WTI: Oil Markets on Edge Despite Trump Considering Major TariffsOil prices could drop if Trump backs down on tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, but short-term bullish catalysts, like geopolitical tensions and bullish speculative bets, may still push prices up before longer-term headwinds take hold.
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Trump’s threats of steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil have sent oil prices surging, as traders fear a global supply crunch if Russian barrels are cut off.
But here’s the twist: Trump has a history of backing down or delaying tariffs after using them as leverage. When he does, oil prices usually fall, as the immediate risk of supply disruption fades.
If he caves in again by the deadline, which is 10 to 12 days from 4 August, or extends it, oil prices could drop. The bigger picture also appears bearish: OPEC+ is ramping up supply, global demand is slowing and expected to drop in H2, and inventories are rising (first glimpse by EIA, Wed).
But with the deadline falling around 14–16 August, 2025, short-term bullish catalysts could spark a rally up to the 38.2%-61.8 % Fibonacci retracement levels, positioning WTI better for declines (conditional on Trump!).
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USOIL trade ideas
USOIL Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 64.358.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 65.729 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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OIL Trade Insights📲 NFX TRADE ALERT
📊 TRADE TYPE: SWING TRADE
♻ PAIR: GBEBROKERS:USOIL
⬇️ SELL AT MARKET
📝 ORDER TYPE: MARKET ORDER
👨🏻💻 ENTRY : $64.45
⭕️ SL: 65.450
✅ TP: $62.00
📝 REASONS FOR TRADE: H1 Confirmation of Price Rejection at Resistance - SR Holds📈
Multiple reversal candles spotted on H4 around supply zone, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Pay close attention to US Inventory report later the morning.
I expect report to be bearish for oil given the high supply as seen last week.
Bullish bounce off key support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 64.17
1st Support: 63.59
1st Resistance: 65.73
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USOIL My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for USOIL s below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 62.35
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 63.12
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OIL Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Boring oilHonestly, even if you analyze oil just once a month and then come back to the chart the next month, you wouldn’t miss anything — the chart is that repetitive. For months now, the price has been fluctuating between \$63 and \$61. So for now, we won’t be posting any more oil analyses until a new conflict in the Middle East happens that could push the price higher. ✅
USOIL Long term outlookStill bearish short term, but stocks like GTE may be a strong buy at the MA support.
OIL will dump in the future as alternative fuels take its place or another economic standstill occurs i.e. pandemic v2 (ty bill gates), but then I expect OIL to pump from that low once it has been reached
Not financial advice
WTI falls after US slaps 50% tariff on India over Russian oilWTI oil prices have dropped from $65 to around $62.80 as markets react to new US tariffs on India, triggered by India’s ongoing oil trade with Russia. These tariffs, along with threats of even higher tariffs on China, are weighing on global demand and pushing oil prices lower. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil production has hit multi-year highs, adding more supply to the market and reinforcing the bearish trend.
Technically, oil has broken below a key Fibonacci support level, signalling a deeper pullback. If prices fall below $62, further downside toward $57 is possible. Upside moves may be short-lived unless there’s a major geopolitical shock, such as an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For now, both the macro environment and technical signals indicate continued pressure on oil prices.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Potential bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level, which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 64.12
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 63.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 65.71
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Crude oil - DAILY- 15/09/2025Oil prices extended last week’s gains as traders weighed rising geopolitical risks against forecasts of a surplus later this year. US President Donald Trump renewed pressure on Europe to cut Russian oil purchases and floated sanctions if NATO allies comply, while the US is also pushing G7 partners to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian crude.
Market sentiment remains shaped by escalating tensions, including Israeli strikes in Qatar and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Analysts warn that sanctions and infrastructure damage could push prices higher in the short term, but expectations of a supply overhang and OPEC+ production increases keep downside risks in focus.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has retested the major support area of $62 and has since rebounded to the upside. The Stochastic oscillator is back in neutral levels for the time being, hinting that the recent bullish correction could project into the near short term while the Bollinger bands are sufficiently expanded, showing that there is volatility to support any short-term spikes.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
WTI 4HTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead
In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives.
As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
Crude oil tests the key resistance areaWe’ll start our review with Crude oil: the price consolidates around the dynamic resistance area of $63-64, and may try to retest it again before starting another downswing. The sentiment for Crude oil in particular and for energy assets in general remains muted (though, stocks of the energy sector display modest gains).
According to supply/demand estimation from eia.gov, pressure for Crude oil futures will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the sentiment remains bearish, which is also confirmed by the price action.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
Crude Oil (USOIL) – Long SetupOil is currently trading around $63.20 and has formed a clean ascending structure, pushing into the breakout zone. Price is respecting the trendline well and is consolidating just below the EMA cluster – a breakout could be next.
We're currently in a narrow entry zone where bulls may gain control if we see a clean break above the local resistance range.
Trade Setup:
Entry: within the purple box (current zone)
Stop Loss: $62.60 just below the trendline – invalid if broken
Breakout Confirmation: clear candle close above $63.45
Targets:
T1: $63.70
T2: $64,60
Why Long?
Trendline support is holding – price has been bouncing cleanly off the rising line.
Momentum building – repeated tests of resistance without strong rejection.
EMA cluster as magnet – price may want to retest and potentially break through the EMA zone sitting above.
Summary:
Crude oil is coiling tightly just below resistance and trendline support is holding strong.
If we get a push above the breakout zone, I expect follow-through toward T1 = $63.70 and T2 = $64.60
Setup becomes invalid if the ascending trendline breaks clearly to the downside.
No financial advice – just how I see the chart.
OIL Trade Setup - September 12th📲 NFX TRADE ALERT – Swing Setup
💹 Instrument: Crude Oil GBEBROKERS:USOIL
🛒 Trade Type: Swing – Sell at Market
📍 Entry: $63.60
⛔ Stop Loss: $64.50
✅ Target Profit: $60.50
📊 Trade Setup Analysis – GBEBROKERS:USOIL
🔻 23.6% FIB rejection
🔻 200 SMA rejection
🔻 Rising wedge retest rejection
🔻 OPEC+ supply hike
That’s quadruple confirmation supporting a solid short position.
USOIL(WTI) – Demand Zone Tested,Potential Bullish Reversal AheadCrude Oil (WTI) is showing signs of strength after respecting the support level near $60–62 and forming a clear demand zone. Price has been consolidating within a descending structure and is now attempting to push higher.
Key observations:
✅ Support level held strongly near $60.
✅ Multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) signals indicating momentum shift.
✅ A potential breakout above the descending triangle may open the path toward the $70–72 demand zone.
📈 If bullish momentum continues, next targets lie around $76–80 resistance area.
On the downside, a break below $60 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose a move toward $56–54.
This structure highlights a possible trend reversal from the bottom toward higher levels, as long as buyers maintain control above support.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Strong Bearish Pressure
WTI Crude Oil is under a strong bearish pressure after
US CPI release today.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a flag pattern
in a clear intraday downtrend on a 4H time frame leaves
a strong confirmation.
I think that the price will reach 62.0 level soon.
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