WTI – Bearish Retest of Broken SupportWTI has broken below a key support zone (highlighted in purple) and is currently pulling back into this same zone.
This area may now act as new resistance.
If price rejects this zone, we may see continuation toward the next major support level around 57.93.
The overall momentum is bearish, and the current upward leg looks corrective rather than impulsive, which supports the continuation scenario.
Trade Plan:
• Entry: After rejection signs inside the purple zone
• Stop Loss: Above the purple zone / recent swing high
• Take Profit: 57.93 area (blue level)
Bias:
Bearish continuation as long as price remains below the purple zone.
Logic:
This is a classic break → pullback → continuation structure.
If price fails to close back above this zone, sellers remain in control and the next bearish leg can unfold toward 57.93.
Trade ideas
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayIncreased policy stimulus in emerging markets, with greater certainty in the increase in demand.
Policy-driven procurement emerges as a new engine: The Indian government, in order to ensure the expansion of refineries (with an additional annual capacity of 20 million tons by 2025), launched the "Strategic Reserve Supplement Plan for Crude Oil". In the first half of November, the import volume increased by 16% year-on-year (reaching 5.4 million barrels per day), and it signed a 3-year long-term supply agreement with Saudi Arabia (locking an additional 1 million barrels per day). At the same time, Indonesia and Vietnam simultaneously introduced "Refinery Tax Reduction Policies", driving the import volume of crude oil in Southeast Asia to increase by 12% month-on-month. The policy benefits directly transformed into rigid procurement demands, breaking the single narrative of "weak demand".
Recovery of consumption scenarios exceeded expectations: Indian diesel consumption increased by 7.2% due to the acceleration of infrastructure investment (road and port projects increased by 25% year-on-year), while the demand for aviation kerosene in Southeast Asia increased by 9% month-on-month due to the recovery of tourism (international flight volume recovered to 110% of 2019). The demand for transportation fuels and chemical raw materials (with the commissioning of a new 1.2 million-ton ethylene plant in China) formed a "dual-wheel drive", and the expected monthly increase in global crude oil demand in November was 800,000 barrels per day, far exceeding the market expectation of 500,000 barrels per day.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:60.5-61
sl:61.5
Oil analysisAfter oil dropped to 56 dollars per barrel, it managed to climb back up to 62 dollars and hit a resistance there, and at the moment it has reached 59 dollars.
If it can break the support it is currently reacting to, a risky position down to 57.800 could be taken.
At this moment, besides this scenario, I don’t see any other opportunity until the chart gives a bullish signal.
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayMarginal improvement signals have emerged, and consumer resilience exceeded expectations.
The demand for replenishment in Asia has been concentratedly released: In November, China's petrochemical refineries received an additional 15 million tons of crude oil import quotas (approximately 300,000 barrels per day). In the first half of November, China's crude oil imports increased by 12% year-on-year, and the purchasing focus shifted to WTI-related varieties, which led to an increase in U.S. crude oil export volume from 5.4 million barrels per day to 5.8 million barrels per day (reaching a new high since October), forming a "import - export" positive cycle.
Heating oil demand started earlier than expected: In the first ten days of November in North America, the temperature was 3-5℃ lower than the average. The price of heating oil futures in the New York port rose by 4.2% in a week, and the output of heating oil by refineries increased by 8% month-on-month, which led to the continuous reduction of distillate oil inventories and indirectly stimulated the demand for crude oil purchases.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:59.5-60
tp:60.5-61
sl:61.5
WTI Crude resistance at 6160The WTI Crude Oil is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the longer term support, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 6160, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 6160 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 5946, followed by 5845 and 5780 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 6160 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 6215, then 6300.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the WTI Crude price breaks and holds above 6160. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USOIL BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 60.06
Target Level: 60.65
Stop Loss: 59.67
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayU.S. crude oil inventories have exceeded expectations for three consecutive weeks of decline, easing the pressure in Cushing.
The latest EIA data (as of the week ending November 1) shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (expected - 2.2 million barrels), with the scale of decline in the past three weeks exceeding market expectations, and a cumulative reduction of 12.6 million barrels. The core Cushing region's inventories ended the previous four weeks of consecutive increases and decreased by 1.2 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (to 35 million barrels, 8% lower than the 5-year average), shifting from "accumulation pressure" to "tight balance". This data directly dispelled market concerns about "more than 2 million barrels per day of accumulation in the fourth quarter", and $61 became the strong bottom range supported by inventories.
Global major consumption areas' inventories have improved simultaneously, verifying the resilience of demand
European ARA region's crude oil inventories dropped to 43 million barrels (a 12% year-on-year decrease), China's commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels on a month-on-month basis (with the start of refinery replenishment demand), and Japan's crude oil inventories also decreased by 5% compared to the previous month. Global major consumption areas' inventories have simultaneously declined, confirming that terminal demand is not "unilaterally weak", but rather shows "overall resilience under regional differentiation", providing cross-regional supply and demand support for oil prices.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:60.8-61
tp:61.8-62.5
sl:60.4
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for TodayPrecise control of production increase pace, directly addressing the pain point of the demand off-season
On November 2nd, the eight core member countries of OPEC + reached a key decision: in December 2025, they will maintain a slight increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but in the first quarter of 2026, they will completely suspend further production increases. This decision precisely hedged against the risk of "a record 4 million barrels per day surplus in 2026" as warned by the IEA. By freezing the supply increase in the weakest demand quarter (with demand possibly dropping by 2-3 million barrels per day in February and March), it forms a substantive "price protection and stabilization measure". Compared with the previous market concerns about "continuous production increase", the policy shift brought about a difference in expectations, providing strong support for oil prices. $60 became the implicit bottom line for the OPEC + policy to support the market.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy for Today
buy:60.8-61
tp:61.8-62.5
sl:60.4
Crude oil review - 03/11/2025Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ announced a modest output hike for next month, followed by a production pause through the first quarter of next year. The move signals the group’s acknowledgment of a growing supply surplus in 2026, despite earlier price declines due to concerns about oversupply. While tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers have added some uncertainty to supply forecasts, overall market conditions remain skewed toward excess production. Additional risks include disruptions from a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil facility and political instability in Nigeria, which could affect output and shipping flows.
On the technical side, the crude oil price has retested the major technical resistance at $62 and corrected to the downside since. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the daily range. The Bollinger Bands are still expanded, indicating that volatility in the crude oil market remains high, while the Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, suggesting a potential bearish correction in the upcoming sessions. If this becomes reality, the first area of potential support may be seen around the $60 level, which is the psychological support of the round number. The second area of support might be found around $58, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
wti 1h🔹 Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The market’s reaction to these zones — whether a breakout or rejection — will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
⚠️ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
✅ Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.
Is Crude Oil Setting Up for a Major Bearish Reversal?🛢️ XTI/USD “WTI” – Bearish Redistribution Zone Incoming (Thief Strategy Inside)
📉 Setup Overview
Market: XTI/USD (WTI crude oil)
Bias: Bearish confirmed — we’re looking for re-distribution / supply pressure to take control
Trade Type: Swing / Day Trade hybrid
🎯 Entry Plan (Thief-Layer Strategy)
I use a layering / multiple limit order approach (aka “Thief Strategy”). You may use any price level as entry, but here’s my preferred ladder:
Sell Limit @ 61.500
Sell Limit @ 61.000
Sell Limit @ 60.500
Sell Limit @ 60.000
Sell Limit @ 59.500
(You may extend more layers if you like)
You don’t need to hit all layers — just get partial fills, ride the move downward.
🚫 Stop Loss
Thief’s SL: 62.500
⚠️ Note to Thief OG’s: I’m not forcing you to follow my SL. You choose what works. Make money, take money — at your own risk.
🎯 Target
We see police barricade as a strong support zone + oversold trap possibility.
So primary target: 57.000
⚠️ Note to Thief OG’s: Don’t blindly hold to my TP. If price gives you your gains early, escape with your money — don’t wait for perfection.
🔍 Related Pairs & Correlations
AMEX:USO or USOIL (oil ETFs / indices) – real-world crude correlation
$BRENT/USD – watch for strength or weakness divergence
AMEX:XOP / AMEX:OIH (oil & gas sector indices) – sentiment in energy names
Key point: if Brent weakens while WTI breaks down, it reinforces the bias.
📌 Key Technical Notes
We’re waiting for ** redistribution / supply zone** to hold — a retest or failure bounce is ideal setup.
Oversold conditions + a “trap” candle (fake breakout) strengthen the move.
Use layering to average in, not “all-in” at once.
Be ready for whipsaws around support zones; partial exits can help.
✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
Disclaimer: This is Thief-style trading strategy just for fun. I am not giving financial advice. Trade at your own decision and risk.
#WTI #CrudeOil #XTIUSD #EnergyTrading #OilStrategy #Layering #SwingTrade #DayTrade #BearishBias #ThiefStrategy
WTI OIL TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
WTI OIL CLOSING PRICE 60.87$ per barrel
WTI OIL defended price at 56.45 per barrel and found a new weekly support at 59.62$ per barrel.
if oil break out of the descending trendline on its current support from 59.62$ per barrel ,it could hit 66.57$ per barrel resistance roof .
key supply zone 70.32$ per barrel
key supply roof 74,3$ per barrel
WTI FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK .
OPEC+ policies continuing with moderate production increases, balancing supply with steady but not surging global demand.
Demand in emerging markets, especially in Asia, remains resilient despite global economic uncertainties.
Geopolitical risks are present but largely priced in, with no immediate large supply disruptions expected.
Inventories and stockpiles are stable, and US shale production remains a key swing factor.
Shifts in energy transition policies and investment in renewables create a backdrop for gradual demand growth for oil, sustaining fundamental support for prices.
US oil inventory levels and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have a significant impact on oil prices, including WTI crude:
US oil inventories represent the stockpiles of crude oil held by commercial entities. When inventories decline, it signals tighter supply, which tends to push oil prices higher. Conversely, rising inventories indicate excess supply, weighing on prices. Recent trends show US commercial crude inventories dropping below seasonal norms, supporting upward pressure on oil prices despite global supply concerns.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a government-controlled emergency stockpile. Releases from the SPR increase available supply in the market temporarily, usually putting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when SPR drawdowns slow or reserves are rebuilt, it diminishes this supply cushion, which can support higher prices. The SPR has been at historically low levels recently following government releases, limiting its impact on immediate weekly inventory reports but remains a key factor in market confidence.
Overall, tight US inventories combined with limited SPR releases create a supply-constrained environment that supports oil prices. However, global supply dynamics, including OPEC+ production targets and non-OPEC supply growth, also play critical balancing roles. Market participants closely monitor US inventory reports and SPR announcements as near-term price catalysts due to their direct impact on available crude supply and market sentiment.
In summary, falling US crude oil inventories generally push WTI prices higher as they signal tighter market supply, while SPR drawdowns or replenishments modulate this effect by adjusting emergency stock availability. Both are key components in oil price dynamics and important for traders and analysts assessing near-term supply-demand balance.
#usoil #wtioil #crude
USOILHow to become successful in forex and stock trading:
1.Master fundamentals and technical analysis.
2.Build and follow a solid trading plan.
3.Apply strict risk management (4–6% rule).
4.Stay disciplined—control fear and greed.
5.Record and analyze every trade.
6.Focus on high-quality setups only.
7.Diversify across assets and markets.
8.Keep evolving—study, adapt, and grow daily.
The attack committee's risk has triggered supply anxietyDirect supply disruption risk: 900,000 barrels/day capacity at risk of zeroing out
The current daily crude oil production in Venezuela is 940,000 barrels (accounting for 0.9% of the global total). Although the absolute scale is limited, as the only OPEC oil-producing country not subject to production quotas, its production capacity has strategic resilience. Actions such as the arrival of US B-1B bombers and the deployment of the "Ford" aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean Sea, if escalated to military strikes, the core facilities of PDVSA, such as Lake Maracaibo oil field (accounting for 60% of the capacity) and Jose Port (the only deep-water oil port), will be directly paralyzed. Short-term exports may drop from 900,000 barrels/day to zero, forming a dual supply shock of "sanctions + war".
Replacement supply gap difficult to fill: OPEC+ remaining capacity in crisis
Currently, the total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is only 210,000 barrels/day, and it is concentrated in Saudi Arabia (180,000 barrels/day). If combined with the sanctions on Iran and disruptions in Red Sea transportation, Saudi Arabia needs to increase production by 170,000 barrels/day to fill the gap, which is close to its maximum idle capacity limit. Although US shale oil has potential, due to capital discipline restrictions, the maximum monthly increase in production is only 30,000 barrels/day, far from covering the supply vacuum in Venezuela. The price spread of heavy crude oil (the main type in Venezuela) has expanded from 1.2 US dollars to 1.8 US dollars, and structural tension has emerged.
Market sentiment preview: Risk premium accelerating inclusion
Historical data shows that after the US imposed sanctions on PDVSA in 2019, the weekly fluctuation range of oil prices expanded to 8%; while the impact intensity of military conflicts is 3-5 times that of sanctions - the oil facilities in Iran were attacked in 2019 (similar supply disruption), pushing oil prices to surge by 7.3% in a single day. Currently, the CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25, and funds have begun to layout geopolitical risks in advance. The premium of near-month contracts over far-month contracts has expanded to 1.2 US dollars, reflecting short-term supply concerns.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:59.5-60
tp:61-61.50
sl:58.5
Next week's crude oil trading strategyFundamentals: Inventory liquidation continues + OPEC + production increase debate, support margin strengthens
1.Inventory data remains positive, demand resilience verified
The latest EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have continued to deplete unexpectedly for two consecutive weeks, gasoline inventories have recorded the largest decline in the past 5 years on a year-on-year basis, and the inventories of the three major oil products are all below the 5-year average by 10%-15%, significantly easing the inventory pressure. Although inventories in the Cushing region have slightly increased, the overall de-accumulation trend has not changed. In addition, China's petrochemical plants' purchase volume in November is expected to increase by 5%-8% compared with the previous month, and terminal demand provides rigid support for oil prices.
1.OPEC + production increase debate intensifies, supply constraint not eased
OPEC + has obvious differences in the pace of production increase: Saudi Arabia hopes to expand production to regain market share, while Russia advocates maintaining a moderate increase of 137,000 barrels per day to avoid supply过剩 suppressing oil prices. The fulfillment rate of production increase in November was less than 60%, and the UAE has a 9.500 barrels per day gap due to oilfield maintenance, and Russia has not fully released idle production capacity. In addition, Saudi Arabia's "voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day" policy continues until the end of 2025, the supply side's protection for oil prices exceeds market expectations. Institutions predict that this week, OPEC + may maintain a small increase in production or suspend the increase, further limiting the supply increase.
1.Refinery profit supports processing demand
Although the diesel crack spread in the New York port has declined, it is still 40% higher than the same period in 2024, and the gasoline crack spread remains at a high level, supporting the stable operation of U.S. refineries at 87.2% and the daily crude oil processing volume at 17.3 million barrels, providing stable support for procurement demand.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:60-60.5
tp:61.5-62
sl:59
Next week's crude oil trading strategyGeopolitical Dimension: Rising Military Risks from the US to Venezuela, Becoming the Largest Uncertain Variable
Expected escalation of military operations, supply disruption risk premium
On October 31, Western media disclosed that the Trump administration is considering upgrading the military operation against Venezuela from maritime drug interdiction to ground-based air strikes, involving facilities such as naval bases and airport runways. The target list has been evaluated. Venezuela's current daily crude oil production is 940,000 barrels. If the military strike is implemented, its core oil fields and port facilities may be paralyzed, and short-term exports may drop to zero, creating a sudden supply gap. Although Trump did not explicitly deny it and the probability of actual actions before the election is affected by political games, the market has already begun to incorporate geopolitical risk premiums. The CFTC crude oil volatility index has risen from 18 to 25.
The Interaction between Russia and Venezuela Adds Uncertainty
The Maduro regime has urgently sought military support from Russia, including the supply of anti-missile missile systems and the upgrade of weapons maintenance. The Venezuelan transportation minister has secretly visited Moscow to hand over a personal letter. If Russia intervenes, it may intensify the geopolitical game in Latin America and further disrupt the crude oil supply chain; however, Russia has already invested a large amount of resources in the Ukraine issue, and the possibility of direct military intervention is low. It is more likely to respond in a "low-intensity" manner.
Next week's crude oil trading strategy
buy:60-60.5
tp:61.5-62
sl:59
US CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move from Key LevelI am quite pleased with how 📈USOIL reacted on a significant horizontal support level on a 4-hour time frame.
Following this test, the pair started to consolidate and form a horizontal range.
A breakout above the resistance of this range provided a strong bullish signal.
We are currently seeing a positive bullish reaction and can anticipate further growth when the market opens.
Our target levels are 61.53 and 62.06.
USOIL Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 60.87
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 60.50
My Stop Loss - 61.09
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 60.87
Target Level: 55.71
Stop Loss: 64.31
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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