Hellena | Oil (4H): LONG to the area of the maximum of wave “A”.Colleagues, the past forecast has not been canceled, but I see some changes and therefore feel it is necessary to make a fresh forecast.
Apparently, the corrective wave “B” has extended to the area of 57.930. This is quite close to the low of wave “C” at 56.408 and the price should not update it, otherwise there will be a full-fledged break of the structure.
In connection with the above, I think that the price is already completing the downward movement and I expect the resumption of the upward movement at least to the area of the maximum of wave “A” - 62.990.
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Trade ideas
OIL: Time To Rise AgainOIL: Time To Rise Again
Oil is moving within a "Descending Channel Pattern" which is clear and well defined.
Every time the price tested the lower support of the pattern, the price moved back up and every time Oil tested the upper boundary of the pattern, the price moved back down.
It is more likely that Oil has found strong bullish momentum again near the 57.40 support area and is probably preparing to move higher as shown in the chart.
KeyTargets:
58.70
59.50
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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🇺🇸 USOIL – Big Money Steps Back In | Fresh Sell Order BlockUSOIL continues to follow its broader downtrend as Big Money steps back into the market.
After a brief bullish correction, price was rejected sharply and formed a fresh VShark Order Block, supported by strong volume and a clean Imbalance zone.
This reaction reveals clear footprints of large players preparing for the next bearish leg.
🔻 Sell Idea
VShark suggests looking for short entries at the newly formed OB zone, targeting RR 1:2, respecting the prevailing bearish structure.
⚠️ Risk Notice
Always size your positions properly and manage risk carefully.
This is a technical analysis idea — not financial advice.
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✍️ VNSHARK Signature
Following the footprints of Big Money to understand the market’s true intention.
🏷️ Tags
#USOIL #WTI #BigMoney #OrderBlock #VSharkOB #Volume #Imbalance
#SmartMoney #PriceAction #InstitutionalTrading #VNShark #Commodity
Oil Upd:Price at Resistance–But the Real Story Is in OptionFlowRight now, price has reached the upper boundary of the 1σ Expected Range (ER).
A pause or rejection here is possible.
But that’s not the main story.
Bears are getting active in the options market.
First sign: A significant Put Condor has appeared — large enough to stand out.
Target range: $55–$57
Timeframe: 20 days to expiry
📌 For those still learning:
A Condor profits most when price stays within a tight range at expiry.
Second wave of bearish positioning:
Additional players are placing Put Spreads targeting $54–$55, but with a much shorter horizon — 5–7 days.
This shows a layered approach:
Short and mid- term pressure expected
🧠 Bottom Line:
I’m not jumping into shorts right now — and I wouldn’t advise it blindly.
But given this growing bearish sentiment, it’s smart to start looking for short setups
Sentiment is building.
WTI/USD: Bullish Rally to 62.45?CFI:WTI is gearing up for a bullish rally on the 4-hour chart , with price rebounding from a key support zone near cumulative long liquidation levels, setting up a strong entry opportunity if buyers maintain control and push toward resistance amid recent consolidation. Entry from current levels could also be favorable with proper risk management.
Entry zone between 57.5-58.3 for a buy position. Target at 62.45 near resistance.🎯 Set a stop loss at 56.335 , offering a risk-reward ratio greater than 1:2 . 📊 Watch for confirmation with a bullish close above entry and rising volume, capitalizing on oil's volatility.🌟
Fundamentally , WTI crude has fallen to around $58.13 per barrel as of November 21, 2025, amid supply outpacing demand, but recent breakouts above $60.7 signal near-term positivity despite forecasts of further drops to $53.50-$45.00 due to OPEC+ hikes and record US output. 💡
📝 Trade Setup
🎯 Entry Zone (Long): 57.5 – 58.3
🎯 Target (TP1): 62.45
❌ Stop Loss: 56.335
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward: Greater than 1:2, offering a clean upside swing with defined invalidation.
What's your take on this setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
WTI OIL Short-term relief rebound before a Lower Low?WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a 1-month Channel Down and has just completed its strongest Bearish Leg (-5.91%). All previous three Bearish Legs eventually bottomed and rebounded into the new Bullish Legs towards the Sell Zone consisting of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (red trend-line) range to form a new Lower High.
In 2 out of those 3 cases, it even exceeded the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect a short-term rise now to subsequently be sold towards the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. Our medium-term Target remains 56.500.
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Oil – Geopolitical Engine Ready to Fuel a Surge to $100My view: I believe that oil is one of the best investments for the upcoming years. There is a strong bullish potential, with targets up to $100 a barrel, based on geopolitical and fundamental factors
Geopolitical Risk
There is a real risk of conflict between the U.S. (with Trump) and key oil-producing nations such as Venezuela. Any intervention or sanction could generate a geopolitical risk premium in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia, a central OPEC+ member, may manipulate production to maintain high oil prices. Riyadh’s strategy could be driven by its need to fund its major development projects, especially under its Vision 2030 roadmap.
OPEC+ members have made varied production decisions: while some increase supply, heavier-weight countries like Saudi Arabia restrict production to defend prices.
Saudi Arabia is diversifying its economy, but petroleum remains a cornerstone to finance its transformation agenda.
To support its budget and future mega-projects, Riyadh may aim to keep oil prices elevated, which supports a long-term bullish case.
My target: $100/barrel in a scenario where geopolitical risks intensify or remain structurally elevated.
I believe investing in oil now has strong upside potential: the market may not yet fully price in all geopolitical threats or Saudi strategy.
Of course, risk scenarios must be considered (demand drop, energy transition), but from my perspective, the bull case is very credible.
USOIL The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
USOIL looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 57.97 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 58.98
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL : Full analysisHello friends
Well, you see that we have a descending channel in which the price is moving, and considering that the price reached the ceiling of the channel, we had a Sharpe decline, and now it seems that the sellers want to break the channel, and the first support identified could be the buyers' stronghold, where we need to see if they support the price or not.
If they support, there is a significant resistance in their way. This area is full of sell orders and can naturally correct the price. In this regard, breaking this resistance is very important and vital for price growth.
Now what if the buyers cannot support the price in the support area and the price falls further?
Well, we need to find areas again for a sell trade because if the descending channel is broken, the fall will be heavier and it is better to move with the trend.
This analysis is purely technical and is not a buy or sell recommendation.
*Trade safely with us*
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move After Trap
There is a high chance that Crude Oil will pull back
from the underlined daily key level.
I see a confirmed bear trap followed by a bullish imbalance
candle on an hourly.
I expect a rise at least to 58.51 level.
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USOIL Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 57.983.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 57.471 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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CRUDE OIL Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL is reacting inside the horizontal supply after a liquidity sweep, showing early bearish displacement. If rejection holds, price may continue lower toward the sell-side liquidity at the marked target zone.Time Frame 2H.
Sell!
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USOIL BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 58.63
Target Level: 57.35
Stop Loss: 59.48
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Temporary Long .. Would have thought this is the bottom but it is hard to decide these things. There seems to be a little support at $57.4,
The only pattern i see it oil getting rejected at the 50mma (green line), so any up move might stop at that line. Will wait for price action this week to see if it still is in this downward channel.
Analysis of Core Factors in the Short-Term Oil MarketSupply Side: The oversupply situation has become a consensus, and the geo-political support has failed
- Global supply remains consistently tight: The OPEC report in November adjusted the global oil situation to be in an oversupply state. The current daily production exceeds demand by 500,000 barrels, while the previous month's estimate was a shortage of 400,000 barrels. The IEA has continuously raised the expected global crude oil supply surplus for six consecutive months, and it is predicted that in 2026, there will be a record-breaking surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day. At the same time, the supply increase in the United States is significant. As of the week of November 21, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States increased to 419. The Trump administration also plans to open new drilling areas in the west coast and the Arctic. Additionally, although OPEC+ has suspended production increases in the first quarter of next year, the overall supply growth trend remains strong, making it difficult to change the oversupply situation.
- Geopolitical risks have marginally eased: There have been signals of peace talks in the Ukraine conflict. US officials stated that Ukraine has agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, with only some details yet to be finalized. Zelensky expects to "as soon as possible" visit the United States to advance the agreement. This news has weakened the geopolitical risk premium for oil. Although Russian refineries and export ports have been attacked multiple times recently, Russia can buffer through methods such as temporary storage in floating tanks, and the short-term export pressure is limited, making it difficult to have a substantive impact on supply.
Crude Oil Strategy Analysis
sell:58.5-59
tp:58-57.5
sl:59.5
USOIL:LIVE TRADEHello friends
you can see that we had a decline and the sellers were in power until the support was determined with Fibonacci, where buyers entered and were able to support the price.
Now, with Fibonacci, we have determined a resistance area for buyers that can move up to there, but considering the main trend, which is negative, the price increase is an opportunity for a sell trade.
Don't forget risk and capital management.
*Trade safely with us*
Supply sideThe situation of excess has become a definite trend, with weak supporting force
- OPEC + increased production, coupled with the conclusion of supply surplus, Securities Times e-Company: The OPEC report in November changed the global oil situation from healthy to surplus. Currently, the world's oil production exceeds demand by 500,000 barrels per day, while a month ago it was estimated to be a shortage of 400,000 barrels. Although OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in the first quarter of 2026, it will still increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and the continuous rounds of production increase in the past have continuously accumulated market supply pressure. At the same time, the compensation for production cuts by some oil-producing countries can slightly offset the impact of production increase, but it is difficult to change the overall surplus situation.
- Non-OPEC oil-producing countries have high production: The U.S. crude oil production remains at a high level, with the production reaching 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7th. Although it has slightly declined later, it still remains at a historical high level. EIA also raised the 2026 U.S. crude oil production by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. Its continuous production increase further intensifies the expectation of global supply surplus.
Next week's crude oil strategy analysis
sell:58-58.5
tp:57.5-57
sl:59.5
USOIL FREE SIGNAL|SHORT|
✅WTI OIL is returning into the higher-timeframe supply after clearing buy-side liquidity, signaling distribution. If rejection confirms, bearish displacement could drive price toward the sell-side liquidity target below.
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Entry: 58.70$
Stop Loss: 59.00$
Take Profit: 58.12$
Time Frame: 3H
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SHORT🔥
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WTI Crude Holds at Its Lowest Levels of the YearWTI crude oil continues to show a steady bearish bias below the 60-dollar area in the short term. For now, selling pressure has remained firm, while recent comments regarding the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia point to an increase in reinforcements aimed at achieving a possible ceasefire. Such a scenario could reduce the economic sanctions currently imposed on Russia and, over time, become an important factor that drives a stronger-than-expected recovery in global crude production. This backdrop has kept confidence in the price of the barrel limited, reinforcing a persistent bearish tone that could continue if an official ceasefire is eventually reached.
Medium-Term Trend Remains Firm:
During the second half of the year, the prevailing bearish movements in WTI have maintained a perspective aligned with a solid medium-term downward trendline. So far, no meaningful buying corrections have appeared that could threaten this bearish structure in recent weeks, making it likely that this formation will continue to dominate most price movements in the medium term—especially if the market continues to trade below the 50-period simple moving average.
Neutrality Begins to Emerge in Indicators:
At the moment, both the RSI line and the MACD histogram remain oscillating within the neutral range of their respective indicators. This suggests that, in the short term, both the average selling and buying impulses and the directional strength of the moving averages remain in a neutral and indecisive zone, which can partly be explained by the price interacting with important support areas. What matters here is that as long as both indicators maintain this neutral stance, they could open the door for potential bullish corrections to develop in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
60 dollars: This is the main resistance on the chart, aligned with the current downward trendline, the barrier marked by the 50-period moving average, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Buying moves that manage to break above this area could trigger a break of the bearish trend, potentially activating a more constructive bullish tone.
58 dollars: This level corresponds to the most recent zone of indecision and could become the reference area to monitor if bullish corrections begin to form within current price movements.
57 dollars: This marks the lowest level of the year and stands as the most relevant bearish barrier at the moment. Selling moves that break below this level could open the door to a more aggressive bearish bias, extending the current downward trend even further.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT - Market Analyst
WTI Crude Returns to the Year’s LowsIn recent trading sessions, WTI crude oil has posted three consecutive losing sessions, recording a decline of more than 4.7% in the short term. Selling pressure remains steady, driven by concerns over a potential market oversupply, especially with the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in December. Additionally, weaker market confidence has raised expectations of lower short-term demand for oil, reinforcing a sense of uncertainty in crude price movements. If this trend persists, it could result in stronger selling pressure in the coming sessions.
Downtrend Remains Firm
For now, the downward movements have maintained a bearish trendline that has persisted over recent months. So far, buying attempts have not been strong enough to challenge this structure. As the price approaches the year’s lows, the downtrend could become even steeper in the coming sessions.
RSI
The RSI indicator continues to show consistent oscillations below the neutral 50 level, suggesting that the average momentum over the past 14 sessions remains predominantly bearish. If the RSI continues to decline, this could indicate stronger selling pressure in the next few sessions.
TRIX
Meanwhile, the TRIX indicator remains below the neutral 0 level, signaling that the average strength of the exponential moving averages continues to favor a bearish bias. As long as this sentiment persists, selling momentum is likely to remain dominant in WTI crude’s price action.
Key Levels to Watch:
$57 – Key Support: Represents the year’s low zone and serves as the main bearish barrier. A break below this level could reinforce the ongoing downtrend and extend selling pressure in the coming sessions.
$60 – Nearby Barrier: Corresponds to the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements returning to this level could trigger indecision and lead to a short-term sideways range.
$64 – Major Resistance: Aligns with the 200-period moving average and represents the most important bullish barrier in the short term. If the price reaches this level, it could revive buying momentum and challenge the current bearish structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USOIL H4 | Bearish Drop OffMomentum: Bearish
The price is currently moving along a descending trendline and remains below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating continued downside pressure.
Sell entry: 60.35
Pullback resitance
Stop loss: 61.42
Pullback resistance
Take profit: 58.21
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