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U.S. Dollar / Euro

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“EUR/USD 15m Outlook | Bullish Bias from Demand ZonePrice is currently balancing between the demand zone (buyers at 1.1607 – 1.1635) and the supply zone (1.1680 – 1.1720). 📌 If demand holds → Expect liquidity grab → retest → bullish continuation into supply. 📌 If supply reacts → Watch for rejection → intraday shorts possible before next rally. This setup is not about guessing direction — it’s about hacking the structure: let price tell the story, then follow the flow.
Long
by greenfire_fx
1
What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model?What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data, making it a popular tool in financial markets. Traders apply ARIMA to assess historical price trends and identify structured patterns in market movements. This article explains how ARIMA works, its strengths and limitations, and how it can be integrated into trading strategies for a deeper analysis of price behaviour across different assets. Understanding ARIMA ARIMA stands for autoregressive integrated moving average, a widely used model for analysing time series data. It’s particularly useful in financial markets because it helps traders break down price movements into patterns based on historical data. To understand how ARIMA works, it’s important to look at its three components: - Autoregressive (AR): This part captures the relationship between a current value and its past values. For example, if the price of an asset today is influenced by its price over the last few days, that’s an autoregressive process. - Integrated (I): Many financial time series exhibit trends, making them non-stationary (meaning their statistical properties change over time). ARIMA “integrates” the data by differencing it—subtracting past values from current ones—to make it more stable for analysis. - Moving Average (MA): Instead of focusing on past prices, this component looks at past errors—how much previous values deviated from expected trends—to refine the analysis. Each ARIMA model is defined by three parameters: p (AR order), d (number of differences), and q (MA order). Selecting these values requires statistical tests, autocorrelation analysis, and model evaluation methods like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). In practice, ARIMA modelling is often used in trading to analyse historical price trends and identify repeating patterns. How ARIMA Works in Market Analysis Applying ARIMA to financial markets involves a structured process that helps traders analyse price movements based on historical patterns. Since markets generate continuous time series data—such as stock prices, forex rates, and commodity values—ARIMA can be used to extract meaningful trends from past performance. However, applying ARIMA to a time series isn’t done blindly; there are key steps analysts follow to try to improve its effectiveness. 1. Checking for Stationarity Most raw financial data isn’t stationary—it often trends upwards or downwards over time. ARIMA requires stationarity, meaning that statistical properties like mean and variance remain constant. Traders test for this using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. If the data is non-stationary, differencing (subtracting previous values from current values) is applied until stationarity is achieved. 2. Identifying AR and MA Components Once the data is stationary, traders determine how much past price data (AR) and past errors (MA) influence current values. This is done using Autocorrelation Functions (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Functions (PACF): - ACF measures how strongly past values are correlated with present values. - PACF isolates the direct relationship between a value and its past lags, ignoring indirect effects. These tools help traders estimate the AR (p) and MA (q) components of the model. 3. Selecting the Right Parameters Choosing the right values is crucial, and traders often rely on criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to compare different model variations and select the best fit. 4. Applying ARIMA to Market Data Once the parameters are set, the ARIMA model is trained on historical price data. It analyses past relationships between price movements, smoothing out noise and detecting underlying trends. While traders can use ARIMA forecasting to assess potential market direction, it is usually combined with volatility analysis, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors to provide a more complete picture of market conditions. Applying ARIMA to Trading Strategies Traders use ARIMA to analyse historical price data and assess potential trends. Moreover, it’s often combined with technical indicators and other market factors to refine trading strategies. The key is understanding where ARIMA fits in the bigger picture of market analysis. 1. Identifying Trend Continuations and Reversals ARIMA helps traders assess whether an asset’s price movement follows a structured pattern over time. By analysing past relationships between prices, the model provides insights into whether an upward or downward trend has statistical momentum or if recent price action is deviating from historical patterns. For example, a trader analysing a currency pair might use ARIMA to assess whether the recent upward trend aligns with historical movements or if past patterns suggest a shift in direction. While ARIMA doesn’t account for sudden market shocks, it can potentially highlight whether recent price action aligns with established statistical trends. 2. Evaluating Market Volatility Price trends alone don’t tell the full story—volatility plays a major role in how assets move. Traders sometimes apply ARIMA to historical volatility data to assess how price swings have evolved over time. This can be useful when comparing different assets or assessing how external events impact volatility patterns. For instance, if ARIMA analysis suggests that a stock’s volatility has been steadily increasing over several weeks, traders may adjust their position sizing or incorporate additional risk control. 3. Combining ARIMA with Technical Indicators Historical price relationships are the primary focus with ARIMA, meaning traders often pair it with moving averages, Relative Strength Index, or Bollinger Bands to refine their analysis. If ARIMA suggests a continuation of a trend and this aligns with a moving average crossover or RSI strength, it can add confidence to a trading decision. Institutional traders and hedge funds use ARIMA in systematic trading models, often integrating it with machine learning or fundamental data. While traders may not rely on ARIMA as their primary tool, incorporating it into a broader strategy may help assess market structure, historical price relationships, and potential trend shifts, especially when used alongside other forms of analysis. Strengths and Limitations of ARIMA Models in Trading Although ARIMA is widely used in financial market analysis, like any analytical tool, it has strengths and limitations that traders should be aware of. Strengths of ARIMA in Trading Captures Historical Relationships Well ARIMA is particularly popular at analysing price trends that follow consistent patterns over time. If an asset’s price movements show a clear relationship with its past values, ARIMA can help quantify these patterns and provide a structured analysis of potential market direction. Useful for Short- to Medium-Term Analysis While some statistical models focus on high-frequency data or long-term macro trends, ARIMA sits comfortably in the middle. It works well for daily, weekly, or monthly price analysis, making it useful for traders who look at trends over these timeframes. Well-Established and Interpretable Unlike complex machine learning models, an ARIMA forecast is straightforward in its assumptions. Traders can understand why a model is generating certain outputs, as ARIMA is based on clear mathematical relationships rather than black-box algorithms. Applicable to Different Market Data ARIMA isn’t restricted to just price movements—it can be used to analyse volatility, trading volume, and macroeconomic indicators, making it a flexible tool for different types of market assessments. Limitations of ARIMA in Trading Assumes Linear Relationships ARIMA is used when price movements follow a linear structure, meaning past values have a direct and proportional effect on future movements. However, markets often experience sharp reversals, liquidity shocks, and external events that don’t fit neatly into this assumption. Requires Stationarity Many financial assets exhibit non-stationary behaviour—meaning their statistical properties change over time. ARIMA requires differencing to adjust for trends, but in some cases, even after differencing, the data still doesn’t meet stationarity requirements. Computationally Intensive for Large Datasets While ARIMA is widely used in trading, its calculations become more demanding as the dataset grows. For traders dealing with high-frequency or multi-asset strategies, ARIMA may require significant computational resources, making alternative models like machine learning-based approaches more practical. The Bottom Line ARIMA is a valuable tool for analysing historical price trends and assessing potential market movements. While it has limitations, traders often use it alongside technical indicators and volatility analysis to refine their strategies. FAQ What Is an ARIMA Model? ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data. It identifies patterns in historical values using three components: autoregression (AR), differencing (I) to make data stationary, and moving averages (MA). Traders apply ARIMA to assess market trends based on past price movements. Is ARIMA Still Used in Market Analysis? Yes, ARIMA remains widely used in financial and economic analysis. While newer machine learning models have gained popularity, ARIMA is still valuable for structured time series data, particularly in short- to medium-term market analysis. What Is the Most Popular ARIMA Model? There is no single most popular ARIMA model—it all depends on the dataset. The model is selected based on statistical criteria like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which helps determine the optimal combination of AR, I, and MA components. How to Determine P, D, and Q in an ARIMA Model? The ARIMA p, d, and q values are determined through statistical tests. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test checks for stationarity (d), while autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions help identify p (AR terms) and q (MA terms). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Targeting 1.04100 and 0.9700ASX:EUR / AMEX:USD (2W) Hedge funds are trimming net long EUR/USD positions, with COT data showing net longs at 118.7K contracts (week ending August 26, 2025), down from 123.4K, and shorts growing, indicating bearish shifts. Funds like Bridgewater and Soros are likely adding shorts amid tariff risks. Economic data / Rates: • Eurozone inflation at 2.1%, GDP +0.1% QoQ, and US tariffs threaten 0.5-1% GDP cut, prompting ECB rate-cut talks. • Eurozone GDP +0.1% vs. US +0.8%, unemployment ~6.4%, PMI ~50.1. 2025 growth forecast at 0.9%. • ECB likely to resume cuts post-September (from ~2.0%), Fed at 4.25-4.5% with 80% odds of a September cut, widening the gap. My View: EUR/USD likely to drop from 1.16400 to 1.04100 short-term, 0.9700 long-term (1:10 risk-reward, stop at 1.17575). Watch ECB Sep 11, Fed Sep 17, US NFP. Entry: $1.16400 🎯 Take Profit 1: $1.04100 🎯 Take Profit 2: $0.9700 Stop Loss: 1.17575 #EUR #EURUSD #Trading
Short
by SergioRichi
EURUSD sideways consolidation resistance at 1.1544The EURUSD remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 1.1544 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 1.1544 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 1.1714 – initial resistance 1.1795 – psychological and structural level 1.1890 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 1.1544 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 1.1500 – minor support 1.1450 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the EURUSD holds above 1.1544 A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
The Day AheadEconomic Data: US August ADP report, ISM services, July trade balance, initial jobless claims, UK August new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany August construction PMI, Eurozone July retail sales, Canada July international merchandise trade, Switzerland and Sweden August CPIs Central banks: Fed's Williams speaks, ECB's Cipollone speaks, BoE's DMP survey Earnings: Broadcom, Lululemon This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pulback resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracemen and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1662 !st Support: 1.1587 1st Resistance: 1.1734 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EUR/USD bullish short- termThe US dollar (USD) is under pressure as markets anticipate a possible rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could weaken the currency. Meanwhile, the eurozone remains stable, supporting the euro’s position. On the chart, price is currently testing a key support level reinforced by an ascending trendline and a strategic Fibonacci level. As long as this support holds, the bullish scenario remains favored, with a potential target around 1.1698. 💡 Strategy: Monitor price action at this support, especially ahead of any Fed announcements that could confirm or deny the expected rate cut.
Long
by Pierreolivierla
1