Macro Hook:
Sterling turned higher after the BoE’s hawkish lean in early August. Since then, Cable has been driven by two forces: UK’s sticky inflation (slowing the BoE’s path to cutting rates) and softer US data (feeding expectations of Fed cuts and a weaker dollar). Yesterday’s softer US PPI hinted at easing price pressures upstream, and today’s Core CPI will...
Fundamental Backdrop
Hyatt’s stock has seen significant volatility recently, driven by a mix of macroeconomic factors and company-specific challenges. In February 2025, the stock dropped due to a Q4 earnings miss, a cautious 2025 outlook, and concerns around the Playa acquisition. However, it rebounded in April 2025, driven by strong Q1 earnings, a successful...
EUR/USD has staged a clean rebound since August as soft U.S. data and dovish Fed expectations weighed on the dollar, while Eurozone resilience added support. July’s pullback was tied to U.S.–EU tariff developments, but momentum has since shifted, with RSI showing further room to the upside.
Key resistance at 1.1800 is now under pressure—holding above here opens...
USDJPY has been driven by shifting rate expectations through 2025. The pair sold off early in the year as markets priced Fed cuts, then recovered into summer on firm U.S. yields and a still-dovish BOJ. By August, momentum stalled again as yields dipped and the Fed hinted at easing.
Alongside the price chart, the U.S.–Japan 10Y yield spread offers important...
The S&P 500 has been climbing inside a rising wedge pattern, often seen as a sign that momentum is slowing down. At the same time, the RSI is showing lower highs, which hints at weakening strength behind the move.
Right now, the market feels like it’s waiting for a spark. That spark could come from the macro side — whether it’s rising bond yields making stocks...
Silver has rallied nearly 45% from the April low reaching $41/oz. Silver prices can now see a very long-term trend line connecting the 1980 and 2011 price highs , a 45-year trend line in the making. (red line)
If Silver were to rally that high, a bearish reaction would likely be felt.
However, Silver has a wall of Elliott wave relationships and market geometry...
Prior to the open of the US session tomorrow, the US non-farm payrolls report is released. How will these numbers fair with a new chief labor statistician in place? We'll find out tomorrow.
Meanwhile, SPX appears to be carving a wedge. In Elliott wave terms, it would be an ending diagonal pattern.
The rally this week appears to be wave 5 of the five-wave...
Gold continues its march higher.
There appears to be a triangle formation from April 2025 to July 2025 labeled A-B-C-D-E.
We know from our Elliott wave studies that triangles appear at certain places within the larger wave count. Triangles, in most situations, are the 2nd to last wave of the sequence.
In the case for gold, this implies the rally is the final...
EURUSD’s 5.5-month rally has stalled into a 2-month wedge consolidation - price has essentially painted itself into a corner.
With ATR at a 6-month low, volatility has compressed stalling further gains.
The consolidation has been brief compared to the sustained H1 2025 rally.
COT positioning reinforces the risk as speculators are the most net-long (red and...
