I'm not an oracle, but I predict good things for ORCLToday was a difficult day for the market, and not its last, I suspect, given the market's history in September. Add to that, uncertainties about tariffs back in the headlines and the potential effects the loss those revenues would have on the deficit and US Treasury rates and you have a day like we had today. That level of uncertainty is never fun to trade, so when chaos is the backdrop, I like to focus on the stocks that have proven to be good trading vehicles regardless of market conditions. That's not to say they WILL go up, but trading is about putting odds in your favor.
You could always sit out until the dust settles (not a terrible idea, tbh), but there is enough underneath the surface here in this market that I can't justify sitting on my hands right now - although with 4 week t-bill rates at 4.24 today, that's not the worst idea either. Alas, I cannot resist the market, so in I go.
Oracle has been one of the very very best performers for what I do over the years. And by years, I mean almost 40 years of real and backtested trades in ORCL. Over that span, (1100 trades), ORCL has been the 4th best performer in the universe of large cap stocks I trade for a combination of returns and safety. In times like these, I like a strong lifeboat if seas get rougher.
Over those 1100+ trades, ORCL has produced a per day held return of .23%, which is over 5x the long term average daily return for the S&P 500.
In 2025, ORCL has posted a 35% gain since Dec 31st. Over that same period, my algo has generated 13 buy signals. All have been profitable and generated a total return (excluding dividends) of +51%, and a daily rate of return of +0.42%, or almost 10x the long term market average and 7.5x the rate of return of SPY so far this year. When times are tough, it's stocks like these I turn to when I want to be able to weather the storm instead of waiting it out in cash.
Understand, though, that if we hit a really rough patch with the market, ORCL and everything else will likely not perform all that well. You can see that during the tariff tantrum earlier this year, ORCL's gains were mediocre, especially in terms of per day returns. That's to be expected. I'm hoping that while September isn't a great month, a rate cut could give things a boost later this month.
I got in at 225.10 just before the close today, and if the opportunity presents itself to add tactically before I close the trade overall, I will do so, but cautiously. This is not the time of year to get out over your skis with trades. I will update any adds or sells same day after the close as soon as reasonably possible.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
