XRP Quarterly Breakout & XRP/BTC Ratio Analysis1) The Current Technical Structure (XRP/USD)
The quarterly chart for XRP confirms a powerful technical setup:
- A classic Bollinger Band breakout on this long timeframe.
- RSI at 82 , indicating extremely strong momentum.
- The quarterly candle closed significantly above the upper band, pulled back to test it, and is now pushing higher again.
- This is the exact type of pattern that has historically preceded major multi-year bull markets in other assets.
Quarterly Data
- Q3 2024: Closed at $2.08 (massive breakout quarter).
- Q4 2024: Closed at $2.09 (consolidation at resistance).
- Q1 2025: Closed at $2.24 (reaffirmation of trend).
- Q2 2025: Closed at $2.82 (continued expansion).
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2) Historical Precedents and Outcomes
- Nasdaq (1999): Led to a 5-year rally before a significant correction.
- Gold (2006): Preceded a multi-year rally into 2011.
- Bitcoin (2017): Sparked a 3-year bull market cycle.
The failed examples:
- Oil (2008): Collapsed due to global recession and demand destruction.
- Bitcoin (2021): Failed due to excessive leverage and lack of regulatory clarity.
Key Insight: Sustained precedents coincided with fundamental shifts (tech adoption, central bank easing, institutional crypto entry). Failures were tied to crises or regulatory headwinds.
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3) XRP’s Fundamental Context
XRP stands apart from failed cases because:
- It now has regulatory clarity that Bitcoin lacked in 2021.
- There is potential ETF approval , which could bring institutional flows.
- The financial industry continues to explore blockchain-based payment solutions.
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4) Long-term Value Perspective
- Volume Confirmation: Breakout quarters showed 6–16bn vs prior lower levels, consistent with accumulation.
- Regulatory Sequenance: Momentum followed clarity, unlike Bitcoin 2021.
- Relative Valuation: Despite momentum, XRP hasn’t shown the euphoric valuations typical of late-cycle blow-offs.
Benjamin Graham’s principle applies: “The market is a voting machine in the short run, but a weighing machine in the long run.” The market here seems to be weighing XRP’s improved fundamentals.
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5) XRP/BTC Ratio Analysis – Structural Strength
Looking at the XRP/BTC pair adds critical confirmation:
- Bottoming (2023–2024): Ratio held around 0.000007–0.000008 BTC.
- Breakout (Q3–Q4 2024): Jumped to 0.000022 (≈129% vs BTC).
- Consolidation (Q1 2025): Formed higher base at 0.000020–0.000025.
- Continuation (Q2 2025): Held 0.000026 despite Bitcoin’s own strength.
This is a textbook basing → breakout → consolidation → continuation pattern on a quarterly ratio chart — much stronger evidence than USD price alone.
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6) Comparative Historical Context
- Bitcoin 2015–2017: Similar long-term basing before secular breakout.
- Ethereum 2016–2017: Ratio strength vs BTC came before ETH’s surge.
The distinction: XRP broke out after regulatory clarity, unlike BTC in 2021, which surged first and then faced challenges.
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7) Volume Analysis
- Elevated volume through the 2023–2024 base.
- Explosive volume during Q3–Q4 2024 breakout.
- Healthy, consistent participation during Q1 2025 consolidation.
- Renewed interest into Q2–Q3 2025.
This mirrors institutional accumulation profiles in traditional markets during secular shifts.
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8) Long-term Investment Perspective
From a value perspective, the XRP/BTC ratio suggests:
- Base Length: Nearly a year before breakout.
- Breakout Magnitude: More than doubled vs BTC.
- Consolidation Quality: Higher lows held above resistance.
- Regulatory Timing: Breakout followed, not preceded, clarity.
This aligns with the principle that the market is now “weighing” XRP’s improved fundamentals.
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9) Risks to Monitor
- Correlation: XRP still linked to crypto market flows.
- RSI 82: Signals potential near-term overextension.
- ETF uncertainty: Approval timelines could sway sentiment.
- Invalidation levels: A quarterly close back inside Bollinger bands (USD) or sustained loss of 0.000020–0.000022 (BTC ratio).
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10) Conclusion
Both the quarterly USD breakout and the XRP/BTC ratio strength point to a structural, early-to-mid cycle revaluation rather than late-cycle froth.
For long-term investors, this resembles the early stages of prior secular breakouts (Bitcoin 2015–2017, Ethereum 2016–2017, Gold 2006). While corrections of 30–40% are likely along the way, the structural thesis remains intact as long as the quarterly patterns hold.
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Not financial advice. Extracted directly from TrendSpider Sidekick analysis (Warren, the Long Term Investor).
