to break this level, EURUSD could drop to 1.1830, and continue to fall to lower levels. Specifically, if the price breaks below 1.1830, the next target will be 1.1750. With a clear downward trend and supporting market factors, EURUSD could continue to adjust downwards in the near term. Keep an eye on support and resistance levels to take advantage of effective trading
Short
by ShadowReaper_
2
EURUSDV - POIEURUSD has recently rejected from the 1.1876 – 1.1860 supply zone, showing strong selling pressure. Price is now pulling back into the Point of Interest (POI) around 1.1816 – 1.1803, which also aligns with channel structure support. 🔹 Upside levels to watch: 1.1860 and 1.1876 (supply zone resistance) 🔹 Downside levels to watch: 1.1803 and 1.1781 (support zone) 📌 If buyers defend the POI, we could see continuation back towards 1.1860+. 📌 A clear break below 1.1803/1.1781 may open the door for deeper retracement towards 1.1750 and the lower channel. This setup remains valid as long as price respects the POI zone and channel structure. ⚠️ This is an educational analysis, not financial advice.
Long
by akanniolubusuyi
1
EURUSD – Bearish Setup Building Below ResistanceEURUSD is showing signs of exhaustion after its recent push higher. Price has broken out of multiple consolidation phases but failed to sustain momentum above resistance, hinting that the bulls are losing steam. With fundamental pressures still weighing on the euro and dollar resilience holding, this pair is setting up for a potential continuation lower toward key support zones. Current Bias Bearish – Momentum is fading, and EURUSD looks vulnerable to a downside extension if support breaks. Key Fundamental Drivers ECB: Lagarde has signaled inflation is near target, leaving the door open for eventual easing if growth weakens further. Fed: Despite softer U.S. data (Beige Book reporting little/no growth), inflation risks and tariffs keep the Fed cautious, but rate cuts are still priced ahead. Tariffs/Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff agenda continues to pressure global risk sentiment, indirectly supporting the dollar in risk-off conditions. Macro Context Interest Rate Expectations: The market expects the Fed to begin cutting rates in the coming months, but at a slower pace than earlier anticipated. The ECB, meanwhile, is signaling comfort with softer inflation, keeping EUR capped. Growth Trends: Eurozone growth remains sluggish, weighed down by weak German data. U.S. growth is stagnating but still outpacing Europe. Commodity Flows: Lower oil prices weigh more heavily on the euro area’s terms of trade than the U.S., limiting EUR upside. Geopolitical Themes: Tariff escalation, Middle East tensions, and Ukraine risks keep safe-haven flows tilted toward USD. Primary Risk to the Trend A faster Fed easing cycle or stronger Eurozone data could flip sentiment and spark a EURUSD rebound. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event Eurozone PMI and German CPI for growth and inflation signals. U.S. Core PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Leader/Lagger Dynamics EURUSD is a leader among USD majors, often setting the tone for broad dollar direction. Movements here influence EUR-crosses (EURGBP, EURJPY) and follow USD risk drivers like Treasury yields and Fed expectations. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.1692, 1.1588 Resistance Levels: 1.1795, 1.1901 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1795 (above recent resistance) Take Profit (TP): 1.1588 (first target), extension toward 1.1500 if momentum accelerates Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURUSD currently carries a bearish bias, with sellers defending resistance near 1.1795 and downside targets pointing toward 1.1692 and 1.1588. A stop loss above 1.1795 protects against unexpected upside breakouts, while profit targets favor a continuation lower in line with weakening Eurozone fundamentals and sticky USD demand. The key watchpoints are Eurozone PMI, German CPI, and U.S. Core PCE. As the flagship USD pair, EURUSD will remain a leader in shaping global FX flows, so keeping an eye on its reactions to data will be crucial in confirming this bearish continuation setup.
Short
by ultreosforex
1
EUR/USD BEFORE FOMC VIEWOANDA:EURUSD Main Trend: The 4-hour chart clearly shows that EURUSD is in a strong uptrend, confirmed by the ascending trendline. Market Structure: After a breakout above the previous high, the price has created a new demand zone, labelled as "CP - ORDER". This zone is located roughly between 1.17600 and 1.17700. Footprint Analysis: The 1-hour footprint chart provides confirmation of the bullish momentum. It shows large volumes and significant positive delta (more buy orders than sell orders) being executed on the strong upward candles. Key Observation: The most recent bullish candle on the footprint chart (around 20:00) has a very large positive delta (+681) and high volume (12.19K), indicating strong buying pressure is driving the price up. This suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue. Trading Plan (BUY Plan) Based on this analysis, the primary strategy is to wait for a pullback and look for a buying opportunity, in line with the current upward trend. Entry: Wait for the price to retrace back to the CP - ORDER demand zone, which is around 1.17600 - 1.17700. This area is expected to contain significant pending orders. Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the low of the demand zone, at approximately 1.17100, or as marked on the chart. This position is also below the trendline, providing protection against deeper pullbacks. Take Profit (TP) Targets: Target 1: The most recent high, at around 1.18200. Target 2: You can hold the position to aim for higher levels, following the market's upward momentum. The ultimate target, as indicated by the arrow on the chart, could be the 1.19000 level or even higher. Conclusion This trading plan is a clear long setup based on a combination of technical analysis (uptrend and demand zone) and order flow analysis (strong positive volume and delta). However, you should always keep the following in mind: Make sure the price actually pulls back to the CP - ORDER zone and shows signs of confirmation (e.g., a bullish pin bar, an increase in volume) before entering a trade. Practice strict risk management by adhering to the defined stop-loss level. DXY ANALYSIS IN DONWTREND and High Rate back to Higher OB
Long
by Linda_OneShotTrader
6
EUR/USD WEEKPLAN ANALYSIS: Ready for ShortMarket Structure Analysis OANDA:EURUSD Change of Character (ChoCH): The price shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend by breaking the previous high, which is marked as "ChoCH". This is the first signal indicating a change in the trend. Break of Structure (BOS): After the ChoCH, the price continued to form higher highs and higher lows. A strong upward move broke the most recent high, creating a new "BOS". This confirms that the uptrend is continuing. Current Trend: The current market structure is bullish. The price has created a new high (HH) and is now in a corrective phase, pulling back to find a strong support zone. Analysis of Key Zones Based on the market structure, there are key zones to watch: BUY ZONE: Location: The price range is from ~1.1670 to ~1.1690. Significance: This zone is a crucial Order Block (OB). It was formed by the last candle before the price started its strong upward move, breaking the structure (BOS). According to SMC logic, this is where "Smart Money" placed large buy orders to push the price up, and the price is highly likely to retrace to "fill" the remaining orders. This is the most potential entry point for a long position. SELL ZONE: Location: The price range is from ~1.1820 to ~1.1840. Significance: This zone is an Order Block and may also contain an Imbalance (liquidity gap). The price has already pulled back and had a minor reaction to this area. This is a temporary resistance zone. If the price continues to correct lower towards the "BUY ZONE", it will break through this area. Liquidity and Stop Loss Zones: Stop Loss (HH): The stop loss for a potential short trade would be placed above the highest peak (~1.1900). Stop Loss (LL): The stop loss for a potential long trade would be placed below the lowest low (below the "BUY ZONE", ~1.1640). This area holds liquidity for buy orders placed here. If the price breaks this zone, the bullish structure could be invalidated, and the trading plan needs to be reconsidered. Trading Plan Based on the analysis, there are two main scenarios for trading EUR/USD: Primary Scenario (Long Trade): Strategy: Wait for the price to continue its corrective pullback. Entry: Place a pending buy order in the BUY ZONE (~1.1670 - 1.1690). Reasoning: This is the strongest Order Block zone, where the price is highly likely to reverse to continue the uptrend. Take Profit: TP1: The nearest high, above the SELL ZONE (~1.1840). TP2: The current highest peak (~1.1880). TP3: The liquidity zone above the high (HH) (~1.1920). Stop Loss: Place it below the lowest low (LL), which is below the BUY ZONE (~1.1640). Alternative Scenario (Short-Term Short Trade): Strategy: Based on the current correction. Entry: Consider a short-term sell trade when the price hits the SELL ZONE (~1.1820 - 1.1840). Reasoning: This is a temporary resistance zone that could push the price down to fill the BUY ZONE below. Take Profit: The BUY ZONE (~1.1670). Stop Loss: Place it above the nearest peak within the corrective phase (~1.1860). Important Note: The long trade scenario (primary plan) is more reliable because it aligns with the main market trend. The short trade scenario should be considered a short-term, higher-risk trade. Always follow proper risk management principles and only enter a trade with clear confirmation signals (e.g., a reversal candlestick pattern or a clear reaction to the key zones).
Long
by Linda_OneShotTrader
2
EU started the dropHi traders, Look at my EU outlook of last week and where price is now. I don't know any other outlook that is this accurate. It looks like the ending diagonal (wave 5) has finished and this pair started the drop. So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove and more downside. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of a correction up and a change in orderflow to bearish on a lower time frame to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Elliott wavecount and patterns, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
1
Orderflow x Auction TheoryCME:6E1! The 4H chart of Euro Futures (6EZ025) shows that after drawing on liquidity above 1.1930, price reversed and is now retracing into a demand zone around 1.1780–1.1800, overlapping with a weak order block and near the value area high. While short-term reactions may offer a bounce back toward the balance zone around 1.1850–1.1870, the overall structure remains bearish, suggesting that if demand fails, price is likely to continue lower into the broader fair value area near 1.1680.
Long
by FervTrades
1
EUR/USD Could Skyrocket if They Cut 50bps!The market is certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during tomorrow's meeting, with a small chance of a 50 bps reduction priced in. Two Fed policymakers, Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman , may be thinking of this FOMC meeting as an audition to take over the Fed Chair from Jerome Powell, which means they might push for a 50 bps cut tomorrow to impress President Trump (who thinks interest rates are 300 basis points too high at the moment). Additionally, Trump stooge Stephen Mirin was added to the voting Fed board yesterday, just in time to push for an outsized interest rate cut. This speculation is likely contributing to the recent rise in EUR/USD. Today’s movement has taken the pair above the prior yearly high at 1.1829, which was set in late July. This breakout signals the potential continuation of the bullish trend, with the next possible resistance coming into focus at the double swing highs from August 2021, around 1.1900.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
EURUSD(20250919) Today's AnalysisMarket News: On Thursday, the U.S. reported its largest drop in initial jobless claims in nearly four years, reversing the previous week's sharp increase. (Note: Hours after the data was released, news broke that North Carolina's continuing claims data had been incorrectly and significantly understated by over 19,000. A Labor Department spokesperson stated that the matter is still under investigation.) Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.1794 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.1892 1.1855 1.1832 1.1757 1.1733 1.1697 Trading Strategy: On a breakout above 1.1794, consider entering a buy position, with the first target at 1.1832. On a breakout above 1.1757, consider entering a sell position, with the first target at 1.1733.
Short
by GoldenBigAge
1
EURUSD is bearish trend EUR/USD 1H chart: The broader structure is still bearish (market has been making lower highs and lower lows). Price recently bounced from the 1.1726 low, but the move up looks like just a pullback inside the bearish trend. Current price (1.1802) is under resistance around 1.1831 – 1.1850 zone. Unless we see a strong break and close above 1.1850, this area is likely to act as a supply zone where sellers can step back in. Based on the structure: Bias = Sell (short) around this level, targeting back toward 1.1750 / 1.1726. Invalidation = If price breaks and holds above 1.1850, then the short idea is invalid and we could look for buys targeting 1.1900. So right now: Sell is higher probability.
by xulbaale114
1
Don´t Short EUR/USD Until This HappensSo can you see that this morning´s breakout broker the blue algo we were in with a stronger green buying algo. I have it sketched in the charts. But pretty much be very cautions if you´re going to short this while inside the green. Instead look for a rejection of off previous resistance, like a shoulder paired with the break of green. Right now there is liquidity of that 1.1850 level Though the break of green doesn´t necessarily mean selling begins, only that bulls are losing momentum to build more liquidity. For stronger bearish breaks look for the blue algo or even better for the yellow algo to become resistance. Let me know if you have any questions in the comments
by AWRSwingTrading
2
EURUSD H1 09/18/2025This chart displays the price movement of the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair on a one-hour (1H) timeframe. The chart shows a strong uptrend, followed by a price correction or retracement. Here are some key things visible in the chart: Uptrend Line (Dashed Slanted Line): Indicates that the price has been consistently moving upwards. Fibonacci Levels (Dashed Horizontal Lines): The green line at the 0.5 level (1.17699) and the green line at the 0.618 level (1.17691) are Fibonacci retracement levels. These are areas where the price often pauses or bounces after a correction. Buy Zone (Green Box): A green box indicates a suggested "buy" area. This zone starts from the 0.5 Fibonacci level up to the 1.18591 level. Stop Loss Zone (Red Box): The red box indicates the area where a stop loss (loss limit) is placed, which is below the 0.618 Fibonacci level, specifically at 1.17600. This is the point where you would exit the trade to limit losses if the price continues to fall. Overall, this chart illustrates a trading strategy that attempts to capitalize on a price reversal after a correction, using Fibonacci levels to determine the entry point, target, and loss limit.
Long
by vrbnca
1
EUR/USD: Gradual Rise, Is a Breakout Near?Hey everyone, Ken here! Looking at the EUR/USD chart today, I see a pretty clear signal. The price isn’t rushing upwards; instead, it’s moving slowly, indicating that the buyers are gradually taking control, but there hasn't been a strong breakout yet. For me, there’s no reason to rush into a trade just yet. I’m going to wait for a clearer signal, like a strong candle confirming a break of the resistance around 1.1800. If that happens, my target will be around 1.2XX, as the current market trend seems favorable for that. However, one thing to keep in mind is if the price closes below the lower boundary of the channel, the bullish structure would be broken, and a short-term decline could follow. What do you think about this setup? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Long
by Kenn_Nguyen
5
EURUSD - Already Overbought!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈EURUSD has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. However, it is currently retesting the upper bound of its channel. Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper blue trendline and green resistance. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Short
by TheSignalyst
2