
Community discussions

Price has moved almost vertically since April without forming many clear higher lows on the daily timeframe. Recently, I noticed a break below the main trendline, and price now seems to be testing that line from underneath, which could turn into a break-and-retest setup.
The 200-day SMA hasn’t been touched since May, and there’s also a CME gap and breaker block area aligning around the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (roughly 20k–21.8k). That region might act as a magnet if a deeper correction unfolds.
In the short term, a relief rally or liquidity sweep could still play out before any confirmed move lower. I’ll be watching how price behaves around this broken trendline and the previous highs. If it rejects here, a move toward 23.8k → 21.8k wouldn’t surprise me.
If price instead reclaims the ATH and holds above, my bearish theory is invalidated.
But I keep in mind that markets have been very unpredictable lately, news headlines and sudden social media comments can shift sentiment within minutes.
Some key points worth mentioning:
• ATR (4H) doubled on Friday from around 100 → 210 after two months of stability.
• VIX remains above 20, signaling heightened volatility and uncertainty.
• NASDAQ currently trades about 13.7% above its 200-day SMA, showing how extended the market is.
• The 200-day SMA hasn’t been touched in over five months. Uncommon to see in prolonged uptrends.

