WTI extends drop after 200 MA testAfter printing an inverted hammer off its 200-day average on Friday, we have seen a sharp slide in oil prices today.
Reports that the OPEC+ plans another increase to output in November is not helping the cause, with the market already fearful over excessive supply and weak demand growth.
Key support at 61.50 to 62.00 area was tested multiple times last week and it held. A break below that zone this week could be pivotal, if seen.
Resistance seen at 65.00 now, then the area between 66.50-67.00 - marking the 200 day MA.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
USOIL.F trade ideas
Supply and demand dynamics are dominating the oil marketSupply and demand dynamics are dominating the oil market
Technical Analysis
USOIL is consolidating within a horizontal channel between 61.50 and 66.00. The multi-period EMA is converging, indicating an accumulation phase before a breakout, in which the direction could determine the next trend.
Since the preceding trend was a downtrend and the price remains within a broader descending channel, the bias is more to the downside. Therefore, any rebound near the channel's upper bound is seen as a potential opportunity.
If USOIL fails to break above the horizontal channel's upper bound at 66.00, the price may reverse downwards to retest the lower bound around 61.50, with the potential to break lower towards the year's low of 55.00.
However, if USOIL breaks above the upper bound of the sideways range, it could test the upper bound of the broader descending channel around 70.50.
Fundamental Analysis
WTI crude oil prices are influenced by a mix of rising supply and price-supporting geopolitical events.
The resumption of crude exports from Iraqi Kurdistan, after a 2.5-year halt, is adding to the global supply, starting at 180,000–190,000 barrels per day (bpd) and expected to rise to around 230,000 bpd. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering a production increase of at least 137,000 bpd, reinforcing concerns about a year-end supply surplus.
However, news of attacks on energy infrastructure in Eastern Europe and measures to restrict fuel exports spark a short-term bullish momentum and increasing volatility.
Despite this, the factors truly dominating oil prices are weak demand and excess supply. Geopolitics remains an event risk with short-term, one-time effects. Therefore, prices continue to face headwinds overall.
Additionally, prices may fluctuate based on upcoming weekly inventory reports and dynamic production news that could exert further pressure.
Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
OIL Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
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Crude oil review -DAILY- 29/09/2025Oil prices slipped at the start of the week as expectations of another OPEC+ production hike in November added to oversupply worries. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $65, with the alliance led by Saudi Arabia considering raising output beyond the already scheduled October increase of 137,000 barrels a day. Most members, aside from Saudi Arabia, are already at their production ceilings, meaning actual supply growth will likely fall short of official targets. Still, China’s strong crude purchases have helped prices remain relatively supported. The International Energy Agency warned of a record surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ revives more supply while rival producers expand output. Goldman Sachs projects crude could slide into the mid-$50s next year despite ongoing Chinese stockpiling.
On the technical side, crude oil prices have been trading in a sideways channel formation with upper and lower boundaries around $66 and $62, respectively. Currently, the price is testing the resistance of the 100-day moving average, just below the upper boundary of the channel. The Stochastic oscillator is near extreme overbought levels, while the moving averages validate an overall bearish trend.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
USOIL H1 – Trading Plan I SEP/29/2025Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently consolidating between the POC zone (65.14) and the Support/Resistance area (64.70 – 64.80). Market structure shows both bullish and bearish possibilities depending on whether these key levels hold or break
Here are 4 possible scenarios with entry signals to watch:
📊 Scenario 1 – Rebound from Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80 (Support/Resistance).
Price action: Bullish reversal candlestick (Pin bar, Bullish engulfing) with volume confirmation.
Trading signal:
👉 Buy around 64.70 – 64.80
🎯 TP1: 65.14 (POC zone)
🎯 TP2: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone)
⛔ SL: below 64.40 (Demand zone).
📊 Scenario 2 – Breakout above Supply Zone
Watch zone: 65.56 – 65.79 (Supply zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes above 65.80 with strong volume.
Trading signal:
👉 Buy breakout above 65.80
🎯 TP1: 66.20
🎯 TP2: 66.80
⛔ SL: below 65.40.
📊 Scenario 3 – Breakdown of Support/Resistance
Watch zone: 64.70 – 64.80.
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.70 with strong bearish momentum.
Trading signal:
👉 Sell on pullback to 64.70
🎯 TP1: 64.40 (Demand zone)
🎯 TP2: 63.80
⛔ SL: above 65.10.
📊 Scenario 4 – Breakdown of Demand Zone
Watch zone: 64.20 – 64.40 (Demand zone).
Price action: H1 candle closes below 64.20 with increasing volume.
Trading signal:
👉 Sell breakout below 64.20
🎯 TP1: 63.60
🎯 TP2: 63.00
⛔ SL: above 64.60.
👉 Summary:
Holding above 64.70 favors Buy setups.
Breaking below 64.70 favors Sell setups.
Key short-term battle zone: 65.56 – 65.79 Supply area.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
USOIL: Bears Will Push
The analysis of the USOIL chart clearly shows us that the pair is finally about to tank due to the rising pressure from the sellers.
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USOIL: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 65.189 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
OIL (WTI) – Trading Plan | Sep 25, 20251. Main Trend
- On the H1 timeframe, crude oil is still maintaining an uptrend with a higher high – higher low structure.
- However, the short-term trend is showing signs of losing momentum, as price has broken below the H1 uptrend line and is now oscillating around the POC zone.
2. Key Zones
Resistance:
- 64.95 (CW VAH): Strong resistance, repeatedly tested but not yet broken.
- 65.20 – 65.50: Extended zone if a breakout succeeds.
Support:
- 64.70 – 64.65 (CW POC): Key price zone, where price is currently consolidating.
- 62.85 (CW VAL): Deeper support, overlapping with the previous volume base.
3. Price Action
- After breaking up to 64.95, price failed to sustain bullish momentum, forming multiple upper-wick candles → selling pressure dominates.
- Currently, price has fallen below the H1 trendline and is retesting the POC zone (64.65 – 64.70).
+If POC holds, price may rebound to retest 64.95.
+If POC breaks, price is likely to drop deeper towards 63.50 → 62.85 (VAL).
4. Candlestick Pattern
- Several long lower-wick candles have appeared around the POC → showing defensive buying pressure.
- However, recent bearish candles have relatively large bodies → signals remain unclear, confirmation is needed.
5. Trading Plan
📌 Scenario 1 – Buy with the main trend (priority):
-Buy around 64.65 – 64.70 (POC) if there is a clear bullish reversal signal (pin bar / bullish engulfing).
- Target: 64.95 → 65.20 → further to 65.50.
📌 Scenario 2 – Sell if POC breaks:
- Sell if price breaks decisively below 64.60 and fails on retest.
- Target: 63.50 → 62.85 (VAL).
👉 Summary: Crude oil remains in a long-term uptrend, but short-term momentum is weakening. The decision point lies at POC 64.65 – 64.70:
+If it holds → Buy up.
+If it breaks → Sell down.
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Crude Oil (H1) – Key Supply & Demand Scenarios I SEP/26/2025📌 Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation (High Probability)
Condition: Price holds above demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: H1 bullish candle closes above 65.4 with volume → Buy.
TP: 66.0 – 66.2
SL: below 64.6
📌 Scenario 2: Pullback then Bounce
Condition: Price gets rejected at 65.3 – 65.4, pulls back to retest 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Pinbar / Bullish engulfing candle at demand zone.
TP: 65.4 → 66.0
SL: below 64.5
📌 Scenario 3: Bearish Correction
Condition: Price breaks below demand 64.7 – 64.8.
Entry signal: Retest of broken zone with bearish rejection → Sell.
TP: 63.8 – 64.0
SL: above 65.0
📌 Scenario 4: Deeper Reversal
Condition: Price breaks below 63.8 – 64.0.
Entry signal: Retest supply flip + bearish confirmation candle.
TP: 63.0 – 63.1
SL: above 64.2
CRUDE OIL (WTI): More Growth Ahead
WTI Oil broke and closed above a strong rising trend line on a daily.
We see a pullback and a correctional movement now.
I think that growth will resume soon and the price will rise
to 65.55 level.
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OIL (WTI) – Trading Plan | Sep 23, 20251️⃣ Main Trend
- Overall: Short-term trend has shifted to bullish, but still needs confirmation at the 63.9–64.2 supply area.
- On H1: After a strong decline, price broke the downtrend line and bounced sharply.
- Currently, price has surged from the 62.0 area up to 63.8, touching a key resistance zone.
2️⃣ Potential Price Zones
Nearest Resistance:
- 63.97 (Swing POC – key balance zone + supply zone).
- 64.27 (Swing VAH – previous distribution high).
Key Support:
- 63.05 (Swing VAL – first dynamic support).
- 62.40–62.50 (confluence of demand + breakout zone).
- 62.0 (psychological support level, origin of the strong bullish leg).
3️⃣ Price Behavior
- Price rallied vertically, breaking the downtrend line → buyers are dominant.
- However, the latest H1 candle left a long upper wick at 63.9 → showing short-term selling pressure.
- If price holds above 63.05, the bullish trend may extend towards 64.2.
- If 63.05 breaks → high probability that price will retest 62.4 or even deeper to 62.0.
4️⃣ Candlestick Patterns
- Consecutive long-bodied bullish candles show strong buyer control.
- The most recent candle at 63.9 has a long upper wick → a warning signal of profit-taking.
Observation: If a bullish pin bar forms at 63.0–63.1 → confirms continuation of the trend. If a bearish engulfing forms at 63.9 → signal of a short-term reversal.
5️⃣ Trading Plan
📌 Scenario 1 – BUY at support (top priority)
Entry: 63.05 (Swing VAL).
Stop Loss: below 62.8.
Target: 63.9 → 64.2.
📌 Scenario 2 – BUY at deeper support
Entry: 62.40–62.50.
Stop Loss: below 62.0.
Target: 63.5 → 63.9.
📌 Scenario 3 – Short-term SELL (only if clear reversal candlestick signal appears)
Entry: 63.9–64.0 (Swing POC + supply zone).
Stop Loss: above 64.3.
Target: 63.1 → 62.5.
✅ Conclusion: The short-term trend has shifted to bullish after breaking the downtrend line. Priority strategy is BUY at the 63.05 or 62.4 support zones. SELL should only be considered if a strong bearish reversal candlestick signal forms at 63.9–64.2.
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Crude oil: go long on pullback to 63.8After crude oil rose yesterday, it gained upward momentum again during today's European session, with short-term trend biased toward bullish. Focus on going long when it pulls back to 63.80; if it breaks below 63.20, exit the position on the pullback. The target is 64.80. If it breaks below 63.20 during the US session, then focus on entering long positions again at the 0.5 and 0.618 support levels of the overall upward pullback later.
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 64.685.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 65.824 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOIL H4 | Falling towards 50% Fibonacci supportBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price fall to the buy entry which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the take profit.
Buy entry is at 63.49, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 62.26, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 65.65, which is a swing high resistance that is slightly above the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
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4 Possible Scenarios for USOIL (WTI Crude Oil, H1) I SEP/24/2025Scenario 1: Price Rejects Supply Zone (63.80 – 63.94)
The Supply Zone at 63.80–63.94 has acted as a strong resistance.
If price fails to break above this zone, a short-term pullback is likely.
Nearest target: POC zone at 63.05. If this level is broken, price could move further down to the Liquidity Zone at 62.36.
👉 This is a short-term bearish scenario.
Scenario 2: Price Breaks Supply Zone and Moves Higher
If price breaks out and closes an H1 candle above 63.94, the short-term bullish trend will be confirmed.
The Supply Zone will then flip into a support area.
Next potential target: 64.50 – 65.00.
👉 This is a strong bullish scenario, but confirmation is required.
Scenario 3: Price Pulls Back to POC Zone (63.05) and Bounces
The POC zone (Point of Control) at 63.05 is a key volume balance level.
If price retraces here and strong buying pressure appears, a bounce back toward the Supply Zone (63.80–63.94) is likely.
👉 This is a sideway-accumulation then bullish scenario.
Scenario 4: Price Drops Deep into Demand Zone (61.76)
If strong selling pressure breaks through the Liquidity Zone (62.36), price may fall deeper to the Demand Zone at 61.76.
This is a key demand level where a short-term bottom could form, followed by a strong rebound.
👉 This is a deep bearish then recovery scenario.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Please manage your own risk before making any trading decisions.
Oil analysisThe oil buy trigger we gave yesterday has been activated and already hit its target. After that, we need to wait and see how the price reacts to the channel’s ceiling before making the next decision. However, with this momentum, it looks like it’s heading to break the channel’s ceiling. ✅
USOIL TodayThe recent core support level is around 62,today, the price briefly bottomed out at the 62 support level, but immediately bounced back upwards and failed to achieve a genuine downside breakout. if this level is breached, the price may retrace to the 60-61 range. Resistance levels are concentrated in the 65-66 zone. Based on recent technical data, the momentum indicators on the daily timeframe are showing signs of a weak rebound.
WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 23 September 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed up from the key support level 61.70
- Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 61.70 (which has been reversing the price from the start of August) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 61.70 will most likely form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – if the price closes today near the current levels.
Given the strength of the support level 61.70, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (which stopped earlier waves a, 2 and ii).