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USTECH100CFD trade ideas

US100: Price Action Analysis Based On Historical MovementsUS100 Price Action Analysis Based On Historical Movements In recent analysis, we’ve seen the US100 drop multiple times last month by around 3.5% to 4%, but each time it quickly bounced back, showing that these moves were simply buying opportunities during deep pullbacks. The previous month, the index fell by about 4.3% due to fears over new tariffs on August 1st, but already recovered, which suggests that the bullish trend remains intact. Last week the price fell again by almost -4.3% and rebounded due to Powell's comment about a possible interest rate cut at the September meeting. As we can see, this is a recurring price behavior. If the momentum continues, the US100 could retest the highs near 23,950, and could also rise to 24,500. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by KlejdiCuni
1
NAS100 - Bearish Setup!Markets gaps to fill, starting off in the higher time frame price plumeted from the supply zone. From there we had a strong support thats been formed. We are AIMING for that support zone. Change Of Character HAS been created already giving me confirmation to look for selling opportunities in this market range. Reacting of the smaller supply zone I will be anticipating a 71% retracement back into the supply to fill imbalance before shorting into that support that we suggested would be our target. Good luck to anyone that follows
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by jamesibartram
NASDAQ Can this 1D MA50 rebound be sustainable?Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since May 12 and last week made a double rebound very close to its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is technically the latest Higher Low of the pattern and as long as it holds, we should see the new Bullish Leg. The last two major ones rose by roughly +10% each. Given that the 1D RSI also made a Double Bottom on its Support, we remain bullish on Nasdaq, targeting 24800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:USTECLong
by TradingShot
Nasdaq's Bearish Drift: Key Levels in FocusFenzoFx—Nasdaq's short-term trend is bearish. Friday's rally eased after the price filled the fair value gap with resistance at $23,569.00. Today, NQ displaced below the recent lows, currently trading inside the bullish FVG. There is a relevant equal low at $23,012.00. From a technical perspective, the bearish outlook remains valid if the price holds below $23,569.00. In this scenario, we expect the market to fill the FVG with immediate support at $23,277.00. Furthermore, if the selling pressure persists, Nasdaq could sweep the equal low by targeting the support at $22,950.00.
FX:NAS100Short
by FenzoFxBroker
Nasdaq Eyes the 23,700 Resistance Ahead of NVDIA EarningsOn the Nasdaq front, all eyes are on NVIDIA’s Q2 earnings, with expectations for revenue around 45.9B and EPS between 1.00–1.01. While enthusiasm around AI continues to drive tech optimism, concerns remain over tariff risks with China, particularly regarding potential backdoors or tracking technologies in NVIDIA chips. These risks could limit revenue potential from the Chinese market Nasdaq's rebound from the 22,900 mark appears sustainable, with daily RSI holding above the 50 neutral-barrier. A clean hold above 23,700 and 24,100 could pave the way toward new highs at 24,400 and 24,700, in line with continued AI-driven growth. Downside: A break below 23,200, 22,900, and especially 22,700 would signal broader tech sector weakness, potentially aligning price action with 22,300 and 21,900 support zones. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom
A case for a correction of the US100While the long-term trend remains bullish, several short-term factors suggest the index is poised for a significant pullback. Why the US100 Could Be Bearish Several key factors point to a potential downturn for the US100 in the coming days: Elevated Valuations and Overbought Conditions: The US100 has experienced a rapid and significant rally in recent months, fueled largely by the enthusiasm for AI and the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks. This has pushed the index to all-time highs, but it has also led to stretched valuations. Many technical indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), show that the index is overbought, indicating that momentum may be running out and a correction is due. 📉 Doubt on a Fed Rate Cut: While recent inflation data showed a slight cooling, some analysts are pushing back against the idea of a certain September rate cut. The core inflation number remains above the Fed's 2% target, and some Fed officials may express a more cautious or "hawkish" stance at this week's Jackson Hole Symposium. A hawkish surprise from the Fed would likely lead to a sharp sell-off in growth stocks, which are sensitive to interest rates. Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty: The ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, continue to create a cloud of uncertainty. While a temporary truce has been announced, any renewed rhetoric or action could trigger a flight to safety, with investors pulling money out of riskier assets like technology stocks. Slowing Economic Growth: The U.S. economy's underlying health remains a concern. GDP growth in the first half of the year was modest, and the labor market has shown signs of weakening. This economic softness, combined with the potential for tariffs to increase inflation in the second half of the year, could lead to a less optimistic outlook for corporate earnings, especially for multinational tech companies. Key Technical Levels to Watch A breakdown of key support and resistance levels can help define the potential bearish path. Primary Resistance Zone: The immediate overhead resistance is the all-time high zone, which sits between 23,875 and 24,000. A failure to break above this area would confirm a bearish bias. Immediate Support: The first critical support level is around 23,690. A sustained break below this would likely trigger further selling. Correction Targets: A deeper correction could see the index fall toward the 23,500 zone, which represents a key technical support level. If that level breaks, the next target for bears would be the 22,800 mark. In summary, while the long-term trend remains positive, the confluence of high valuations, potential hawkish Fed commentary, and a weakening economic outlook creates a significant risk for a bearish correction in the US100 over the next two weeks.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by tshiiamom_sa
NAS100 - Where will the stock market ?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and has re-entered its ascending channel. If this channel is maintained, its upward path to the specified price target will be possible, but before that, the downward trend line must be broken in a valid way. If the channel is lost, the index's downward path will continue to around 23,000 points. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks, delivered in a dovish tone, boosted bullish sentiment in financial markets and sparked a new wave of optimism among Wall Street investors and market participants. Following Powell’s speech, U.S. stock benchmarks surged sharply, with capital flows notably directed into the Russell 2000 index of small-cap companies, which jumped 3.86%—its strongest gain since April 9. During his keynote at the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium, Powell implicitly suggested that an interest rate cut could come as soon as next month. At the same time, he warned of rising inflation risks and signs of slower economic growth, stressing that although risks are relatively balanced, the current environment may require an adjustment in monetary policy. He stated: “Given that monetary policy remains in a restrictive stance, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant a reassessment of our policy stance.” Naeem Aslam, chief investment strategist at Zaye Capital Markets, described Powell’s comments as a turning point for markets, saying: “Powell’s dovish tone came as a real surprise to many market participants who did not expect such an approach from the Fed Chair. His remarks were clearly interpreted as a dovish signal.” Following Powell’s comments, traders raised their expectations for a September rate cut. Barclays revised its forecast and now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two 25-basis-point cuts this year—in September and December. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings affirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, a decision made despite significant political uncertainty. According to Fitch, rising trade tariffs, government spending cuts, stricter border controls, and increased deportations have heightened policy uncertainty, weighing on household consumption and business investment. Fitch projects that the U.S. economy will remain in recession in 2026, growing only 1.5%, as elevated inflation and policy uncertainty continue to dampen consumer spending. However, the agency expects that faster rate cuts that year could boost domestic demand, helping growth rebound to 2.1% in 2027. This week, two key reports are in focus: the second estimate of Q2 GDP and July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The initial GDP estimate showed a 3% expansion, and consensus forecasts anticipate confirmation of this figure. In contrast, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects a 2.3% growth rate, which, while lower, still points to economic resilience and suggests no urgent need for accelerated rate cuts—even as political pressure from the White House on Powell continues. Notably, GDPNow will be revised on Tuesday ahead of the official release. Inflation data, however, carry greater weight. The core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, has closely tracked core CPI for the past decade. With July’s core CPI climbing from 2.9% to 3.1%, there is a risk that PCE will follow the same path. Such a scenario would signal persistent inflationary pressures and significantly reduce the likelihood of a second rate cut this year. If these data confirm stronger inflation, the U.S. dollar will likely strengthen further, while equities could come under additional pressure. A slower pace of monetary easing diminishes the present value of future cash flows for growth-oriented companies, explaining why Wall Street’s corrective phase may persist. On the corporate front, Nvidia’s CEO said that the ability to ship its H20 chip to China is highly valuable and poses no national security concerns. He added that the decision to supply a next-generation AI data center chip to China, which will succeed the H20, is not within Nvidia’s direct control. The company is set to report earnings on Wednesday and remains in discussions with the U.S. government, though no resolution has yet been reached. The CEO also mentioned that his brief visit to Taiwan would mainly involve a dinner with TSMC executives. He revealed TSMC’s new “Rubin” architecture, comprising six new chips, and announced that Nvidia will hold its GTC conference in Washington, D.C. for the first time. Separately, Meta has halted AI hiring after onboarding more than 50 specialists with lucrative compensation packages. The freeze affects both new hires and internal transfers, unless personally approved by Alexander Wang, head of AI. In recent months, Meta has reorganized its AI division into four separate teams to advance its “superintelligence” projects. Analysts have warned about rising costs and equity grants, framing the hiring pause as part of broader budget control and organizational restructuring efforts.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
NASDAQ Outlook – New York SessionFriday's news pushed the market strongly upward, shifting momentum from the bears to the bulls. This week, price action is setting up for continuation. On the chart, we can see a classic bull flag pattern forming. I expect price to dip into the fair value gap, retracing no more than 50%, before resuming its upward movement during the New York session. Bias: Bullish Plan: Look for long opportunities after a clean retrace and confirmation during NY Open.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Maroko86
2
NAS100USD Analysis – POC Magnet, Demand Zone🔎 Context Price action on NAS100USD is currently trading within a clearly defined range between the Value Area High (VAH) and Value Area Low (VAL) . Volume Profile highlights a key Point of Control (POC) around 23150 – the price level where the highest amount of trading volume has accumulated in this range. In Smart Money terms, we also have a refined demand zone forming below, with the proximal line aligning closely above the POC. This overlap strengthens the case for the POC acting as a "magnet" and a potential support base. ⚡ Key Levels Value Area High (VAH) : ~23880 – range resistance. Value Area Low (VAL) : ~23010 – range support. POC : ~23150 – high-volume node, magnetic level. Proximal Line : Sitting just above POC, marking the edge of demand. Refined Demand Zone : 22950 – 23050 region. 🏗 Structural Insights A major structural failure occurred earlier near 23880, confirming supply above. Price swept liquidity below 23050 before aggressively reclaiming the range. Current trading sits just above POC and proximal, showing buyers defending. A break and acceptance above 23510 (mid-range) opens the path back to VAH at 23880. ✅ Trade Scenarios Bullish Case (Continuation to VAH) If price sustains above 23516 and holds above the proximal/POC cluster, we can expect a continuation toward VAH (23880). Targets: 23880 (VAH) → potential extension toward swing high. Bearish Case (POC Magnet + Demand Retest) Failure to hold above proximal/POC may drag price back into the POC magnet zone at 23150. If momentum weakens further, a retest of the refined demand zone (22950 – 23050) is likely. Below VAL (23010), imbalance could drive a deeper correction. 📌 Conclusion The confluence of POC (fair value) and proximal demand (structural support) makes 23150 a pivotal level. Holding above it favors a continuation toward 23880 VAH , while a rejection would likely see price revert back to demand. This setup showcases how Volume Profile levels (POC/VAH/VAL) can be combined with SMC concepts (demand zones & structural breaks) to create a high-probability framework. 💡 Trade safe, manage risk, and always wait for confirmations around these key levels before execution.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
NAS100 UPDATE: Potential TargetsDear Friends in Trading, Keynote: I am only labeling Friday's candle due to the fundamental sentiment for September. But even technically, a bearish structure was broken on Friday, potentially signaling an even stronger bullish continuation. How I see it: 1) Demand will only pile up from here. 2) Immediate resistance at 23550 is strong and may force a small correction. INTERESTING: ✅✅✅ Check out a 3Day candle that closed on Friday. A new 3D candle starts on Monday - Keeping in mind the strength. I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight Thank you for taking the time study my analysis. PS: I really apologies for changing the format again. I am aiming to find the golden thread between my eyes for work, and simplified clarity for ideas. I will settle on a standard template soon.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ANROC
6
watch 23,280–23,755 for the next impulse ### 🧭 US100 – Daily Game Plan **Timeframe:** 1D (structure) + 4H (triggers) **TL;DR:** Price is coiling near a prior swing zone. I’m watching a break-and-retest for continuation, or a failure back into the range for a mean-revert move. Not financial advice—educational levels only. --- #### 📊 Market Picture * Trend on higher TFs remains **up** while price holds above the most recent higher-low area. * Momentum cooled after the last impulse; candles tightened → **volatility compression**. * The **50-day MA** sits just below current structure and is my bull/bear divider. > **Chart setup I’m using:** AlgoFlex Ai S&R indicator (free indicator based on our Ai Model), a simple swing-structure tool (HH/HL/LH/LL). --- #### 🧱 Key Areas I Care About * **Resistance box:** prior swing high cluster (where we failed last attempt). * **Support box:** last demand wick + 50-DMA zone. * **Line in the sand:** a daily close beyond either box sets the next leg. *(Mark these boxes on your chart before trading—numbers change daily; structure doesn’t.)* --- #### 🎯 My Playbook **Continuation (bullish):** 1. 4H **close above resistance box** 2. **Retest holds** as support 3. Enter on reclaim with risk below the retest low → scale at prior highs / round number **Fade/Breakdown (bearish):** 1. Rejection wick at resistance **or** daily **close below support box** 2. Look for **lower-high** on 4H to confirm shift 3. Target the 50-DMA first; deeper move only if structure stays weak --- #### ⚠️ Risk Management * No entries into high-impact news (FOMC, CPI, NFP). * Size ≤ 1R per idea; invalidate quickly if we close back inside the range after a breakout. * If the first breakout is a **fake-out**, stand aside and let structure reset. --- #### 📚 Education Note This post is for study and discussion. Everyone manages their own risk and decisions. --- #### 🧰 About My Tools I develop **AlgoFlex**—a suite of **invite-only TradingView scripts**: **Scalping, Forex, Commodities, Indices, Crypto**. **One subscription = full access.** If you want to explore how I build these setups, check my **profile → Scripts** --- 👍 If this helped, drop a like/comment and tell me which timeframe you want next (4H or 1H). \#US100 #Nasdaq100 #PriceAction #SupportResistance #50DMA #RiskManagement #AlgoFlex
FX:NAS100Long
by AlgoFlexMarket
NAS100 Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Daily Trading Strategy# NAS100 Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Daily Trading Strategy **Current Position**: 23,514.5 (Aug 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) * 🎯 Executive Summary Multi-theory convergence analysis indicates NAS100 at critical inflection point with 65% probability of upward continuation to 24,000-24,600 zone, contingent on breaking 23,640 resistance. --- # 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS **INTRADAY ANALYSIS (5M - 4H)** **5-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Candlestick Patterns *Current Formation**: Potential inside bar consolidation *Key Patterns to Watch**: Hammer/Doji near 23,500 (bullish), Shooting star above 23,580 (bearish) *Volume Confirmation**: Required for breakout validation ** Technical Indicators *RSI(14)**: ~48-52 (Neutral zone, watch for divergence) *VWAP**: 23,508 ± 15 (Dynamic S/R level) *Bollinger Bands**: Squeeze pattern suggesting breakout imminent *EMA(20)**: 23,495 (immediate support/resistance) **15-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Harmonic Patterns *Active Pattern**: Potential ABCD completion at 23,350-23,380 *Butterfly Pattern**: Target projection 24,580-24,650 *Fibonacci Confluence**: 61.8% retracement at 23,420 ** Wyckoff Analysis *Phase**: Testing phase after potential accumulation *Volume**: Decreasing on declines (bullish sign) *Price Action**: Higher lows formation developing *Next Expected**: Markup phase if 23,450 holds **30-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Elliott Wave Count *Primary Count**: Wave (4) correction nearing completion - Wave A: 23,690 → 23,350 - Wave B: 23,350 → 23,580 (current) - Wave C Target: 23,200-23,300 *Alternate Count**: Wave (5) impulse beginning - Target: 24,200-24,600 ** W.D. Gann Analysis *Square of 9**: 23,490 and 23,625 critical levels *Time Theory**: Next major turn window Aug 26-28 *Angle Theory**: 1x1 Gann line at 23,200 (major support) **1-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo *Tenkan-sen (9)**: 23,520 (resistance) *Kijun-sen (26)**: 23,465 (support) *Kumo Cloud**: 23,420-23,480 (support zone) *Chikou Span**: Above price action (bullish) *Future Cloud**: Bullish twist expected in 26 periods ** Moving Averages Confluence *SMA(50)**: 23,380 *EMA(50)**: 23,425 *WMA(50)**: 23,448 *Golden Cross Formation**: EMA crossing above SMA (bullish) *# **4-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Advanced Pattern Recognition *Head & Shoulders**: Potential inverse H&S with neckline at 23,580 *Flag Pattern**: Bullish flag consolidation after impulse move *Support/Resistance**: - Major Support: 23,200-23,300 - Minor Support: 23,420-23,465 - Minor Resistance: 23,580-23,625 - Major Resistance: 23,690-23,750 --- # 📈 SWING ANALYSIS (4H - Monthly) **Daily Timeframe** *# Elliott Wave Analysis *Supercycle**: Wave (III) of Grand Supercycle in progress *Cycle**: Wave 3 of (III) potential completion *Primary**: Wave (4) correction expected - Target: 22,800-23,200 (38.2%-50% Fibonacci) - Duration: 3-8 weeks - Pattern: Likely flat or triangle *# Wyckoff Market Structure *Phase**: Distribution testing vs. Reaccumulation *Volume Profile**: High volume nodes at 23,300 and 22,800 *Composite Man Activity**: Accumulation signs if above 23,200 *Spring/Upthrust**: Watch for false breakdowns below 23,200 *# Gann Time & Price Forecasting *Time Cycles**: - 90-day cycle: Peak expected late August - 180-day cycle: Next major turn October 2025 *Price Squares**: - 23,400 = 153² ÷ 10 - 24,000 = 155² ÷ 10 - 25,000 = 158² ÷ 10 **Weekly Timeframe** *# Long-term Elliott Wave *Grand Supercycle**: Wave III from 2009 lows *Supercycle**: Wave (3) extension phase *Cycle**: Wave 3 of (3) nearing completion at 25,000-26,000 *# Harmonic Analysis *Shark Pattern**: Completion at 25,200-25,400 *Crab Pattern**: Deep retracement target 20,800-21,500 *ABCD Extensions**: 1.618 projection at 26,000 * **Monthly Timeframe** *# Macro Elliott Wave Structure *Primary Degree**: Wave (5) of III in progress *Intermediate**: Wave 3 of (5) targeting 28,000-30,000 *Minor**: Current correction within larger impulse *# Gann Annual Forecasting *2025 Projection**: 24,000-26,000 year-end target *Seasonal Tendency**: Q4 traditionally strong for tech *Master Time Cycle**: 7-year cycle supportive through 2026 --- # 📋 KEY LEVELS & TARGETS **Critical Price Levels** *# Immediate (Next 48 Hours) *Ultra Resistance**: 23,690-23,750 *Strong Resistance**: 23,625-23,640 *Minor Resistance**: 23,580-23,600 *Pivot Point**: 23,514 (current) *Minor Support**: 23,465-23,480 *Strong Support**: 23,420-23,450 *Ultra Support**: 23,350-23,380 *# Short-term (1-2 Weeks) *Bull Target 1**: 24,100-24,200 *Bull Target 2**: 24,600-24,800 *Bear Target 1**: 23,000-23,100 *Bear Target 2**: 22,600-22,800 *# Medium-term (1-3 Months) *Primary Upside**: 25,000-25,500 *Extended Upside**: 26,000-26,800 *Primary Downside**: 21,500-22,000 *Extended Downside**: 20,000-20,500 --- # 📅 DAILY TRADING STRATEGIES (WEEK OF AUG 26-30, 2025) **MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 2025** *# Market Context *Gann Time Window**: Major turn date (High probability reversal) *Volume Expected**: Above average due to Monday open *Key Events**: Watch for gap up/down at open *# Intraday Strategy **Pre-Market Analysis (Before 9:30 AM EST)** *Gap Assessment**: - Gap Up >23,550: Look for continuation to 23,625 - Gap Down <23,480: Target 23,420 support *Volume Profile**: Confirm with higher volume for gap sustainability **Morning Session (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM EST)** **Setup 1: Breakout Play** *Entry**: Break above 23,580 with volume *Stop Loss**: 23,530 *Target 1**: 23,625 *Target 2**: 23,690 *Risk/Reward**: 1:1.8 **Setup 2: Support Bounce** *Entry**: Bounce from 23,450-23,465 zone *Stop Loss**: 23,420 *Target 1**: 23,520 *Target 2**: 23,580 *Risk/Reward**: 1:2.6 **Afternoon Session (12:00 PM - 4:00 PM EST)** **Setup 3: Range Trading** *Buy Zone**: 23,465-23,485 *Sell Zone**: 23,565-23,585 *Stops**: Outside range by 25 points *Scalping Opportunity**: 5-15 minute timeframes **Daily Risk Management** *Max Risk**: 2% of account *Position Size**: Adjust for increased volatility (Gann date) *News Watch**: Fed officials' speeches, tech earnings --- **TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2025** *# Market Context *Technical Focus**: Follow-through from Monday's action *Volatility**: Expected to decrease from Monday *Pattern Completion**: Watch for harmonic pattern triggers *# Intraday Strategy ** **Pre-Market Setup** *Trend Continuation**: If Monday bullish, look for higher lows *Reversal Signs**: If Monday bearish, watch for oversold bounce ** **Trading Sessions** **Setup 1: Trend Following** *Bullish Scenario**: - Entry: Pullback to 23,500-23,520 - Stop: 23,465 - Targets: 23,625, 23,700 *Bearish Scenario**: - Entry: Rally to 23,540-23,560 - Stop: 23,590 - Targets: 23,450, 23,380 **Setup 2: Wyckoff Spring/Upthrust** *Spring Play**: False break below 23,420, quick reversal *Upthrust Play**: False break above 23,640, quick rejection *High probability setups with tight stops** --- **WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025** *# Market Context *Mid-week Dynamics**: Typically consolidation day *Technical Pattern**: Triangle/flag pattern completion expected *Volume**: Usually lower, range-bound trading likely *# Intraday Strategy **Setup 1: Breakout Preparation** *Consolidation Range**: 23,480-23,580 *Volume Spike Required**: For any breakout attempt *False Breakout Fades**: High probability trades **Setup 2: Scalping Strategy** *Timeframe**: 5-15 minutes *Range**: 23,500-23,550 *Multiple small profits**: 15-25 point targets *Tight stops**: 10-15 points maximum --- **THURSDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025** *# Market Context *Elliott Wave**: Potential completion of correction wave *Momentum Building**: For Friday breakout *Options Activity**: Weekly expiration influence *# Intraday Strategy **Setup 1: Pre-Breakout Positioning** *Accumulation Zone**: 23,450-23,500 *Distribution Zone**: 23,580-23,630 *Position for Friday's move** **Setup 2: Momentum Trading** *Morning Gap**: Trade in direction of gap *Volume Confirmation**: Essential for sustainability *Extended Targets**: If momentum strong --- **FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2025** *# Market Context *Week-End Positioning**: Major moves often occur *Monthly Close**: Important for larger timeframe analysis *High Volume Expected**: Options expiration *# Intraday Strategy **Setup 1: Weekly Close Play** *Above 23,580**: Bullish for next week, target 23,700-23,800 *Below 23,450**: Bearish setup, target 23,300-23,200 *Volume Crucial**: For weekly close significance **Setup 2: Gap & Go/Gap & Reverse** *Gap Analysis**: Size and volume determine strategy *Large Gap**: Look for exhaustion and reversal *Small Gap**: Expect filling and continuation --- # ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK **Position Sizing Formula** *Conservative**: (Account Size × 1%) ÷ Stop Loss Distance *Moderate**: (Account Size × 2%) ÷ Stop Loss Distance *Aggressive**: (Account Size × 3%) ÷ Stop Loss Distance **Daily Limits** *Maximum Daily Loss**: 3% of account *Maximum Positions**: 3 concurrent trades *Win Rate Target**: >55% (Given R:R ratios) **Technical Stop Levels** *5M Chart**: Beyond recent high/low + spread *15M Chart**: Beyond support/resistance + 15 points *1H Chart**: Beyond key levels + 25 points *4H Chart**: Beyond major levels + 40 points --- # 📈 PROBABILITY MATRIX & SCENARIOS **Scenario Analysis** *# **Bull Case (65% Probability)** *Catalyst**: Break above 23,640 with volume *Targets**: 24,100 → 24,600 → 25,000 *Timeline**: 2-6 weeks *Volume Profile**: Above average confirmation needed **Consolidation Case (25% Probability)** *Range**: 23,200-23,700 *Duration**: 4-8 weeks *Pattern**: Triangle or flag formation *Resolution**: Eventually bullish **Bear Case (10% Probability)** *Catalyst**: Break below 23,200 with volume *Targets**: 22,800 → 22,200 → 21,500 *Timeline**: 3-10 weeks *Warning Signs**: Distribution volume patterns --- # 📊 WEEKLY PERFORMANCE TRACKING **Key Metrics to Monitor** *Win Rate**: Target >55% *Average Risk/Reward**: Target >1:2 *Maximum Drawdown**: Limit to 5% *Sharpe Ratio**: Track risk-adjusted returns *Best/Worst Days**: Analyze for patterns **Weekly Review Questions** 1. Were stop losses appropriate for volatility? 2. Did volume confirm price movements? 3. Which timeframe analysis was most accurate? 4. What patterns repeated throughout the week? 5. How did news events impact technical levels? --- # 🚨 CRITICAL ALERTS & WATCHPOINTS **Immediate Alerts (Next 24-48 Hours)** *23,640 Break**: Bullish acceleration likely *23,420 Break**: Correction deepening *Volume Spike**: >150% average confirms breakout *News Flow**: Fed communications, tech earnings **Weekly Watchpoints** *Elliott Wave Count**: Validation/invalidation levels *Harmonic Pattern Completion**: Entry opportunities *Gann Time Windows**: Reversal probability *Wyckoff Phases**: Institutional behavior clues **Monthly Considerations** *Seasonal Patterns**: September historically weak *Options Expiration**: Third Friday volatility *Earnings Season**: Individual stock impacts on index *Federal Reserve**: Policy meeting outcomes --- **⚡ FINAL NOTE**: This analysis represents a convergence of multiple technical methodologies. Always combine with fundamental analysis and maintain strict risk management. Market conditions can change rapidly, requiring strategy adjustments. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by sunya
1