THE BEAST- Well hello !So just a quick update on the last one.
USOIL(WTI) has managed to push further into the sixties.
The daily RSI is showing signs of a shift upwards.
The extended targets from the previous one. Profit taking is essentially as price is in a range of created a while back. (Yellow box)
There could be some selling from the middle or to of the box.
Long term, the plan has not changed. I’m still long. Though there could be some retesting of lower levels, this could be a sustained move up.
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt 🧂. 👌🏼
USOIL trade ideas
01-09-2025 USOIL The market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
As shown in the figure: 15M Bullish Bat
USOIL (WTI Crude) – Buy & Sell Trade Scenarios🔵 Bullish Scenario (Buy Call)
Entry Zone: Break and sustained close above 65.20 – 65.50 (current 4H resistance).
Reasoning:
Price has retested the 64.90 resistance cluster multiple times, suggesting absorption of supply.
Volume shows declining sell pressure near resistance – a sign of potential breakout.
A breakout with strong volume confirms buyers stepping in.
Target 1: 66.75 (measured move into next liquidity pool).
Target 2 (extended): 68.20 – 68.50 (previous structural pivot).
Stop Loss: Below 64.20 (false breakout protection).
R:R Potential: ~1:2.5 to 1:3
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Sell Call)
Entry Zone: Rejection at 65.00 – 65.50 resistance with bearish confirmation candle.
Reasoning:
This zone has acted as a strong supply area since mid-August.
Multiple wicks rejecting the level + increasing sell volume hint at distribution.
If price fails to close above resistance, sellers regain control.
Target 1: 63.00 – 63.20 (mid-support range).
Target 2 (extended): 62.00 – 61.90 (major support zone).
Stop Loss: Above 65.70 (wick protection).
R:R Potential: ~1:2 to 1:3
⚖️ Key Technical Takeaway
64.90 – 65.50 = Pivot zone (battle between bulls and bears).
Breakout + volume = bullish continuation to 66.75+.
Rejection + heavy volume = bearish rotation back to 62.95.
Crude holds range ahead of key OPEC+ MeetingOil prices steadied after falling in August, with West Texas Intermediate trading near $64. Markets remain pressured by oversupply concerns from OPEC+ and forecasts of a record surplus next year. Attention is on the Sept. 7 OPEC+ meeting, where restoring 1.65 million barrels a day of voluntary cuts will be debated. The US is pushing India to stop Russian oil imports, threatening secondary tariffs, while Prime Minister Modi defended ties with Moscow during a meeting with Putin in China, arguing Russian flows helped stabilize global prices. Despite some opportunistic US purchases, Indian refiners continue buying Russian crude. Meanwhile, hedge funds cut bullish bets on US crude to an 18-year low, reflecting oversupply fears and economic uncertainty.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has been moving sideways last week and seems to be in the same situation this week if no major events take place. The combination of the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages, as well as the upper band of the Bollinger bands, is currently acting as the major resistance area around $65. TheBollinger bands are quite contracted, showing that volatility has dried up, further supporting the sideways movement in the upcoming sessions. The Stochastic oscillator is near the extreme overbought levels, but this has little to no significance since there is no volatility to support any major corrections. The Fibonacci levels are the short-term support area around $63, and the upper band of the sideways channel might be seen around $65, as mentioned.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
oil sell Current Assumed Position: The market appears to be completing a 4th wave correction (as a Zig-Zag pattern) within a larger impulsive trend.
Wave A (Down): Complete.
Wave B (Up): Complete. This was the counter-trend bounce.
Wave C (Down): Currently in progress. This is the final leg of the corrective pattern.
Key Guidance on the Length of Wave C:
Elliott Wave theory provides two primary guidelines for estimating the length of a C wave within a Zig-Zag:
Most Common Relationship: Wave C is often equal in length to Wave A.
This is the standard first target. Measure the price length (not time) of Wave A and project that same distance downward from the peak of Wave B.
Common Alternative: Wave C frequently extends to a length of 1.618 times the length of Wave A.
This is a very typical target if the underlying trend is strong and the C wave becomes powerful. This would be your second, deeper target.
What this means for your analysis:
Calculate the price difference (High - Low) of Wave A.
Subtract that value from the high of Wave B to find your primary target for the end of Wave C.
For a more bearish scenario, take the length of Wave A x 1.618 and subtract that from Wave B's high to find a secondary target.
Important Consideration:
Wave C must subdivide into a full 5-wave impulse itself. It cannot be a simple three-wave move. Monitor the internal structure of this decline to confirm it is developing as a 5-wave pattern, which will add confidence to this projection.
In summary: The most probable minimum length for Wave C is a decline equal to Wave A. Be prepared for a move extending to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave A.
USOIL: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 63.969 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Crude oil retraces, but has a limited potentialCrude oil is moving in a technical upswing, transitioning to the cycle of retracement. The next resistance area would be located at around the $65-66 price area, as the downtrend is still intact. Volatility (ATR) for Crude oil has reached the level of March 2025: the lowest level of the year. That brings the beginning of either a broader breakout or a new wave of selling closer.
According to seasonal charts, Crude oil might get under pressure in October, while September usually delivers a sideways action, especially if there are no related drivers and navarres.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
WTI 4HTrading Outlook for Major Currency Pairs and Indices, Especially Gold and Silver, in the Upcoming Week
In this series of analyses, we have reviewed short-term trading perspectives and market outlooks.
As can be seen, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance area near the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or break of these levels will determine the subsequent price trend up to the next specified levels.
Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to identify key price levels and potential market reactions, and the analyses provided should not be considered as trading signals.
CRUDE OIL Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a retest
Of the horizontal resistance
Of 65.00$ from where
We are already seeing a
Bearish reaction and we
Will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Crude Oil Update: Bearish Momentum Continues🔥!
In our previous analysis, we anticipated a downward move in oil—and it delivered, generating solid gains for many of our followers. The technical setup was clear, and price action confirmed our expectations.
📉 Current Outlook:
The bearish trend remains intact, and we continue to expect further downside to reach our remaining targets. Momentum is building, and the chart signals are aligning for continuation.
📌 Full breakdown and chart analysis will be posted in the comments—stay tuned and trade smart!
WTI Crude Oil – Range Support in FocusWe're waiting for price to reach the bottom of the range, and with a solid buy signal, we’ll consider going long.
However, since this level has been tested multiple times, it’s highly vulnerable to stop fishing — so caution is key.
As always, we’re ready for all scenarios:
If price breaks below, we’ll wait for a pullback to enter short.
But right now, we’re watching the range support for potential longs
Bearish reversal off major resisstance?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level, which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 65.87
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 51.8% Fibonacci projection and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 67.42
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 63.50
Why we like it:
There is an overlap in support.
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29-08-2025 USOILThe market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
As shown in the figure: 15M Bullish Gartley
USOIL SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 64.06
Target Level: 61.35
Stop Loss: 65.86
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
27-08-2025 USOILThe market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
As shown in the figure: 15M Bearish shark
Oil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut FearsOil Market Faces Balancing Act as Supply Risks Meet Glut Fears
Russian supply risks are clashing with growing concerns of a global supply glut as summer winds down. Crude benchmarks gained over 1% in the previous session after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories, though the pace of declines slowed from the prior week.
Analysts warn that OPEC+ unwinding production cuts, combined with rising output from non-member producers, could tip the market into surplus, according to MUFG’s Soojin Kim.
While Brent continues to trade at a near-term premium, signaling tight supplies, that premium has narrowed — a sign of softening demand expectations ahead.
Oil (WTI) – Short Term Turmoil Dominates Heading into SeptemberIt’s been a choppy week for Oil (WTI), with traders frequently adjusting their positions in response to various short-term factors. On Monday, optimism around a potential Federal Reserve rate cut, which could stimulate the global economy, drove oil prices higher and WTI rose from its opening level of 64.28 to a three-week high of 65.84.
Tuesday saw selling pressure dominate, as traders awaited news on whether the Trump Administration would enforce a proposed increase in tariff penalties on India, from 25% to 50%, for purchasing Russian energy. This uncertainty pushed prices down to a low of 63.66. However, once confirmation came that the tariffs would indeed be implemented, and an EIA report revealed a decline in inventories at the key U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma (the first drop in two months), oil prices rebounded.
Looking ahead, oil prices may remain volatile in the short term as traders await clearer signals about the strength of the global economy, particularly from the U.S. and China. Key data releases over the next 10 days could provide that insight.
On Sunday, China will publish its official PMI manufacturing survey, offering a snapshot of industrial activity. Then, on Friday, September 5th, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report will give a crucial update on the health of the American labour market.
Another key factor to watch will be developments from OPEC+, as markets await further updates on whether the group will move to restore between 1.3 and 1.6 million barrels per day of previously shuttered production. Their next meeting, scheduled for early September, could provide crucial direction for oil prices depending on the outcome.
Technical Update: Upside Held by 38% Retracement Resistance
Since posting the 62.24 August 13th session low, Oil (WTI) has enjoyed a period of price strength, with the market moving higher to 65.84 on August 25th.
However, as the chart above shows, this strength was capped by 65.70 which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance, a level that is often a focus for traders, when prices rally following an extended phase of weakness.
Oil (WTI) has seen prices pullback from this 65.70 area this week, suggesting it may be a level to watch in the coming sessions. However, what could be the potential support or resistance levels, if either, 65.70 continues to act as resistance and pushes prices lower, or if further price strength emerges and it gives way on a closing basis?
Potential Support Levels, If 65.70 Continues to Hold Price Strength:
After facing selling pressure at the 65.70 retracement level, Oil (WTI) has shown signs of weakness. Attention may now turn to 62.24, the low from August 13th. As buyers were found here before, they may be again, reinforcing 62.24 as next possible support.
However, as the chart shows, since the highs of June 23rd, Oil (WTI) has been forming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which may indicate negative sentiment. If prices close below the 62.24 support level, it could trigger further downside momentum, potentially towards 60.17, the low from May 30th.
Potential Resistance Levels, If 65.70 is Broken on a Closing Basis:
While a close above the 65.70 resistance wouldn’t guarantee continued strength, it could open the door to a more sustained phase of upside momentum.
Such moves could then result in the extension of the current recovery to test 67.84, the higher 61.8% retracement, possible further, if this in turn gives way on a closing basis.
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Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
USOIL H4 | Bearish reversal offUSOIL has reacted off the sell entry, which acts as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to the downside.
Sell entry is at 63.96, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 65.00, which is a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 61.80, which is a swing low support.
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USOIL Struggles to Hold Gains, Bearish Trend Intact
Current market sentiment is bearish.
USOIL is struggling to hold above resistance and leaning towards support.
USOIL is trading at $63.76, below the mid-Bollinger band → showing weak momentum.
Price failed to hold above $66–68 resistance zone and is now trending lower.
Price is leaning towards the lower band, suggesting bearish continuation risk.
OIL - at a very interesting point for longsWatch OIL carefully:
if the day closes above 65.38 (daily bullish engulfing) therefore above the previous weeks close, we could be going for another weekly impulse that would take us to the $86.40 level (conservative target: $78.40). According to your edge and how you are able to structure your operations, you have great risk to reward potential. For instance, even if you use the engulfing candle as your buy stop entry and the low of the candle as your stop loss i.e. you are going for the full daily swing, you are talking about a 1:6.5 R:R, which is already amazing in itself.
Levels on the chart, trade with care.
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