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THE ULTIMATE CHESS MATCH...THE FINANCIAL MARKETSHey hey everybody JosePips here!!! Just wanted to drop a fire video about how we as retail traders should be approaching these markets, what they truly represent, & how we are witnessing the ultimate chess match take place...so let's dive in to what I go through in this video 1. The mindset behind the markets: People & Money 2. What the markets represent: the ultimate chess match 3. The chess match between buyers & sellers 4. The RETAIL ADVANTAGE: 3rd party witnesses 5. The business of the markets 6. How WE as RETAIL participants can UTILIZE this chess match to create our trading/business decisions with PROBABILITY OK guys! I dropped some heat in this video! Hope you all enjoy & REMEMBER...EMOTIONAL trading is not trading..it's just hope :) Cheers!!
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by JosePips
NASDAQ 100 (NDX)-The Grand Super Cycle Journey🧠 The Grand Super Cycle Journey of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Here's a comprehensive, narrative-style description of NASDAQ 100 (NDX) INDEX based on Elliott Wave Theory , Smart Money Concepts (SMC) , Fibonacci Retracements/Extensions , Price Action , and Fundamentals across Super Cycle , Macro , and Micro Waves 🔍📈: 🌱 Super Cycle Wave 1: The Birth of Tech (1986–2000) The journey begins with Wave 1 , ignited by the early tech boom — Microsoft, Intel, and the rise of Silicon Valley 🚀. This impulsive leg spans over a decade, culminating in the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. 🔹 Smart Money Insight: Early accumulation started in the '80s, followed by massive markup into the 1990s. Retail entered late, leading to the euphoric climax in 2000. 🔹 Price Action: Parabolic rallies, breakouts through historical resistance, ending in a massive overextension. 🔹 Fundamentals: Era of growth, innovation, low inflation, and initial internet adoption. 🌪️ Super Cycle Wave 2: The Great Correction (2000–2009) The bursting of the dot-com bubble triggered a complex correction labeled as W-X-Y. This 9-year structure ends in the 2008–09 financial crisis low. The market retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level , a classic deep correction in a strong long-term bull market. 🔸 Smart Money: Distribution at the top → manipulation through global uncertainty (9/11, housing bubble) → reaccumulation near the 2009 lows 🧠📉. 🔸 Fundamentals: Enron scandal, 9/11, housing collapse, Lehman bankruptcy — a decade of fear and instability 🏚️. 🚀 Super Cycle Wave 3: The Exponential Phase (2009–2029)* The most powerful leg — Wave 3 — is unfolding, targeting an eventual 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~85,000) . This wave is subdivided into 5 Macro Waves , each composed of 5 Micro Waves . Here's how the structure progresses: ⚙️ Macro Wave 1 (2009–2012) Started at the GFC low, this wave marked the beginning of recovery, finishing with 5 orange micro waves . 🟠 Micro Waves: A clean 5-wave impulse showing the early stages of structural strength. 📊 Price Action: Break of structure (BoS) confirms bullish reversal. 🏦 Fundamentals: QE1/QE2, low interest rates, tech stabilization, birth of FAANG era 💻. 📈 Smart Money: Institutions started accumulating in late 2009–2010, reflected in tight consolidations and sharp rallies. 🔁 Macro Wave 2 (2012) A brief and shallow correction within the bullish context — a classic bullish flag in terms of price action. Quickly ended with higher lows. 🧠 SMC: Short manipulation phase to shake weak hands. 📉 Price Action: Pullback respected prior structure — no trend break. 💥 Macro Wave 3 (2012–2021) This was the largest and most explosive wave , extending over 9 years and forming 5 purple micro waves. 🟣 Micro Waves: Clean impulsive structure, confirming a classic Elliott wave fractal. 💡 Fundamentals: Rise of cloud computing Mobile-first economy AI, semiconductors, and social media explosion COVID-19 crash and rebound — the fastest recovery in history 🔹 Fibonacci: No deep retracements — sign of a healthy, powerful wave 3. 🧠 Smart Money: Deep accumulation during COVID crash → massive expansion post-March 2020 📈. 🧱 Macro Wave 4 (2021–2022) A healthy correction that reset the structure — completed around the 2022 low. This wave maintained market structure integrity. 🔻 SMC: Liquidity sweep of previous lows + mitigation of demand zones. 📊 Price Action: Range-bound, bearish to neutral. 🌍 Macro Headwinds: Interest rate hikes Inflation fears Global instability (Russia-Ukraine, energy crisis) 🧬 Macro Wave 5 (2022–2029) – Now Unfolding* This is the final thrust of the Super Cycle Wave 3 , subdivided into 5 micro waves (current count in progress): 🔸 Micro Wave 1 ✅ Initial rally from 2022 lows, showing strong impulsive behavior. 🧠 Smart Money: Confirmed shift from reaccumulation to expansion. 🔸 Micro Wave 2 ✅ Pullback formed higher low — acted as final reaccumulation. 🔴 Micro Wave 3 – In Process (2025–2026) This is expected to be the strongest wave within Macro Wave 5, projected to peak near 36,000 (2.618 extension of micro 1–2). 📈 Price Action: Aggressive higher highs and shallow pullbacks. 🧠 SMC: Expansion with little liquidity left below — institutions pushing price up. 💡 Fundamentals: AI hypergrowth US tech dominance AI chips, quantum computing, tokenization Renewed bullish risk appetite 🌐 🟠 Micro Wave 4 (Expected 2026–2027) A corrective wave likely to retest the macro structure — forming a flag or triangle. 📉 Price Action: Sideways to downward chop, retracing 0.382–0.5 of wave 3. 🧠 SMC: Inducement setup before final rally. 🌍 Macro: Possible geopolitical or monetary tightening phase. 🔵 Micro Wave 5 (Expected Top in 2029) The final leg of Macro Wave 5 and Super Cycle Wave 3. Expected to top near 85,000 , a 2.618% Fibonacci extension of Super Cycle Waves 1–2. 🎯 Final Parabolic Blow-Off 📊 Price Action: Euphoria, exponential rally, low-volume melt-up 📈 Smart Money: Final distribution phase — retail FOMO peaks 🧨 Fundamentals: Mania phase — “everything AI/metaverse/tokenized” narrative, record valuations, IPO booms. 🔮 Looking Beyond: Super Cycle Wave 4 (Post-2029) Once the 85K target is met, a multi-year correction is expected — possibly deep and drawn out. Historically, Wave 4s retrace 0.236% to 0.382% and take years to unfold. 🧠 Expect: Systemic debt pressure Currency shifts Economic reset themes Potential Fed policy overcorrection Liquidity crunch 🌧️ Super Cycle Wave 4 may retest previous demand zones around 30–36K. 📚 Final Thoughts Our analysis represents an extraordinary blend of Elliott Wave fractals , institutional behavior (SMC) , and macro-fundamental alignment . We are in the late phase of a historical Super Cycle rally — but Wave 3 still has room to run 📈. ✅ Wave Count Aligned ✅ Fibonacci Extensions Respected ✅ SMC Structure Intact ✅ Macro-Fundamentals in Sync 📌 2025–2029 could be the final push before a generational correction. Smart investors must watch for distribution signs post-36K 📊. "Trust the waves, not the noise." – FIBCOS 🌊 📘 Disclaimer: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management. #FIBCOS #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcept #MarketAnalysis #NASDAQ #XAUUSD #SuperCycle #MacroTrend #SmartMoney #Fibonacci #PriceAction #Commodities #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermOutlook
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by fibcos
H4 INTRA-DAY IDEAIntra-Day Buy Model Idea DISCLAIMER: The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits. All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea. If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by CEO_SKAI_KAPITAL_PTY_LTD
1
US100 HTF MARKET OUTLOOKMMSM (Market Maker Sell Model) is imminent if Price Action follows what I have denoted in this trade idea. DISCLAIMER: The owner of this page is an authorised Representative under supervision of TD MARKETS (PTY) LTD, an authorised Financial Services Provider (FSP No. 49128) licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) under the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The FSP is licensed to provide advice and intermediary services in respect of Category I financial products, including but not limited to derivative instruments, long-term deposits, and short-term deposits. All investment ideas are provided in accordance with the scope of the FSP's license and applicable regulatory requirements. Derivative instruments is a leveraged products that carry high risks and could result in losing all of your capital, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This idea and any attachments are informational/education and does not constitute advice. No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or outcome of this trade idea. If you choose to accept this idea, please do so at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by CEO_SKAI_KAPITAL_PTY_LTD
2
Nas100 - Pulls Back from Record Levels, Testing Critical SupportZone 1: Major Supply / Rejection Area This zone aligns with the upper consolidation structure from which the last impulsive sell-off originated. Sellers have shown clear presence here, making it a strong supply pocket. As long as price remains below, it acts as a tactical short zone or at least a reaction point where momentum may fade. A sustained break and acceptance above would neutralize the selling pressure and open the door for a retest of the highs. Asia Session High: Intraday Pivot This intraday level marks short-term liquidity and offers a reference point for session-based structure. If price holds below it, short-term bias stays bearish toward the lower demand zone; reclaiming it intraday could trigger a squeeze back into Zone 1. Zone 2: Key Demand / Buy-Side Liquidity Area This zone has repeatedly acted as a strong buy-side absorption region. It represents the base of the prior impulse move, where aggressive buyers stepped in to defend structure. A clean hold here could produce a sharp rebound, while a decisive break below would confirm a shift in market control toward sellers and potentially start a deeper correction cycle. Sentiment The Nas100 remains near record highs, with sentiment best described as bullish but cautious. The market is still being driven by expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts, falling bond yields, and strong momentum in AI and large-cap tech stocks. Despite a weaker macro backdrop, investors continue to treat the tech sector as a structural growth play and a safe haven in an uncertain environment. However, the tone is far from euphoric. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has created a “data blackout,” leaving traders without key economic releases such as CPI or employment figures. This has made the market more headline-driven and prone to volatility. At the same time, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and rising warnings about overvaluation are keeping risk awareness high. Overall, sentiment on US100 remains positive, supported by liquidity and tech optimism, but the rally rests on fragile ground - driven more by policy expectations and momentum than by clear fundamental strength.
FPMARKETS:US100
by Kathrine_Sofie
NAS 100: Price Surge Potential After Break and RetestHi everyone, Kilian here! Let's take a closer look at the NAS 100 on a 3-hour timeframe, as it’s currently showing some interesting movements. The price has been steadily moving within an ascending channel, with the buyers continuing to dominate and push the price higher. What’s particularly interesting right now is the breakout level. As the price approaches this level, we’ll be watching closely to see if the buyers can maintain control. A break and retest scenario could unfold here. If the price breaks through this level and then comes back to retest it (testing the broken level as support), and the buyers manage to hold it, this would be a strong confirmation that the buyers are still in control, and we could see price continuing to move towards the upper boundary of the channel. However, if the price drops back below this level after the breakout, this could signal a false breakout, which may lead to a short-term correction as the sellers take control. Currently, the momentum is still in favor of the buyers, and as long as the price holds above the breakout level, the bullish structure remains intact. What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! And remember, discussions within the TradingView community are a great way for all of us to improve our trading skills and grow together.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Kiliann_Dang
3
NAS100 can continue higher inside the channelPrice has been moving steadily inside an ascending channel, with buyers maintaining control and pushing higher. If buyers manage to defend this breakout zone on a retest, it would confirm their control and follow continuation toward the channel’s upper boundary. However, if sellers step in and force a drop back below, that could hint at a false breakout and short-term pullback. For now, momentum favors the buyers, as long as price holds above the breakout area, the bullish structure remains intact.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by TrendDiva
5