NASDAQ (US100) Analysis:The Nasdaq index showed a notable recovery yesterday but declined today toward the support zone at 24,475, which is a potential rebound area.
🔻 If 24,475 breaks and holds below, the price is likely to retest the lower support zone at 24,000, which remains the preferred scenario for now.
🔺 If a rebound occurs from the current support, the index may rise to test the resistance zone at 24,780, and a breakout above it would confirm a return to the bullish trend.
📉 Best Sell Zone: Below 24,470 (confirmation of breakdown)
📈 Best Buy Zones: Upon confirmation of rebound from 24,480 or 24,000
Trade ideas
US100: Potential reversal from overbought zone
Symbol: SKILLING:US100
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Indicators: OB/OS Overlap (RSI, MFI, Stochastic) + S/R
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🔍 Quick Summary
After a strong rally 🚀 from the 24,750–24,800 support area, US100 has reached the 25,280–25,300 resistance zone — where multiple oscillators are showing overbought signals.
This suggests potential profit-taking or a technical correction may occur soon.
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📊 Price Structure
• Price formed a temporary top after tapping the overbought area, with clear rejection candles near resistance.
• A pullback toward the first support zone around 25,000–25,050 could occur before the next move.
• If selling pressure continues, the next target area lies near 24,800–24,850, where previous structure and demand overlap 📉.
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🧩 Technical Highlights
• OB/OS Overlap: RSI, MFI, and Stochastic are all in overbought territory (3/3 alignment) — a strong early signal of potential short-term exhaustion.
• Price Action: A minor double top or bearish divergence may be forming if momentum indicators continue to decline.
• Key Zones: Blue zones on the chart mark areas of potential buyer reaction (demand).
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🧭 Scenario Outlook
Main Scenario (🔻 Pullback Expected):
Price could retrace toward 25,000–24,850 before buyers attempt a rebound.
Alternative Scenario (🚀 Continuation):
If the price holds above 25,100 and breaks 25,280, the bullish momentum might continue short-term.
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⚙️ Risk Note
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Always manage risk carefully and align your trade plan with your own strategy 📘💡.
Market conditions can change rapidly — stay flexible and objective!
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
NAS100 H4 | Bullish Bounce from Key SupportNAS100 is falling towards the buy entry at 24,804.95, which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to the upside.
Stop loss is at 24,423.43, which is a pullback support.
Take profit is at 25,500.67, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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US100: Needs a healthy pullback before breaking highs🧭 SKILLING:US100 (30-Min Chart) – The Market Needs a Pause Before the Breakout
After a strong recovery from the 24,200 area , the US100 has shown an impressive upward acceleration, forming a steep speed line that pushed price back toward the previous highs around 25,150 – 25,250 — a major resistance zone where sellers previously dominated.
However, as price reaches this area, the bullish momentum is starting to fade. Smaller candles and indecisive movements reveal hesitation — buyers are still in control, but the strength that carried the market this far is beginning to weaken.
If we look closely at the market structure, it’s clear that the index has been trying to reclaim the entire prior range, but that effort hasn’t come easy. After such a fast rally, the market looks overextended, and bulls may need a healthy pullback to gather enough energy for a real breakout.
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🔍 Technical Outlook
• The 25,150 – 25,250 zone remains the key resistance area. If price keeps getting rejected here, short-term sellers might step in.
• A corrective move toward 24,850 – 24,950 (the pink zone) would not be surprising.
• That area should be watched closely — if buyers defend it strongly, it could become the launchpad for another push toward new highs.
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🎯 Personal View
The overall structure still favors the bullish side, but momentum needs a reset.
A short-term pullback shouldn’t be seen as weakness — it’s an opportunity for the market to rebalance before the next leg up.
If the 24,850 zone holds, the probability of a true breakout above 25,250 increases significantly, potentially opening room toward 25,400 – 25,500 in the next sessions.
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💬 In summary:
The US100 has worked hard to reclaim lost ground, but breaking above the previous top will require fresh momentum. A short-term correction could be exactly what the market needs to build a stronger foundation for a sustainable rally.
Please like and comment below to support our traders. Your reactions will motivate us to do more analysis in the future 🙏✨
Harry Andrew @ ZuperView
US govt Shutdown Impact on GOLD/BTC/SPX/NDX Overview📊 Scenario analysis
Assumed probabilities: 10-day (35%) / 20-day (40%) / 30-day (25%). These skew toward 20–30d expectation while allowing for a compromise CR late next week.
🗓️ 1) 10-day shutdown (quick CR by ~Oct 10)
• 🔑 Catalysts: market wobble + travel/FAA headlines + IPO freeze optics force a deal; leadership meeting produces a clean CR.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -3% to -5% drawdown from pre-shutdown highs, then sharp relief. Mega-cap quality outperforms; small-caps lag on SBA loan pause.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -3% to -8% (high beta to equities, liquidity cautious); quick snapback if the deal lands and SEC footprint stays light.
• 🟡 Gold: +1% to +3%; fades a bit on resolution as real-rate anxiety reasserts. History shows shutdowns aren’t a reliable gold rocket on their own.
🗓️ 2) 20-day shutdown (through ~Oct 20) — “policy fog trade”
• 🔑 Catalysts: prolonged policy riders; BEA/Census blackout delays GDP/retail sales; SEC skeletal staff extends IPO drought. Fed guidance leans on forecasts, not fresh data.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -5% to -8%. Factor rotation: low-vol/defensive > cyclicals; brokers/ECM-sensitive names soft; travel/airlines weak on FAA/TSA constraints.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -8% to -15% or flat-to-up if “crypto vs. Washington” narrative picks up while enforcement is thin — mixed precedent. This is the most two-sided asset here.
• 🟡 Gold: +3% to +6% as uncertainty premia build and central-bank-buying narrative stays intact. Stretching to $3,900–3,950 bullion target likely needs an added shock (ratings rhetoric, geopolitical flare).
🗓️ 3) 30-day shutdown (into late Oct) — “risk-off with rating overtones”
• 🔑 Catalysts: political stalemate; louder warnings about governance; issuance continues but optics around fiscal sustainability bite.
• 📉 SPX/NDX: -7% to -12%; HY spreads widen; VIX spikes; defensives/quality lead.
• 💻 Bitcoin: -15% to -25% on de-risking and liquidity run-down unless regulatory paralysis creates a “wild west” window and ETF inflows offset — low probability but non-zero.
• 🟡 Gold: +5% to +10%. A test of new cycle highs is plausible; hitting ~$3,900 quickly would likely require a ratings/FX scare, not just a shutdown.
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🧭 What’s different this time
• 📉 Data blackout = policy uncertainty: Delays to GDP/retail sales/trade stats complicate Fed read-throughs — markets price fatter uncertainty premia.
• 📜 Regulatory throttle: SEC/CFTC “skeletal staff” → IPO drought and slower filings (headwind to brokers/ECM), even as EDGAR stays up.
• ✈️ Real-economy micro-pain points: FAA hiring/training halted → travel frictions; SBA lending paused → small-cap cash flow stress.
• ⚠️ Ratings optics: After Moody’s downgrade, governance headlines cut deeper than in prior shutdowns.
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🤹 Contrarian angles
1. 🪙 “Bad data is no data” rally: If key prints are delayed, the market extrapolates a dovish Fed trajectory → curve bull-steepening and equities rally on rates, overpowering shutdown angst.
2. 💻 Crypto resilience: A lighter-touch SEC during a lapse can reduce headline risk; BTC has rallied during a shutdown before, though not consistently.
3. 🟡 Gold stall: If real yields back up on supply/duration worries rather than down on growth fear, gold can underperform despite the shutdown — history shows no clean positive beta.
4. 📈 Buy-the-resolution pop: Equities’ median post-shutdown performance is positive at 3–6 months — setting up a tactical sell the rumor / buy the cease-fire template.
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💡 Trades & risk management tactical, 2–6 weeks
📉 Equities (SPX/NDX)
• 🛡️ Hedge now, monetize spikes: 4–6 week put spreads on SPX/NDX (≈25Δ/10Δ) sized for a -6–8% path; roll down if we breach the first support zone. Consider VIX 1–2M calls as convex tail protection.
• 🔄 Pairs/tilts: Underweight ECM-sensitive brokers; overweight staples/health-care utilities; short airlines vs. travel alternatives until FAA constraints clear.
💻 Bitcoin
• 🛡️ De-gear & collar: Reduce leverage; implement collars (sell 10–15Δ OTM calls to finance 20–25Δ puts). If we gap lower into -10% territory quickly, look to sell downside skew and pivot to short-dated call spreads into resolution.
🟡 Gold
• 📈 Own upside, respect mean-reversion: Use GLD call spreads (1–2M) targeting +4–8% with limited theta. $3,900–$3,950 bullion target is a stretch on shutdown alone; size for base-case +3–6% unless a ratings/geopolitical catalyst emerges.
📉 Small-caps / credit
• 🛑 IWM vs. QQQ underweight (SBA bottlenecks); keep HY credit hedged via CDX HY or HYG puts into Day 15+.
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🔍 Levels & signposts to watch
• 🏛️ Policy tape: Any Senate movement on a “clean” CR; signs of healthcare rider compromise.
• 📅 Data calendar: Official notices on jobs/CPI/GDP timing (BLS/BEA/Census). A confirmed delay → more policy fog premium.
• ✈️ Micro stress: FAA/TSA updates; SEC operating status for registrations; SBA loan queue.
• ⚠️ Ratings rhetoric: Any agency commentary tying shutdown length to governance risk.
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📝 Bottom line
• 📉 Base path: A -5–8% equity drawdown with gold +3–6% and BTC -8–15% is the modal 2–4 week outcome if we run ~20 days.
• ⚠️ Tail path: At 30 days, governance optics + data blackout can push SPX/NDX -7–12%, BTC -15–25%, gold +5–10%.
• 🔄 Contrarian risk: A quick CR or a “no data → dovish” impulse squeezes shorts — be ready to pivot to a buy-the-resolution stance.
NASDAQ/SPX – Are We Really in an AI Bubble?This chart compares NASDAQ to the S&P 500 (NASDAQ/SPX) on a monthly timeframe, visualized with Heikin Ashi candles and a logarithmic regression channel for long-term context. It highlights the dot-com bubble, where the ratio reached extreme overvaluation levels far above the regression mean.
Recently, many investors have been calling the current market an “AI bubble.” However, when viewed through this historical lens, the ratio still remains within the long-term growth channel and far below the excesses of the early 2000s. This perspective suggests that, at least relative to the broader market, tech doesn’t appear to be in bubble territory yet.
It would still be valuable to compare the composition of the NASDAQ today versus in 2000, as the market structure has changed dramatically — with more diversified revenue streams, profitability, and balance sheet strength. Without this data, one can only speculate. But visually, this ratio helps challenge the popular narrative of an ongoing bubble and invites a more nuanced discussion about valuation, innovation cycles, and sector dominance.
#NASDAQ #SPX #Macro #Tech #AIbubble #DotCom #LongTerm #RatioAnalysis #HeikinAshi #MarketCycle
US100 Opens the Week with Cautious Optimism After Trade TensionsUS100 – 4H Technical Zone Analysis
Zone 1: All-Time High
This level represents the current top of the market and a heavy supply region. Until price closes decisively above this range with volume confirmation, it remains a key ceiling. Any push into this zone is high-risk for longs and ideal for short-term fade setups or liquidity hunts.
Zone 2: Pre-Breakout Resistance
This is the immediate resistance just below the all-time high. While a breakout through this zone may appear bullish on lower timeframes, traders should exercise caution. The proximity of the all-time-high resistance above significantly reduces reward-to-risk for fresh longs, price can easily reject from the upper zone and reverse quickly. A cleaner confirmation would require acceptance above both Zone 2 and Zone 1 before considering continuation trades.
Zone 3: Key Demand
This demand zone remains the foundation of the current bullish structure. It marks the origin of the recent rally and continues to attract responsive buyers on dips. As long as price holds above this level, the broader bias stays constructive. A clean break below would, however, shift short-term sentiment bearish and open the door for a deeper correction.
Market Sentiment: Cautious Optimism
After a volatile end to last week, US100 is starting the new week with a tone of cautious optimism. On Friday, renewed tension between the US and China rattled markets, as Washington floated new tariffs and export restrictions while Beijing hinted at countermeasures. However, over the weekend the tone softened, US officials signaled that they did not intend to escalate the trade conflict further, which helped calm investor nerves and lifted sentiment in global markets, particularly in Asia.
Today, the index is trading slightly higher, supported by renewed risk appetite and continued strength in tech and AI-related stocks. Still, confidence remains fragile. Oil prices have weakened, raising questions about global growth, and the ongoing US government shutdown continues to delay key economic data releases. With limited visibility into real fundamentals, investors are largely trading on headlines and policy expectations.
Overall, sentiment around the US100 is positive but delicate, the market is recovering from last week’s uncertainty, yet it remains highly sensitive to any renewed trade tension or negative macro surprises.
NAS100 – Technical AnalysisPrice is testing the 24,300.00 support zone after failing to hold above 24,500.00, indicating sustained selling pressure within the current bearish swing. The 4H structure shows repeated rejections at 24,750.00, suggesting that buyers are losing strength while sellers remain dominant.
Support at: 24,300.00 🔽 / 23,900.00 🔽 / 23,000.00 🔽
Resistance at: 24,500.00 🔼 / 24,750.00 🔼 / 25,000.00 🔼 / 25,170.00 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: Continuation below 24,300.00 could trigger a deeper drop toward 23,900.00 next.
🔼 Bullish: A firm close back above 24,750.00 would shift sentiment back toward 25,000.00–25,170.00 levels.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for a Decisive Week?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour time frame and is in its long-term ascending channel. As long as the Nasdaq is in its range, you can be a seller at the top of the range and a buyer at the bottom. If this range is broken, you can look for new trends in the Nasdaq.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30 a.m. New York time (4:00 p.m. Tehran time). This release comes as most other economic data have been delayed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has suspended normal operations.
The CPI report is particularly important for the U.S. Social Security Administration, as it serves as the basis for calculating annual adjustments to retirement benefits and other statutory payments.
In a statement released on Friday, the agency confirmed that it would temporarily recall a limited number of furloughed employees to ensure the timely publication of the CPI report. Originally scheduled for October 15, the release has now been rescheduled for October 24.
This CPI release will be among the few remaining economic datasets published by federal agencies during the shutdown. Since October 1, most data-producing institutions have ceased operations amid political deadlock between Democrats and Republicans that has halted large portions of federal services.
With the federal shutdown continuing, U.S. markets are increasingly relying on private-sector data to gauge the state of the economy. In the upcoming week, indicators such as housing sales and private manufacturing surveys will be released, serving as alternative references for traders and analysts.
Without access to official government data, investors, businesses, and consumers face a heightened level of uncertainty, making it difficult to plan for spending, hiring, and saving decisions.
The CPI report could play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, as the FOMC will have access to the data ahead of its October 28–29 policy meeting. Fed officials are currently debating whether to cut interest rates further, and if so, how quickly.
In September, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate to support a weakening labor market by reducing borrowing costs across short-term loans. Another rate cut is widely expected in October, though elevated inflation could slow or prevent further easing.
The Chief Financial Officer of Bank of America (BOFA) stated that the bank expects two additional rate cuts by the Fed before the end of this year.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently warned about downside risks to the labor market, sparking speculation that he might have had early access to the yet-unreleased September employment report. However, a closer examination of his remarks shows no confirmation or denial of such access.
The key takeaway from Powell’s speech was his firm reaffirmation of market expectations for a rate cut later this month, delivered without any sign of hesitation or opposition — a clear and confident signal to investors.
In another commentary, Bank of America highlighted that the current boom in AI data centers is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s. The bank attributed today’s expansion to strong semiconductor utilization, healthy cash flows, lower valuations, and a more favorable interest rate environment.
Nonetheless, it acknowledged ongoing concerns about excessive spending and stretched valuations in certain AI sectors.
Finally, the October Bank of America investor survey revealed that recession fears have fallen to their lowest level since February 2022, while optimism about economic growth has seen its strongest jump since 2020:
• 33% expect a “no-landing” scenario (up from 18%)
• 54% foresee a “soft landing” (down from 67%)
• 8% anticipate a “hard landing” (down from 10%).
NAS100Success in forex trading requires a disciplined combination of education, strategy, and risk management. First, thoroughly understand how currency markets work, including technical and fundamental analysis, and stay updated on global economic events. Develop a clear trading plan with defined entry and exit points, and stick to it consistently to avoid emotional decisions. Use proper risk management, never risking more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade, and always set stop-loss orders to limit losses. Practice patience, as consistent profits come over time rather than quick wins, and continuously review and refine your strategies based on performance and market changes.
Nasdaq - Clearly heading to $30.000!🎉Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) points much higher:
🔎Analysis summary:
Yes, we witnessed a short term correction over the past couple of days. But no, this does not mean that the bullrun is now entirely over. In fact, looking at the longer term rising channel pattern, the Nasdaq can still rally higher until it will retest the upper trendline.
📝Levels to watch:
$25.000, $30.000
SwingTraderPhil
SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
BEARISH TRADE IDEA - IF THEN ANALYSISMONDAY: 13 OCTOBER 2025
PRE-NY ANALYSIS:
BEARISH INTRA-DAY IDEA FRAMED ON H1 AND REFINED ON M15:
- Market currently in a Premium and just caressed the OTE (62%) of the Fib.
- Price also currently above the True-Day Open.
- Would like to see price trade lower into the Discount of the range (below the True-Day Open) before trading higher into the overlapping H1/M15 -FVG before trading softer, as per scenario 1.
- Otherwise, we look to scenario 2.
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
US100: SCENARIO 3 IF PREVIOUS 2 IDEAS FAILBearish Market Structure Shift (-MSS) is imminent if Price Action follows what I have denoted in this trade idea.
DISCLAIMER:
The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS).
The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits.
All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice.
No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea.
If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
How to find algorithmic levels of support and resistanceUsing repeating pinpoint levels to form meaning of opens and closes around these levels give you an advantage in your analysis.
As price gives us clues to what levels are affecting price, we should mark the new candles that are responding to these levels by breaking and retesting these very levels.
Please let me know your thoughts! 🙏🏾
NasdaqHello traders! Last Friday, we had a major selloff in the 25,000 region, which quickly sent the Nasdaq crashing by more than 4% in just a few hours. In technical analysis, 24,000 is a price that has been broken previously and is now being tested as weekly support. If we expand this movement, we project a target price of 26,000, continuing the upward movement. The technology sector remains promising with advances in artificial intelligence, and we have no news of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Happy trading!
Institutions Are Hedging Their Longs / A Crash May Be ComingWe have several factors pointing toward a high-risk environment in the market. There are multiple bubbles, a president who has created global drama, high interest rates, and an economy that is so overstimulated that, in principle, a crash is needed to straighten things out and bring the market back to reality.
Right now the market is not rational. We have a tech sector with sky-high P/E ratios, the S&P 500 versus the Fed Funds Rate at levels that have historically led to extreme crashes, and COT data showing how institutions have positioned their futures contracts. It clearly shows that institutions are afraid and have therefore hedged against their long positions.
They are hedging, timing is difficult, and we don’t know exactly when this will happen, but we may already be seeing the beginning. Right now professionals are securing themselves. We are in a perfect storm for a crash; one drop too much and the entire market could flip flat.
I have made great gains this year in gold, the tech sector, and even on several short-term trades. I am currently 50% hedged through various products such as options, futures, and other instruments. I am ready, if the market continues higher I will remain fairly neutral, but if we crash I will make a significant profit. Sure, we could see another bull run, but the data suggests anything but that. Play smart.
THE ULTIMATE CHESS MATCH...THE FINANCIAL MARKETSHey hey everybody JosePips here!!! Just wanted to drop a fire video about how we as retail traders should be approaching these markets, what they truly represent, & how we are witnessing the ultimate chess match take place...so let's dive in to what I go through in this video
1. The mindset behind the markets: People & Money
2. What the markets represent: the ultimate chess match
3. The chess match between buyers & sellers
4. The RETAIL ADVANTAGE: 3rd party witnesses
5. The business of the markets
6. How WE as RETAIL participants can UTILIZE this chess match to create our trading/business decisions with PROBABILITY
OK guys! I dropped some heat in this video! Hope you all enjoy & REMEMBER...EMOTIONAL trading is not trading..it's just hope :)
Cheers!!
NZD 100 pushed downward momentumOn the M15 timeframe, the structure has been broken, confirming a bearish bias. From the lower timeframes, we now expect the price to drop from the golden M3 zone toward the horizontal target level below.
As always — stay patient, follow your plan, and trust your analysis.