Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 60.56
1st Support: 57.68
1st Resistance: 62.10
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Trade ideas
TLDR: SELL Gold, BUY OilGold/oil ratio seems to be evolving in a band. We've had RSI divergences every time we touched the band predicting trend reversal. RSI Divergence playing out right now as we touch the seemingly relevant support.
- FX_IDC:USDWTI / FRED:WM2NS is at an all time low support level (1998, 2016, 2020)
- TVC:GOLD / FRED:WM2NS at an all time High (1983, oct 2011)
Gold/Oil ratio looks like a Big BUY to me. Enjoy \o/.
WTI (Crude Oil) โ Bullish Bat in ProgressOANDA:WTICOUSD
A bullish Bat pattern is currently forming, with a potential completion near $57.86 โ the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg.
If the pattern confirms, it could trigger a bullish move toward $65.70, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level.
Price action around $57โ58 will be key โ watch for reversal confirmation, as momentum divergence before validating long positions.
Crude oil: Bearish sentiment is expectedCrude oil finally broke below the strong support level of 61 in the late trading session last week. Once this level is breached, it opens up new downside room. Crude oil remains bearish this week; if there is a rebound, we can continue to take short positions, with minor resistance around the 61.30 level.
Sell 60.50 TP 59.00 - 57.00 SL 61.3
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable referenceโdonโt hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
WTI Crude Oil โ Elliott Wave Analysis๐ข๏ธ WTI Crude Oil โ Elliott Wave Analysis
Wave Structure ยท Smart Money ยท Fib Confluence ยท Price Action
๐ Market Context & Overview
WTI Crude Oil remains one of the most critical and closely watched commodities in the global market. After decades of dramatic price swings driven by geopolitical events, supply shocks, and evolving demand patterns, the market now appears poised at a pivotal juncture. Combining Elliott Wave theory , Smart Money Concepts , Fibonacci retracements & extensions , and price action analysis with fundamental macro insights reveals a compelling narrative: Crude is concluding a prolonged corrective phase and preparing for a significant breakout. This analysis breaks down each wave, highlighting key technical and fundamental factors shaping the future trajectory of oil prices.
๐น Wave 1 โ Early Impulse (1970sโ1985)
๐ Technicals: Formed the foundational uptrend post-oil embargo.
๐ง SMC: Accumulation following global inflation shock.
๐ Fib: Initial rally; shallow extension, not impulsive in character.
๐ Macro: Oil embargo, inflation, and a restructuring of global energy markets gave birth to this initial move.
๐น Wave 2 โ Complex Correction (1985โ1999)
๐ Technicals: Multi-decade W-X-Y corrective pattern, fully retracing Wave 1.
๐ง SMC: Smart Money accumulation masked by long-term bearish structure.
๐ Fib : Deep correction toward 78.6%, classic for Wave 2.
๐ Macro: OPEC instability, Gulf War, rising non-OPEC supply, and suppressed demand through globalization.
๐น Wave 3 โ Supercycle Rally (1999โ2008)
๐ Technicals: Powerful impulsive rally, achieving 1.618 Fib extension of Wave 1.
๐ง SMC: Clear Break of Structure (BoS) in early 2000s; institutions led the markup.
๐ Fib: Ideal third-wave behavior โ extended and directional.
๐ Macro: China-led supercycle, supply bottlenecks, geopolitical conflict, and a commodities renaissance pushed oil to $147.27.
๐น Wave 4 โ Still In Progress (2008โ2026 est.)
๐ Technicals: Long, complex W-X-Y-X-Z or potential triangle; entering final E-leg now.
๐ง SMC: Liquidity grabs during COVID (2020) and 2022โ24 highs; Smart Money sweeping both ends.
๐ Fib: Final leg projected to terminate near 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 (~$47.55).
๐ Price Action: Distribution in 2011โ14, liquidation in 2020, false rallies, and compression since 2022.
๐งจ Macro: GFC aftermath, shale oversupply, COVID demand crash, ESG underinvestment. Currently driven by energy policy chaos and geopolitical rebalancing.
โณ Wave 4 is near completion , with the final move expected to tag the 0.5 retracement before reversal.
๐น Wave 5 โ Upcoming Macro Breakout (2026โ2032 est.)
โก Technicals: Expected impulsive breakout wave toward price discovery.
๐ง SMC: Anticipate Break of Structure (BoS) above $147 for confirmation of markup phase.
๐ Fib: Target zone between previous high ($147) and 2.618 extension (~$366.58).
๐ฅ Macro: Long-term underinvestment, peak cheap oil, geopolitical tension (Russia, Middle East), energy transition bottlenecks. Inflation & policy shifts will add fuel.
๐ This is the final leg of the cycle and could mirror or even exceed the explosiveness of Wave 3 due to multi-decade supply-demand imbalances.
โ
Final Summary
Crude Oil is completing its Wave 4 correctio n, expected to bottom around $47.55 โ the 0.5 retracement of Wave 3 . The corrective structure is nearly exhausted, showing signs of Smart Money accumulation and multi-leg exhaustion. Once Wave 4 completes, a powerful Wave 5 is expected to begin, targeting $195โ$366 , driven by macro energy scarcity, inflation, and long-term capital flow back into commodities.
This is a strategic inflection zone โ where technical compression meets macro ignition.
"Master the waves, follow the smart money, and let Fibonacci guide your path to consistent trading success." โ FIBCOS
#WTICrudeOil #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #WaveTheory #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #OilTrading #CommodityAnalysis #MarketCycles #PriceAction
USOIL: Check lower levels after breaking out of the rangeThis is my previous analysis โ feel free to take a look for reference.
OIL PRICE OUTLOOK
(Week of Oct 06 - 10, 2025)
1. Institutional Forecast Updates
โ IEA (Sep 15, 2025):
WTI targets $64.2/bbl for 2025 and $47.8/bbl for 2026
Brent targets $68/bbl for 2025 and $51/bbl for 2026
โ Goldman Sach (Jul 14, 2025):
WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
โ J.P. Morgan (May 16, 2025):
WTI targets $63/bbl for H2 2025 and $52/bbl for 2026
Brent targets $64/bbl for H2 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026
www.rigzone.com
www.reuters.com www.jpmorgan.com
2. Key Drivers & Risks
๐น Updates on SupplyโDemand and Geopolitical News
OPEC+ announced a milder-than-expected production increase of around 137 kb/d for November, leaving the oversupply outlook through 2026 largely unchanged.
Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden have flared up again.
U.S. inventories and weekly data: API estimated a draw of 3.7 mb (Sep 26), while recent EIA reports have shown mixed, inconsistent trends.
Market consensus: Reutersโ latest survey keeps the Brent forecast at ~$67.6/bbl for 2025, unchanged from last month, with expectations for lower prices around $60 in 2025 and further weakness into 2026.
๐น Watchlist for Next Week
Official details on OPEC+โs November production implementation
API / EIA weekly U.S. oil data
Maritime security developments
Any notable demand-side signals
๐น Overall View
Governments appear to favor keeping oil prices lower to support economic growth, though current levels are near or below breakeven for many producers.
Oil prices are expected to gradually decline within a relatively narrow range of $70โ$50, while potential supplyโdemand shocks remain key factors to monitor for any sharp volatility.
3. Technical Analysis
* Trend: assessed using at least three trend indicators, with market structure as the primary guide.
** Weak or Reversal Signals: Assessed based on one of our criteria for trend reversal signals.
*** Support/Resistance: Selected from multiple factors โ static (Swing High, Swing Low, etc.), dynamic (EMA, MA, etc.), psychological (Fibonacci, RSI, etc.) โ and determined based on the traderโs discretion.
**** Our advice takes into account all factors, including both fundamental and technical analysis. It is not intended as a profit target. We hope it can serve as a reference to help you trade more effectively. This advice is for informational purposes only and we assume no responsibility for any trading results based on it.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future ๐โจ
George Vann @ ZuperView
XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls Below $60XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls Below $60
Fridayโs comments from President Trump about the potential introduction of 100% tariffs on trade with China pushed WTI crude oil below the $60 level for the first time in four months. The bearish sentiment stemmed from fears of a global economic slowdown amid escalating trade tensions between the worldโs two largest economies.
The decline was further supported by news of peace efforts in the Middle East, which reduced the impact of geopolitical risk on oil prices.
As the XTI/USD chart shows, WTI is currently trading below $60. How might the situation unfold next?
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
In the long-term view, oil price movements (following the flare-up in the Middle East in June) have formed a descending channel shown in red โ notably, the current price has fallen below its lower boundary.
In the shorter term, we can observe an acceleration of the decline, emphasised by the purple trajectory lines.
These observations suggest that selling pressure remains dominant, while any recovery attempts are likely to meet resistance near:
โ the psychological level of $60;
โ the lower boundary of the red channel;
โ the purple median line.
Given that the White House is reportedly in favour of lower oil prices (as a means of stimulating the US economy and exerting pressure on geopolitical rivals), WTI crude could drift towards the yearโs low around $55.
However, from the demand-side perspective, it cannot be ruled out that the oil market, known for its false breakouts above previous highs (A, B, C), may repeat a similar move above peak D โ a pattern that, in Smart Money Concept terms, would represent a liquidity grab.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crude oil -DAILY- 13/10/2025Oil prices rebounded after President Trump suggested he was open to a trade deal with China, calming markets rattled by his recent announcement of 100% tariffs and Chinaโs retaliatory port fees on U.S. ships. The softer tone sparked a short-term recovery as traders covered losses from last weekโs heavy selloff. The move is likely temporary, with limited upside unless genuine progress is made in trade talks. Meanwhile, rising OPEC+ production and easing tensions in the Middle East are keeping supply pressures elevated and capping further gains in the oil market.
On the technical side, crude oil price has declined quite extensively late last week and has , for the time being, found sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Currently, the price is trading just below the $60 price mark, which is also the psychological support of the round number, while at the same time, the moving averages are validating the overall bearish trend in the market. The Stochastic oscillator is still in the extreme oversold levels, but it has been in this area for quite some time, so the validity of the oscillator cannot be taken into consideration due to the prolonged period of oversold conditions. Even though the Bollinger Bands are quite expanded, there are no major signs of a reversal just yet; therefore, a sideways movement might be the most probable scenario in the upcoming sessions.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
Start Trade on - Crude Oil
๐ข Side ways Range - 59.575 to 60.001- Don't Trade'
๐ข On 4 Hours Chart Market Breaks below- 59.583
expect MKT fall down - Target Level 1- 58.308
Target level 2 - 56.233
..........................................................
๐ข If break above 60.005 can Take Buy Entry" Target Profit - 61.331
....................................................
HI Retail Trader.
This subject to Educational Purpose" โ
Please Do your own Analyzation and Use Proper Risk - Money management
And Trade"๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ
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Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 58.884Colleagues, it appears that the downward movement is not over and I see several reasons to continue to look short.
The higher order wave โCโ is looking to complete the correction and I expect the start of the middle order wave โ3โ to see the low update and reach the support area at 58.884.
Fundamental context
Oil remains under pressure as supply increases and demand outlook weakens. OPEC+ decided to slightly raise output for November, while U.S. inventories keep growing. Crude lost about 8% last week, and EIA now expects lower prices by the end of the year โ all of which supports the idea of a continued downside move within wave โ3โ toward the 58.884 support area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Usoil - Retracement to FVG Before Bullish ContinationMarket Structure & Key Levels
Resistance Zone: Price reacted from this supply area, showing short-term rejection after BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside.
FVG (Fair Value Gap): Price is expected to retrace into this imbalance zone for demand before resuming higher. Watch for bullish price action here.
Weak Low: If price breaks this low, the bullish scenario becomes invalid and deeper downside may follow.
Structure Highlights:
BOS (Break of Structure): Several BOS points confirm previous bearish trend and recent short-term bullish correction.
CHoCH (Change of Character): Marked at the base of reversal near FVG zone, indicating possible trend shift.
EMA Confluence: Price hovering around short EMAs, showing possible slowdown and setup for a pullback.
Trade Scenario
Expected Move:
Price could retrace to the FVG zone (imbalance fill) before a bounce.
From there, bullish momentum may resume toward the target zone above resistance.
Bullish Confirmation:
Look for price to tap into the FVG, form bullish structure (e.g., BOS, CHoCH), and engulfing patterns or lower-timeframe entries.
Target would be near recent highs or break above resistance at ~$59.90โ60.00.
Invalidation:
Break below the Weak Low would invalidate this bullish setup and open room for further downside.
WTI Crude Oil Short Setup: Former Support Acting as New ResistanHello TradingView Community,
This post outlines a potential short trade setup for WTI Light Crude Oil (XTIUSD) on the 15-minute timeframe.
Technical Analysis:
The chart highlights a key horizontal price level at approximately $59.83. This level previously served as a solid support base, holding the price up.
We have recently witnessed a decisive breakdown below this support, indicating a shift in momentum to the bearish side. The price is now pulling back to retest this broken structure from below. This is a classic "support-turned-resistance" scenario. The expectation is that this level will now act as a ceiling, rejecting the price and leading to a continuation of the downtrend.
Trade Setup:
The short position tool on the chart visualizes a potential trade plan based on this bearish outlook:
Entry: Approximately $59.83 (at the retest of the new resistance).
Stop Loss: $61.00 (placed above the resistance zone to invalidate the idea if the price reclaims the level).
Take Profit: $56.07 (targeting a new potential swing low).
This setup provides a structured plan with a clear risk-to-reward ratio for a potential move lower.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading commodities involves significant risk. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk appropriately before making any trading decisions.
US OIL bullish rally !Technically, the $71-$74 range appears to be a reasonable short-term consolidation zone, provided no significant escalation in Iran tensions occurs. However, given the high likelihood of worsening tensions, USOIL may retest $80 and potentially even surpass $80 and can touch 86$, driven by geopolitical developments.
TVC:USOIL
entered @70$. SL 68.3$
partially booking @80
Holding rest till 85$ with Trailing SL
Can USOIL Break Higher? SMA Breach & Target at $68๐ข๏ธ USOIL Energy Market | Cash Flow Management Strategy (Swing/Day Trade)
๐ Trading Plan:
๐ Bias: Bullish (pending order setup)
๐ Confirmation: When Simple Moving Average (SMA) is breached by buyers, trend confirmation is valid.
๐ Entry Style: Layered buy-limit entries after breakout confirmation (Thief Strategy ๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ = multi-layer entry).
๐ฅ Layered Buy Limit Orders (example setup):
64.00 โ
64.50 โ
65.00 โ
65.50 โ
(You can increase the number of layered entries based on your own style โ flexibility is the thiefโs edge!)
โ ๏ธ Important: Buy-limit layers are only valid AFTER breakout confirmation. Do not jump in without confirmation.
๐ฏ Risk Management (SL & TP):
๐ Stop Loss (Protective Level)
Example stop placement: 63.50
(๐ Note: This is my style. Manage risk in your own way โ never copy-paste without adapting!).
๐ Target Zone
Projected resistance near 68.00, aligned with:
Weighted Moving Average (WMA) resistance
Overbought conditions
Possible โtrapโ zone โ ๏ธ
๐ก Best approach: Secure profits step by step. Escape once the target region is approached.
๐ข Note for Traders (Thief OGโs):
Iโm not recommending only my SL or my TP. This is just a framework. Youโre responsible for your own money management, profits, and exits. Trade at your own risk, and take the bag when you feel itโs right. ๐ฐ
๐ Correlation & Related Pairs to Watch:
Energy markets are heavily correlated across multiple assets:
๐ข๏ธ TVC:USOIL / BLACKBULL:WTI โ Main setup
๐ข๏ธ BLACKBULL:BRENT โ Moves in sync with USOIL, watch for confirmation
๐ต TVC:DXY โ Stronger USD often pressures crude oil prices
๐น AMEX:XLE (Energy Sector ETF) โ Tracks US energy stocks, gives indirect flow confirmation
๐ช FX:NGAS โ Energy sector cousin, can sometimes give early signals of demand shifts
Keep an eye on these related pairs/assets for flow confirmation and stronger conviction.
๐งพ Key Points Recap:
โ๏ธ SMA breach = buyersโ control confirmed
โ๏ธ Layered entries (Thief Strategy ๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ)
โ๏ธ Stop loss = personal choice (mine @63.50)
โ๏ธ Target = 68.00 escape zone
โ๏ธ Risk & reward = your own responsibility
โ๏ธ Watch related assets for confirmation
โจ โIf you find value in my analysis, a ๐ and ๐ boost is much appreciated โ it helps me share more setups with the community!โ
#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets #SwingTrade #DayTrade #TradingStrategy #PriceAction #ThiefStrategy #LayeredEntries #XLE #BRENT #DXY #NGAS
WTI Oil Shorting Opportunity | Technical + Macro Confirm๐ WTI CRUDE OIL | Money-Making Thief Plan ๐ข๏ธ (Swing/Day Trade)
๐ก๏ธ Thief Strategy Plan (Bearish Bias)
Plan: Bearish setup confirmed โ sellers in control after MA rejection of bulls ๐
Entry (Layered Style):
63.000 ๐ช
62.500 ๐ช
62.000 ๐ช
61.500 ๐ช
(You may increase or adjust layers based on your own plan)
Stop Loss (Thief SL): @64.000 โ
โ ๏ธ Adjust SL according to your risk & strategy
Target (Thief TP): Key resistance zone + overbought trap @4.6700 ๐ฏ
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGโs) โ I donโt recommend locking only my TP. Take your profits wisely & manage risk responsibly. ๐ฐ
โ Why This Plan?
Moving average rejection confirms sellersโ dominance โ๏ธ
Technical indicators showing strong sell bias ๐
Layered entry strategy helps in catching moves efficiently ๐ฏ
Oversupply risk + weak demand = bearish fuel ๐ฅ
Retail & institutions both leaning short-side heavy ๐ป
๐ Market Analysis (Technical + Fundamental + Macro + Sentiment)
๐ Real-Time Price Action - Sep 05
Daily Change: -1.03%
Monthly Change: -2.84%
Yearly Change: -8.44%
๐ Retail & Institutional Sentiment
Retail Traders: 35% ๐ | 55% ๐ป | 10% ๐
Institutional Traders: 30% ๐ | 60% ๐ป | 10% ๐
๐ก๏ธ Fear & Greed Index
Current: 25/100 โ Fear ๐
Mood: Cautious, driven by oversupply fears + weak demand
โ๏ธ Fundamental Score: 40/100 (Bearish)
U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly +2.42M vs. -2.19M expected ๐
OPEC+ considering production increase ๐
Weak China demand signals ๐
๐ Macro Score: 35/100 (Bearish)
Fed rate cut expectations (25bp likely in September) ๐ธ
Global slowdown fears ๐ (Europe + Asia weak data)
Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine) limited impact ๐จ
๐ Overall Market Outlook: Bearish (Short Bias) ๐ป
Declining prices + rising inventories + OPEC+ supply hike risk
Technicals = Strong Sell (daily/weekly)
Sentiment favors sellers across the board
๐ฎ Key Takeaway
WTI/USOIL remains heavy under supply pressure + demand weakness.
Market sentiment is fearful, with both retail & institutions leaning short.
โก Keep eyes on U.S. jobs data + OPEC+ decisions for any trend shifts.
๐RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH
BRENT CRUDE ( TVC:UKOIL ): $66.42 (-1.8% daily)
NATURAL GAS ( FX:NGAS ): $2.84 (-0.7% daily)
ENERGY ETFS: XLE, USO, UCO
OANDA:CADJPY : Oil-correlated currency pair
ENERGY STOCKS: NYSE:XOM , NYSE:CVX , NYSE:COP , NYSE:SLB
โจ โIf you find value in my analysis, a ๐ and ๐ boost is much appreciated โ it helps me share more setups with the community!โ
#USOIL #WTI #CrudeOil #ThiefTrader #EnergyMarkets #Commodities #OPEC #SwingTrade #DayTrade #OilAnalysis
USOIL towardws range 185-250 $Looking at long term chart we can see usoil is competing the descending cycle, 2nd wave (1st corrective) started from 130$ peak.
In my view the bottom could be 50.3$ area where I think bullish trend will resum and wave #3 will start to 1st target 185$ area.
Final targetpoint could be 250$ area
The US-Oil will jump from the historic Support LevelHello Traders
In This Chart US-OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today US-OIL analysis ๐
๐ขThis Chart includes_ (US-OIL market update)
๐ขWhat is The Next Opportunity on US-OIL Market
๐ขhow to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
US OILHI GUYS,
CORRECTION ON US OIL TECHNICAL AND PRICE PATTERNS ON THE ON GOING DOWNTREND
Earlier last week i posted a possible buy and i said it was manipulation . after a few hours of technical i have noticed that i was wrong however the buys were not wrong.
This is the most accurate path and price patterns to happen. lets trade with ease, I expect buys on Monday morning
USOIL LONG FROM SUPPORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 58.26
Target Level: 60.45
Stop Loss: 56.80
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
โ
LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEASโ
WTI 4H๐น Overall Outlook and Potential Price Movements
In the charts above, we have outlined the overall outlook and possible price movement paths.
As shown, each analysis highlights a key support or resistance zone near the current market price. The marketโs reaction to these zones โ whether a breakout or rejection โ will likely determine the next direction of the price toward the specified levels.
โ ๏ธ Important Note:
The purpose of these trading perspectives is to identify key upcoming price levels and assess potential market reactions. The provided analyses are not trading signals in any way.
โ
Recommendation for Use:
To make effective use of these analyses, it is advised to manually draw the marked zones on your chart. Then, on the 5-minute time frame, monitor the candlestick behavior and look for valid entry triggers before making any trading decisions.






















