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Invesco QQQ Trust

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QQQ's 3rd PillarAAPL is the strongest of the 3 generals since price is holding above it's 20d MA with no meaningful breakdowns since mid-October Higher highs/higher lows intact AAPL is the relative strength leader Pullbacks are still being bought Upside momentum is slowing, but no bearish triggers MSFT cleanly bounce from oversold, but still a repair phase Hit lower Bollinger from the highs in late October Strong rebound off ~$465 Still below its prior support around $520-$530, so this rally is still “inside the correction” This is a reaction rally after a near-vertical flush MSFT is repairing damage, not in breakout mode It’s the “middle child” right now, stronger than NVDA, weaker than AAPL NVDA is the odd one out (weakest) Clear lower highs since the early-November peak Broke down through $195 & failed to reclaim it convincingly Trading below its short-term MA NVDA is objectively the weakest structure, it's trend is broken, momentum pushing down, failed bounce attempts & chart resembles early-stage trend deterioration, not a completed correction All three semis/chips (NVDA) have shown relative weakness lately vs megacap tech (AAPL + MSFT) This aligns with QQQ given rotation inside tech rather than broad risk-on AAPL doesn’t support a bearish tilt (too strong) MSFT is neutral, but slightly bullish short-term NVDA supports a bearish tilt (weak structure, momentum down) QQQ weighting is heavily influenced by AAPL + MSFT, which are not breaking down These charts do not reinforce a clean bearish thesis They show rotation (NVDA weakness), but no index-leader breakdown (AAPL/MSFT still intact) To get a real QQQ rollover, you typically need AAPL + MSFT to crack simultaneously AAPL is the single most important line of defense for QQQ Downside risk only becomes serious if AAPL loses trend with critical Levels at $268-$270 (the rising short-term trend support) & the top of the old consolidation from late October A break would first invalidate momentum, then flip the trend down If AAPL closes <$268, you’re no longer in “bull flag mode,” but in trend reversal territory & QQQ loses its strongest pillar MSFT is the canary for liquidity since MSFT drives a ton of passive flow Its rebound is strong, but it’s a reaction rally inside a broken structure This is the rebound low & the base of the prior breakdown Losing this means the bounce was a dead-cat & confirms a larger down-leg A daily close <$480 signals recovery failed, sellers in control & next level becomes ~$460 That is a meaningful QQQ drag NVDA is already weak NVDA is the weakest chart of the 3 generals It does not have to break down to add downside pressure, but there is a level where selling accelerates sharply, $170-$173, the base of the November flush A close <$170 opens a vacuum to $160 to $150 fast That would be a serious volatility event for QQQ Genuine QQQ downside risk appears only when 2 of the 3 megacaps break, so if these 2 things happen, downside risk is confirmed AAPL closes <$268-$270 MSFT closes <$480-$485 At that point, QQQ loses AAPL’s trend support & MSFT’s liquidity bid NVDA is already structurally weak, so the combined effect is decisive Those two breaks together flip the entire index environment from “bullish trend with rotation” to “index-level breakdown” Alphabet (GOOGL) has been the stealth leadership bid When AAPL & NVDA wobble, Alphabet often becomes the rotational safety valve inside QQQ because it trends cleanly, absorbs passive flows (huge weighting) & attracts “quality growth” buyers when semis weaken This stabilizes QQQ even when one of the top names is soft But here’s the nuance Alphabet’s strength can support QQQ, but it cannot prevent a QQQ breakdown if AAPL or MSFT crack key levels given weighting reality of AAPL + MSFT = ~23-26% of QQQ GOOGL (A + C) = ~8-10% total Alphabet can dampen downside, not cancel it Alphabet’s run-up is a sign of “healthy rotation,” not froth Alphabet’s recent behavior looks like trend accelerating, rising volume on up days, oscillators in a bullish regime but not overcooked & clean support at each pullback This is classic “institutional accumulation” When markets are topping, you don’t typically see new leadership emergences - you see everything stall Alphabet rising while NVDA weakens suggests this is sector rotation, not index distribution It tells you “the market is not in risk-off, but in reshuffle mode" Alphabet’s strength delays downside - it doesn’t prevent it NVDA breaking down is a noticeable drag, MSFT breaking $480 is a real drag & AAPL breaking $270 is an index “air pocket” event Alphabet can counter only 1 of these circumstances, not 2 When the flows in the biggest names turn, Alphabet’s strength becomes irrelevant because passive flows unwind, systematic strategies flip short/flat, correlations compress toward 1 & Alphabet gets sold with the others at that point Alphabet helps explain why QQQ hasn’t rolled over yet This is the key practical takeaway Alphabet’s strength is the reason you’re seeing shallow dips, the reason VIX isn’t reacting much & the reason QQQ keeps getting saved above key levels It’s functioning as a 3rd pillar, replacing NVDA for now, but again, it cannot offset a structural loss of AAPL or MSFT The combined model (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL) If Alphabet stays strong & AAPL/MSFT hold, pullbacks are just noise If Alphabet stays strong, but MSFT breaks $480, QQQ slides, but not violently If Alphabet is strong, but AAPL breaks $270, QQQ drops harder than you expect If Alphabet weakens & either AAPL or MSFT fail, sharp downside becomes likely Alphabet is a stabilizer, not a shield Alphabet’s run-up tells you institutions are still allocating into megacap tech, the market is rotating, not distributing & QQQ won’t break on NVDA weakness alone I t delays downside risk, but does not erase it The real triggers remain AAPL <$270 & MSFT <$480 QQQ is short-term bullish, but not yet a durable trend reversal The 21 November AVWAP has been acting like a dynamic rising support line Price respected it during every hourly pullback Friday’s price extended above it into stretched momentum territory which means buyers have controlled the bounce, but this AVWAP is far from price now so mean-reversion risk increases Both AVWAPs show an extended, overbought bounce with no real test of strength The rally from the 21 November low is steady, one-sided, over-extended, on declining volume, into a major prior supply & without a single higher-volume accumulation candle This looks almost exactly like a corrective rally into resistance, not a fresh impulse trend NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
8
Qqq And tech sectorsI think in the coming week we will see Qqq close gap at 632, there is a chance for a pullback to 618-620 also this week.. I'll explain below how I come to both conclusions.. First The bad : I'll start with The TVC:VIX Fallen wedge here which is bullish for the vix... looks like a minimum bounce back to 17.00 is coming this week.. Max upside if Fomc goes bad is 19.50 -20.00 or 200ma Naturally if the vix spikes you will see a pullback on equities.. If the vix spikes to 17.00 then I think we pullback to 618-620 This pullback would with a break below 622.00 Now if vix spikes back to 20.00, well that's the worst case scenario and that would put Qqq at 611-613 which provides the strongest support 20/50 sma plus price action If qqq breaks below 610 and vix spikes above 23 then the bull rally is over ! I think as long as 613 holds Qqq is going to 640 minimum and 655 max Remember at the end of the day we are dancing with the devil up here at the 15yr resistance Bulls haven't last more than 2weeks up here in the last 2yrs before a 7-15% correction I'm not showing this to confuse you, I'm showing you the bigger picture so you can understand that despite whatever bullish move that happens in the next 2weeks I don't think it sustains through the entire Dec and another sell like what we saw in Nov is around the corner.. Now on to why I feel like qqq is headed to 640-660. First off Qqq is showing a broadening wedge and it has reclaimed its summer channel A descending broadening wedge usually pushes the stock/Index back to its ATH (See iwm) and sometimes higher .. The measured moved goes like so so an 8% move up from the breakout would put Qqq at 660 or 1.618 on fib extension When you look at the 3 biggest sectors AMEX:XLC AMEX:XLK NASDAQ:SMH You'll see similar bullish patterns AMEX:XLC Just broke out of a bullflag in its 3 yr uptrend Bullflag wants to take this sector back to 120 minimum NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:NFLX will pump XLC the most AMEX:XLK Same broadening wedge as Qqq and pretty much same analysis This move up on XLK I think will push NASDAQ:MSFT back to 510.. NASDAQ:SMH Chips Same broadening wedge as Qqq and XLK Actually outperformed most tech Sectors because of Intc , amd and AVGO.. but I think the next leg up comes from NASDAQ:NVDA with a push back to 190ish Now , down to the action/Tradeable analysis.. NASDAQ:QQQ , wait for a move back above 627.00 to go long next week.. target of course is 632 Qqq has been trading for the most part of this rebound in this tight channel in white; Keep an eye out for the resistance Any opening bove 623 is neutral and you could try calls with a stop below 622.00 Things get bullish back above 627 Things get bearish below 622 with a target of 618. 622-627 IS CHOP.. Has a gap left open at 617 and the 1hour 200ma is there too . I know I said below 618 and 612 comes but they could dip for the gap close and push back above.. There is a trade I like going into this week. 1st . NASDAQ:MSFT Weekly chart has given 3 higher lows. Daily chart is showing wedge breakout and retest I think it's headed back to 510 this month which in perspective is only a 5% upside. Above 485 take calls to 492 Above 495 take calls to 510 Simple setup.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ContraryTrader
3
QQQ Retest Into Resistance 1. AW1!/US10Y is a bond market stress gauge This futures-to-UST ratio pushing 27-28 after bottoming near 21 shows a persistent grind higher, which usually reflects firmer demand for risk relative to sovereign debt or a rotation into duration (falling yields) boosting growth-sensitive ratios Since the index is making higher highs, the bond market isn’t signaling stress, but it has climbed quickly & these ratios often mean-revert when momentum stalls No warning yet, but overstretched relative to spring/summer supports QQQ strength unless yields abruptly reverse 2. VIX & COR1M is a volatility pair COR1M is usually higher in times of event risk & they’re nearly identical; implying, vol surface is flat (complacency), or no event premium which means the market pricing very low turbulence A low VIX near 16-17 historically precedes shakeouts, not crashes, but routine pullbacks Given PCE coming Friday, the lack of front-month premium is interesting since it means the market does not fear the print Optionality is cheap, complacency is high so in this environment, QQQ frequently overshoots then reverts quickly 3. QQQ/VXN shows tech risk appetite QQQ/VXN at ~29.3 is high Every major rejection in 2025 happened near similar ratio levels Whenever it dropped toward the 8-10 area, those were panic low points The ratio is now again near upper-bound readings while QQQ is extended above its November anchored VWAP QQQ tends to pull back when its implied-vol ratio reaches these levels (just vol-adjusted exhaustion) 4. NDX/NDXE NDX/NDXE at new highs near +5.4% means mega-caps outperforming the equal-weight index strongly, narrow leadership Breadth at risk of weakening Earlier in the year, the ratio bottomed near -6%, so we’re 12+ points off the lows which is a huge structural rotation into the giant tech names When breadth thins out this much, markets often continue drifting up, but become fragile, making them vulnerable to macro data shocks or rate-expectation flips Strength, but concentration risk is real If yields bounce or VIX wakes up, these narrow rallies unwind fastest AW1!/US10Y trend is intact (risk appetite steady), VIX & COR1M show no fear & NDX/NDXE leadership remains strong (mega-caps still carrying the market) QQQ/VXN is at a historical “exhaustion” Volatility extremely cheap ahead of PCE which signals complacency Breadth is narrowing so this rally is fragile Mild pullback retest ($610-$615) 55% QQQ/VXN elevated, VIX suppressed, breadth narrow Sideways to mild grind up 30% Mega-caps still leading; bonds not flashing risk Sharp continuation breakout 10% Requires dovish PCE + yields breaking lower Deep correction (<$600) 5% No stress signals in VIX, COR1M, or AW1!/US10Y A pullback into $610–$615 is the most statistically likely move & PCE is the catalyst that can either validate the rally (soft print), or trigger the volatility reversion Headline/Core PCE prints below expectations (Market pricing: ~0.2% m/m for both) Soft PCE (0.0-0.1%) Yields drop immediately; rate-cut odds spike QQQ breakout, testing $630-$638 25% Very soft shock (0% + downward revisions) Large drop in yields; USD falls QQQ surges, possible new ATH behavior 5% QQQ is already stretched so upside reaction may fade Inline PCE (0.2%) is consensus 1. Inline, Goldilocks Minor yield drift; VIX barely moves Sideways or slight drift up to $625-$632 25% 2. Inline, but revisions hotter Algo knee-jerk down, then fades Pullback to $612-$616 then mean reversion 10% This is the most likely, but because positioning is stretched, even inline data can trigger a small shakeout Hot PCE (0.3%) or slightly above expectations Mild upside miss (0.3%) Yields pop; VIX lifts from complacent levels QQQ immediate dip to $610-$615 20% Sticky services strength Market interprets “Fed won’t cut early 2026” Volatility expansion, QQQ drops to $605-$610 5% This aligns with a stretched QQQ/VXN & narrow NDX/NDXE breadth Hotter/bad PCE (≥0.4%) is the tail risk 0.4%+ surprise Sharp yield spike; VIX 1-2 pts higher QQQ breaks wedge to $598-$605 7% 0.5%+ shock Markets start repricing full Q1/Q2 cuts are gone QQQ cascade to $585-$593 3% Low probability, but highest downside convexity The 15m chart shows that the bearish setup is more developed, more mature & now technically actionable, but still missing one final trigger Unless the retest invalidates, the bias is now tilted to the downside The $618-$620 neckline is the decision point A break of $618 suggests an active target = $612 to $610 Bulls aren’t fully in control, but bears don’t win yet A break above $623.5 invalidates the topping pattern Unlikely right now based on momentum & volume 1. Five sessions ago Bearish odds ~10-15% 2. Three sessions ago Bearish odds ~25-30% 3. Yesterday Bearish odds ~40% 4. Now i) Bearish scenario ($612-$610) 55% This is now the base case ii) Chop between $620-$623 35% Because bulls remain “not broken,” but not advancing iii) Bullish breakout above $623.5 10% Momentum doesn't support this upside move Bears now have the advantage (technically) Bearish trigger at $618 Once $618 breaks, $610 becomes the high-probability magnet
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
5
QQQ Short Term Cycle Nearing End; Pullback to Attract BuyersThe short-term Elliott Wave outlook for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) indicates that the cycle from the April 2025 low remains active. Wave (4) of the ongoing impulse concluded at 580.27, and the ETF has since resumed its upward trajectory. To confirm continuation, price must break above the prior wave (3) peak recorded on 30 October at 638.41. The rally from the 21 November wave (4) low has matured and is expected to complete soon, reflecting the natural rhythm of the Elliott Wave sequence. The advance from wave (4) has unfolded as a five-wave impulse. Within this structure, wave ((i)) ended at 586.25, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) that terminated at 580.36. From there, the ETF nested higher. Wave (i) of the next sequence ended at 596.98, while wave (ii) pulled back to 589.44. Momentum carried wave (iii) to 606.76, before wave (iv) corrected to 597.32. The final leg, wave (v), reached 619.51, completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree. A subsequent pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 612.13. Looking ahead, wave ((v)) of 1 is expected to finish soon. Afterward, a corrective wave 2 should unfold, addressing the cycle from the 21 November low before the ETF resumes higher. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 580.27 remains intact, dips are anticipated to find support in a 3, 7, or 11 swing sequence, reinforcing prospects for further upside.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
QQQ (5 December)When QQQ tops on the daily timeframe, you typically see upper-band overextension, multiple rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, a clear lower high formation, EMA breakdown & shrinking momentum + rising volatility, but the chart shows the opposite Price bounced cleanly off the mid-band & is riding the upper half of the Bollinger channel This is continuation behavior - not reversal structure The daily trend is intact and healthy No close below the mid-Bollinger (20d MA) No sharp mean reversion No violation of October low structure Higher lows since the pivot around $589 This is an uptrend, with no technical evidence of topping $637 is the ATH QQQ rarely tops on the first retest It either i) consolidates under resistance & then breaks, or ii) fakes a small dip & then breaks The current setup shows controlled expansion, trending conditions, no volatility spike, smooth adherence to mid-band support & higher highs forming inside the bands This is bullish The last candle is green, closing near the upper band with solid volume & QQQ closed above $625 - a higher high vs last week, which suggests continuation, not distribution 1. Breakout attempt toward $630-$635 60% Trend + position in band favors upside 2. Pullback to $620-$615 before breaking higher 30% Standard retest of mid-band structure 3. Deep reversal toward $580 10% No topping pattern; requires macro shock
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Is QQQ topping?The 4H chart shows a clean breakout retest attempt as price is now testing the $625 resistance, the same area that previously rejected multiple times, but this time the backdrop is different RSI shows no bearish divergence & sits at ~63 (bullish, but not overbought) which supports continuation upward, not rejection Stoch is overbought, but embedded (staying >80) - typical of trending moves & this usually precedes a breakout, not a reversal MACD shows a bullish cross with an expanding histogram while the MACD line is curling upward, not flattening Price structure strongly favors an upside push into $630-$637 The 4H candles show higher lows, higher highs, strong impulsive green sequences & controlled pullbacks with shallow retracements This is not corrective price action - it’s impulsive Immediate resistance is $625.50 so a break and 4H close above = $630 test likely within 1-2 sessions Bullish thesis remains intact unless $618 (primary support) breaks Ultimately, $605-$607 must hold for a broader uptrend above the recent highs to +$640 Right now price sits at $622-$625, well above these key levels A breakout attempt is coming with an immediate targets of $630 & $637 We have an expected inline PCE today, FOMC next week (likely signaling 2025 cuts) & seasonality (December is historically bullish) This is when a rally should ignite As long as QQQ trades above $618 and especially above $611, bulls remain in control Probability of testing $630-$637 before 19 December is higher than failing $618 (~55%) A daily close above $637 invalidates the a-b-c bearish path & confirms wave (5) is underway Upside targets are $692 (Fib 123.6%) & $726 (Fib 138.2%) These align with historical QQQ extensions during Fed pivots This is the scenario the current macro narrative supports with PCE likely inline, Fed likely signals rate cuts for 2026, yields easing & seasonality strong The current bounce is wave (b) with wave (c) next only if wave (4) is not complete If that happens, downside targets cluster include $586 (Fib 78.6%), $560 (Fib 100%) & $547 (Fib 61.8% of entire rally) Probability of deeper a-b-c correction is ~45%, lower if Fed confirms a pivot next week QQQ is between bullish continuation vs bearish retrace for max frustration 1. Bullish wave (5) 55% $637-$650+ Highly favorable 2. Sideways/Chop 15% $615-$625 Theta pain, but not dead 3. Bearish wave (c) 30-35% $586-$560 Call loses value Because we haven’t broken $618 & macro is supportive, wave 5 has the edge right now QQQ is riding the middle Bollinger band upward Rejected the lower band (18-21 November) Reclaimed the 20d MA Is now trending upward along the mid-band This is a post-pullback continuation trend, not a topping structure & is bullish until the middle band is lost Price is likely to push toward the upper band, which right now aligns with $632-$637 Before the November drop bands were wide, volatility high, contraction & a trend shift, but now, bands are narrowing slightly, but the upper band is tilting upward, not flat Flat upper band = consolidation Rising upper band = trend continuation The chart shows rising upper band or bullish drift with breakout potential QQQ is currently not touching the upper band, not forming topping wicks, not showing distribution volume, so this means no exhaustion, room for upside & momentum still building f price were already slamming the upper band repeatedly, that'd be a warning, but it’s sitting comfortably between the bands & trending upward without overheating Everything on this daily chart supports continuation into $630+ over the next 5-10 sessions
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Short-Term RoadmapThe 15m chart shows 3 things with absolute clarity 1. Rising wedge • A clean candle through wedge support • A retest attempt that failed • Follow-through selling • High-volume breakdown bar 2. Double top at $619-$620 • Top 1 rejection • Top 2 rejection • Neckline broken • Pattern validated • The double top + wedge combo gives strong short-term downside momentum 3. Momentum confirms the breakdown • RSI sloping down, under its average • Stoch rolling over from mid zone • No bullish divergences • No failed breakdown behavior • This is genuine intraday weakness Short-term downtrend on the 15m is active & should continue toward support, ~$604 • This target is not arbitrary - it has extremely strong confluence • Rising wedge measured move • Double-top measured move • AVWAP (21 November) ≈ $603-$605 • Daily pivot support zone • 50d MA ~$604 • Largest VPVR volume node (HVN) $602-$610 • Fair-value of the entire multi-week range Every timeframe and every tool points to $604-$610 as the magnet • The market is heading directly toward it • This 15m breakdown is simply the path into it Volume confirms this is real selling • The breakdown candle has higher volume • Volume increased from baseline • Not holiday drift, not thin liquidity • True supply entered at the top • This validates the move Short-term is bearish until ~$604-$610 is hit • This is a normal pullback into support The larger trend remains bullish because price is above all major MAs (20d/50d/100d/200d) • Macro shifted bullish (rate-cut odds jumped) • Daily trend structure is intact • 4H MACD still bullish • Daily RSI still rising This 15m breakdown is corrective within an uptrend • Follow-through toward ~$610 • Liquidity sweep of the wedge target ~$604-$606 • Bounce attempt from $604-$610 • The market will try to reclaim $612-$615 • If it succeeds, trend resumes toward $620+ • If it fails → next test is $600-$603 Bullish continuation remains intact above $610, while warning signals appear below $610 & a break of $605 • Both still compatible with larger bullish structure Bearish shift (deeper correction risk) • Break below $600 • Bearish confirmation with a break below $590 • This would signal a structural break on the daily timeframe; however, right now we are nowhere near those lower levels The 15m chart shows a real, clean breakdown, valid bearish patterns, selling into the highs & momentum rolling over • A short-term move toward ~$604-$610, but this is a normal pullback in a strong daily uptrend & larger trend remains bullish • $604-$610 is key • Expect a bounce attempt there • No evidence yet of a trend reversal • No evidence of a larger correction unless $600, then $590 break • This is exactly how strong markets correct
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ (28 November)November's monthly candle is closer to a hanging man than a hammer, but the context determines whether it’s actually bearish, since a true hanging man requires 1) a long lower shadow (yes), 2) a small real body near the top of the range (yes) & 3) appears after a strong uptrend (definitely yes) The candle is bearish only if the next candle confirms with a break below the low A hammer has the same shape, but appears after a downtrend , which is not the case here So structurally it matches a hanging man, not a hammer, but a hanging man is a weak signal on higher timeframes without confirmation The setup appears neutral-to-risky, but not confirmed bearish The close is still strong, near the top of the range There’s no follow-through since November just ended Momentum (RSI/stoch) are cooling, but not rolling over Price is still well above the 20 SMA Historically on QQQ, monthly hanging man candles often lead to nothing unless the next month breaks the prior month’s low The signal is warning, not reversal The long-term structure is still upward The 20 SMA around $516 is the first major support in a correction Price at ~$619 is massively extended above all long-term trend baselines This makes a blow-off or exhaustion candles more likely Big wicks more common Long-term risk higher than short-term risk, but none of this says “trend over" The November candle is has bearish potential, not confirmed bearish The up trend is strong which reduces the reliability of reversal patterns SMAs are flattening, but not breaking so long-term uptrend fully intact Confirmation is missing, or not yet realized Trend is still bullish & the candle is just noise at the top of an extended move If QQQ breaks below the low of that monthly candle in December (~$590), it would confirm the hanging man & open a deeper retrace toward the 20 SMA (~$516) If next month stays above the low, the hanging man is invalid & the trend continues
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
14
QQQ End of a Corrective Bounce?The Thanksgiving bounce was real & technically healthy with a sharp V-reversal off ~$585 Buyers regained key MAs (20d & 50d), oscillators turned upward & price broke out of the panic low without resistance Last week’s action built a tight coil under a clear ceiling & this type of setup often resolves after a catalyst (FOMC) QQQ is at a true inflection point - not obviously topping, not clearly breaking out Both a pullback or breakout are technically reasonable A pullback is possible given stretched momentum, thinning volume, clear resistance $631-$637, many components are strong, but not surging & other short-term exhaustion signals which makes a risk of fade technically credible A breakout is still possible because the trend structure is intact, buyers defended every dip for 2 weeks, short-term AVWAPs are rising under price (support) & no reversal signals so the market tends to drift upward into events The most realistic path is a slow grind into $630-$633 early this week & after FOMC, the market chooses its path If buyers don’t have conviction, then a pullback toward $612 to $605 If buyers get a catalyst, then a breakout above $637 A “bounce into FOMC & then fade” base case is completely supported by the charts, but it’s not the only valid outcome A breakout remains technically possible if $637 is reclaimed with volume QQQ’s Thanksgiving rally carried into last week’s consolidation & the index is now poised at resistance in a balanced, technically neutral state so it can push higher into the $630-$633 early in the week, but the real move (pullback or breakout) will be decided after FOMC Wave 5 & Wave b often look similar until one key level is broken or held & right now, price is where both counts remain technically valid & that’s why I feel at a loss - it's ambiguous by nature, but there are precise levels that resolve the ambiguity 1. Price must break above the prior high at $637.01 with no exceptions Wave 5 must make a higher high relative to wave 3 2. Wave 5 should show expanding candles, improving breadth & stronger volume on the push through resistance bands Right now the move out of wave a is corrective-looking & wave 5 often starts with corrective back-testing; however, it has the look of an a–b–c upward correction, not a start of a new leg higher & this is a yellow flag for the bull case 1. If price rejects at resistance, wave b is confirmed & wave 5 is invalidated Price often stops exactly at the 78.6-82% retrace, which is common for wave b peaks Price should fail below $632-$637, then break $600-$605 & possibly accelerate lower to $570 2. If price closes above $637, then wave 5 is confirmed, period 3. If price rejects $630-$637 & breaks below $612, then the wave b path is confirmed This is the most important support on the chart Break $612 & the bounce was corrective so wave c is next The bounce up from wave a low looks much more like a wave b correction than a wave 5 start given the retracement depth (~78.6%) fits wave b perfectly, declining volume, stretched oscillators without trend confirmation & price pinned under major resistance Wave 5 usually doesn't start with weak volume & overlapping candles, but wave b rallies often do We don't confirm the wave b top until the market breaks support Structurally, the chart is sound & doesn't violate any hard Elliott rules A wave b often retraces 61.8-78.6%, or sometimes 100% of wave a The current rally is sitting just below the 78.6-82% ($630-$632) & may even tag $637 if the market pushes into the event/catalyst Wave c unfolds in 5 clean subwaves, often in a move parallel to wave a & usually lands near the 61.8% retrace of the prior impulse A realistic target is $560-$575 The wave c target around $572 is reasonable if the correction continues 0.618 × wave a (~32 points) 1 × wave a (most common, ~52 points) 1.618 × wave a (during strong, sharp corrections, ~84 points) $572 is between the 0.618 & 1 projections for wave c Lands almost perfectly on the 50% retracement of the entire wave 3 advance
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ Structured Bullish Scenario • Compression Into MA Support📌 Asset: QQQ — Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ ETF) 🔎 Style: Swing / Day-Trade Profit Playbook 🎨 Theme: Bullish Pullback Setup using Triangular Moving Average + Layered Entry Strategy 📈 Bullish Pullback Plan — “Thief Layering Strategy” Edition 🕵️‍♂️💰 QQQ is pulling back into a Triangular Moving Average zone, forming a clean bullish reaction area. Price behavior shows controlled momentum, healthy retracement, and a potential continuation toward the upper supply zone. To keep it fun — Thief OG Style is included but in TradingView-permitted language and friendly terms. 🎯 Entry Plan (Layered Limit Entries — “Thief Style but TV-Friendly”) Using a layered entry method (multiple limit orders placed at different levels to reduce average cost and control risk): Buy Limit Layer 1: 605 Buy Limit Layer 2: 610 Buy Limit Layer 3: 615 Buy Limit Layer 4: 620 (Traders may increase or reduce the number of layers based on their own strategy and risk tolerance.) 🛑 Stop Loss (Risk Control Zone) 📍 Proposed Risk Level: 600 This is shared for educational insight only — every trader must select their own SL depending on risk appetite. 🎯 Target Zone (Resistance + Police Force Zone 🚓😆) Projected upside target: 650 The resistance zone has strong reaction history + signs of overbought conditions + possible liquidity traps. So take profit smartly and exit with gains before “police force” catches late buyers. (Again: this TP is optional — traders should decide their own TP levels.) 📚 Market Context & Correlation Watchlist 🔍🌐 QQQ is heavily correlated with major US tech indices & megacap tech stocks. Watching related pairs helps understand volatility, liquidity shifts, market strength, and trend momentum. 🔗 Related Pairs to Watch (Cross-Checks & Correlation Insight) 💠 NASDAQ:NDX / PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 Direct parent index of QQQ Moves almost identically Great for trend confirmation 💠 SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Broader market risk sentiment If SPY + QQQ align in bullish direction → strength confirmed 💠 TVC:VIX Volatility meter Lower VIX supports bullish continuation 💠 NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:GOOGL These top components control majority of QQQ weighting Bullish tech megacaps = higher probability QQQ reaches target 💠 TVC:DXY (Dollar Index) Strong USD = pressure on equities Weak USD = supportive for QQQ rallies 💠 NASDAQ:TLT / US10Y Bond yields inverse to growth stocks Falling yields can provide additional bullish fuel for QQQ 🧠 Key Technical Points 🛠️🔥 Triangular MA acting as dynamic support Healthy pullback with controlled selling Layering entries reduces average cost & improves RR Resistance zone at 650 aligns with prior structure Megacaps still holding bullish bias Volatility decreasing → favorable for continuation ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” ⚠️ Disclaimer This is a thief-style trading strategy just for fun. #QQQ #NASDAQ #ETF #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #TriangularMA #LayeringStrategy #LimitOrders #MarketAnalysis #TradingPlaybook #USMarkets #Stocks #TraderLifestyle #Investing #BullishSetup #TrendContinuation #RiskManagement #ChartAnalysis
NASDAQ:QQQ
by The-Thief
QQQ VWAP Based EntriesWhen price moves from below to above an AVWAP decisively, it signals short covering & a shift in control from sellers to buyers & when 2 or more AVWAPs converge liquidity concentrates, reversals or breakouts often happen there & these are the spots where traders take reversal trades, breakout entries, or stop placements Right now, the 3 & 21 November AVWAPs are separated, meaning trend strength When they converge, it signals compression 1. Using AVWAPs as a dynamic stop-loss is one of the simplest & most effective uses If you're long above the 21 November AVWAP, the rising blue AVWAP is your dynamic stop A close below it should signal an exit It reflects the average buyer cost basis, not arbitrary price levels 2. An AVWAP is a useful trend filter Price above rising AVWAP(s) suggests a long bias Price below falling AVWAP(s) suggests short bias When price chops around a flattening AVWAP, stay out AVWAP is a trend health indicator 3. AVWAP + candlesticks = clean entry signals The strongest signals come when price pulls back into an AVWAP, prints a small reversal candle (hammer, doji, engulfing) & ATR is declining (just like now) since these become high-quality continuation entries As a high-level playbook, anchor VWAPs at major pivots (highs, lows, breakdowns, earnings gaps), trade pullbacks into rising AVWAPs during uptrends & trade rejects from falling AVWAPs in downtrends Use converging AVWAPs as inflection points Use the nearest rising AVWAP as your stop Anchor to the close if the candle represents an event you want to capture (breakout, breakdown, a clear reversal bar, a candle where closing price indicates the market's verdict, earnings, FOMC, etc) Anchor to (H+L+C)/3 (the “typical price”) when you want a smoothed, less-biased VWAP for longer-term structures or swings Typical price reduces noice from intraday spikes & avoids sensitivity to one extreme print or over-reaction to the tails on the candle (AVWAP from swing highs/lows or the start of a trend) Price is above all AVWAPs This means all meaningful “cost basis cohorts” are beneath price The market is structurally repaired, at least in volume-weighted terms Overhead resistance from anchored supply does not exist right now This is a very different situation from when AVWAPs are stacked above price The ATH AVWAP is rising & firmly below price This is one of the best signs of long-term trend health in AVWAP analysis When the ATH AVWAP is rising, decisively reclaimed & acting as near-term support, it usually tells you the prior correction has been fully absorbed Longs from the top are no longer underwater Selling pressure from those prior buyers is neutralized Trend followers using AVWAP logic have flipped their filters back to “risk-on” This is an objective, mathematical read & not a prediction The 3 & 21 November AVWAP are now support layers 3 November (red) are breakdown-day sellers who are now underwater & this is a bullish dynamic because they can’t apply pressure 21 Nov (blue) are capitulation low buyers, still profitable & in control - primary support Together, these form a layered support around $605-$612, or the area where dip-buyers have historically stepped-in A stop-loss location for AVWAP-based trading systems Now that price is above all 3 major AVWAPs, the focus shifts to behavior around the ATH AVWAP & since price is above it already, there are only 2 meaningful reads 1. Bullish continuation setup 2. Price may pull back to the ATH AVWAP ($618) Find buyers (hammer, doji, small-range reversal) & then move away This is one of Brian Shannon’s highest-probability setups (reclaim AVWAP → pullback → higher low → continuation) Potential warning setup because trend deterioration begins with this move Price closes below the ATH AVWAP Then stays below it for multiple sessions Slope begins to flatten or roll over This would be your first objective sign that the trend is losing strength from an anchored-volume standpoint The chart shows the exact 3 level anchored VWAP system that institutional traders use A correction-low AVWAP (21 November) A breakdown-event AVWAP (3 November) A structural high AVWAP (ATH) This lets you map out short-term trend control (blue), intermediate-term supply absorption (red) & higher-timeframe trend health (gray) & right now, all of them say the same thing Price is in a state of repaired, orderly trend with all major AVWAPs providing support beneath ATH AVWAP Defines trend health at the highest timeframe visible on your chart Swing traders, late buyers at the highs, trend-following algos When price is above the ATH AVWAP then the uptrend is structurally intact When price is below it then long-term players are underwater, trend is suspect QQQ is above the ATH AVWAP (~$618) This means that ATH buyers are profitable again The first high-quality pullback often tags this line in early trend repair phases A reclaim → retest → hold sequence is extremely bullish behavior 3 November breakdown AVWAP Tracks sellers from major breakdowns or panic candles Funds that sold into weakness, systematic risk-off flows If price is above it then that entire selling cohort is underwater These traders become forced buyers on pullbacks or breakouts AVWAP ~$610 Price is above it then supply from that breakdown is absorbed This AVWAP becomes support on deeper pullbacks If price tags it then watch for immediate dip-buying 21 Nov AVWAP - capitulation Tracks the cost basis of buyers who stepped in at the emotional low Aggressive reversal traders, deep-value algos, CTA re-leveraging This is the most important rising support line in the model When price is above it, the reversal cohort is still in control A close below it often signals trend exhaustion AVWAP ~$605 Price is well above it & the slope is rising aggressively As long as price respects this AVWAP, the recovery trend remains clean If price pulls back to it then this is a high-odds rotation/continuation buy point Long-Term AVWAP This is the long rising AVWAP on your chart (~$592) It acts as deep trend support The line separating bull vs bear structure The highest timeframe “fair value” of the entire trend leg A tag here marks trend reset, not breakdown A break below this layer shifts the market into caution This long AVWAP is safely under price so the long-cycle trend remains intact When all layers are stacked in ascending order like this, you get a fully aligned bull structure, clean pullback architecture, no overhead VWAP resistance, multi-cohort profit alignment & strong continuation behavior This model is about control, not prediction & right now, the bullish alignment is simply a fact of structure These levels come directly from how institutions trade AVWAPs 1. ATH AVWAP (~$618) is the light pullback, common after a fast push off a low Signals to watch for include a hammer/doji at the AVWAP Lower wick rejection ATR contraction & reversal Reclaim → hold → push This is the first layer most swing traders buy 2. 3 November AVWAP (~$610) This is the mid-depth pullback It’s usually triggered when short-term longs trim Expect a strong buyer reaction 1-2 days of stabilizing candles Momentum traders stepping back in This is a very strong continuation level in AVWAP systems 3. 21 November AVWAP (~$605) This is the high-value dip This line is VWAP traders’ favorite It represents the true reversal cohort’s cost basis It has been respected perfectly It rises steadily each day It marks the “line of trend continuation” If price reaches this AVWAP, this is often the highest-probability buy in the entire structure Rejecting here = trend continuation Closing below = trend fatigue 4. Long-Term AVWAP (~$592) This is the deep reset, not a casual dip If price ever hits this momentum is gone, trend is resetting, higher timeframe traders reassess, hedge funds rotate & isk allocation shifts This is not a breakdown, but it is a significant tone-change You rarely see this tested unless markets enter a broader digestion phase Given the current AVWAP spacing & slope $618 (ATH AVWAP) is highly actionable $610 (3 November AVWAP) is a strong level $605 (21 November AVWAP) is an institutional-grade support When price is above all 3, VWAP traders don’t look for tops - they monitor control transitions
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
QQQ (US100 – USTECH – NQ) WEEKLY PREDICTION - (08 DEC)QQQ (US100 – USTECH – NQ) WEEKLY PREDICTION 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment remains bullish, supported by expectations of a potential FED rate cut in December. Additionally, Trump’s likely nominee for the next FED Chair Kevin Hassett, a strong advocate of aggressive rate cuts has strengthened this bullish outlook. Markets have already begun pricing in the possibility of earlier and more aggressive cuts throughout 2026, fueling continued upside momentum. 📈 Technical Analysis QQQ is strongly bullish at the moment. In my opinion, as long as SPY continues pushing toward all time highs, QQQ is unlikely to experience any meaningful retracement. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I expect QQQ to reach 629 this week at minimum. A strong move may occur right after the market opens however, since the FED decision will be released on Wednesday, the early part of the week may show some choppy or ranging price action. 💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available. ⚠️This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
QQQ Trading Opportunity! SELL! My dear friends, QQQlooks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 619.15 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 609.75 Recommended Stop Loss - 623.82 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
2
QQQ ATH in for awhileIn a related posted, looked at ATH on Oct 29th. That has held so far. Now looking at the next phase. It looks like we have a 3-3-3-3-3 leading diagonal. I'm looking for a pop anywhere from 610 to 625, maybe get the first bear gap, maybe both? It depends on how the first pullback My assumption is 616 at least, gives bulls a breakout, potential retest, then drop from there. Possibly test the bear gap at 626. Marking this as a short for beginning of Dec after. How the next couple weeks go!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by stsmurf
1
QQQ The Road Not TakenA trend reversal requires a higher high, followed by a higher low that holds & a second higher high - it needs that staircase Sell volume should decline on dips & buy volume should rise on bounces QQQ did see rise in volume on the reclaim of the 50d MA & that leans bullish, but we need to see if that continues into Monday-Tuesday The bounce off the October low above the POC to the VAH usually leads back inside the range again The market is not trending as participants reset inventory There is a no structural higher-high sequence Higher timeframe moving averages (20d/50d) still overhead/flat No major volume climax that signals accumulation This is exactly what we’d expect in the middle of a range The bounce off VAL is meaningful, but the strength of the reclaim hasn't printed a higher low & QQQ hasn't broken above VAH with acceptance Price needs to break above the VAH & consolidate above it (not just wicks/intraday spikes) to cause a trend reversal Actual acceptance above value Calling it a reversal leads to chasing the top & misses shorting the strongest part of the move Price is testing the 4H downtrend line for the 4th time & downtrend lines become stronger each time they’re respected, but the 4th-5th hit is also where they often break, so this is a real inflection point - price is now at the perfect point to fail This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal QQQ is in a transitional phase with a potential reversal setup, contingent on holding a very specific level The recent rally pushed above the prior swing lower-highs & that’s the first requirement of a reversal; however, we do not yet have a higher low The pullback after breaking above those highs hasn’t printed a clean, confirmed higher low & until that happens, no one can classify this as a trend reversal This is early-stage reversal behavior, not confirmation This chart has one single number that tells you everything, the upper red shelf of the volume profile (~$620) If QQQ closes above it & accepts, the trend reversal is active If QQQ rejects it & slips back under the 50d MA QQQ is at the doorstep of a trend reversal Whenever 2 anchored VWAPs converge, it almost always precedes a breakout if buyers win the retest, or a rejection and full revisit of lows if sellers win The 10 October AVWAP acted as resistance during the entire decline & is a “memory line” for sellers QQQ just pressed into it again, but hasn't cleanly reclaimed it The 21 November AVWAP is rising, respected & acting as support on the last two pullbacks, which is constructive Momentum is supportive, not conclusive RSI broke its own downtrend line, but hasn’t made a structural higher high & is sitting right under the midline resistance zone Stochastic fast %K turned sharply upward, is overbought, but in emerging trends this stays overbought It's not yet rolling over, so buyers still have short-term momentum Volume on the bounce is higher than the prior 2 declining sessions which supported the reclaim of the short-term VWAP, not capitulation volume, but does not need to be for a structural inflection The absence of heavy sell volume after tagging the 10 October VWAP is noteworthy That VWAP usually triggers a strong sell reaction, but this time it didn’t QQQ is directly between long-term sellers (10 October AVWAP) & newly established buyers (21 November AVWAP) That’s how reversals start, but also how traps form This is a decision point, not a trend QQQ is right up against the boundary that will define the next 2 weeks A break and close above 10 October AVWAP signals sellers are done A break above $612-$614 (prior swing high) confirms structural reversal (higher high) A retest 10 October AVWAP, hold, then push higher is the “acceptance” signal Above that, bulls have full control and this becomes a trend reversal Look for a sharp rejection off 10 October AVWAP, it's a classic continuation down move Lose 21 November AVWAP on a close & this would confirm the bounce was just rotational Break below $588-$590 kills the higher-low structure that is forming Based on the 4H chart, it slightly favors the bullish side as of now because buyers are defending their AVWAP with real activity, sellers failed to slam price at the first test of their AVWAP, momentum flipped from negative to neutral-bullish & price is curling upward into resistance with higher lows, but a failure at the 10 October AVWAP turns this into an immediate downside rotation If AVWAP breaks, entry on acceptance above 10 October AVWAP with a stop under 21 November AVWAP for a target back to $620 & maybe $628 (range highs) If rejection triggers, short the rejection wick off 10 October AVWAP with a stop above AVWAP for a target $596 to $590 & maybe $583 It's a holiday week ahead of Thanksgiving & that context matters a lot for how you read every signal on your charts right now because holiday-week flows around Thanksgiving have very specific, repeatable market behaviors that can completely distort what looks like a trend reversal or breakdown Liquidity is fake or thin & signals look stronger Market depth is shallow High-frequency participants step back Dealers provide less size Futures markets lead cash markets Volume shrinks, but ranges don’t necessarily shrink This creates exaggerated up-moves A small amount of buying can march price up through multiple levels. Exaggerated down-moves A single aggressive seller or macro hedge can flush price 1-2% with no real follow-through Neither is “real” since it’s the effect of thin books So those VWAP interactions, those higher low attempts & even that 50d reclaim are all valid structurally, but they’re not confirmed until we see them in normal liquidity This is why the reversal/rotation distinction is fuzzy The market isn’t trading at full signal strength Thanksgiving week historically favors upside drift Indices tend to float upward into the holiday as funds dress books, shorts de-risk & dealers maintain positive gamma No new major economic releases No new institutional rebalance flows This is not a “trend reversal” - it’s mechanical upward drift QQQ fits this perfectly A bounce off value Grind up toward overhead VWAP resistance Momentum oscillators improving Volume profile resistance approached, not broken This is classic pre-holiday digestion The real test comes the week after Thanksgiving The key levels (especially those anchored VWAPs) almost never resolve during this week The real outcome shows up when liquidity returns, funds resume normal size, post-holiday rebalance flows hit, options positioning resets & macro traders put risk back on If the breakout is real then it confirms next week If it was fake then it rejects hard early next week That’s why this week often produces false starts Price is moving, but the information value is low - the moves are real, but the signal is not
NASDAQ:QQQ
by pakoumal
14
AI Bubble? Or Risk of a Flash Crash.New Technology that is used too soon and or improperly used before it is fully tested and regulated is, historically, the cause of every prior Flash Crash. Flash Crashes are not just on the 3 major indexes but also occur on individual stocks, Stock Derivatives, Sectors, and Industries. New Technology Bubbles form at the END of a Long Term Great Bull Market. This bull market is only 2+ years old and the technical patterns confirm: there is no bubble. There is uncertainty, misuse of AI, AI mistakes and errors in analysis, AI misinterpretations, and AI making up an answer when it can't find data on that topic. The sideways trend that the indexes and many stocks are in right now is a short term to intermediate term correction that is quickly patterning out any excessive speculation. At this time speculation and gambling mode trading by retail groups and smaller funds managers has evporated. The sideways trend is common. The stock market of today trends sideways more often than uptrending or downtrending.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
6