Get started

USD/JPY_TOMSPT - SWAP USD/JPY

No trades
See on Supercharts
OverviewNewsIdeasDiscussionsSeasonalsEconomic Calendar

USDJPYTMSP trade ideas

USD/JPY - H1 chart technical analysis (23/9/2025)1. Current Trend The chart is on a 1-hour timeframe (H1) and shows sideways consolidation within a rectangle (boxed area) after a prior downtrend. Price is currently pulling back slightly after reaching point A, setting up for a potential ABC upward move. 2. Technical Pattern This chart displays a potential ABC correction / impulse wave within the consolidation zone: A → B: a small corrective pullback after a minor rally. B → C: anticipated upward move toward the upper boundary of the rectangle (~0.00684), completing wave C. The rectangle indicates range-bound trading, meaning buyers and sellers are balanced but the ABC pattern suggests a bullish bias in the short term. 3. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support: ~0.006745–0.006750: previous swing lows and rectangle base (point B). 0.006720: the lowest point of the current range. Resistance: ~0.006830–0.006840: upper boundary of the rectangle (point C target). 0.006860: minor psychological level above the rectangle. 4. Trading Strategy Buy near point B pullback: Entry: ~0.006745–0.006750. Stop loss: below 0.006730 to avoid a false breakdown. Take profit: ~0.006830–0.006840 (upper rectangle boundary, wave C target). Confirmation signals: Watch for bullish candlestick patterns at support. Ensure momentum indicators (e.g., RSI H1) are not overbought. Risk: If price breaks below 0.006730, the bullish ABC scenario may fail, indicating a possible retest of lower support levels. 5. Summary USD/JPY is range-bound but forming a short-term ABC upward move. Point B provides a potential buying opportunity, with wave C targeting the upper rectangle boundary at ~0.00684. Traders should combine price action at support, ABC pattern, and momentum indicators to increase probability of a successful trade.
by Henrybillion
Today Trading Opportunity - USDJPY - Education Hi Retail Traders" when you look at the 1 hour Time Frame we can see - USDJPY expected to Fall Down ... Kindly Use Proper Risk management with money management" Please do your Own analyzation before you Trade 📢 ............................................................. As per Indian Time we have 2 NEWS 📢 S&P Global Services PMI (Sep) 📢 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) We can expect News to come Negative- which means we can see Gold to Rise up - USD become Weaker Please Do support me - Give 👍and Follow me"
Short
by MastermindIntelligent
1
USD/JPY - Trading Edge TodayDear Friends in Trading, 🎯Trading Edge: Sitting just below intervention risk - any move above 148.00 creates high probability reversal setup Key Level: 148.00 (BoJ intervention threshold) Pivot: 147.50 – 147.80 Bias: Neutral below intervention level Bull target: 148.20 → 148.50 Bear target: 147.00 → 146.50 Correlation: -72% inverse with GBPUSD, +78% with US10Y yields FOREX Cross-Asset Correlation: EURUSD🔄GBPUSD🔄USDJPY 🟢EURUSD above 1.1800 + GBPUSD above 1.3510 = coordinated USD weakness 🔴USDJPY rejection at 148.00 confirms broad dollar selling pressure I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
by ANROC
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2025 USDJPYThe key fundamental driver remains unchanged: the yield and rate gap between the US and Japan, where the Bank of Japan maintains ultra-loose policy while the US supports relatively high yields, systematically supporting long USD positions against the yen. In quiet periods, carry trade mechanics work stably, and occasional verbal interventions from Tokyo usually have short-lived effect without trend base changes absent central bank policy shifts. On this background, even after pullbacks, the pair tends to resume gains reflecting yield premium and global USD demand amid strengthening US macro data. News assessments on EURUSD and market sentiment highlight high USD sensitivity to inflation and labor data releases, which, upon strong data, usually translates into USDJPY gains via the UST curve. With ECB holding rates and markets expecting Fed easing later, short-term USD fluctuations are often data surprise-driven, while yen remains the "weak link" due to BOJ policy. Therefore, an entry near 147.800 is justified for tactical buying with controlled risk until signs of sustained policy shifts in Tokyo or sharp US yield drops emerge. Current cross rates through EUR confirm the USDJPY calculated target near 147.800 for today's session, consistent with entry choice at 147.800 for carry-support continuation scenario. Risk management implies a tight stop within 0.20 given possible short-term volatility on news and comments from Japanese officials. The target around 148.800 reflects gradual advance amid sustaining divergence in US-Japan monetary regimes. Trading recommendation: BUY 147.800, SL 147.600, TP 148.800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to boost and subscribe. Key Points - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials continue. Alberto Musalem, President of the St. Louis Fed, said, “I believe there is limited room for further easing, and we must proceed cautiously.” Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, stated, “I remain concerned about inflation, which has been too high for too long. At present, I do not support moving or lowering rates, and I will continue to monitor the situation.” - Board member Myron noted that the current policy rate is “very restrictive and could pose a real risk to the Fed’s employment objectives.” He added, “In my judgment, the appropriate federal funds rate should be in the mid-2% range, nearly 2 percentage points lower than current policy.” - In Japan, following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, five candidates, including Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi, have entered the race, with Koizumi reportedly leading in intra-party support. This Week’s Key Economic Events + September 23: U.S. Manufacturing PMI (September), U.S. Services PMI (September), Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech + September 25: U.S. GDP (Q2) + September 26: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (August) USDJPY Chart Analysis Following the FOMC meeting, the pair briefly retreated to the 145.5 level but quickly recovered, pulling the price back into the 146–149 range. It is currently trading near 147.6, with potential to rise toward the 149 level. While the range is expected to hold, we will quickly adjust our strategy if it breaks above 149 or falls below 146.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 22 - 26 SeptemberMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: US Durable Goods, GDP Final, PCE, Personal Income & Spending In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets. 👉 Key topics covered in this episode: 00:16 — US Durable Goods Orders 01:09 — US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 01:54 — US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & Personal Spending 03:00 — Trade Tensions Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
Cross-Border Central Bank CooperationI. Mechanisms of Cross-Border Central Bank Cooperation Central Bank Liquidity Swap Lines Central bank liquidity swap lines are agreements between central banks to exchange currencies, providing liquidity to financial institutions in foreign markets. These arrangements are crucial during periods of market stress, as they ensure the availability of foreign currency and stabilize financial systems. For instance, the Federal Reserve has established swap lines with numerous central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, to facilitate dollar liquidity during times of need. Cross-Border Supervisory Cooperation Effective supervision of internationally active banks requires collaboration between home and host country regulators. Supervisory colleges, comprising representatives from various regulatory bodies, facilitate information sharing and joint decision-making. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has emphasized the importance of such cooperation in ensuring the stability of cross-border banking operations. Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and Cross-Border Payments The advent of CBDCs presents new opportunities and challenges for cross-border payments. Initiatives like Project Jura, a collaboration between the Bank of France and the Swiss National Bank, have explored the use of wholesale CBDCs for cross-border settlements, aiming to enhance efficiency and reduce costs. Additionally, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has highlighted the potential of CBDCs to improve the efficiency of cross-border payments, provided that countries work together to address interoperability and regulatory issues. II. Institutional Frameworks Supporting Cooperation The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) The BIS serves as a central hub for central bank cooperation, providing a platform for dialogue and collaboration among central banks and international financial institutions. Through its various committees, such as the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI), the BIS facilitates the development of global standards and best practices in areas like payment systems, financial stability, and digital currencies. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) The FSB plays a crucial role in promoting international financial stability by coordinating the development of regulatory, supervisory, and other financial sector policies. It works closely with national authorities and international standard-setting bodies to monitor and address systemic risks, including those arising from cross-border banking activities. Regional Cooperation Initiatives In addition to global frameworks, regional cooperation initiatives have emerged to address specific challenges. For example, the European Union's Banking Union aims to integrate banking supervision and resolution mechanisms across member states, enhancing the stability of the euro area banking system. III. Challenges and Risks in Cross-Border Cooperation Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical factors can influence the dynamics of central bank cooperation. For instance, China's efforts to internationalize the renminbi have led to the establishment of alternative payment systems like the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which aims to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and the SWIFT network. Regulatory Divergence Differences in regulatory standards and practices across countries can complicate supervisory cooperation. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has worked to harmonize regulations, but challenges remain in aligning national laws with international standards. Technological Disparities The rapid advancement of financial technologies, including digital currencies and payment systems, has created disparities in technological capabilities among countries. Ensuring interoperability and security in cross-border digital transactions requires concerted efforts and investments in infrastructure. IV. Future Directions Enhanced Digital Currency Collaboration As countries explore the issuance of CBDCs, international collaboration will be essential to ensure interoperability and address regulatory challenges. Initiatives like the mBridge project, involving multiple central banks, aim to test the feasibility of cross-border CBDC transactions. Strengthening Supervisory Colleges Expanding the scope and effectiveness of supervisory colleges can improve the oversight of cross-border banking activities. This includes enhancing information sharing, aligning regulatory practices, and developing joint resolution plans for systemically important financial institutions. Building Resilient Payment Infrastructures Developing robust and resilient payment infrastructures is crucial for facilitating efficient cross-border transactions. This involves investing in secure technologies, standardizing protocols, and ensuring that payment systems can withstand disruptions. Conclusion Cross-border central bank cooperation is integral to maintaining the stability and efficiency of the global financial system. Through mechanisms like liquidity swap lines, supervisory collaboration, and digital currency initiatives, central banks can address the complexities of international finance. However, to navigate the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions, regulatory divergence, and technological disparities, sustained dialogue, harmonization of standards, and joint efforts are essential. As the global financial landscape continues to evolve, strengthening cross-border cooperation will be pivotal in fostering a resilient and inclusive financial system. Recent Developments in Cross-Border Central Bank Cooperation China's Enhanced Regulation of Cross-Border Yuan Financing: China's central bank has announced plans to improve regulation of cross-border yuan financing between banks, aiming to enhance the Chinese currency's global use and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar amid ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions. ECB and PBOC Extend Liquidity Swap Agreement: The European Central Bank (ECB) and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) have agreed to extend their existing currency swap agreement for another three years, continuing through October 2028. This arrangement provides temporary liquidity support in renminbi to euro area banks in the event of a sudden market disruption. HSBC Hong Kong Joins China's CIPS: HSBC Hong Kong has joined China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) as a direct participant. This move positions HSBC to enhance Beijing's efforts to promote the renminbi's international use, facilitating faster and cheaper transactions for overseas companies. Mastercard Partners with Infosys to Scale Cross-Border Payments: On August 28, 2025, Infosys announced a strategic partnership with Mastercard aimed at revolutionizing cross-border payments. The collaboration will enable financial institutions to gain enhanced access to Mastercard Move, Mastercard’s suite of money movement services. This initiative is expected to scale and streamline global payment processes, offering improved efficiency and broader capabilities for institutions engaging in international transactions. Visual Aids Cross-Border Payments Strategic Initiative This diagram illustrates the complexities of correspondent banking and the challenges associated with cross-border payments, including multiple intermediaries, increased fees, and delayed fund availability. Next-Generation Monetary and Financial System This visual representation showcases how a unified ledger and tokenization can streamline cross-border payments, integrating payment instructions and account updates into a single transaction. Central Bank Digital Currencies and Cross-Border Payments This infographic highlights the potential of CBDCs to enhance cross-border payments by reducing inefficiencies, lowering costs, and promoting financial inclusion, particularly in the Middle East.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
JPY & JPY CROSSES FOR 22nd to 26th SEP 2025Econ Data (Week of 22nd Sep - 26th Sep 2025) Monday, 22nd Sep: AUD: RBA Governor Speaks. Tuesday, 23rd Sep: GBP: BOE Governor Speaks. EUR, GBP, USD: Flash PMI. USD: Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday, 24th Sep: USD: Fed Chairman Speaks. AUD: CPI. EUR: German IFO Business Climate. USD: New Home Sales. Thursday, 25th Sep: CHF: Interest Rate Announcement & Press Conference. USD: GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Existing Home Sales. Friday, 26th Sep: CAD: GDP. USD: Core PCE Price Index, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Magnified View (Yearly/Monthly Time Frame) USDJPY: In a congestion phase with limited upside on the Quarterly & Yearly timeframes. Price target high for 2025: 15880. Monthly congestion confirmed with a high at 15085. Expect consolidation with a downside move for the rest of the year. Other JPY Crosses: EURJPY: Limited upside on the monthly timeframe; potential failure at 17380 (July high), with the current high at 17450. GBPJPY: Probable top at 20125 on the weekly timeframe, which could also be the yearly high; monthly failure likely. CHFJPY: At multi-year highs but may fail to break 18605 (July high), with the current high at 18720. AUDJPY: In congestion on the Quarterly & Monthly timeframes; probable weekly high at 9850. NZDJPY: In congestion on the Quarterly & Monthly timeframes; probable monthly high at 8910 (July). CADJPY: In congestion on the Quarterly & Monthly timeframes; probable high at 10895. SGDJPY: In congestion on the Quarterly & Monthly timeframes; probable weekly high at 11630. Macro View (Weekly/Daily) USDJPY Caught in a congestion zone on the Weekly & Daily timeframes, trading within 14550/14915. Expect choppy and range-bound trading until a breakout occurs. Bias: Bearish. JPY strength against most crosses suggests limited upside for USDJPY, with potential for a breakdown in the coming days. Resistance Levels: 14925-75/15050-80 are key resistance zones, likely to hold in the near term. Timing: Highs are expected to be capped at 14880/14920 in the coming days, with potential for a move lower towards 14650/14550 if 14720/14680 breaks. Long Range (LR) Daily: Suggests highs may be capped at 14880/14920. Month-End Outlook: Cautiously bearish as long as 15050-85 holds. Micro View (Hourly/15M) Current Trend: A corrective move down on the hourly timeframe may have started at 14920/14880. The 15M wave is synchronized with the downward move, projecting a move towards 14620/14550 before the next upward wave. Immediate Resistance: 14880/14930 is expected to hold. Hourly Moving Averages: Mixed signals suggest a choppy and quiet session until a breakout occurs. Alternative Scenario: If 15050-85 breaks, expect a retest of the highs, invalidating the bearish view. Trading Ideas Sell Near 14880-14920: Stop Loss: Above 14990. Target: 14620/14550. Exit Strategy: If the target is hit, exit the trade. Hold Shorts: Maintain short positions on USDJPY and consider trading JPY crosses, as they are all pointing downward. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 14620/14550. Resistance: 14880/14920, 14925-75, 15050-80. Overall Strategy: Bearish Bias: Stay bearish as long as 15050-85 holds. Range Trading: Expect choppy trading within the 14550/14915 range until a breakout occurs. Risk Management: Use tight stop losses and manage positions carefully, especially if key levels are breached. Econ Data Impact: Monitor speeches from the Fed Chairman and BOE Governor, as well as US GDP and PCE data, for potential market-moving events. Conclusion: USDJPY is in a congestion phase with limited upside potential. The bearish outlook remains intact as long as key resistance levels hold. Focus on selling near resistance zones and manage risk effectively. Keep an eye on JPY crosses, as they are also showing bearish tendencies.
Short
by RAJOOC
USD/JPY Scenarios: 1 to 3 Month HorizonDear Friends in Trading, All targets = Liquidity Pools PIVOT @ 147.440 🟨Base Case (Most Likely) 1) Probability weighted @ 50% 2) Range: 146.00 – 149.50 Drivers: Fed has already cut once, further cuts priced in gradually (not aggressive). BOJ keeps rates unchanged at 0.5% but signals gradual normalization, which offsets Fed easing. Yield differentials narrow modestly → pair consolidates. Technical view: Market respects resistance around 149.5–150, and dips find support around 146. Narrative: Market stabilizes after months of volatility; USD/JPY trades sideways in a “comfort zone.” 🟢 Bullish USD/JPY (Stronger Dollar) 1) Probability weighted @ 30% 2) Range: 149.50 – 152.50 Triggers: Fed delays or downplays future rate cuts (data stays firm, inflation sticky). BOJ holds steady and avoids additional tightening hints → yield spreads widen again. Risk-on sentiment supports carry trades (selling yen to fund higher-yield bets). Technical view: A clean break above 150 could invite momentum buying up toward 152+. Narrative: Dollar regains traction as U.S. economy looks resilient, BOJ appears cautious. 🔴 Bearish USD/JPY (Stronger Yen) 1) Probability weighted @ 20% 2) Range: 142.00 – 146.00 Triggers: BOJ signals or executes another rate hike (beyond 0.5%), citing persistent inflation. Fed cuts more aggressively than markets expect. Geopolitical risk or global slowdown sparks safe haven flows into JPY. Technical view: Breaking below 146 could accelerate losses toward 143–142. Narrative: Policy divergence narrows sharply; yen strengthens on both fundamentals and sentiment. 🎯 Quick Take - 🟨Base case: Sideways, capped by 150. 🟢Bullish risk: Breakout if Fed stays hawkish. 🔴Bearish risk: Sudden yen surge if BOJ turns hawkish or risk sentiment sours. I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight. Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
by ANROC
2
USD/JPY: Is the Bear Coming Back?Hello traders, USD/JPY is still under the influence of the latest news from the BOJ . The Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.5% but started selling ETFs and REITs, showing they are gradually moving away from their ultra-loose policy. This is a hawkish signal that supports the yen. In addition, 2 out of 9 BOJ board members even wanted to raise rates to 0.75% , increasing market expectations that the JPY will become even stronger in the near future. Meanwhile, the Fed is in a rate-cutting cycle , leaving the USD weaker against the JPY. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has just touched the resistance area around 148.200 and bounced down. The downtrend line continues to act as pressure. The market structure is also forming lower highs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The 148.200 level is a strong supply zone, difficult to break without unexpected news. The preferred scenario is to look for sell entries around the resistance zone , with a near-term target at 147.000 and a further target at 146.000 – a key support level overlapping with the demand zone. A stop-loss should be placed above 148.500 to avoid false breakouts. Overall, both fundamentals and technicals support a bearish move for USD/JPY . The dominant trend is bearish, and the effective strategy is to wait for pullbacks to sell with the trend.
Short
by ShadowReaper_
1
USDJPY Ultimate Price Action Analysis:📊 USDJPY Forecast 🔮💹 (147.961) Closing 20th Sept 2025 | 12:50 AM UTC+4 🕵️‍♂️ Market Snapshot USDJPY closed at 147.961, showing mixed signals as bulls attempt to hold ground near critical levels while sellers eye a potential reversal. ⚖️ 🏦 Technical Framework 🔹 Chart Patterns 📈 Possible Elliott Wave 5th leg exhaustion near 148.5–149.2. 🌀 Harmonic PRZ forming around 149.0. 🏯 Ichimoku Cloud shows resistance overhead, baseline support at 147.3. ⚠️ Watch for bull trap if price fails 148.2. 🔹 Indicators RSI 📊: 62 → mild overbought. BB 🔔: Price hugging upper band = volatility spike. MA Cross 🔀: Golden cross intact, but momentum flattening. VWAP ⚡: Anchored VWAP = 147.6 → strong pivot. 🕐 Intraday Outlook Buy Zone 💵: 147.40 – 147.60 (support + VWAP confluence). Sell Zone 💸: 148.50 – 148.80 (resistance + harmonic). Take Profit 🎯: Longs → 148.20 / 148.50 Shorts → 147.10 / 146.80 Stop Loss 🛑: Longs < 147.20 Shorts > 149.00 ⏳ Swing Trading Outlook Bullish Scenario 🐂: Break & close above 149.20 → next target 150.50 – 151.20. Bearish Scenario 🐻: Close below 146.80 → correction toward 145.40 – 144.70. 📌 Key Levels Resistance: 148.20 / 148.80 / 149.20 Support: 147.40 / 146.80 / 145.40 🎯 Strategy Summary ✅ Intraday: Buy dips near support, sell rallies near resistance. ✅ Swing: Watch 149.20 breakout or 146.80 breakdown for larger moves. ⚡ Volatility expected → trade with strict risk control. 🌍 Market Context Fed & BoJ policy divergence remains key. Geopolitical jitters in Asia could trigger safe-haven flows → boosting JPY demand. 🔥 Trade Smart | Manage Risk | Respect Levels 🔥 For individuals seeking to enhance their trading abilities based on the analyses provided, I recommend exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. (Website: shunya dot trade) I would appreciate your feedback on this analysis, as it will serve as a valuable resource for future endeavors. Sincerely, Shunya.Trade Website: shunya dot trade ⚠️Disclaimer: This post is intended solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed herein are derived from technical analysis and are shared for informational purposes only. The stock market inherently carries risks, including the potential for capital loss. Therefore, readers are strongly advised to exercise prudent judgment before making any investment decisions. We assume no liability for any actions taken based on this content. For personalized guidance, it is recommended to consult a certified financial advisor.
by sunya
usdjpy 4hTrading Perspectives for the Upcoming Week In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and outlooks. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a significant support/resistance zone near the current asset price. The market’s reaction to or break of this level will determine the future price trend up to the next specified levels. Important Note: The purpose of these trading perspectives is to examine key price levels and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
by Deltafx_Broker