Get started

USDT BTC PERPETUAL

No trades
See on Supercharts
OverviewNewsIdeasDiscussionsTechnicalsSeasonalsMarkets

USDTBTC.P trade ideas

Lingrid | BTCUSDT Round Number Rejection Pullback ExpectedThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea . BINANCE:BTCUSDT is facing rejection near the 125,000 resistance after reaching a new all-time high. Price action shows exhaustion at the top boundary of the rising channel with early signs of retracement. A close below 123,000 may confirm a deeper correction toward the 120,000 support zone. Momentum suggests sellers are attempting to take control following the extended bullish rally. ⚠️ Risks: A sustained move above 125,000 could invalidate the bearish setup. Strong institutional buying or ETF inflows may renew bullish momentum. Softer U.S. economic data could weaken the dollar, supporting crypto recovery. If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Short
by Lingrid
5
BTCUSDT Analysis: Breakout and Potential Growth👋Hello everyone, what do you think about BINANCE:BTCUSDT ? Based on technical analysis, BTCUSDT has made a strong breakout from the descending channel. Currently, Bitcoin is facing strong resistance near the 124,000 USD level. After reaching the peak, the price may correct back to Fibonacci support levels (0.5 - 0.618) before potentially continuing its upward movement. The next target for BTC is to reach 130,000 USD if the bullish trend continues. The key to achieving this target is for the newly established support to hold, along with a clear confirmation of a candle close above the current resistance zone. As for me, I remain optimistic. What about you? 💬What do you think about the trend of BTCUSDT? Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments below. Good luck!
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
13
BTC: New ATH or One More Correction? The 78.6% Level DecidesIn every great story, there is a final challenge before the ultimate prize. For Bitcoin, that moment is now. The price is approaching the last major line of resistance that stands between the current price and a new All-Time High. This analysis breaks down that critical level and the tactical, counter-trend opportunity it may present. Bitcoin is continuing its uptrend after the correction to the 61.8% Fib level, which I showed in the trade idea " Bitcoin's Tumble: How Deep Does the Rabbit Hole Go? ", and is now approaching a very important level that will determine whether a new ATH will be formed or if the asset will correct further before that. This is the 78.6% Fib level - the last resistance level from which a short can be considered. Conditions for the Short Setup: 🔑 POI: 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level 🔎 ENTRY CONDITIONS: The price must find acceptance below the 78.6% level. Since this is a daily structure, this may require daily candle bodies closing below the level for confirmation. 🎯 MINIMUM TARGET: Bullish Daily Order Block below. ❌ INVALIDATION: A confirmed break and hold above the 78.6% level. A break here would signal a probable move to a new ATH. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇 P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you found this analysis helpful, support it with a Boost! 🚀 Have a question or your own view on this idea? Share it in the comments. 💬 ► Follow me on TradingView for timely updates on THIS idea (entry, targets & live trade management) and not to miss my next detailed breakdown. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Short
by TheWhaleSM
33
BTCUSDT Bullish Momentum: Will It Break Through Resistance?👋Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on the current trend of BINANCE:BTCUSDT ? Bitcoin has recently experienced a strong surge, breaking through key resistance levels and pushing toward new highs. The main drivers of this bullish move are the expectations of a Fed rate cut and the increasing involvement of institutional players in the cryptocurrency market. As of writing, BTCUSDT is trading around $122,000, which is a strong resistance zone. At this level, the price may experience a slight pullback to the Fibonacci support levels at 0.618 – 0.5, which could present a good opportunity for the next buying entry. If these levels hold, we could witness a strong breakout above the resistance zone. With the market structure remaining highly positive, Bitcoin’s uptrend could continue and push to even higher levels. Do you agree with this view?
Long
by Kevinn_Nguyen
11
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on BITCOIN? Bitcoin reached a new all-time high earlier this week but failed to hold above it, leading to a rejection and a short-term corrective phase. The price is now undergoing a healthy pullback, and we expect the correction to continue until the previous breakout zone is retested. Once this pullback completes, Bitcoin may resume its upward momentum and attempt to form a new higher high. The broader trend remains bullish, and this correction is viewed as a buying opportunity within the ongoing uptrend. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
5
Why MY “Big Dump” THESIS STILL STANDS. BITCOIN WILL BLEEDHappy Monday traders, I’ve reviewed the latest data again and nothing has changed my view. The structure still looks weak underneath the surface and the setup for downside remains strong. Summary: • Price rising → Market pushing higher, looks strong on the surface. • Stablecoin OI increasing → New leveraged perp positions opening. Speculative money is driving the move, not real buyers. • Coin-margined OI dropped, then slightly increased → Shorts were closed during the breakout, and now new shorts are opening near the highs. • Spot CVD flat or slightly negative → Real demand is still missing. Spot traders aren’t supporting this move. • Stablecoin CVD rising → Perp traders are aggressively buying, lifting price artificially. • Long/Short ratio falling (2.05 → 1.02) → Fewer longs and more shorts entering. Shorts are fading strength while price keeps rising. • Price up + OI up + Spot CVD flat → Buyers are being absorbed by new shorts. This is distribution forming at the highs. • Possible short-term move to 126K → Could sweep weekend highs during RTH for liquidity before a potential reversal. • If Spot CVD stays flat while OI rises on that move → That would likely be the final squeeze before a deeper dump. ------------------- 1️⃣ The same leverage-driven structure The breakout on September 25 looked impressive, but it was built on leverage rather than real spot demand. Stablecoin OI (aggregated) increased from 257K → 285K contracts (+10.9%) This shows fresh leveraged exposure coming from perps, not genuine buyers Coin-margined OI dropped from 7.58B → 7.29B during that breakout as shorts were closed out It has now started to rise slightly again at current prices, meaning new coin-margined positions are opening near the highs, most likely shorts fading strength 2️⃣ Spot demand is still missing Spot CVD moved from -18.38K → -16.44K (about +10.5%), while futures OI rose almost the same amount. That tells you everything: the breakout was driven by futures leverage, not real spot buying. Everyone’s renting Ferraris (perp longs), but no one is actually buying one (spot BTC). Once the rental stops, the cars vanish and prices drop. 3️⃣ The long-short ratio collapse On September 25, the aggregated long/short ratio (Binance + Bybit) was 2.05, meaning twice as many longs as shorts. Today it sits near 1.02, even though price is higher. Early breakout longs have been closed or liquidated New traders entering the market are mostly shorts OI is still rising, showing new short positioning, not liquidation exits Stablecoin-perp CVD is still climbing, meaning buyers are pushing price up but every uptick is met with new short liquidity This is a classic case of perps pushing while smarter money fades. 4️⃣ Why I still think Bitcoin will bleed This looks like distribution, not accumulation. Perp traders are driving the move Spot buyers still haven’t shown up Shorts are building into the highs That’s not a healthy uptrend. It’s a top-heavy market waiting for the bid to dry up. When it does, the unwind will likely be quick as leveraged positions are forced out. Think of it like a rubber band. The more it’s stretched by leverage without real demand, the harder it snaps when buying power runs out. ⚖️ TL;DR Stablecoin OI +10.9% → leverage driven Coin OI fell, then rose slightly → shorts covered, new shorts forming near highs Spot CVD flat → no real buyers Long/Short ratio 2.05 → 1.02 → longs out, shorts in The move up was built on leverage, not ownership. Spot hasn’t confirmed, and shorts are stacking into strength. 🎯 Short-term note There’s a chance we see one more push toward the 126K region during RTH to sweep the weekend highs before rolling over. If that happens with spot CVD still flat and OI climbing, it’ll likely be the final liquidity grab before a larger move down. Until spot CVD turns positive and OI stabilizes, my view remains the same: Bitcoin will bleed. Interested in the Order Flow data that I used for this Analysis? Check it out here => ibb.co
Short
by ThetaNomad
7
BTC Bulls Eye $148K–$160K Targets as IHS Pattern Takes ShapeBitcoin faced rejection from a strong supply zone currently acting as the neckline of a potential Inverse Head & Shoulders (IHS) structure. The right shoulder appears to be forming within the $113K–$116K range, and this zone will be crucial in determining the next major directional move. If the $113K–$116K support range manages to hold the price, we could see a bullish rebound back toward the neckline region around $126K–$127K, setting the stage for a breakout continuation. A successful neckline breakout could propel price toward the primary setup target near $148K, with an extended blow-off top possibly reaching $160K. However, this bullish formation becomes invalidated if price closes below $107K, which would negate the IHS structure and reopen lower retracement possibilities. Do you agree with this setup? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
by weslad
4
06/10/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $125,735.08 Last weeks low: $111,559.20 Midpoint: $118,6547.14 New All Time High for Bitcoin in the first week of "Uptober", really impressive strength since flipping $117,500. BTC still finds itself within a range between ATH and $108,000 but with such strength on the bounce from range lows, could we see price discovery going into the last leg of the year? From a macro perspective month/quarter end is now over and done with, banks have completed their window dressing/de-risking and we can expect liquidity to flow back into the risk markets. Rate cut cycle continues, M2 Global money supply at ATH with seemingly no plans to stop in the near future. For now I am still treating trading BTC as it is in a range until we get price acceptance above $125,000. If there is a breakout above and a rally altcoins should follow. In terms of news releases this week because of the US Government shutdown there is a disruption on data releases but overall nothing of great importance is disrupted. Good luck this week everybody!
by ProR35
3
BITCOIN’S FINAL TRAP – THE SENTIMENT SWITCH IS COMING FASTIn my last BTC post I said a dump was likely based on data, and that thesis still stands. If anything, it’s even stronger now. . On 13 August, CME made a high at 123,590. That high was weak, no excess, flat TPO top, unfinished auction. Binance topped at 124,474, Coinbase at 124,522. CME opened with a gap down, leaving that poor high unrepaired with unfinished business and clean liquidity sitting above. From 26 September, BTC started grinding up. I expected a run of the 18 September high and a reversal around 118–119K, but price extended the move to the 1.618 extension. See my last analysis. Structure was weak, spot CVD flat, futures CVD ripping, open interest climbing. That shows perps were driving it, not real spot demand. This week CME finally cleaned it up. CME ripped through 125,025, taking out the August high at 123,590. That level matched the old highs on Binance and Coinbase almost perfectly. CME swept the old poor high left behind by spot and perps, completing the auction. This is typical CME behavior, it hunts untested reference points during RTH and often reverses right after. Flow data confirms the setup: Spot CVD down means real buyers not following. Stablecoin CVD pushing up means overleveraged longs chasing. Coin-margined CVD rolling means profit taking or hedge flow. Open interest flat at the top means trapped longs with no squeeze left. The move looks like a leveraged markup driven by perps, cleaned up by CME liquidity, and now hanging on air. CME repaired the August inefficiency, swept the prior spot high, and left another weak high with no excess, a textbook sign of distribution. There’s still a chance we see one more SFP around 126K before momentum flips, but unless spot demand picks up aggressively, that should be the final liquidity grab. My targets are 104K and 99K if 104K fails to hold, with potential for an even deeper drop beyond that level.
Short
by ThetaNomad
6
What’s a Wedge Pattern?What's up traders! 👋 Wedge patterns are a powerful tool in technical analysis that can give you a heads-up about potential price moves. Whether you’re spotting a falling wedge or a rising wedge, these formations can reveal key signals about market direction. What’s a Wedge Pattern? A wedge pattern forms when price moves between two converging trendlines, creating a shape resembling a triangle. These patterns usually appear when the market is slowing down or consolidating before making a bigger move. Wedges can slope upwards or downwards, and the key difference lies in whether the trendlines are converging in an uptrend (rising wedge) or a downtrend (falling wedge). Falling Wedge Pattern: Bullish Reversal 📈 The falling wedge pattern is a bullish reversal signal. This formation occurs when price moves between two downward-sloping trendlines, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows. The downward momentum weakens as the trendlines converge, indicating that sellers are losing strength, which sets up the potential for a bullish breakout. How to Trade the Falling Wedge Entry: Wait for the price to break above the upper trendline. This is your signal to enter long. Target: Measure the height of the wedge at its widest point and project it upwards from the breakout point. Stop Loss: Place it just below the most recent swing low to protect your position if the breakout doesn’t happen. The chart illustrates a falling wedge pattern on the Bitcoin / Tether US pair with a 1-hour timeframe. Price action is contained within two converging downward-sloping trendlines, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. The breakout above the upper trendline signals a bullish reversal, and the subsequent uptick in price confirms the shift in momentum. In rare cases, a breakout failure can lead to a bearish falling wedge pattern, but this scenario is less common. Keep an eye on the price action for signs of continued upward momentum. Rising Wedge Pattern: Bearish Reversal 📉 The rising wedge pattern is a bearish reversal signal. This formation happens when price moves between two upward-sloping trendlines, creating higher highs and higher lows. The rising wedge indicates weakening buying pressure and a potential reversal to the downside. How to Trade the Rising Wedge Entry: Enter a short position once the price breaks below the lower trendline. Target: Measure the height of the wedge and project it downward from the breakout point. Stop Loss: Set it just above the most recent swing high to protect your trade. Wedge Chart Pattern Trading: Key Tips ⚡ Context is everything when trading wedge patterns. If a bullish wedge pattern appears in an uptrend, it’s more likely to break to the upside. If a bearish wedge shows up in a downtrend, expect a breakdown. Here are a few quick tips to improve your wedge trading pattern game: Trendlines are key: Ensure your trendlines are drawn accurately. Properly drawn trendlines lead to better trades. Breakout confirmation: Confirm breakouts with increased volume and, ideally, by checking for confluence with other indicators like RSI or MACD. A breakout without volume is often a false signal. Risk management: Always use a stop loss to protect your capital. Use other indicators: Wedge patterns work well with additional tools such as RSI, moving averages, or MACD. The more confluence, the better! Final Thoughts 🏁 Wedge patterns, whether it’s the falling wedge pattern signaling a bullish reversal or the rising wedge pattern trading indicating bearish pressure, are some of the most reliable chart formations out there. But remember: no setup is perfect, so always use a stop loss and never rely on a single indicator. With practice, you’ll get better at spotting these setups and timing your entries and exits like a pro. Happy trading, and may the charts be in your favor! 💰📊
Education
by WhiteBIT
6
Bulls are on the rise, with the MACD, SMA, and EMA all bullish! Let's not beat around the bush; this daily chart is a stark illustration. After breaking through resistance near $110,000, Bitcoin surged to $125,725 on increasing volume, demonstrating textbook breakout behavior. But just when bulls thought it was safe to celebrate, smaller candlesticks—tiny signals of uncertainty—slowly appeared like unwelcome party guests. With support at $120,000 and $116,000, bottom-fishing opportunities could emerge between $120,000 and $122,000. But let's be clear: if Bitcoin fails at $125,725 again, it could call the bears out again. If Bitcoin breaks through $125,725, the target will be $130,000. All technical indicators point to a bullish outlook, and any dip near $120,000 could simply be the market's "final announcement" that Bitcoin is ready to take off. However, a failure to break above $125,000 and a break below $120,000 could signal a reversal. With momentum peaking and several oscillators flashing warning signs, a breakdown of $120,000 support would be a good time to sell.
Long
by PalmerRobert6064
3
BTC BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS?📰 BREAKING NEWS OR BREAKING CHARTS? TRUMP IMPOSES TARIFFS, CAUSING A BITCOIN BLOODBATH — $20,000 DRAWDOWN IN 2 HOURS! Bitcoin was sitting comfortably at $121,000, before a sudden macro shock — triggered by newly imposed U.S. tariffs — sent prices spiraling down to $100,000 in a matter of hours. Bulls were liquidated. Bears rejoiced. Now, the market stands at a crossroads: will this become a major dump continuation, or the foundation for a secret pump? Chart Overview & Structure On the high timeframe, BTC continues to trade within a rising wedge formation, with price now showing a significant wick rejection from the upper boundary. This move suggests a potential shift in market structure — a moment that’s likely to shake inexperienced traders. The chart reveals a clear supply and demand structure: Supply Zone: $123,452 – $130,000 D emand Zone: $98,826 – $101,400 These zones define the battlefield between bulls and bears. In addition, eight psychological levels dominate the chart — $100K, $105K, $110K, $115K, $120K, $125K, and $130K — each representing potential liquidity clusters and reaction points. Adding to the complexity, we can see a golden pocket (0.618–0.65 retracement) forming around $106,000, perfectly aligning with prior swing lows and the midpoint of a large Fair Value Gap (FVG) overhead. This zone could serve as a reversal or continuation point depending on whether price can reclaim and hold above the major support trendline. Technical Insights The market has now tapped the rising wedge resistance three times, with the last tap forming a wick above $125K, triggering liquidity before the sharp collapse. This aligns with the classical exhaustion behavior of wedges. Moreover, a potential Head and Shoulders structure is beginning to emerge, with the right shoulder aligning near $115K — a confluence area that may attract strong bearish attention. For now, price is testing the lower support trendline — a crucial pivot area for determining whether BTC continues to break down toward demand or consolidates for recovery. This structure creates a make-or-break zone that will define the next macro leg. Bullish Scenario Despite the panic, this could be a classic liquidity flush — a “flush candle” event designed to wipe out leveraged long positions before a larger move upward. If BTC can maintain structure above the major support line and close above $106K–$110K, it opens the door for a relief rally. A reclaim of $115K would confirm buyer strength. Sustained momentum could push BTC back into the $120K–$125K range to retest the broken supply zone. Breaking through $125K would invalidate the bearish wedge, potentially igniting a run toward $130K+ and even new highs in “Pump-tober.” In this scenario, the deep liquidation event becomes fuel for a massive short squeeze, driving momentum and reigniting bullish sentiment across crypto markets. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if BTC fails to hold above $106K or decisively breaks below the demand zone at $98K, it would confirm a rising wedge breakdown. Below $100K, momentum could accelerate toward $95K–$92K — the next liquidity pools and volume gaps. The Head and Shoulders completion would confirm the bearish reversal structure, further strengthening the downside case. Macro sentiment, fueled by geopolitical and policy fears, could add weight to the bearish outlook. A rejection from $115K without sustained reclaim would also reinforce the bearish continuation pattern, with every psychological level above turning into resistance. Summary Bitcoin is at an inflection point — the $100K–$115K range will define the next macro move. The recent wick and structure breakdown hint at weakness, but the flush candle and liquidity sweep also suggest that a bullish rebound could be on the horizon. In short: Above $115K → Bullish continuation possible. Below $100K → Bearish expansion likely. With volatility at its peak, traders should expect massive liquidity hunts, fakeouts, and emotional traps on both sides. Whether this becomes the start of a macro correction or a secret accumulation phase before a major pump — the next few daily closes will tell the story.
by King_BennyBag
10
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #191👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let’s get into Bitcoin analysis. The market is still in a ranging phase, so let’s take a look at today’s triggers together. ⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe In this timeframe, Bitcoin is still consolidating and has formed a new range high around 124,094. ✔️ Right now, the price is near the bottom of the range box it has created and is on the verge of breaking below it. ✨ If the bottom of the box breaks, price could move toward lower levels. 📊 If selling volume continues to increase, the downward move could extend further, and Bitcoin may correct to even deeper zones. 🎲 However, if this move turns out to be a fake breakdown, and we see reversal structures such as a V-pattern, we could look for a long trigger. 🔑 I still don’t see Bitcoin as being in a downtrend. In my view, every correction the market makes is still healthy and supports the continuation of the broader bullish structure, helping maintain the strength of upcoming legs. ⭐ For now, since momentum has turned bearish on the lower cycles, I don’t have any new triggers to give based on my strategy. In this phase of the market, I prefer to wait until price builds more structure. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Long
by tradecitypro
6
#BITCOIN SUNDAY ANALYSIS $BTC the daily and monthly charts are#BITCOIN SUNDAY ANALYSIS CRYPTOCAP:BTC the daily and monthly charts are now confirming that view. Bitcoin is trading around 123K, right at the upper resistance zone that has triggered every major correction since 2018. 🔸 Weekly Chart View: BTC has once again touched the long-term trendline that has acted as a selling for every bull cycle top (2018, 2021, and now 2025). Each red arrow marks a rejection, and this latest test looks no different. Until we see a clean weekly close above this trendline, the risk of another major pullback remains high. 🔸 Daily Chart View: On the lower timeframe, price is trading inside the green supply box between 110K and 125K, the same area that rejected BTC multiple times this year. Structure remains weak, holding below 125K still high chances of big correction. And it’s not just the trendline or resistance we’re also seeing typical top signals: overly bullish headlines, extreme optimism, and calls for “1M BTC soon.” These usually show up near market tops, not bottoms. 📉 My Trade: I’m still holding my shorts. All limit orders are filled and my average entry is around 122K. I’ll share updates if I make any changes or close the position. 📌 Downside Targets: 105K → 100K → 95K → 90K
Short
by CryptoSkullSignal
3
Risk On/Off: How Global Correlations Tell You Money Flow🔵 Risk On / Risk Off: How Global Correlations Tell You Where Money Is Flowing Difficulty: 🐳🐳🐳🐋🐋 (Intermediate+) This article is for traders who want to understand how global capital flow affects market behavior — from equities and crypto to gold and bonds. Learning to read “Risk On” and “Risk Off” regimes helps you anticipate big shifts before they hit your chart. 🔵 INTRODUCTION Markets are not independent islands — they are connected by one universal force: liquidity flow . When investors feel confident, they move capital into riskier assets like stocks and crypto — this is called Risk On . When fear dominates, capital flows back into safety — bonds, gold, and the U.S. dollar — known as Risk Off . Recognizing this rotation allows traders to align their bias with the flow of global capital rather than fighting it. 🔵 WHAT IS “RISK ON” Risk On is a market environment where investors seek higher returns, volatility is subdued, and capital flows into assets with greater reward potential. Typical Risk-On behavior: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and other equities trend higher Bitcoin and crypto assets outperform traditional markets U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakens as money moves abroad Bond yields rise moderately as investors leave safe assets Gold often consolidates or declines In simple terms: Money chases opportunity. 🔵 WHAT IS “RISK OFF” Risk Off describes defensive conditions — fear rises, volatility expands, and liquidity seeks safety. Typical Risk-Off behavior: S&P 500 and risk assets decline Bitcoin and altcoins drop sharply DXY strengthens as investors move into USD Bond yields fall as money enters treasuries Gold rallies as a safe-haven hedge In simple terms: Money runs to safety. 🔵 HOW TO DETECT RISK SHIFTS Market regimes don’t flip instantly — they rotate through correlated behavior. To identify the shift between Risk On and Risk Off, monitor key macro instruments together: DXY (Dollar Index): Rising DXY = Risk Off sentiment, Falling DXY = Risk On. SPX / NASDAQ: Strong uptrends = Risk On, persistent weakness = Risk Off. BTC vs DXY: Inverse correlation; BTC strength with DXY weakness = liquidity expansion. Bond Yields (US10Y): Rising = optimism, Falling = risk aversion. VIX Index: Below 15 = complacent Risk On, Above 25 = fearful Risk Off. 🔵 THE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY CYCLE Liquidity always moves in phases — expansion, acceleration, contraction, and reset. Phase 1 – Liquidity Expansion: Central banks inject liquidity → Risk On begins. Phase 2 – Overextension: Assets rally strongly, leverage increases, volatility stays low. Phase 3 – Liquidity Contraction: Monetary tightening or policy shocks trigger Risk Off. Phase 4 – Repricing & Reset: Markets bottom as new liquidity returns. Understanding this rhythm helps traders avoid confusion when markets seem “irrational” — because they’re not, they’re simply rotating through the liquidity cycle. 🔵 USING RISK ON/OFF IN TRADING Even technical traders benefit from recognizing global risk regimes. By aligning with the dominant liquidity direction, setups gain higher probability. Crypto traders: Use SPX, DXY, and VIX correlations to confirm momentum. Stock traders: Track gold and yields to gauge investor confidence. Forex traders: Trade USD pairs according to global sentiment. Swing traders: Filter trade bias by checking the current global regime. Tip: When correlations align (e.g., DXY up, SPX down, BTC down), expect trend continuation. When they diverge, volatility or reversals are likely. 🔵 ADVANCED TOOLS TO WATCH Global Liquidity Index: Track combined balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBC. Stablecoin Supply (Crypto): Expanding supply = liquidity entering market. Yield Curve (10Y–2Y spread): Falling = caution, Rising = recovery. Funding Rates: Confirm risk sentiment via leverage buildup. 🔵 CONCLUSION All markets are connected through liquidity. Risk On and Risk Off regimes describe how that liquidity rotates between return and safety. By tracking global correlations — equities, bonds, gold, DXY, and crypto — traders gain a powerful macro filter to stay on the right side of momentum. Liquidity creates direction. Correlation confirms conviction. If you learn to read the global flow, your technical analysis will finally make sense in the bigger picture. Do you track global correlations in your analysis? What’s your favorite Risk-On or Risk-Off indicator?
Education
by BigBeluga
2
BTC/USDT | BTC Correction in Play – Will $117K Hold the Line?By analyzing the Bitcoin (BTC) chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after rallying up to $126,000 and setting a new all-time high (ATH), the price faced a sharp correction and is now trading around $119,000. This drop could extend further toward $117,000, which is a key level to watch closely. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this zone, we could see the next bullish wave begin. Otherwise, the next major demand zones are at $115,000, $113,500, and $112,120. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
4
Using DXY to Predict Manipulation on BitcoinIn this post it’s important to view and relate to the linked, related idea called “DXY - Major Breakdown of Ascending Channel” I’ll keep this short and to the point since we are actively in the war zone now. 1. Identify major patterns or structure shifts on DXY. For 8 years I’ve used these same ascending channel supports on DXY and it’s made very clear this is the way it trades, as we can duplicate the line angle and move it near infinitely to any area and see how price respects it. 2. Identify major DXY events in relation to the DXY pivot. In this case, we are witnessing a bearish retest of a major bearish signal. 3. Understand what it all means. DXY falling / correcting for 4-7 years translates to BULL MARKET of the same duration on stocks, equities, and securities. Now you may be thinking - “Okay but that means, Bitcoin will go up then?” WRONG The reason is, Bitcoin and Crypto is a manipulated game and it’s all rigged and intentional. What does this really mean then? 4. If we will see a natural bullish trend on Bitcoin for the next 4-7 years, that means the market makers want their money back. Since Bitcoin has been only moving up since late 2022, this has set up a massive chain reaction of long stop losses / sell orders, paving a path to these lower zones on my BTC chart. What this should tell you is - FLASH CRASH COMING. Manipulated crash before the true bull run. Now you may be wondering - “No way, the world would have to see an apocalypse for 8,000 to be hit” WRONG Stop loss orders are in place already as a natural consequence of traders decisions over the last 3+ years. These are sell orders. Once these sell orders start filling, bitcoin will see an automatic wick down to these low levels. No active selling is required, and therefor no black swan required. Now - If DXY was retesting a bullish pattern, I’d be longing as that signals extended bear market. And rest assured - THIS MARKET IS ALL MANIPULATION. We can use DXY to predict the trigger of it all. Happy trading. - DD
Short
by DickDandy
4
BITCOIN AND CRYPTO RUG PULL, HERE IS THE REAL REASON WHY!In the 1-hour time period, all altcoins and Bitcoin crashed on Friday afternoon/night! The real reason behind this crash is in this article. The vast majority of traders on the futures market got liquidated with a very low leverage of 2x or more. If you still believe in Democrats and their controlled opposition Republicans, this article may open your eyes. So what happened? You probably already know that the crypto market is completely controlled and manipulated by whales (banks and huge institutions). Not only the price but also the development. If you still believe that Bitcoin is here to bring freedom or that Bitcoin is developed by some geeks and that the banks have no control over Bitcoin, please wake up! It's completely the opposite. Bitcoin is a bank's biggest love, and if you love Bitcoin, you also love the Fed and their money printer and inflation. XRP -62%, DOGE -68%, LINK -63%, ADA -69% Alien in disguise Elon Musk and his favorite DOGE coin dropped by 68% and almost hit a new long-term low since 2022. We have never seen such a crash in the history of this coin, and what is the reason behind this rug pull? Why are all Doge investors and traders disappointed by the performance of this coin? After almost 5 years, the coin was trading today at 0.08 USDT, which is minus 90% from the all-time high peak in 2021! Currently, this coin is trading 75% below the all-time high peak! So what is happening, and why did Elon Musk fail in the eyes of his fans? Pretty much everyone who watched the live rug pull was in disbelief, because their portfolio and all their money were pretty much wiped out. Elon Musk and his reptilian friend Donald Trump are not here to save you, nor to help you. The reason behind this crash is simple—to take away your money while you are cheering at what they do. Twitter used to be a good platform, but after Elon Musk's touch, it turned black, and X is not even a name; it's a letter. What about ADA? Trump (Biden's good friend, btw) a few months ago made a post on the scam social network TruthSocial (btw, they only took the Twitter source code and renamed it to TruthSocial; that's why it's the same) about strategic crypto reserves, including the ADA coin. This is supposed to be bullish, but ADA today just almost hit a new all-time low and wiped all gains made in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. Almost every ADA investor is deeply unsatisfied with the performance of this coin. It's so obvious that the banks started selling and crashed the whole crypto market, forcing all futures traders to quit their long positions. The crypto market is a bank's paradise when it comes to making money; in other words, it's a casino and pump and dump scheme. There is no secret that 99% of crypto investors are at a loss or have experienced a huge loss already. This crypto technology was brought to planet Earth by reptilians and mantoids, so if you think that some human invented this technology, you have been scammed. And this technology is not here to bring freedom, actually it's the opposite. All transactions are monitored on the public blockchain. Every year you see more crypto restrictions; it basically turned into a total control money system, 100x worse than cash or fiat. And that's not all; soon everyone will mine Bitcoin with their physical body instead of computers (see patent WO2020060606A1 - Cryptocurrency system using body activity data). Your mind connected to the hive AI network will not be the best experience on this isolated planet Earth from the rest of the galaxy. It's good that we have democracy, and the most important thing about democracy is freedom of speech. Many, many coins went to ZERO (0.00 USDT) on the spot market, such as IOTX. That's when there were absolutely no buyers (only sellers), and people that sold lost all their money. Please do not look at news or search for what happened to the crypto market. It's more than obvious that the banks wanted to liquidate as many people as possible. And they will do it again and again in the future, so be prepared if you want to stay in this crypto casino game. Write a comment with your altcoin, hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response.
Short
by Xanrox
11