The Fed have pushed back on committing to another 25bp cut in December, maintaining a data-dependent stance. Traders will keep a close watch on next week’s ADP employment and ISM reports to gauge the likelihood of a Christmas cut from the Fed. I update my longer-term outlook for the US dollar index and review the FX majors to pick out the strong from the...
Gold is on track for its second week lower, its first such bearish sequence since June. But clues on price action and options positioning suggests upside risks for gold could prevail.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
The rebound in bitcoin I warned about last week has come to fruition. Yet despite its recovery above the 200-day EMA, I remain bearish on the higher timeframes. Looking at bitcoin futures, I explain why I think bears are lurking above and may be happy to fade into rallies towards 120k.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Australia's Q3 inflation figures have just dropped, and all surprised to the upside. Not only does this kill hopes of a cut next week — and likely for the rest of the year — but it also suggests the RBA may have already reached the terminal rate of this cutting cycle. I take a quick look at the figures, AUD/USD, and the ASX 200.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at...
While I believe Bitcoin still has further downside potential in the coming weeks, there’s also scope for a near-term bounce based on how futures traders are currently positioned.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
Gold's selloff on Tuesday was its fifth most bearish day's trade since 1970 - according to spot prices from LSEG. Clearly this is a significant event, especially when we consider it occurred at its record high. Let's take a closer look at technical levels.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
While my bias for the US dollar index remains bearish on the higher timeframes, a near-term bullish setup may have emerged. And that could see a pullback on EUR/USD and possible GBP/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
Using correlations with Wall Street indices, I outline why I think Bitcoin could be in for a bounce - though its rally could be limited before new lows are seen.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
With gold trading less than $120 from the $4,000 milestone, it would be rude not to test that key level. While market positioning suggests a move beyond it is possible, options traders appear to be bracing for higher volatility — or even a pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
USD/JPY traders have been treated (or perhaps burned) from two months of choppy trade, reversals and false breakouts. Yet price action clues and developments from the Fed and BOJ have allowed me to revisit my original thesis of a lower USD/JPY. I now have a break below 139.50 on my bingo card.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.
The rally on GBP/JPY has stalled around a major resistance level, which could give bears the upper hand over the near term. While AUD/JPY looks like it could go on to push higher, it also looks like it is in need of at least a minor pullback.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Looking at EUR/USD, GBP/USD charts and the relative positioning of futures traders on the euro and British pound, I outline why I think EUR/GBP could be headed for a breakout.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com (part of StoneX)
Momentum has finally come my way, which has seen bears reclaim control of the DAX and FTSE 100. And I suspect they'll retain control for a while longer. Today I update my levels and outlook for both markets.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com (part of StoneX).
Price action on several Canadian dollar charts suggests that we've entered a phase of strength from the bull camp. With Canadian CPI and a Bank of Canada meeting on tap, there is plenty of opportunity for volatility. Today I outline my bias for USD/CAD, GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com (part of StoneX)
I've been monitoring the FTSE and DAX for potential swing highs in recent days. And I suspect they may be close, if not seen, already.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com (StoneX)
Several yen pairs have stalled around resistance levels, despite solid rallies into them. But whether this could indicate the beginning of a deep pullback or eventual bullish breakout likely hinges on whether incoming data points towards a hard or soft landing in the US. Today I look out EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY and CAD/JPY crosses, and update analysis on...
Looking at market positioning, I outline why I think futures traders are anticipating a stronger Japanese yen in the coming weeks. Though as you'll see on the daily charts, momentum is currently against yen bulls with USD/JPY lifting from its range lows and both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY eyeing bullish breakouts.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
I'm seeing a lot of bullish calls for a gold breakout this week, and the contrarian within me suspects this could lead to disappointment over the near term. Even though my core bias is for gold to reach new highs eventually. Today I look at market exposure to gold futures from the commitment of traders report alongside key levels on gold's futures chart.
Matt...
