USOIL latest trend analysis and operation layout#USOIL
Crude oil continued to rebound in the European session, but the short-term 4H moving average was still pressing downward, and it was obvious that the short-selling momentum had not completely subsided. The overall trading rhythm is mainly based on rebound shorting. The short-term upper resistance level is 63.5-64.5. If it fails to break through effectively, crude oil will usher in a retracement, with the target looking at 62.5-61.5
๐ SELL 63.5-64.5
๐ TP 62.5-61.5
USOUSD trade ideas
OILUSD โ Demand Zone Reaction (4H Analysis)Price has been moving in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Recently, it tapped into a strong demand zone (blue box) and is now showing signs of a bullish reaction.
๐ Key Points:
Price reacted strongly from the demand zone.
A trendline break is visible, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening.
Stop loss is placed below the demand zone (61.36).
Take profit is set at the next supply zone / resistance around 66.05.
๐ก If buyers hold this level, we may see a strong push toward 66.05. But if demand fails, price could revisit lower levels.
Analysis review on oilIf the Middle East were a more stable region, the fair price of oil should be around **\$45**.
The market is inclined to move toward that level, but the ongoing and escalating unrest in the Middle East is preventing it.
In any case, my analysis remains the same as the previous one on oil, with no changes.
Is there a chance of a 50 basis point cut? SPX traded to new all time highs today.
Many stocks had blow off move or breakout candles.
Market makers cleared out lots of short interest today.
The employment data is starting to get worse.
A new 2 year high in initial jobless claims.
Markets rallied on dollar and yields weakness.
At some point the markets will price in a recession. Growth stocks need to be monitored closely.
We took profits on Tesla & Baidu today.
USOIL Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 62.543.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 70.257 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL(WTI) โ Demand Zone Tested,Potential Bullish Reversal AheadCrude Oil (WTI) is showing signs of strength after respecting the support level near $60โ62 and forming a clear demand zone. Price has been consolidating within a descending structure and is now attempting to push higher.
Key observations:
โ
Support level held strongly near $60.
โ
Multiple Change of Character (CHoCH) signals indicating momentum shift.
โ
A potential breakout above the descending triangle may open the path toward the $70โ72 demand zone.
๐ If bullish momentum continues, next targets lie around $76โ80 resistance area.
On the downside, a break below $60 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose a move toward $56โ54.
This structure highlights a possible trend reversal from the bottom toward higher levels, as long as buyers maintain control above support.
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Please trade responsibly and manage your risk
USOIL Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 61.941.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 58.529 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USOIL Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 63.116.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 65.546 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Crude Oil (XTI/USD) at Key Resistance: Breakout or Rejection ?Crude Oil (XTI/USD) has reached a major resistance level and now faces a critical decision point. If price breaks above this resistance, a long trade setup becomes attractive with upside targets at $70 and $71.
However, if rejection occurs at this level, downside momentum could build, with potential declines toward $60 and then $56. Traders should wait for price action confirmation before positioning, as the next move will likely define near-term market direction.
OIL Trade Setup๐ข NFX Trade Update โ USOIL FX:USOIL
Price pushed above $64, tagging the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which I believe should hold. This move looks like a liquidity grab, hunting short stop-losses (our last setup included ๐
). Classic SMC in play.
Now we have clearer insight: the key question is whether price respects the 23.6% Fib or extends higher. Based on strong fundamentals (recent inventory build signaling oversupply), I doubt sustained higher prices. The bearish case still holds weight.
๐ฅ Full breakdown and details in the video.
WTI Crude Oil โ Falling Wedge Near Demand ZoneWTI is approaching a strong demand zone around $60โ$61 while forming a falling wedge pattern.
A bullish breakout from this structure could trigger a move toward $68โ70 in the coming weeks.
๐ Key Levels:
Support: $60โ61 (demand zone)
Resistance: $68โ70 (target zone)
โ ๏ธ This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Always manage risk accordingly.
Oil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gainOil near $63 as Middle East tensions and tariff risks drive gains
WTI crude traded around $63 August 10, marking a third day of gains as Middle East tensions escalated after Israel struck Hamas leadership in Qatar. The move adds to years of regional operations and heightens supply concerns, supported by OPEC+โs smaller October output hike.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump urged the EU to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to pressure Russia, with Washington ready to match. U.S. crude inventories rose 1.25M barrels, tempering the rally. Global stocks gained and the dollar steadied ahead of key U.S. inflation data, while gold held near record highs.
Range formationAs we analyzed yesterday and mentioned, the price was likely to form a range, and now this range has been activated. We need to wait and see whether the price breaks the range from the top or from the bottom. My personal opinion is that the probability of an upside breakout is higher due to the current conditions.
04-09-2025 USOILAs shown in the figure๏ผ 4H Bullish Cypher
The market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
Crude oil tests the key resistance areaWeโll start our review with Crude oil: the price consolidates around the dynamic resistance area of $63-64, and may try to retest it again before starting another downswing. The sentiment for Crude oil in particular and for energy assets in general remains muted (though, stocks of the energy sector display modest gains).
According to supply/demand estimation from eia.gov, pressure for Crude oil futures will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, so the sentiment remains bearish, which is also confirmed by the price action.
Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
Complicated situation in the Middle EastThe downtrend in oil is quite clear to everyone, and naturally, oil prices are heavily dependent on war and insecurity news in the region. If the Middle East were in a normal state, oil prices should have been much lower. However, despite the ongoing downtrend, I donโt think it will drop below \$61. We might see a range forming, and thereโs also a chance that a single piece of news could reverse the trend.
WTI Oil Shorting Opportunity | Technical + Macro Confirm๐ WTI CRUDE OIL | Money-Making Thief Plan ๐ข๏ธ (Swing/Day Trade)
๐ก๏ธ Thief Strategy Plan (Bearish Bias)
Plan: Bearish setup confirmed โ sellers in control after MA rejection of bulls ๐
Entry (Layered Style):
63.000 ๐ช
62.500 ๐ช
62.000 ๐ช
61.500 ๐ช
(You may increase or adjust layers based on your own plan)
Stop Loss (Thief SL): @64.000 โ
โ ๏ธ Adjust SL according to your risk & strategy
Target (Thief TP): Key resistance zone + overbought trap @4.6700 ๐ฏ
Note: Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGโs) โ I donโt recommend locking only my TP. Take your profits wisely & manage risk responsibly. ๐ฐ
โ Why This Plan?
Moving average rejection confirms sellersโ dominance โ๏ธ
Technical indicators showing strong sell bias ๐
Layered entry strategy helps in catching moves efficiently ๐ฏ
Oversupply risk + weak demand = bearish fuel ๐ฅ
Retail & institutions both leaning short-side heavy ๐ป
๐ Market Analysis (Technical + Fundamental + Macro + Sentiment)
๐ Real-Time Price Action - Sep 05
Daily Change: -1.03%
Monthly Change: -2.84%
Yearly Change: -8.44%
๐ Retail & Institutional Sentiment
Retail Traders: 35% ๐ | 55% ๐ป | 10% ๐
Institutional Traders: 30% ๐ | 60% ๐ป | 10% ๐
๐ก๏ธ Fear & Greed Index
Current: 25/100 โ Fear ๐
Mood: Cautious, driven by oversupply fears + weak demand
โ๏ธ Fundamental Score: 40/100 (Bearish)
U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly +2.42M vs. -2.19M expected ๐
OPEC+ considering production increase ๐
Weak China demand signals ๐
๐ Macro Score: 35/100 (Bearish)
Fed rate cut expectations (25bp likely in September) ๐ธ
Global slowdown fears ๐ (Europe + Asia weak data)
Geopolitical risks (Russia-Ukraine) limited impact ๐จ
๐ Overall Market Outlook: Bearish (Short Bias) ๐ป
Declining prices + rising inventories + OPEC+ supply hike risk
Technicals = Strong Sell (daily/weekly)
Sentiment favors sellers across the board
๐ฎ Key Takeaway
WTI/USOIL remains heavy under supply pressure + demand weakness.
Market sentiment is fearful, with both retail & institutions leaning short.
โก Keep eyes on U.S. jobs data + OPEC+ decisions for any trend shifts.
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โจ โIf you find value in my analysis, a ๐ and ๐ boost is much appreciated โ it helps me share more setups with the community!โ
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