Nasdaq and S&P500 Short: A multi-factor analysisIn this long video, I go through why I think the equity markets are going to crash in August.
Here are the important points:
1. I talk about the stealth liquidity which is the reverse repo balance being drawn down and almost emptied.
2. The risk-off asset classes rising: Gold, Japanese Yen.
3. The risk-on asset classes falling: Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Ethereum.
Here's my outlook for the markets from now till September FOMC:
1. The equity markets, USDJPY, Bitcoin, and Ethereum will crash.
2. 3-month treasury yield will fall below 4.25% and even below 4%.
3. Fed will cut target rates to be within the 3-month treasury yield.
As usual, good luck in your trading and keep your risks tight!
USTECH100MINICFD trade ideas
NAS100 – Supply Zone Rejection Trade IdeaPrice has entered a strong supply zone (highlighted in blue), where previous selling pressure originated. A sharp move up has now slowed within this zone, potentially signaling a distribution phase or exhaustion of bullish momentum.
🔰 Key Levels:
🟦 Supply Zone: 23,170 – 23,260
🔵 Mid Support: 22,995.13 (Potential retracement level)
🟧 Demand Zone: 22,680 – 22,750
🔽 Red arrows indicate potential downside targets.
🧠 Smart Money Perspective:
Price has filled the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and tapped into a low-volume node on the visible range volume profile.
Signs of liquidity sweep and exhaustion within the supply zone.
Possible short setup forming if price confirms a Change of Character (CHOCH) on LTF (e.g., break of short-term bullish structure).
💡 Trade Idea:
Short Entry: On confirmation inside supply zone
SL: Above 23,260
TP1: 22,995 (reaction level)
TP2: 22,737 (major demand zone)
Watch for a reaction at the 22,995 level; if price slices through, the next destination may be the orange demand block.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
🔖 Hashtags:
#NAS100 #SmartMoney #PriceAction #SupplyZone #OrderBlock #CHOCH #LuxAlgo #FrankFx14 #TradingView #US100
NASDAQ Week 32 OutlookOn the US Nas 100 1-hour chart, a bearish breakout from a symmetrical triangle suggests downward momentum. The Fair Value Gap at 23,500.0 is a pivotal level—watch for a breakout and retest here to confirm sell entries. Aim for the target at 22681.1, with a stop-loss at 23,740.4 to protect against adverse moves.
Nasdaq h4✅ NASDAQ H4 – Premium Short Setup
📊 What we are looking at:
✔️ H4 FVG (Fair Value Gap)
✔️ H4 Order Block (OB)
✔️ H4 CRT (Candle Range Theory)
✔️ Trendline Liquidity already taken out
📌 Game Plan:
Price swept trendline liquidity and is now pushing towards H4 FVG.
As soon as it retests the FVG and taps into OB & CRT zone, we’ll look for SELL opportunities from this premium area.
🎯 Target: Next liquidity pool below.
⚠️ Patience = Profit. Wait for confirmation before entry.
🔥 Smart Money never chases – it waits for the market to deliver.
US100 Price Action InsightUS100 Price Action Insight
In recent analysis, we’ve seen the US100 drop multiple times last month by around 3.5% to 4%, but each time it quickly bounced back, showing that these moves were simply buying opportunities during deep pullbacks.
This time, the index fell by about 4.3% due to fears over new tariffs on August 1st, but it's already recovering, which suggests that the bullish trend remains intact.
If momentum continues, US100 could retest the highs near 23,680, and potentially break above to 24,000 or even 24,500.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
NAS100 - IMPORTANT UPDATEDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Investors imposed a very strong recovery attempt.
Daily tweezer close.
As it stands, potential for a "BEARISH" sentiment is wavering.
1) Will price come all the way back to main demand for a second leg?
2) Will price only retrace back into discount for a higher right foot?
Keynote:
Investors show confidence/hopeful for a near term rate cut...
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
NAS100 Trade Idea: Liquidity Sweep & Bullish Reversal Potential📊 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Trade Outlook 📈
The NASDAQ 100 is holding a strong bullish trend on the higher timeframes 🟢. However, we’re currently seeing a notable pullback into a key support zone ⚠️ — price has dipped beneath previous lows, tapping into what appears to be an institutional accumulation range 🏦.
This move is likely targeting the liquidity resting below those lows 💧, where sell stops are positioned. Price is also reacting off a significant bullish order block 🧱 — a confluence area that could produce a strong reversal.
🎯 What to look for next:
Wait for a bullish break in market structure 🔁 to confirm a potential entry. If that occurs, consider a long setup with your stop loss below the swing low 🛑 and a 1:2 risk-to-reward target 🎯.
🚫 This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
Technical Analysis Forecast for NAS100Open Price: 23242.3 (UTC+4)
1. Japanese Candlestick Analysis
4H/1H: Price opened at 23242.3 near resistance (23250–23300). Recent candles show bearish harami (4H) and dark cloud cover (1H), signaling rejection.
30M/15M: Gravestone doji at 23242.3 and three black crows indicate strong bearish momentum.
5M: Shooting star formation suggests exhaustion. Failure to close above 23250 confirms weakness.
Outlook: Bearish reversal likely if 23200 breaks.
2. Harmonic Patterns
4H/1H: Bearish Butterfly Pattern completing at 23242.3 (D-point).
PRZ: 23240–23250 (confluence of 127.2% XA and 161.8% BC).
Fibonacci Ratios: AB=CD symmetry (23240–23250).
30M: Bullish Crab forming at 23100, but secondary to larger bearish setup.
Outlook: High-probability short entry at 23240–23250 with target 23000.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
4H: Wave 5 of impulse cycle peaked at 23242.3.
Structure: Completed 5-wave sequence from 22800 → 23242.3.
Corrective Phase: ABC pullback targeting 23000 (Wave A) and 22850 (Wave C).
1H: Sub-wave (v) of 5 ending at 23242.3. RSI divergence confirms exhaustion.
Outlook: Bearish correction to 22850–23000 within 24 hours.
4. Wyckoff Theory
Phase: Distribution (after markup from 22800 → 23242.3).
Signs: High volume at 23242.3 (supply), upthrust above 23300 failed.
Schematic: Phase C (markdown) initiating.
1H/30M: Spring at 23200 failed to hold, indicating weak demand.
Outlook: Break below 23200 triggers markdown to 23000.
5. W.D. Gann Theory
Time Theory
24H Cycle: Key reversal windows:
UTC+4: 08:00–10:00 (resistance test), 14:00–16:00 (trend reversal).
Square of 9: 23242.3 aligns with 0° angle (resistance).
Square of 9
23242.3 → Resistance Angles:
0° (23250), 90° (23350), 180° (23450).
Support: 45° (23000), 315° (22850).
Price Forecast: Reversal at 23250 (0° angle).
Angle Theory
4H Chart: 1x1 Gann Angle (45°) from 22800 low at 23000. Price above angle = bullish, but overextended.
1H Chart: 2x1 Angle (63.75°) at 23242.3 acting as resistance.
Squaring of Price & Time
Price Range: 22800 → 23242.3 (442.3 points).
Time Squaring: 442.3 hours from 22800 low → 23250 resistance (442.3 points ≈ 442.3 hours).
Harmony: 23242.3 = Time Cycle Peak (24H from open).
Ranges in Harmony
Primary Range: 22800–23500 (700 points).
50% Retracement: 23150 (support).
61.8% Retracement: 23000 (critical support).
Secondary Range: 23000–23300 (300 points).
Key Levels: 23150 (50%), 23000 (61.8%).
Price & Time Forecasting
Price Targets:
Short-Term: 23000 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
Extension: 22850 (100% of prior correction).
Time Targets:
First Reversal: 8–12 hours from open (UTC+4 12:00–16:00).
Second Reversal: 20–24 hours (UTC+4 00:00–04:00 next day).
Synthesized 24H Forecast
Bearish Scenario (High Probability)
Trigger: Break below 23200 (confirmed by 1H/30M close).
Targets:
T1: 23000 (61.8% Fib, Gann 45° angle).
T2: 22850 (Wyckoff markdown, Elliott Wave C).
Timeline:
8–12H: Drop to 23000 (UTC+4 12:00–16:00).
20–24H: Test 22850 (UTC+4 00:00–04:00 next day).
Confirmation: RSI <50 on 1H, volume spike >25% average.
Bullish Scenario (Low Probability)
Trigger: Sustained close above 23300 (Gann 0° angle).
Targets: 23350 (90° angle), 23450 (180° angle).
Timeline: 12–16 hours (if 23300 breaks).
Is the NASDAQ Vault Open for a Full Bullish Heist?🧠 NASDAQ Heist Masterplan: Thieves Eye on 24,500 🎯💰
🚨 Asset: NASDAQ100 / US100 / NDX
📊 Plan: Bullish | 🔁 Layering Strategy
🎯 Target: 24,500
🛑 Stop Loss: 22,600
📍 Entry: Any level – the vault’s wide open!
💼 Thief Trader's NASDAQ High-Stakes Robbery Is LIVE! 🤑📈
Welcome, money bandits & market looters! 💼💰
The time has come to launch a full-scale bullish raid on the NASDAQ fortress. We’re not just taking entries — we’re stacking them like a pro with our layered limit order strategy across swing zones. 🔫📉➡️📈
🔓 Entry:
Pick any price! We break in anytime, anywhere.
🔁 Stack your buy limits on 15m–30m swing lows.
🔔 Set your alerts – don’t let the opportunity slip.
🛑 Stop Loss:
Guard your loot at 22,600.
Risk management is the bulletproof vest in this raid. 🎯
Adjust your SL based on lot size and order volume. 📏🔐
🎯 Profit Target:
Thieves retreat at 24,500.
But hey – smart robbers use trailing SL to squeeze every last drop of gold! 🏆💸
💡 Scalpers & Swingers:
Stick to the long side only.
If your pockets are deep – full-send mode ON.
If not, tag along with swing entries. Patience pays big! 💎⏳
📢 Heads Up, Heist Crew:
News drops = landmines. Step carefully.
🚷 No new entries during major announcements.
🛡️ Use trailing SL to defend your profit bags.
🚨 Daily Reminder:
This market isn’t a playground. It’s a battlefield.
Use COT data, macro reports, sentiment scans, and index-specific triggers to fortify your robbery blueprint. Stay smart, stay updated! 📊🧠
💥 Boost Our Loot Crew 💥
Hit that LIKE ❤️ to support the Thief Army!
Stronger visibility = Bigger Loots = More Victory Runs.
See you at the next robbery – we move in silence, but the market hears us loud! 🐱👤💸🔥🚀
NAS100 | 1H Bullish Continuation Setup – Aug 4, 2025Here’s a complete **TradingView trade description** for your NAS100 setup based on the chart you shared — using Smart Money Concepts, market structure, and intraday context:
---
**NAS100 | 1H Bullish Continuation Setup – Aug 4, 2025**
### 🔹 Market Bias:
* **Daily**: Bearish
* **4H**: Bearish
* **1H**: Bullish structure forming
* **15min**: Bullish BOS + internal structure break
---
### 🧠 Trade Narrative (SMC-Based):
Price created a **liquidity sweep + slight CHoCH** on the 15min inside a discount zone. After the sweep, we saw strong bullish displacement on the 1H, shifting momentum temporarily back to buyers.
We've now returned to the **origin of the impulsive move (POI)** and are looking for **continuation into premium**, targeting the nearest inefficiency + supply zone above.
Entry taken from a refined OB with **Buy Limit at 22,949.6**, aligned with:
* Internal liquidity resting below
* 50% of the bullish candle
* Structure support formed after BOS
---
### 📌 Entry Criteria:
* **Buy Limit**: 22,949.6
* **SL**: Below recent low / zone invalidation (e.g., below 22,922.4)
* **TP1**: 23,056.6 (1H imbalance + prior S/R flip)
* **Extended TP**: 23,122.7 (origin of H4 supply zone)
* **RR**: \~3.2R to TP1
🛑 Before entry: Wait for **LQ grab + internal confirmation** (e.g., M5 rejection wick or engulfing).
---
### 🧩 Confluences:
* ✅ Internal liquidity sweep
* ✅ BOS + CHoCH (15M + 1H structure)
* ✅ Entry refined to OB with imbalance
* ✅ Targeting clean inefficiency + unmitigated supply
* ✅ Volume and momentum shift support continuation
---
**⚠️ Invalidation**: Clean break below 22,922.4 structure + bearish engulfing = setup no longer valid.
---
USNAS100 Holds Bearish Below 23045USNAS100 – Overview
The index maintains a bearish momentum as long as it trades below the pivot zone between 22990 and 23045.
To confirm a bullish reversal, the price must break above 23045 and close a 1H candle above it.
On the downside, a break below 22875 would reinforce bearish pressure, opening the path toward the next support at 22720.
Support: 22875 • 22720
Resistance: 23150 • 23295
Bias:
🔻 Bearish below 23045
🔺 Bullish only with a confirmed 1H close above 23045
Nasdaq Index (US100 / NASDAQ) Technical Analysis:The Nasdaq index experienced a sharp drop last week, as expected, testing the 22,680$ level. Today, it's showing signs of a corrective move, currently trading around 22,950$.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If the price drops back to 22,680$ and breaks below it with confirmation, the next support could be 22,400$.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If buying momentum pushes the price above 23,000$, and it holds, we may see an extension toward 23,240$ and possibly 23,500$.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
Nasdaq 100 Bearish Divergence Signals Potential 30% down ?Chart Analysis (Monthly):
The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is showing a significant bearish divergence on the monthly chart with RSI, which historically has been a strong reversal signal. While the price has recently made a new high, the RSI has failed to confirm this move, forming lower highs. This divergence typically precedes major corrections in the index. Similar patters have been observed on S&P 500 and FANG+ Index.
Historical Context:
In past instances (highlighted on the chart), similar divergences led to substantial declines:
2018: ~23% drop
2022: ~37% drop
Currently, if history repeats, the NDX could potentially correct by ~30% from recent highs, bringing it closer to the 16,000–17,000 zone, aligning with the previous demand zone and the 100-month moving average.
Fundamental Backdrop – Tariff Issues:
Adding to the technical weakness, renewed concerns over U.S. trade tariffs under Trump's policy stance are resurfacing. Potential escalation in tariffs could weigh heavily on mega-cap tech stocks, which dominate NDX, impacting global supply chains and margins. Historically, tariff-related uncertainty has triggered volatility in growth-heavy sectors.
Watchlist Action:
Closely monitor upcoming U.S. trade policy announcements and tariff discussions.
Hedge long positions or consider selective short opportunities if bearish confirmation patterns appear on weekly/daily timeframes.
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
NAS100 - Stock Market Heading Down?!The index is trading in its medium-term ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe between the EMA200 and EMA50. However, if the index corrects upward towards the specified supply zone, it is possible to sell Nasdaq with better risk-reward.
In recent days and weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index once again approached its historic highs, even setting a new all-time record. However, following the latest jobs data and the Federal Reserve meeting, the index experienced a price correction.
Unlike many previous bullish phases that were driven largely by short-term momentum or emotional reactions, the current upward trend in the Nasdaq reflects structural maturity and market stabilization. Institutional capital inflows and strong corporate earnings have together painted a picture of a more stable and predictable future for this index.
According to recent financial data, U.S. equity funds received over $6.3 billion in net inflows during the final week of July—marking the first positive inflow after three consecutive weeks of outflows.
The key engine behind this growth continues to be the robust performance of tech companies. Firms such as Meta, Microsoft, and AI-oriented companies like Nvidia and Broadcom posted exceptionally strong earnings reports. These results not only exceeded analysts’ expectations but also fueled significant gains in their stock prices, contributing to the Nasdaq’s momentum. Despite some sector-specific concerns—for instance, regarding Qualcomm in the semiconductor space—the broader tech sector has sustained its upward trajectory and even extended that momentum to adjacent industries, especially those involved in cloud and AI supply chains.
Meanwhile, advisors to Donald Trump revealed that he plans sweeping reforms at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This announcement followed the July jobs report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs and sharp downward revisions to prior months’ figures.
On Truth Social, Trump accused the current BLS Commissioner, Erica McEnturfer, of politically manipulating employment data and ordered her immediate removal. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer subsequently announced that Deputy Commissioner William Witrofsky would serve as acting head. Trump emphasized that economic data must be accurate, impartial, and trustworthy—and not politically skewed.
Following this leadership change, a broader debate has emerged around how employment statistics are collected and reported. While statistical revisions have long been a routine, non-political process since 1979, there are now growing questions about whether a better system for gathering and publishing this critical data could be developed.
As a nonpartisan branch of the Department of Labor, the BLS publishes its monthly employment report at 8:30 AM Eastern on the first Friday of each month. The data is gathered from surveys of around 629,000 business establishments.
Analysts have cited several reasons for the frequent need for revisions:
• Late responses from firms
• Delays from large corporations that distort preliminary figures
• Recalculations due to seasonal adjustments (e.g., holidays or weather)
• Demographic shifts impacted by immigration or deportation
• Annual revisions based on finalized tax records
With a relatively light economic calendar in the U.S. this week, traders have turned their focus to the latest developments in trade negotiations—particularly talks with countries that have yet to finalize trade agreements with Washington.
Although the U.S. has reached deals with key partners including the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, no formal agreement has yet been made with China to extend the current trade truce, which is set to expire on August 12.
The new U.S. tariff plan proposes a baseline 10% rate for most countries, but some—like India and Switzerland—face much higher rates of 25% and 39%, respectively. However, since implementation of the tariffs has been postponed until August 7, there’s still time for further negotiations and possible rate reductions. Sources close to the White House suggest the administration is eager to continue talks.
What’s now becoming clear is the sheer magnitude of the proposed tariff shifts—far beyond pre-trade-war averages. These changes could have more severe consequences than previously estimated, potentially pushing up U.S. inflation while simultaneously threatening global growth. As such, markets may be entering a fresh wave of volatility.
Compounding these concerns is the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming bond issuance schedule, which could add to market instability.
Also on the radar is the ISM Services PMI for July, due Tuesday. Its results will be closely watched for signs on the U.S. dollar’s direction and the Fed’s potential actions at its September meeting.
Notably, as of July 18, 2025, the widely-followed Buffett Indicator—measuring the ratio of market capitalization to GDP—was 2.3 standard deviations above its historical average. This level surpasses even the dot-com bubble era of the early 2000s. The indicator is now firmly in the “overvalued” zone, which often precedes market corrections or even crashes. For context, during the 2008 financial crisis, it was roughly 1.5 standard deviations below the historical norm.
NAS100: Bullish Reversal from Key Support ZoneFirstly, our Algo-based indicators are used to create this analysis:
This 1-hour chart for NAS100 highlights a strong bullish reversal from a critical support level, suggesting a potential move back towards recent highs.
Analysis:
Support Bounce: The index experienced a sharp sell-off but found significant buying pressure within a key support zone marked between 22,677 and 22,829. This area, labeled "LSQB" (Liquidity Sweep Order Block) and including the "Daily Open," acted as a strong floor, triggering a V-shaped recovery.
Momentum Shift: The oscillator at the bottom of the chart confirms this shift in momentum. After dipping into the oversold "BUY" zone, the indicator has sharply reversed and is trending upwards with conviction, as indicated by the projected black arrow. This suggests that buyers have taken control in the short term.
Moving Averages: The price has decisively reclaimed the EMA 200 (the main green line), a key indicator often used to gauge the longer-term trend on a given timeframe. Holding above this level is a strong bullish sign.
Price Projection: The drawn black line illustrates the expected price path—a continued rally from the current level back towards the red resistance zone near the recent high of approximately 23,700.
Strategy:
Position: Long (Buy)
Entry: The bounce from the support zone has already been confirmed. Current levels could be seen as an entry, or traders might look for a minor pullback that holds above the EMA 200.
Target: The primary target is the red resistance zone around the 23,700 level.
Conclusion:
With the price reacting strongly to a key liquidity zone and momentum indicators confirming a bullish reversal, the path of least resistance for NAS100 appears to be upwards. The immediate target for this recovery is the recent high near 23,700.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
SWING TRADE NASDAQIs this another case of Trump moving the markets so his buddies can get better entries? 👀
Not saying anything... but July candles were way too friendly in that yellow box. Institutions were loading up like it was Black Friday.
I jumped in too—snagged a clean 10RR 😎📈
Now, with seasonality (August 3.5% average past 10 years) + Commitment of traders data backing me up( July COT is heavy longs), I’m risking light for a tiny 27RR setup.
Will it work? No clue.
Will I be dramatic about it? Absolutely. 🎭📉📈
NASDAQ technical analyse.📉 NAS100 Technical Analysis – Potential Reversal Zone Identified (4H Chart)
Price has seen a strong bearish move, breaking through multiple support levels. Currently, it is approaching a key demand zone between 22,600 – 22,420, which previously acted as strong support in early July.
I'm watching two potential scenarios from this level:
🔹 Scenario A (Blue Path): A bullish reversal from the current zone, targeting the 23,400 area. This would require confirmation with bullish candlestick patterns or momentum divergence.
🔸 Scenario B (Red Path): A deeper dip into the demand zone (towards 22,420), followed by a stronger bounce. This could offer a better risk-to-reward long entry if bullish structure forms.
🔻 Invalid if price closes decisively below 22,400, breaking structure and invalidating the reversal setup.
Let me know your thoughts. Are you going long or still waiting for confirmation?