USOIL Hello people I haven't posted here in a while, were currently approaching a support zone key area on the daily which is 61.69, the daily remains bearish whilst the 4hr is bullish, see how it reacts on monday around the support area of 61.69 I still think prices will remain low as Trump wants it low so we may see 50s soon.
OIL_CRUDE ๐ข๏ธ๐ฅ Why Oil Spiked to 64.40 Then Collapsed to 62.40?? Here Is The Full Picture:
Oil climbed into 64.30โ64.40 resistance before fading sharply to 62.40 and closing the weekly candle bearish. ๐ Headlines suggested bullish momentum, but the technical + fundamental structure told the real story.
๐๐ Technical View:
1-๐ซ Strong rejection at 64.30โ64.40 supply zoneโ sellers defended this ceiling. 2-๐ Momentum failure at EMAs (34 & 89 on 8H/16H) โ rallies couldnโt sustain trend confirmation. 3-๐จ Candle Range Theory (CRT) shifted tone: ๐ด red = bearish candle, ๐ข green = bullish candle, ๐ orange = indecision. The switch aligned with reversal. 4-๐ TSI rolled over from extension highs โ momentum fading. 5-๐ Stoch RSI crossed down from overbought (>90) โ sell timing trigger. 6-โ ๏ธ Bearish divergence โ price made new highs, but momentum didnโt follow.
โ Result โ rejection at resistance + confluence = fast bearish reversal.
๐๐ Fundamental View
1-๐ต Fed cut 25 bps โ smaller than expected โ โbuy rumor, sell factโ selling. 2- ๐ข๏ธ Crude draw (-9M barrels) โ bullish headline, but mostly exports, not real demand. 3- ๐ญ OPEC hike โ minor, but with oil at 61.25 lows, the smaller hike looked bullish short-term, fueling 64.40 run. 4-๐ฅ Russia refinery strike (Ukraine) โ temporary shock, offset by Russia adapting + EU/US sanctions. 6-๐ Global demand โ still weak, keeping upside capped.
๐ง ๐ Takeaway
The spike was headline-driven โก, but technicals signaled weakness before the sell-off:
1- Fed cut too shallow. 2- Crude draw lacked true demand. 3-OPEC still adding supply. 4-64.40 acted as a hard ceiling.
๐ Result โ Fade back to 62.40 and bearish weekly close.
๐๐บ๏ธ Path Ahead
1-๐ข Support โ 62.00โ62.50: break below = push toward 61.70. 2-๐ด Resistance โ 64.00โ64.40: reclaim with strength needed to tilt bullish.
USOIL this was my biggest L on a market in terms of reading PA. I never could imagine that Oil would still be this cheap around this time, it truly baffles me. its the only market that least respects pure PA, and the only one that I could concede and say yes fundamentals drive it. thought Idk because I never followed them closely. I stopped trading it in Aug 2023, and i have no regrets doing that. PS its me, picklerick
USOIL Hello people I haven't posted here in a while, were currently approaching a support zone key area on the daily which is 61.69, the daily remains bearish whilst the 4hr is bullish, see how it reacts on monday around the support area of 61.69 I still think prices will remain low as Trump wants it low so we may see 50s soon.
