This year's target: Around 133889.92
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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
The price has been rising above the HA-High indicator, forming a step-up trend.
You can see that the upward movement of the step-up trend is slowing down.
The key question is whether the price can rise above the right Fibonacci level 2.618 (133889.92), which is considered this year's target.
If it shows further upward movement, it could rise to around the right Fibonacci level 3 (151018.77).
Even so, it must ultimately break above the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range on the 1W chart. Therefore, we need to see if the price can rise above the 116259.91-119086.64 range and maintain its upward momentum.
If it fails to rise, it will eventually touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart again.
From a long-term perspective, the price must remain above the 69000-73499.86 level to maintain the uptrend.
Therefore, we must first confirm support near the first, second, and third levels.
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(1D chart)
The 116259.91-119086.64 range is the resistance zone on the 1W chart.
If the price rises above this range, the 120760.81-124658.54 range, which is the resistance zone on the 1D chart, awaits.
Therefore, the 116529.91-124658.54 range should ultimately be considered the resistance zone.
To determine whether this range is important, you should examine the movements of auxiliary indicators such as StochRSI, On-By-Signal (OBV), and TC (Trend Check).
To break above this important range and continue the uptrend,
1. The StochRSI indicator must be trending upward. Ideally, it should not be in the overbought zone.
2. The On-By-Signal (OBV) indicator must be trending upward. If possible, it should remain above the High Line.
3. The TC (Trend Check) indicator should show an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the 0 level.
It's important to meet the above conditions when breaking above the resistance zone of 116529.91-124658.54.
If not, there's a high chance of failing to break above the resistance zone.
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The HA-Low and HA-High indicators included in this chart are designed for trading on Heikin-Ashi charts.
Therefore, a basic trading strategy can be utilized: buy near the DOM (-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell near the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range.
However, if the price rises from the HA-High to DOM(60) range, it is likely to exhibit a step-like upward trend. If the price falls from the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, it is likely to exhibit a step-like downward trend.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading approach.
We can see that the HA-High to DOM(60) range, i.e., the resistance zone, is likely to form, and then a pullback is likely to occur as it attempts to break above it.
Auxiliary indicators (StochRSI, OBV, TC) indicate the strength needed to rise again from a pullback, or a downward trend.
Although the 110644.40 level still serves as weak support, the DOM(-60) level has been identified.
For the 110644.40 level to function as support, it must hold for at least three days.
Therefore, during this period of volatility, we need to monitor whether the DOM (-60) indicator holds at 110644.40 after October 14th (October 13th-15th).
This is because if the price fails to break above the resistance zone of 116259.91-124658.54, the 110644.40 level could serve as support.
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I believe the bull market is likely to continue until this year.
If it rises further, the upward trend could continue through the first quarter of 2026.
However, a major bear market is expected in 2026.
Therefore, we need to finish the year on a good note.
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Thank you for reading.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain in more detail when the bear market begins.
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