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QqqBeen awhile since I went over Tech.. Let's start off with a bigger picture Zooming out you can see that we've tagged our long term resistance since sept Zooming in but staying on the weekly You'll notice the reversal weekly bearish engulfing and also the volume.. The candle alone is is nasty, but that volume is a bad. The most volume we've seen since april rebound and it's bearish.. So with that being I think are headed back to 558 minimum. And also I think this moves happens before November 1st. Nov to late Dec normally isn't to kind to bears and also we would be in the middle of tech earnings so I don't like to short the market during bullish Seasonality + earnings season. So Let me show you my steps one by one how I come up with my tech homework/trades Step one Identify where your Moving averages Price action Fib levels are Start on daily time frame I like to use my 20/50ma The 20ma resistance will be 599-600 The 50ma support will be 582 Next I add the fib levels on my chart starting from all time high and going back lower to that launch pad at 558.. some people go back further and lower than 558 but those levels aren't ACTIONABLE for day trading or swinging weeklies. I need to know where proce can go for the next 3 sessions or next 3% So fib levels confirm the moving average levels As you can see 601 .786 fib level will match up closely with the 599 20sma Resistance The 579 .382 will match nicely with the 50sma When I say match , what I mean is let's say I short Qqq on a rebound at 599, I would be will to add another put all the way up to its next resistance at 601 if needed and then I could place a 20% loss behind 601. Similar to if I was to buy calls at 582 50sma for a nice bounce, I would be willing to add more calls all the down to 579 gap close or .382 fib with a 20% stop below that.. This method of positioning gives you a back up plan and prevents paper hand trading. Lastly let's look at just price action and trend lines.. For that we'll have to go down the hourly time frame (2hour chart) Some people would argue upon seeing this trendline retest that it's a great buy area, and I would agree short term it may bounce but being up at the weekly trendline I think this summer uptrend gives way this week or next. 1hour chart This is where I just look at price action and volume. I look for areas with a lot of traffic and heavy volume . Going into next week you can see its alot of support at 588 and I circled in green the previous volume that came into that area. Overhead resistance will be the 200sma at 592 and support at 588.. over 593 and 596 comes but I expect Choppy early on between 588-592. For a short I would only look for it below 586.00 , I know 588 is support but this is why fib levels are important for me. 586 is fib support so unless it breaks that then you may get a bear trap dip to 587 then launch back up.. only bearish below 586!!!!!!! What I think will happen this week is a bounce back to 596 minimum and 600 max before we head lower, so unless we gap down below 586 then the move is likely to be upwards early on. If the market gaps up early Monday then wait for a pullback or fizzle out to by calls for a Tues or Wed pop higher. I think we could see a H&S play out if price pushes back to 600 But first we need a pop, in terms of day trading you never want to open short when you see the indexes hourly RSI and Bollingerband oversold. With the exception off thee Qqq idea .. the other trade I like is NASDAQ:NVDA calls for a pop back to 190 Pullback to retest rectangle breakout here at 184.00. I like calls above 185, target 190. Over 190 and 194 comes but have a tight stop over 189 incase it can't go higher. Entry Above 185 Stop loss Below 183.50 Target 190 Catch you all later , my apologies if I'm not too responsive or active lately; I've been busy. In this post I tried to show you how I come up with my idea/ conviction. I use this method on every stock I chart and it actually only takes me 10mins max to chart something and come up with a Tradeable strategy. You have to come up with a method/strategy in trading and charting, then apply this method every day.. you should be charting atleast 3 stocks a day with this method because that's the only way you will become proficient enough to make it. And staring at a chart because you are in a trade doesn't count. This trading and charting thing is more about repetitive discipline than intelligence. If you can't find 30mins a day to fine tune your charting craft then it will be difficult staying in this game
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ContraryTrader
10
QQQ: Bull Trap or Bounce Time? The $593 Line in the SandQQQ is gapping down right into a massive technical test: the $593 Gap Support. This is not a regular drop. Our chart is showing a rare conflict: Bullish Setup: A Hidden Bullish Divergence (HBD) is screaming for a bounce. Bearish Risk: A loss of the low could trigger a rapid descent to the $580 Zone. The bias right now is neutral-bullish — cautious optimism. If bulls hold the gap, expect a short-term rebound toward $603–$605 where sellers will likely re-emerge. But if $593 gives way, this turns into a full-on correction targeting $582 → $560, completing the wedge breakdown target. This is the moment of truth. Bulls need to defend $593 or risk a complete sentiment shift. Key Levels: $603.85 — Breakout Zone $593.24–$597.23 — Gap Support $589.05 — Structural Floor $580–$582 — Breakdown Zone $555–$560 — Rising Wedge Target Bias: 🟡 Neutral-Bullish (Cautious) Timeframe: 1H Indicators: RSI Hidden Bullish Divergence, Rising Wedge Breakdown
NASDAQ:QQQ
by AlchemyMarkets
1
QQQ No Man's LandRising wedge pattern clearly broke to the downside The price is consolidating just below the MTD VWAP, which now acts as resistance (~$600-$601) The lower bound of the wedge (~$596) is being tested; breaking that increases odds of a retest of $589-$590 (prior support from 11 October) RSI (47) is just under neutral, leaning bearish with no strong oversold bounce signal yet Stochastic (≈58) is curling higher, but still mid-range, implying a weak rebound attempt Volume is rising slightly into the close, suggesting distribution, not accumulation The intraday structure is bearish, as long as QQQ stays below $601-$602 Any close above VWAP would invalidate the short-term down bias If $596 breaks, expect acceleration toward $592, then $589 (bottom Bollinger band) If $595 holds & RSI rebounds, you could see a short squeeze back toward $602 before sellers reload The 15m chart shows a rising wedge breakdown, confirming sellers in control short-term The 4H trend remains intact but fragile, with the 50d MA around $599.5-$600 Momentum compression (RSI mid-40s, Stoch flattening) implies a volatile swing into Friday with an expected 1d move ±1.0% (≈$6 range) Implies QQQ could trade between ~$588 & $610 short-term Bearish Path (favored 60%) Fails at VWAP (≈$600-$602) RSI rolls under 40 on 15m chart Next leg to $595 to $590 test Acceleration possible into close Friday Bullish Path (40%) Defends $596, closes >$602 with volume Short squeeze to $606-$608, but likely capped below $610 Still a countertrend rally unless above $610
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Compression CoilThe bulls trying to extend the prior double-bottom rally while bears defend the neckline of a new head & shoulders Volume contraction is key as it means bears haven’t confirmed their pattern yet RSI ≈ 51 is perfectly neutral; momentum flat, but not diverging yet Stoch ≈ 82 is in showing short-term overbought, which often precedes a minor pullback; unless, volume expands upward Volume is declining through right-shoulder formation which suggests indecision, not conviction selling Double-bottom support vs emerging head & shoulders resistance Until $595 or $606 decisively breaks on volume, expect sideways consolidation The edge slightly favors bulls because the neckline hasn’t been challenged with volume RSI & structure still lean constructive 1. Continuation of relief rally; neckline retest from above (55%) Break above $606-$610 2. Rejection & neckline (35%) Test ($595) 3. Controlled fade; could create a larger base (10%) Clean neckline breach Would target $585–$586 quickly; momentum flush
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Momentum TakeawayQQQ is carving out a constructive double-bottom reversal base Needs a confirmed breakout above $604 to unlock $613–$619 upside Structure supports the idea that the market is beginning to self-correct after the tariff-shock overreaction Bullish divergence confirmed; momentum rising while price tests resistance The highest volume occurred during the first bottom (panic flush) & volume at the second bottom was lower (classic exhaustion signal) The right-side rally back to $600 printed increasing volume, suggesting dip buyers are active If QQQ closes above $604 on elevated volume, measured move becomes active with short-term bullish bias toward $613–$618 Panic becomes opportunity once price stability returns
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
2
October 20 - 24 2025 1. Macro Due to the government shutdown inflation-indexed bond data is delayed, however what we are seeing based on data from Thursday (as shown on the white vertical line) suggests that forward inflation expectations $(US10Y+US03MY)/2-DFII10 may be reverting back to the mean, which is supported by TVC:US10Y rising slightly. The long term vs short term yield spread TVC:US10Y -US03MY has tightened and is very close to inverting, which was driven by long term yields plunging last week - a rush to safety. Another long-term bond rally could invert the yield curve, often a risk-off signal if it remains inverted and widens. The dollar is finding support near its average and gold is sitting at all time highs (more on gold later). On the commodity side, Oil NYMEX:CL1! continues to slide, aided by fragile stability in the middle east. My ag/industrial gauge $(COPPER1!+ZC1!)/2/DXY is still elevated but lacks momentum. Nothing interesting to glean here other than the fact that higher commodity prices are not significantly affecting forward inflation expectations (for now). Oil’s continued downtrend is certainly playing a factor, however the pause in Fed data could also make any potential inflationary impact more delayed than usual. When it comes to bonds, watch closely and proceed with caution. 2. FX The dollar index is still well below other currency indices for the year but I have all of the charts on this layout indexed to 100 to show recent relative activity. The dollar TVC:DXY has recently seen stronger performance compared to other currencies, though the others have been on the uptick in recent days . The important takeaway here can be seen on the 10Y yield comparison chart. Since the beginning of October, aside from Japan, buyers have pushed 10Y yields in the US, Eurozone and Britain down. This may suggest a rush to safety due to economic fears beyond just the US. 3. Risk On the top left chart, you can see that the corporate bond option-adjusted spread average (high-yield & investment-grade) could have either peaked or is on the uptick. Since this data is only available at the end of the day, it’s best to proceed with caution. Next, I want to highlight something I recently noticed when comparing the TVC:GOLD chart to its volatility index CBOE:GVZ . Last week while Gold was reaching all time highs, there was heavy buying of AMEX:GLD puts (GVZ was up over +20% on Thursday), which has pushed Gold down on the $GOLD/GVZ spread recently. I have included Gold on the bottom chart and marked the points where the ratio fell far below the standard deviation of (1) as shown via the Keltner Channel indicator on all of the charts. Looking at the previous three points where this extremity occurred, there seems to be some alignment with severe underperformance of S&P 500 Futures vs gold and stock market bottoms. Since asset prices are currently seen as elevated and Gold is close to crossing above the CME_MINI:ES1! return since January 2020, the message this sends to me is that the gold rally is fear-driven rather than fundamentally-driven. Investors are aware that gold may be overstretched and are buying insurance. Fear without fundamentals can quickly become a buying opportunity for equities, especially when continued rate cuts (which in theory should help both Gold and Equities) are taken into consideration. If nothing fundamentally changes, and investors decide to start dumping gold, it would be expected to see equities catch a bid. I’m also continuing to watch $SPY/RSP (SPY vs equal-weight ETF) and $NQ1!/YM1! to assess risk-on vs defensive bias. Right now the momentum towards risk is flat but the Russell TVC:RUT has slid more compared to the other indices recently, suggesting a rotation out of small caps, which supports the bias that both spreads could continue higher in favor of Risk, however that is just an assumption. When looking at specific sectors, despite Consumer Staples ( AMEX:XLP ) finding support, I’m not yet seeing signs that the market is abandoning tech. All of this shows that recent volatility has not changed the market’s sector positioning in a significant way, however keeping an eye on XLP for now will be very important, as it could signal a risk-off day if $XLP/XLK rises strongly. 4. Bias ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) I have changed my approach to trading to be more short-term, so I will not try to draw any weekly conclusions via this chart, however from Friday’s volatility action (lefthand side), it appears we may have seen a peak in near-term volatility last week. I would expect to se some volatility mean reversion on Monday ( TVC:VIX and CBOE:VVIX -VIX may open higher). If the volatility is absorbed by buyers (price is relatively flat or volatility is quickly absorbed by buyers), I think dealers will sell volatility (puts) and buy futures to raise the price of AMEX:SPY . On the other hand, when more bearish factors (as described above) are considered, I can’t help but wonder when looking at the CME_MINI:ES1! chart if futures are forming a top. I would not have a problem playing the bull side if volatility activity suggests dealers are short puts, however if it shows indecision or short call positioning it may be best to sit out or wait for confirmation. -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- Conclusion: Put simply - I am cautiously bullish on stocks. I think the gold volatility is still mostly implied, so it will take a few more sessions before we find out if it will be realized or provide liquidity for more Gold buying. The extreme put buying has me fairly confident that the gold rally will stall out or pull back from around the 4,200 level. Aside from news-related volatility, the only major threat I’m seeing to stocks is that institutions may start to rotate out of tech mega caps AMEX:XLK , communications AMEX:XLC , and consumer discretionary AMEX:XLY into safer sectors like consumer staples AMEX:XLP and healthcare AMEX:XLV . This can be tracked intraday so I will be watching it this week for early clues. $XLK/XLP will be an important gauge to watch, as well as $NQ1!/YM1! and $SPY/RSP for confirmation. I’m not too worried about treasuries either. The lack of data will likely keep yields close to the average, and as I’ve said before, if the TVC:US10Y -US03MY curve inverts because 10Y declines while 3M is flat, it’s the less concerning way it could occur. Corporate bond spreads will be important to watch for a potential risk-off continuation, however that data will only be available once per day. Most importantly, if volatility seems to have peaked (at least in the short term) it will solidify the bullish case. As I hope I’ve explained, I think the market is in a confused and defensive state, even if the situation doesn’t necessarily call for it. US economic data is still on hold so dealers are firmly in control of the narrative. Since dealers prefer to be short gamma on puts, that is the only reason why my bias is slightly bullish. On the contrary, if there is a sudden rush into puts that creates a significant Implied/Historical volatility imbalance, I will not hesitate to take the short side.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ap769
QQQ Early Topping BehaviorShort-term momentum is stretched so watch for a potential pullback to $608 then $603 if selling follows through 1. Price vs MTD VWAP MTD VWAP ≈ $603.7, with +1σ ≈ $611 & +2σ ≈ $613 QQQ is pressing the upper (+2σ) edge of the VWAP envelope & that’s statistically extended Historically, price rarely sustains above this zone without cooling off toward +1σ ($608-$609) or the VWAP itself ($603-$604) Overbought short-term; risk of mean reversion if momentum fades 2. Volume Profile Volume into the close rose sharply, but without broad range expansion That kind of volume spike after an extended move often means distribution (profit-taking at highs) rather than fresh breakout energy The closing volume spike without strong follow-through suggests distribution (smart money selling into strength) That’s also characteristic of the transition from Wave 5 to wave a (meaning the first corrective down-leg may already be starting) Likely aiming for $588-$590 first & potentially $532 over the next 4-6 weeks if the full correction unfolds 3. RSI (15m) RSI ≈ 68 & curling lower from overbought A bearish cross of RSI below its signal line after sitting near 70 is a classic short-term momentum-loss trigger Supports the idea of a pullback or consolidation within 1-2 sessions 4. Stochastic Oscillator Fast %K & %D have both rolled over sharply (≈ 34 & 18) Coming off multiple overbought resets above 80, this steep drop signals short-term exhaustion with traders locking gains 5. Intraday Structure You can see bearish divergence forming where price neared ATHs (~$613.18) while RSI & Stoch made lower highs That divergence plus rejection at +2σ VWAP = early topping behavior on the 15m timeframe Start of wave a Post $613 tag Pullback to $608–$609 +1σ VWAP support Mid-wave a acceleration Next 1-2 sessions Sharp dip to $603-$604 MTD VWAP mean End of wave a Within ~3-5 days $588-$590 Prior breakout base Wave b "bounce" Late this or next week Rebound to $595-$600 Lower high under prior peak Wave c Following weeks Down to $540-$532 61.8% daily retracement
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Probable RetracementThe current leg (mid-2025 onward) is the steepest recovery yet & that slope just broke This indicates a possible mean reversion phase rather than another leg up Steep advance > rounding top > 8-12% correction Then a multi-month basing period before recovery If that rhythm repeats, the current topping area around $613 could imply a pullback to $560-$580 That would be a “standard” correction, not a crisis The red projection mimics the 2024 & mid-2023 patterns that featured a short distribution, decline & support at the previous breakout area The support shelf sits near $580-$585, where prior resistance turned support (June-July 2025) Below $575 would confirm a more durable trend break & that’s where longer-term funds start de-risking Large-scale corrections on this timeframe (daily, spanning 6-12 months) usually take 2-4 weeks to play out from first break to low, followed by a 1-3 week consolidation near the floor So if the current roll continues, your next decisive move window is late October into early November If you’re trading via options, it reinforces using 2-3 week puts since they align with both the short-term structure & this macro corrective window
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Weekly Outlook (Oct 21–25): Bulls Defend the Channel Testing the $616 Resistance Wall 🚀 📆 Daily Chart — Macro Structure and Market Context Market Structure:
The NASDAQ ETF (QQQ) continues to ride a steady ascending channel since March, maintaining a higher-low structure. The recent CHoCH at $583 was followed by a rebound and BOS (Break of Structure) above $600, confirming that the pullback phase has likely completed. Price is now pressing into the upper channel resistance near $611–$616, which coincides with heavy liquidity and prior supply zones. Despite the overhead resistance, the broader structure remains bullish, with price action consolidating in the upper half of the channel — a typical mid-trend continuation behavior. Supply & Demand / Order Blocks: * Demand Zone: $583–$590 (key defended base from last CHoCH). * Mid-Demand Zone: $558–$560 (38% fib + historical OB). * Supply Zone: $611–$616 (upper channel cap and recent BOS level). Indicator Confluence: * 9 EMA > 21 EMA: bullish alignment with widening slope. * MACD: Momentum recovering from midline, histogram expanding positively. * Stoch RSI: Mid-range reset around 43 — plenty of room to rise. * Volume: Rising on breakout days, confirming accumulation. The daily chart suggests a continuation setup with bullish pressure intact. As long as QQQ holds above $600, bulls control the trend toward $616–$620. ⏱️ 1-Hour Chart — Near-Term Trend and Swing Setup Market Structure:
The 1-hour view highlights a strong recovery leg after multiple CHoCH → BOS sequences. Price broke out of a descending wedge and reclaimed the $608–$610 level, a crucial pivot area aligned with gamma resistance. Currently, QQQ is consolidating beneath the $612–$616 resistance wall. A clean breakout with volume could trigger a test of the upper trendline near $620. Supply & Demand / OB Zones: * Demand Zone: $605–$608 (retest area for dip buyers). * Supply Zone: $612–$616 (active resistance zone). Indicator Confluence: * 9 EMA > 21 EMA: bull control intact. * MACD: still strong, histogram shows gradual expansion. * Stoch RSI: hovering near overbought but showing no divergence yet. Trade Scenarios: * Bullish Setup: Buy dips near $606–$608 → Target $616 / $620 → Stop $601. * Bearish Setup: Short rejection at $616 → Target $605 / $600 → Stop $618. A close above $616 opens the door for momentum continuation toward $622–$625, while losing $605 would likely trigger a retest of $590 demand. 🕒 15-Minute Chart — Intraday Scalping Structure Market Structure:
The 15-min chart reveals QQQ’s short-term compression after a morning rally. Price remains within a rising micro-channel but is stalling near resistance at $612–$614. Several BOS patterns confirm trend continuation, while the latest CHoCH at $611.3 marks minor cooling. This looks like a controlled pullback rather than a reversal, with liquidity building around $610. Supply & Demand / OB Levels: * Demand Zone: $608–$610 (intraday support and EMA confluence). * Supply Zone: $614–$616 (scalp resistance). Indicator Confluence: * 9 EMA vs 21 EMA: still trending upward but flattening slightly. * MACD: weakening histogram — possible short-term cooldown. * Stoch RSI: cycling down from overbought, indicating temporary pause. Scalp Plan: * Bullish Bias: Buy near $609–$610 → Target $614 → Stop $607. * Bearish Bias: Short rejection from $614–$615 → Target $609 → Stop $616. Expect small consolidation before breakout. Trend remains bullish until $608 breaks decisively. 📊 GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment The GEX structure shows heavy call positioning at $612–$616, with a clear gamma ceiling near $616 — currently acting as resistance. Below $604 lies the highest liquidity void (HVL) where dealers might provide support. Key GEX Levels: * Highest Positive GEX / Call Wall: $616 (major gamma resistance). * 2nd Call Wall: $613. * Put Wall / Support: $604 and $593 (dealer hedging floors). * IVR: 22.9 — low, suggesting compression and potential volatility pop. * Put/Call Ratio: 48.5% puts — slightly bearish skew but stabilizing. Dealers are in neutral gamma territory, meaning price may grind within $604–$616 until a breakout forces delta hedging momentum in either direction. 🎯 Closing Outlook The broader QQQ structure remains bullish inside an uptrend channel, supported by strong demand zones and recovering momentum indicators. The short-term price action is coiling for a potential breakout above $616 — a key level to watch for momentum confirmation. As long as QQQ holds above $605, the trend bias stays bullish toward $620–$625.
If $604 breaks, expect a deeper pullback to $590 before buyers re-engage. Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage your risk carefully.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
Global Equities in EUR - The 2025 Suprise WinnersLast year, everyone crowded into the S&P 500 trade — “why bother being anywhere else?” One year later, when we look at YTD returns in euros, the picture changes completely 👇 YTD Performance (in EUR) 🇨🇳 FXI (China): +21.7 % 🇪🇺 FEZ (Europe): +16.8 % 🇯🇵 EWJ (Japan): +6.5 % 🇺🇸 QQQ (Nasdaq 100): +7.4 % 🇺🇸 SPY (S&P 500): +3.0 % 🇺🇸 IWM (Russell 2000): –0.3 % The “uninvestable” China market has quietly outperformed every major index. Europe also posted strong gains, while U.S. benchmarks lagged once adjusted for FX. 💡 A reminder that currency and narrative can distort what “performance” really means.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by OrbisInvestment
QQQ Set To Grow! BUY My dear friends, QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 569.48 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 597.36 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AnabelSignals
1
QQQ Resistance - Big pullback or breakout comingAs you can see from the trend lines, we are about to touch resistance. The last two times this happened we got a sizable pullback. During COVID, it was a breakout. QQQ just keeps pushing higher on the AI trade as the bubble just continues to grow. The AI trade is still strong. Right now companies are making massive "deals" (okay, promises) and stocks just keep exploding. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next few weeks.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Dr_Roboto
1
QQQ (10 October)The 50d MA often acts as the first line of defense in bull markets When the price breaks below its intraday high and then reclaims it within 1-3 sessions, it is considered a bullish continuation setup Historically, QQQ tends to bounce 3-5% after reclaiming its 50d MA following a 2-3% flush So if QQQ closes back above $595, it could accelerate through $600–$610 toward prior highs near $615–$620 Today's drop is a retest of intermediate trend support, not a deep structural breakdown
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Ideal Risk FloorThe $568–$582 area aligns with deep Fibonacci support, sentiment washout & historical rebound behavior after tariff shocks - all ingredients for a fast relief rally The market is currently hovering between $582–$589, sitting right above that 78–82% retracement Historically, this acts as a springboard for sharp short-covering rallies; unless, macro fundamentals deteriorate rapidly "China–US Tariffs” marks both the prior and current inflection points - the market clearly prices in trade policy uncertainty aggressively, then reverts once it stabilizes After similar shocks (“Liberation Day” or “Midnight Hammer”), QQQ rebounded 6–9% within 5–10 trading days That would translate now to $615–$640 targets if history rhymes Momentum algorithms will likely trigger buys if QQQ closes back above $595, so that’s the near-term confirmation pivot $580–$585 is the ideal risk floor, while $605–$615 offers a reward window
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Failed PullbackOn a 15m chart, a bullish pennant is usually a 1-3 day setup, with the actual breakout move finishing within the same or next trading session The breakout should occur before price drifts beyond two-thirds of the way to the apex of the pennant If nothing happens after that, it’s likely morphing into sideways consolidation rather than a continuation thrust 1. The “failed pullback” Sometimes what looks like the perfect setup for a fade gets front-run by buyers; especially, in strong index products like QQQ When enough traders expect a dip, the first sign of weakness attracts dip buyers & short covering instead That buying pressure prevents the retrace and squeezes price higher - exactly what forms a pennant breakout 2. Breadth & flows If equal-weight tech (QQQE) & SPY are both firm, algorithmic inflows overwhelm local exhaustion signals That’s what creates those shallow consolidations instead of proper retracements It’s not that the overbought condition vanished - just that the market is digesting through time, not price 3. Where your pullback may still appear The pennant breakout could run into $616-$620 (the measured-move zone) Then a more meaningful pullback could occur back to $610-$608 to retest the breakout area That’s often the second chance entry for traders who expected a dip earlier 4. How to adapt intraday Price >VWAP & holding higher lows Stay neutral-to-long; pullback unlikely yet 5m closes back under VWAP with volume First confirmation of real selling RSI divergence + volume spike at new highs - good cue that the delayed pullback is starting Momentum is stretched The difference is that strength absorbed the selling before it could cascade Watch the VWAP ($604-$606) as the “true mean” since that’s where a genuine pullback would likely target once the breakout exhausts Alphabet is one of the largest weights in QQQ (6-7 %) When it reports after the bell, implied volatility in QQQ options & intraday price movement both spike, often producing head-fakes Even if the pennant breakout looks clean intraday, the move can stall or reverse sharply after hours on the headline A surprise beat could launch QQQ higher in one gap; a miss could invalidate the pattern instantly If you’re trading intraday, tighten your exposure or take partial profits before the close Don’t hold an unhedged position through the report unless it’s sized small enough to handle a gap CPI is the next index-level volatility event The market often “coils” ahead of CPI - exactly the kind of price compression a pennant shows That means the real breakout may not sustain until after the CPI release confirms or challenges inflation trends You can get false starts between now & Friday as traders reposition Treat any breakout between now & Friday morning as range expansion, not confirmation, until post-CPI follow-through appears Pattern still valid, but its resolution is dependent on catalysts The “measured-move” projection ($622-$625) is realistic only if GOOGL’s report & CPI don’t introduce negative surprises Until those hit, expect lower volume & tighter ranges with consolidation inside $609-$613 likely persists QQQ’s bullish pennant is technically sound, but timing is hostage to this week’s catalysts If you trade intraday, keep it mechanical - above $613 bullish, below $610 defensive & be flat or hedged going into tonight’s GOOGL print
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal