Trade ideas
Bearish drop?Dow Jones (US30) could rise to the pivot, whichis a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 46,211.80
1st Support: 45,274.72
1st Resistance: 46,876.77
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish momentum to extend?Dow Jones (US30) is reacting off the pivot, which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 46,211.24
1st Support: 45,848.06
1st Resistance: 45,759.22
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
The next market crash is nearhello everyone, its been some time since i last posted but i want to post a market update and warn investors/ traders around the world about a near market correction/recession.
for some months already we have seen markets hit ATH back to back showing great market strength and a very bullish trend. i do think this will continue for a bit of time or continue into a range before having a final pump up to another ATH as shown in the charts below.
first i will start off with the patterns that was seen before the 2008 recession.
as we see in the chart from 2008 we enter what i call "the final range" here is where we see markets ranging right at all time high or near it right after a strong bullish movement. after this range we can see markets enter the "final pump up" zone where we see the markets give off the final movement up which usually is the strongest move out of any previous movement in this cycle. typically when you see a market pump up the last candle before a strong sell off is usually a strong pump up.
now looking at these patterns from 2008 we will see how similar the compare to the ones from 2020.
this chart from 2020 we can see a similar pattern forming like we did in 2008.
first we enter that ranging zone near all time highs for a bit of time before entering into a not very strong push up but it did break this zone giving us new all time highs. after that we enter into a sell off phase.
now looking back at these two instances we will look at how they compare to todays market and what we can expect in the upcoming months/ years.
looking at todays market we can see markets are right about all time highs but due to it reaching a important fib level i do think that it is perfect set up for the market to start ranging in this zone as we saw near the 1.68 fib level. here is where i think we will see the final range before we get a final pump up.
taking a fractal back from around 2018-2019 and placing it on the patterns forming in todays market as we see below:
here we can see how similar the fractal and todays market look. i think this is a very important confirmation supporting my claims.
that being said that is not the only thing supporting my idea. next i will show you the yield inversions and what patterns are forming and what they all had in common before a market crash.
in this chart we see the 10 year 2 year yield curve chart. now this chart is very important because before any major crash/ recession usually we see a inversion between these two.
markets don't usually correct right after it inverts but looking at the chart we can see that once it reaches .7-1.0% that is usually when the market tops off and the start of the recession starts.
we seen this happen in 1990, 2001, 2008, 2020, and now present day we see it coming real close to those levels right after a inversion meaning we could be soon see a market recession coming extremely soon after the final steps of this cycle are complete.
in my personal opinion i think markets could reach levels up to 50-60k before selling off but after that i do think a significant market crash will occur.
US30 Trade Plan – Range Breakout + Smart Money ManipulationI’m currently watching the US30 (Dow Jones Index) 🏦. On the 4-hour timeframe, we can see a strong uptrend forming — higher highs and higher lows 📈. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen, but having a solid trading plan is key ✅.
Here’s mine: On the 30-minute timeframe, price is currently moving within a defined range. If we see a break above the range, followed by a retracement and failed retest of the range high, I’ll be looking for a long opportunity 🚀.
If price instead breaks below the range, there could also be a short opportunity, though my preference is to stay long given the higher-timeframe bullish structure ⚙️.
⚠️ Keep an eye out for market manipulation — smart money algorithms often trigger fake breakouts to draw in buyers before sweeping liquidity and continuing the move. Stay alert and manage risk carefully.
📉 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
US30 BuyLooking for a pull back to my zone for a possible buy. Adjust your stop loss accordingly as sometimes mine is too tifgt depends on your risk will see what happens
Us30 Trade Set Up Oct 17 2025Im overall still bearish so if we get a BOS of the 15m high i will expect price to target 4h FVG before continuing down to SSL levels or i would want to see price close under 15m swing low to then continue down
US30: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse US30 together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 46,422.01 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 46,148.32 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Dow Jones Returns to the 46,000 Level Since the beginning of the week, the Dow Jones Index has maintained a notable bullish bias, extending a two-day winning streak as the equity benchmark posts a gain of around 2.20% in the short term. For now, buying pressure has supported the price recovery following the sharp correction seen last Friday, which was triggered by the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States.
Although no major trade agreement has been announced, the aggressive tone of the tariff threats appears to have eased slightly, helping the market regain confidence in the short term. However, it’s important to note that if tensions escalate again, the Dow Jones could once more show heightened sensitivity to such developments, quickly reactivating selling pressure in the coming trading sessions.
Uptrend at Risk
The uptrend line, which had been sustained through much of 2025, has started to weaken following last Friday’s sharp correction. As a result, the average bullish momentum has entered a neutral zone in the short term. Currently, there is a recovery attempt from the previous downward move, though it has not yet been strong enough to bring prices back to recent highs.
If buying pressure fails to remain decisive over the next few sessions, a period of market indecision could emerge, potentially leading to a sideways range in the short term.
RSI
The RSI line continues to hover around the 50 level, reflecting a neutral momentum over the past 14 sessions. As long as the indicator stays within this range, neutrality may dominate the market bias, leading to indecisive price movements in the coming days.
MACD
The MACD histogram also remains near the neutral (0) level, indicating that there is no clear directional strength in short-term moving averages. This reinforces the idea of indecision in the market, suggesting that the price action may remain range-bound without a defined trend in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch:
46,790 points – Major Resistance: Corresponds to the all-time high area of the index. Buying activity approaching or surpassing this level could reactivate the bullish trend and establish a dominant buying bias.
45,741 points – Near-Term Barrier: Aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. As long as prices continue to fluctuate around this level, a new short-term consolidation range could form.
44,834 points – Critical Support: Represents the most stable neutral zone in recent weeks and coincides with the Ichimoku cloud boundary in the short term. A decisive break below this level could trigger a stronger bearish bias, putting the year-long uptrend at risk and potentially signaling the start of a new downward phase in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
US30The Dow looks fragile. After running hard, momentum is slowing. It’s bumping into resistance zones while technicals suggest a pullback may be looming. If key support breaks, we could see a sharp slide.
ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT 5-YEAR BULL CYCLEWe would look at the 20 year cycle in the stock market, there are two individual 20-year cycles running together at a time. One cycle defines tops and the other identifies the major market lows. We would also look at the 20- year periodicity of repeating market fractals and the 5-year bull cycle that commences at the beginning of each 20-year cycle.
In subsequent updates we will identify the 8 - 13 subdivision of the 20-year cycle. To make the chart clean we have only indicated the cycle that defines bottoms. Top cycles will be identified in the description and both cycles combined on one linear scale to see how they relate to the 5-year bull cycle.
Our pivot point is taken at the 22nd August 1921 low.
First Cycle duration:
22/08/1921 - 27/04/1942 = (7553 days /1079 weeks /248.2 months)
= 20 years, 08 months, 05 days.
Cycle 2:
27/04/1942 - 25/06/1962 = (7364 days / 1052 weeks / 242 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 29 days.
Cycle 3:
25/06/1962 - 16/08/1982 = (7357 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 months, 22 days
Cycle 4:
16/08/1982 - 07/10/2002 = (7352 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 21 days
Cycle 5:
07/10/2002 - 10/10/2022 = (7308 days / 1044 weeks / 240.1 months)
= 20 years, 0 month, 03 days
By observation, cycle 3 and 4 have the same duration 7357 days while cycle 2 is (+7 days) off 7357 days, i.e 1 candle on the weekly timeframe. Now, looking at the beginning points of each cycle, within the identified ellipses we see a striking fractal that has been consistent in all 5 cycles.
Cycle 1 and 2
Cycle 3 and 4
Cycle 5 and 6
The 20-year cycle that defines tops are on :
27th May 1946
7th February 1966
24th August 1987
8th October 2007
XX - XX - 2027
Cycle 1 origin point is on 22/08/1921 but has a split focus at two points, one on the 1921 pivot and the other on the much popular May 1924 low.
Representing both cycles (Bottoms and tops)
This shows that between the two origin points is approximately a 5-year cycle
This cycle is actually an astrocycle and varies according to the changing speed.
By observation, Fractal 1 is very much identical to fractal 4 and fracal 2 very much identical to 5. A time span of 60 years averagely separate fractals 1 and 4 as well as 2 and 5. This leaves the 1962 - 1966 cycle, 60 years from 1962 puts the origin for the new identical fractal at the October 2022 low.
The above justifies that if the cycle is not inverted then a point on the current price action should not be broken. Also it negates the numerous calls for a crash that has been chanted since the 2020 low and never materialized.
HOWEVER, there is the 101-year cycle which alternate tops for bottoms and vice versa after its completion, and considering the pivot from 22/08/1921 the 101 years ended at the October 2022 low.
Interesting... check back as we would go through the numerical expansions that shed more light on what to expect forward, price levels, and time resistances.
Thanks for your time, all opinions are much appreciated, questions would be answered too.
Good luck.
US30 LONGThis is what im looking for in NY session waiting for a candlestick engulfing or pin bar or any bullish rejection form the zone to the upsisde. This is base of the 4hr time frame analysis
US30 Eyes 46,200 Support as Bulls Prepare for Next Leg Higher!Hey Traders,
In today’s session, we’re monitoring US30 for a potential buying opportunity around the 46,200 zone. The Dow Jones remains within a clear uptrend, and price is currently in a healthy correction phase, approaching a key confluence of support and trendline structure near 46,200.
A sustained reaction from this level could signal a continuation of bullish momentum in the broader equity market.
Trade safe,
Joe.
US30 Long Trade, US30 to hit 47,317CAPITALCOM:US30 Long Trade
Entry: 46,321 - 46,700
TP: 47,317
This is good trade.
Don't overload your risk like Greedy gambler!!!
Be Disciplined Trader, risk what you can afford.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky, only idea, not advice.
US30 (DJI) Technical Forecast: Navigating Critical JunctureThe US30 consolidates near a significant technical inflection point at 46,233.8 . Our multi-timeframe analysis reveals a battle between bullish structure and emerging bearish divergences.
📊 Multi-Timeframe Synthesis & Market Structure
Daily (Trend Bias): The primary trend remains bullish above the key support confluence of 4 5,800 (50 EMA & Rising Trendline). However, price is testing the lower boundary of a bullish channel. A break below 45,800 would signal a deeper correction towards 45,200.
4H & 1H (Swing Setup): The index is forming a potential Bearish Rising Wedge . RSI on the 4H chart shows a clear bearish divergence, indicating weakening momentum. This is a cautionary sign for swing bulls.
Intraday (15M/5M - Precision): Price is trapped between immediate resistance at 46,450 and support at 46,100. The 5M chart shows Anchored VWAP (from yesterday's low) acting as dynamic resistance. A break below 46,100 targets 45,950.
🧠 Key Technical Narratives & Theories
Elliott Wave & Wyckoff: The pullback from the recent high exhibits characteristics of a Wave 4 correction or a Wyckoffian re-distribution phase. Volume analysis on breakdowns will be key.
Gann Angle & Square of 9: Critical Gann support resides near 45,950-46,000. A decisive break below this zone opens the path for a move towards the next Gann square level near 45,500.
Ichimoku Cloud: On the 4H, price is hovering above the Kumo (cloud). The Tenkan-Sen (red line) is flat, indicating short-term equilibrium. A break below the cloud would be a strong bearish trigger.
⚖️ Momentum & Volume Assessment
RSI (14): Reading of 52 on the 1D, neutral but leaning bearish on lower timeframes with divergences.
Bollinger Bands (20): Price is pressing the middle band (20 SMA). A sustained break below it often signals a shift to a short-term bearish phase.
Anchored VWAP & Volume: Recent up-moves have occurred on declining volume, suggesting a lack of strong bullish conviction—a potential bull trap formation.
🛠️ Trade Plan & Levels
Swing Short Idea: Consider shorts on a break & close below 46,100 (15M), targeting 45,800 and 45,500. Stop loss above 46,550.
Intraday Long Idea: Only above 46,450 (with volume), targeting 46,700. Stop loss below 46,300.
Intraday Short Idea: On a rejection from 46,450 or break of 46,100, targeting 45,950.
💡 The Bottom Line
The US30 is at a critical decision point. The bullish trend is under threat until price reclaims 46,700. The weight of evidence from divergences and pattern formation favors a bearish breakdown in the short term. Risk is elevated; position size accordingly.
Disclaimer: This is technical analysis, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Us30 Trade Set Up Oct 16 2025Price is trading in between PDH/PDL and has filled a 4h and 1h bearish FVG so for sells id want to see London highs/BSL swept but closed under followed by internal 1m bearish structure to take sells to Asia lows/SSL or PDL but for buys id want to see Asia lows/SSl swept first to then look for bullish structure on the 1m to catch buys to PDH
Us30 Trade Set Up Oct 15 2025Price has swept PDH and has formed a bullish 4h FVG which i am expecting price to come to 50% of it before continuing higher
US30 UpdateNext move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Key Reason:
1. BSL hunting still in pending.
2. Hidden OB formation.
3. When price tap this area and rejected this area along with strong volume. Then we'll see a upside move.
This is not a financial advise. Confirmation is most important. Let's see how it will work.
The ugliest crash in our history close? I truly believe with western powers developing digital IDs and other technology, etc. to monitor and control the public... and in some cases replace the human race... it's in line with what I believe will be one of the biggest market crashes in human history, equal or bigger to 1929.
GET READY.
IT WILL HAPPEN WITHIN THE BLACK ZONE.
The powers in control know!
The 2030 Agenda is prepared for this.
And they are keeping the public distracted.
History repeats!
There is a purpose to everything!
Can Dow Jones Maintain Bullish Momentum? Analysis🎯 US30 Dow Jones: The Great Heist Setup! 🏦💰
📊 Asset Overview
US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) - CFD Index
Trade Type: Swing/Day Trade
Bias: BULLISH 🐂
🔍 The Master Plan: Double Moving Average Confirmation
We're hunting for a pullback retest at two critical moving averages acting as dynamic support:
✅ Simple Moving Average (SMA) alignment
✅ Kijun-Sen (Ichimoku baseline) confluence
This double confirmation gives us the green light to ride the bullish trend with institutional-level precision. Think of it as the market leaving the vault door slightly open... 🚪💎
🎯 Entry Strategy: The "Thief Layering" Method
Primary Approach: Multiple Buy Limit Orders (Layering Strategy)
Recommended Layer Entry Zones:
🟢 Layer 1: 46,000
🟢 Layer 2: 46,200
🟢 Layer 3: 46,400
💡 Pro Tip: You can add more layers based on your risk appetite and position sizing. This strategy allows you to average into the position as price pulls back to support—like catching falling diamonds! 💎
Alternative: Market execution at any pullback to the moving average confluence zone.
🛡️ Risk Management
Stop Loss: 45,600
⚠️ Important: This is MY stop loss level based on technical invalidation. You're the captain of your own ship—adjust according to YOUR risk tolerance and account size. Trade at your own risk!
🎯 Target Zone: The Police Barricade
Take Profit Target: 47,600 🚨
This level represents:
🚧 Strong resistance zone (the "Police Barricade")
📈 Potential overbought conditions
Bull trap territory
Strategy: Scale out or secure profits as we approach this level. Remember: realized profits are better than paper gains!
⚠️ Reminder: This is MY take profit target. Your exit strategy should align with your trading plan and risk management rules. Lock in profits when YOU'RE comfortable!
🌐 Correlated Assets to Watch
Keep an eye on these related instruments for confluence:
SP:SPX (S&P 500): Broad market sentiment indicator—if SPX shows strength, US30 typically follows
SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ (Nasdaq 100): Tech-heavy index correlation—risk-on appetite confirmation
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): Inverse correlation—weaker dollar often supports equity indices
TVC:TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield): Rate sensitivity—lower yields can fuel equity rallies
TVC:VIX (Volatility Index): Fear gauge—declining VIX supports bullish setups
Key Correlation Note: When these indices move in harmony with declining dollar strength, it strengthens the bullish case for US30. Watch for synchronized moves!
📝 Technical Summary
Trend: Bullish structure intact
Confirmation: Dual moving average support
Risk/Reward: Favorable with 400-1,600 point profit potential (depending on entry layer)
Time Frame: Swing to day trade duration
Strategy Style: "Thief layering" - accumulate on pullbacks
✨ If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!
⚠️ Disclaimer
This "Thief Style" trading strategy is shared for educational and entertainment purposes only. This is NOT financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always conduct your own analysis, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
#US30 #DowJones #SwingTrading #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverages #LayeringStrategy #IndexTrading #BullishSetup #TradingStrategy #CFDTrading #PriceAction #SupportAndResistance #TradingIdeas #MarketAnalysis #ThiefStyle
Us30 Trade Set Up Oct 14 2025Price has swept both PDH and PDL and has formed a bearish 4h FVG, so i will be trading with the bearish trend looking for sells after London highs get swept as liquidity and look for a 1m IFVG/CISD to target swing lows
