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Natural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Month HighNatural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Month High As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices have risen above $3.600/MMBtu for the first time since mid-July. According to media reports, the rise in gas prices has been driven by: → Weather models forecasting colder conditions, suggesting the heating season may begin earlier than expected; → An EBW Analytics Group note highlighting short-covering activity in the market, which has accelerated the rally (a short squeeze effect). At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited. Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart Three factors might restrict further price growth: → The RSI indicator signals extreme overbought conditions. → Price has moved above the upper boundary of the channel (which has been in place since August), indicating that natural gas may be overvalued. → If we view September’s moves as a 3.065–3.315 range, then the target following the breakout on 29 September should be calculated based on the range height — pointing to 3.645. This target has already been reached. Thus, we could assume that the market is vulnerable to a pullback (for example, towards the median of the blue channel). At the same time, the steep upward trajectory (highlighted in orange) remains intact. Therefore, we may see an attempt at a bullish breakout of the July high near the 3.65 level — although, given the factors mentioned above, such a breakout could well prove to be a false one. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
1
XNG/USD Swing Trade Plan – Entry, Stop, and Target Explained🚀 NATURAL GAS (XNG/USD) – Energies Market Wealth Strategy Map ⚡🔥 (Swing Trade Setup – Thief Layered Style) 📊 Plan ✅ Bullish confirmation spotted with LSMA pullback 🟢 ✅ Thief’s unique layering entry strategy 🎭 — stacking multiple buy limit orders to sneak into the market like a pro. Layered Entry Levels: Buy Limit @ 2.800 🧩 Buy Limit @ 2.850 🧩 Buy Limit @ 2.900 🧩 Buy Limit @ 2.950 🧩 (Feel free to add more layers based on your own risk appetite.) 🛡️ Risk Management Stop Loss (Thief SL): ⚠️ @ 2.750 (Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen – Thief OG’s – this SL is my style. Always set your own SL according to your risk.) 🎯 Target Zone 👮 Police Barricade spotted around 3.300 🚨 Here we have: Strong resistance wall 🧱 Overbought signals 📈 Potential trap zone 👉 Take your profits before the market police catch you! Escape with your bags full 💼💨 (Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen – Thief OG’s – this TP is my style. Always set your own target according to your profit goals.) 🔍 Related Pairs & Correlations FXOPEN:XNGUSD (Natural Gas) – our main thief play 🎭 BLACKBULL:WTI / TVC:UKOIL (Crude Oil & Brent) 🛢️ – often show energy sector momentum correlation ICMARKETS:XBRUSD (Brent Crude) – watch for confirmation of energy strength 🔥 SP:SPX / TVC:DXY (S&P 500 & US Dollar Index) – dollar strength can pressure commodities OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) – safe haven vs energy volatility ⚡ Correlated markets can confirm direction or signal early reversals. Always watch the energy family together for big moves. ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is a thief-style trading strategy created just for fun & educational purposes. Not financial advice. Trade safe, trade smart. #XNGUSD #NaturalGas #Commodities #SwingTrade #EnergyMarkets #LayeringStrategy #TradingCommunity #MarketThief #OGStyle
ICMARKETS:XNGUSDLong
by The-Thief
U.S. Gas prices recoverU.S. Gas prices recover On September 29, natural gas finished higher, reversing earlier losses. Prices had initially been pressured by forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather in the coming weeks, but later gained support from other factors — including data showing stronger export demand for U.S. natural gas. According to EBW Analytics, the above-average warmth is expected to limit natural gas demand through the first half of October. Citing DTN’s temperature forecasts, EBW noted that U.S. storage is projected to grow by about 270 bcf between September 26 and October 16. This means that whenever colder weather eventually arrives, markets will be well supplied, which should help cushion any price spikes. Now natural gas (XNGUSD) are trading at $3.39. In Europe storage facilities across the EU have reached 82.5% capacity ahead of winter, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). On September 28, EU countries injected 206 million cubic meters of gas into storage, while withdrawals declined to 28 million cubic meters. Total storage now stands at 90.9 billion cubic meters — the seventh-highest September level in the historical record. Despite this progress, storage levels remain 6.9 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average and well under last year’s 94.2% mark for the same date. Under European Commission rules, member states must fill storage sites to at least 90% between October 1 and December 1 each year, though up to 10% flexibility is permitted under difficult conditions. These requirements are contributing to upward pressure on European gas prices.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
LNG:Storage Inventories Projected to Increase above 2024 Levels.*Due to the platform's features, the charts are arranged in sequence from left to right, from the first to the ninth chart. Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010 The expiration of the NGV25 contract is occurring near the 15-year median. The subsequent NGX25 contract is currently trading around the 10-day pre-expiration historical average, however, showing elevated volatility. Winter 2026 contract prices remain above the interquartile range.  Current forward curve vs. 2020-2024 The forward curve shape remains stable, increasingly resembling the configurations observed on comparable calendar dates in 2023 and 2024. This pattern is particularly evident in contracts with delivery three years from now or longer, where a pronounced convergence toward historical pricing levels is occurring. Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024 During Week 38 (September 15–21), storage inventories are projected to increase by +76 BCF, reaching 3,509 BCF — already surpassing 2024 storage levels. Meanwhile, injection rates have slowed due to reduced cooling demand and now align with the five-year median pace. Elevated production remains the primary driver behind inventory growth. Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024 Across the continent, the current year’s Week 39 is marked by HDD+CDD values significantly below the 30-year historical average. Forecasts for Week 40 suggest continued weakness in these metrics, which is expected to suppress demand further and may reignite downward pressure on prices. Explanation of the chart: candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots 2024, green 2025, blue prediction 2025. Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region Forecasts across key regions align with the broader trend: HDD+CDD values remain below the 30-year historical average.  Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024 Despite elevated inventory levels and robust production pace, the weekly aggregate supply-demand spread chart for the 2014–2024 period illustrates a key observation: the divergence between demand and supply has widened significantly above the decade-long average and now mirrors the level seen during the same week in 2024. The main factors sustaining strong demand include consistently high LNG exports, steady industrial consumption, and gas-fired power generation. Number of Days for Deliveries from Storages The chart illustrates the number of supply days equated to solely storage deliveries, assuming current consumption levels. In February–March 2025, inventories stood at 10–18 days — it’s comparable to or slightly below the historical average. From May through August, coverage increased to 25–35 days, which remains somewhat below the 10-year range. By September 2025, inventories rose to 33 delivery days, aligning with the median but still below the peaks observed in 2015–2016. This moderate level of storage adequacy creates a structurally tighter market, where even minor production disruptions or modest demand spikes can trigger disproportionate price reactions - especially during the late winter to early spring period.  Weather Anomalies (HDD+CDD) and Fundamental Factors Overall, fundamental factors and weather anomalies are within the expected range, with no systemic deviations, except for isolated declines in LNG exports and Mexican exports, which may temporarily support prices. Anomalies in Power Generation Sources Core generation across most sources has evidently stabilized, with remaining key anomalies observed in coal, hydro, and solar output. This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, analyst of LSE.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by igorisaev
U.S. Natural Gas holds near 10-week highsU.S. Natural Gas holds near 10-week highs U.S. natural gas futures hovered around $3.20/MMBtu, a ten-week high, supported by lower output. Production in the Lower 48 slipped to 107.4 bcfd in early September from a record 108.3 bcfd in August. The earlier supply surge fueled large storage injections, leaving inventories 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher year-over-year. On the demand side, forecasts call for above-normal warmth into early October, while LNG feedgas flows averaged 15.7 bcfd—slightly below August levels. Longer-term risks remain. Global LNG capacity is projected to expand 60% by 2030, with half of the new supply coming from the U.S. This raises the threat of oversupply, potentially pressuring prices in Asia and Europe. Still, strong domestic demand—driven by slower renewable deployment and rising AI-related power needs—may lend support to U.S. prices. In Europe, gas inventories stand at 82.3% capacity, with France and Italy above 90% and Germany at 76.6%. Softer Asian demand due to milder cooling needs has freed up cargoes for Europe, helping push prices lower. Geopolitical risks remain in focus. NATO–Russia tensions and potential sanctions on Russian energy—including Europe’s ban on seaborne imports by 2027—could disrupt supply and limit downside.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
Natural Gas: Buy The Rumor Sell The NewsNatural gas spiked higher in the morning session on a strong inventory report. Natural Gas inventories came in at 53B vs 66B est. This report is showing a greater demand likely due to the colder temps. In the afternoon Natural Gas reversed from the highs and sold off. Ending the day with a Daily topping tail. Technically the chart pattern in still strong. The 200 MA should be observed as bulls will want to defend that price level. The Chart is still showing $4.00 target unless we see a failed breakout. We netted a lovely day trade short today on the live stream.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by Trading-Capital
THE UNTOLD STORY OF 2025: The Looming US Natural Gas SqueezeHaving examined the broader oil picture, let's turn our focus to natural gas. Unlike oil, the US natural gas market is setting up for a potential sharp price increase in the near future. The US gas market is a relatively isolated phenomenon. Even if the rest of the world experiences falling energy prices and a widespread economic crisis, the situation in the US could be the complete opposite. Let's break down why. From a technical perspective, as with oil, I believe we established an absolute price floor in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic crushed prices that were already low due to a gas glut caused by the shale revolution and soaring production. The 2022 price spike, while sharp and emotionally driven by the war in Ukraine and the European energy crisis, failed to reach the peaks seen in international LNG prices. This was simply because the US market is not fully integrated with the global market. LNG export capacity was insufficient to pull massive volumes of US gas abroad; it remained trapped domestically. Subsequently, prices fell back to their previous lows. However, we now appear to be seeing the initial waves of a new cycle forming. A falling wedge or ending diagonal pattern currently developing could signal the sharp, explosive move that typically follows such a pattern. Several fundamental factors support this thesis: Growing LNG Exports: New LNG export projects are starting to draw more and more gas away from domestic supply. Soaring Power Demand: Demand for electricity generation from data centers (for cryptocurrency and AI) is rising dramatically. Stagnant Production: Gas production has plateaued and is not growing. The End of an Era?: A recent EIA report has sparked debate about the possible end of the shale gas and oil boom in the US, suggesting prime drilling locations are dwindling. Add an impending financial crisis and the potential for a credit crunch that the Fed may be unable to liquify this time around (a topic for a separate analysis), and you have a recipe for a perfect storm in the US market. Another critical factor is that US drilling and extraction are highly capital-intensive. Fracking requires significant working capital (equipment, materials) and involves high operational expenditures. This is all financed with debt. For the oil sector to remain profitable, it requires sustained prices above $60 per barrel. If oil prices fall and production declines—and we know the rig count is already dropping—the production of associated gas will also fall. If industry financing dries up, a wave of bankruptcies will begin. Highly leveraged small operators will be forced out of business, shutting in their gas production as they go. US prices would then skyrocket. Major players would begin to acquire struggling smaller companies, snapping up their assets and drilling rights at a discount, positioning themselves for the next cycle.
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by Energeia_Charta
1
Natural Gas fell on bearish EIA data and cooler forecastsNatural Gas fell on bearish EIA data and cooler forecasts October natural gas tumbled on August 18 after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected 90 bcf storage build, pushing inventories more than 200 bcf above the five-year average. XNGUSD remains under pressure from core fundamentals including supply-demand balances, weather trends, geopolitics, macro conditions, and competing fuel prices. Further downside came as forecasts showed fewer cooling degree days over the next two weeks. Analysts warned the market is running out of time for late-summer heat to tighten balances, with October often bringing cooling demand offset by weaker heating needs. Losses accelerated on August 18 as late-September forecasts turned cooler, reducing air-conditioning demand. Meanwhile, near-record U.S. output and elevated rig activity continue to weigh on prices.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
"Natural Gas: Sell the Weather Spike, Eyeing 3.600 Retracement"💡 NATGAS Sell Setup (Swing/Short-term Idea) Current Zone: 750–800 (upmove driven by short-term weather forecast & low inventory) Context: Compared to last year’s levels, Natgas is already trading in overbought territory. View: A retracement is highly probable from this zone. Target: Expect downside towards 3.600 at least. Bias: Selling preferred at higher levels. Buying not recommended. Risk Note: Weather-driven spikes may cause volatility, manage SL accordingly.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by Heraxia
1
Natural Gas Bearish News TodayNatural Gas crumbled off the inventory report this morning. Natural gas inventories came in at 90B vs 80B consensus. This larger than expected build shows a weaker demand for Nat Gas during this seasonal period. Key things to consider: 1. EU moves to accelerate ban on Russian LNG. 2. New Israel–Egypt pipeline coming online 3. China continues to import from Arctic LNG‑2 despite sanctions 4. Japan’s JERA in talks to buy U.S. shale gas assets 5. Gas storage in Germany & winter supply concerns 6. Western Canada storage nearly full; supply glut 7. Canadian production at record levels, but prices very low
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
U.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixedU.S. Natural Gas rises, but outlook mixed U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% to an eight-week high on August 17, supported by lower daily output and stronger demand forecasts for the next two weeks. However, October contracts retreated from a one-week high on Wednesday, settling slightly lower as traders anticipated a larger-than-average build in EIA inventories. Prices initially spiked midweek on forecasts for late-summer heat across much of the U.S., which is expected to drive up power-sector demand for air conditioning and slow inventory accumulation ahead of the winter heating season. Atmospheric G2 projected above-normal temperatures for September 22–26, with warmer conditions extending into the north-central U.S. from September 27–October 1. On the supply side, higher U.S. production remains a headwind. The EIA last week raised its 2025 output forecast by 0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day, near record highs, with active natural gas rigs recently hitting a two-year peak.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Profit Blueprint on XNG/USD! Is This the Bullish Energy Move?😎 Steal the Show with XNG/USD: The "Thief" Day Trade Blueprint! 🚨 Asset: XNG/USD (Natural Gas CFD) - Energies MarketVibe: A cheeky, calculated heist to snag profits with a slick Ichimoku breakout strategy! 💰 📜 The Master Plan: Ichimoku Kijun Line Breakout 🎯 Confirmed Bull Trend: The price has broken above the Ichimoku Kijun-Sen line, signaling a bullish move in the Natural Gas CFD market. This breakout is our green light to execute the "Thief Strategy" with precision! 🕵️‍♂️ Entry: The Thief’s Layered Approach 🔍 How It Works: The "Thief Strategy" uses a layering method with multiple buy limit orders to scale into the trade safely, protecting your capital while maximizing profit potential. No fear, just finesse! 😎 Buy Limit Layers: 🥉 2.960 🥈 2.980 🥇 3.000 🏆 3.020 💡 Pro Tip: Add more layers based on your risk appetite and account size for extra flexibility! Alternative Entry: If you prefer a single entry, jump in at the current market price after the Kijun-Sen breakout confirmation. Your call, Thief OG! 😏 🛑 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🚨 Thief Stop Loss: Set at 2.900, just below the breakout level to guard against reversals. Customize It: Adjust your stop loss based on your risk tolerance and strategy. This is your heist—own it! Note: Dear Thief OG’s (Ladies & Gentlemen), I’m not dictating your stop loss. Manage your risk and keep your profits safe! 💪 🎯 Target: Escape Before the Trap! 🏃‍♂️ Profit Target: Aim for 3.150, where strong resistance, overbought conditions, and a potential trap await. Cash out before the "police" (market reversal) catch you! Note: You’re the mastermind here. Take profits at your own discretion—don’t let me cap your gains! 💸 🔗 Correlation & Related Markets to Watch Natural Gas (XNG/USD) often correlates or reacts with: ICMARKETS:XBRUSD (Crude Oil Brent) – Energy sector movements can impact gas demand. FOREXCOM:USOIL (Crude Oil WTI) – Supply/demand shocks in oil can spill into gas pricing. OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold) – Inflation hedge & safe-haven flows can influence energy sentiment indirectly. TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) – A stronger/weaker dollar impacts commodity pricing. SP:SPX (S&P 500 Index) – Risk-on/risk-off sentiment across markets. Keeping an eye on these pairs helps confirm energy market momentum and macro sentiment. Key Correlation Point: Natural Gas prices often lead or lag other energy markets due to supply/demand dynamics and seasonal factors. Confirm your trade with cross-asset analysis for a sharper edge! 📊 🧠 Why This Setup Rocks Ichimoku Precision: The Kijun-Sen breakout is a reliable signal for short-term bullish momentum. Layered Entry Safety: The Thief Strategy’s multiple limit orders spread risk and allow scaling without overcommitting. Risk Management: Clear stop loss and target levels keep your heist disciplined and profitable. Market Context: Energy markets are volatile, but this setup leverages technical confirmation to ride the wave. 🌊 ✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community! #ThiefStrategy #XNGUSD #NaturalGas #Ichimoku #DayTrading #EnergyMarkets #TradingView
ICMARKETS:XNGUSDLong
by The-Thief
1
Weather vs. Supply: Nat-Gas prices rallyWeather vs. Supply: Nat-Gas prices rally Natural gas prices surged in mid-October, driven primarily by forecasts for hotter-than-average US weather, which was expected to boost demand for cooling and electricity generation. Supporting this bullish sentiment, data showed US electricity output had increased year-over-year. However, these gains were tempered by bearish fundamentals. US natural gas storage levels rose more than expected and remained above the five-year average, indicating ample supply. Furthermore, the number of active gas rigs held steady, remaining below their recent peak, while European gas storage levels were also below their seasonal average.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
GAS: FROM TRADING SMALL TO A NEW "GOLDEN AGE"?Despite the extremely nuanced wave count on the lower timeframes, we managed to sit on our hands when the market was unclear and only take selective, high-probability opportunities where they presented themselves. Overall, my base case scenario is that after some minor moves early in the week (TIP: NatGas often continues the previous week's trend into Monday-Tuesday), we'll see a powerful breakout to the upside. A move down is certainly possible, but we're not factoring it into our plan for now. We'll only shift our focus if the indicators start screamingly loudly about it. The big picture is painting a very optimistic scenario for gas. It looks like after one more downcycle, the commodity could be poised for a new "golden era" – or at least a very strong year. The global context is worth a separate deep dive. Right now, many LNG buyers worldwide are signing contracts linked to the US Henry Hub benchmark. It's quite plausible that US gas will become more expensive than oil-indexed gas (the standard in the Middle East, Asia, and for Russian LNG contracts). Like and comment if you find this topic interesting! If there's enough engagement, I'll put together a dedicated article on this, as I work in the LNG industry myself and this is a subject close to my heart.
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by Energeia_Charta
NATAG! - MOVE INCOMING!🚨 NATGAS – The Calm Before the Pop? 🚨 Alright traders, let’s break this beast down 👇 🕰 Weekly View Price just rejected hard from the 3.4 – 3.8 supply zone and has been sliding since. Now we’re parked on the 2.6 – 2.7 liquidity trendline. This is the decision point — bounce or flush into the 2.0s. 📉 Daily Structure The Elliott Wave count lines up: Wave (1) topped near 5.0 Wave (2) retraced cleanly Wave (3) rallied to 4.2 Wave (4) dragged us back to support Now the big question → do we get a Wave (5) relief rally back into 3.2 – 3.4 supply? 👀 ⏱ 4H Breakdown On the lower timeframe, price is coiling tight. Liquidity is building, stops are stacked, and it looks like a bear trap setup. A bullish push here could rip into overhead supply before the bigger trend resumes. 🎯 Trade Plan Entry Zone: 2.6 – 2.7 support TP1: 3.2 TP2: 3.4 – 3.5 SL: Below 2.45 (don’t hang around if it breaks) This isn’t a macro reversal — just a counter-trend bounce play. Quick in, quick out. ⚡ What do you think?
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by jamesibartram
1
Natural gas starts week higher on demand outlookNatural gas starts week higher on demand outlook U.S. natural gas climbed to $3.2, supported by forecasts for above-normal temperatures later this month and steady LNG feedgas flows. Demand is expected to stay light for the next six days but rise in mid-September as heat returns. Prices also gained on supply concerns amid Kinder Morgan pipeline repairs and the anticipated full restart of Freeport LNG. Forecasts for warmer weather across the eastern and southern U.S. added further support. Despite strong production near record highs, storage remains 2.2% below last year but 5.6% above the five-year average.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore