At the beginning of April, Japan's ex-FX diplomat Watanabe said that the BOJ were unlikely to intervene with USD/JPY below 155. Well now the pair trade less than 80 pips beneath this key level (and less than a day's trade by recent standards), 155 is certainly the level to watch today.
The strength of the bullish 1-hour trend makes it seem that USD/JPY has little...
Having fallen for six consecutive days, bearish momentum on EUR/USD is beginning to fade. Tuesday's low also held above the 1.06 level and 71.6% Fibonacci level whilst RSI (14) and (2) are in oversold levels on the daily chart.
The 4-hour chart shows bullish divergences on the RSIs, so the bias is to seek dips towards 1.06 for a long towards 1.0650 at a minimum....
Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A...
The euro's rally from the December low appears to be losing steam. Tuesday's high respected a resistance cluster including a 61.8% Fib level, high-volume node and trend resistance. A 2-bar bearish reversal (which includes an engulfing candle) only made a marginal high above Friday's high, and a bearish divergence has formed on the RSI.
With CPI looming, perhaps...
Market positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel.
Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend...
Bitcoin futures managed to fid support above $60k before snapping a 4-day losing streak. Bullish momentum increased from GETTEX:64K , and the move lower since appears to be corrective in nature against the strong rally from $64k.
A bullish outside / engulfing candle formed around the 50% retracement level and above Wednesday's daily TPO VAH time price...
GBP/USD makes for a really interesting short setup.
It saw a strong rally and eventual false break / mini blow off top above the December high, before a sharp reversal lower on Monday. It fell back beneath the December high, and a rising wedge (bearish reversal during a down move) stalled at the 50% retracement level, just beneath the December high.
- The wedge...
At the end of January we highlighted the potential for USD/CAD to retrace back to its 50% level and print a swing low. It worked out well - although the 1.36 target did not arrive as soon as hoped. Still, it reached that key level on Wednesday - and it is a level that remains of interest.
Not only did prices fail to close above the 1.36 handle and weekly R2...
We have a huge risk event in the coming hours; US PCE inflation. Should it come in softer than expected, risk is likely to pick up as this is how it has behaved pretty much every time inflation has come in soft. Conversely, a hot inflation report could dent risk - but we suspect not to such a large degree.
Fed members have been very vocal about maintaining...
USD/JPY fell for five consecutive days by Monday's close, which was its worst 5-day run in three months. Yet two daily closed beneath the lower Keltner band and RSI (2) reaching oversold indicated that mean reversion higher was due.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data confirmed our suspicions, and a bullish day broke the 5-day bearish sequence and confirmed a...
Crude oil has been grinding higher since the December low, but after a 4-week period of choppy trade momentum has turned higher.
Whilst $80 has been a tough level to crack in recent week, we suspect a breakout is now on the cards
- 200-day MA has provided dynamic support
- Falling wedge into 200-day MA
- Bullish range expansion out of the falling wedge
- RSI...
A potential swing trade short has presented itself on the daily chart.
DXY failed to closed above 103 and formed an inverted hammer on the daily chart, and its upper wick met resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Daily trading volumes also declined whilst prices rose gradually, against the prior (and more aggressive) leg lower. This suggest the -day rise is...
The 1-hout chart shows that prices broken above Wednesdays high before retracing back into a support cluster, which includes the 10-day EMA and daily pivot point. Momentum looks like it wants to turn higher from here, although traders should always be on guard for the 'false move' around the UK/European opens before the 'real move' gets underway. Given the bullish...
The daily chart shows a nice bullish trend on the daily chart. A minor retracement has occurred at the cycle highs, although Thursday's bullish hammer found support at the 100-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci level and prior swing high.
RSI (2) is confirming the trend and RSI (14) is above 50 to show bullish momentum of the past three weeks.
Given the bullish trend...
The Aussie rose for a seventh day, which is statistically quite rate. That stat alone suggests the bullish sequence is in need of a break, and the technical might just agree.
A wide bearish pinbar formed around the 100 and 200-day EMAs whilst RSI(2) was overbought. From here, bears could seek to fade into retracements within Thursday's pinbar and initially...
A downtrend has formed on USD/CNH since it failed to retest the 2022 high in September. Since then, a lower high, aggressive selloff and a bearish continuation pattern (rising wedge) has formed on the daily chart. The rising wedge projects a downside target towards the cycle lows ~7.1.
If the yuan continues to depreciated (lower USD/CNH), it could prompt other...
A double top formed this month around a 50% retracement level on the daily charts ahead of its latest pullback. And it is interesting to note that the market tends to react around the 50% level.
The double top could actually be part of a 3-wave retracement, and that retracement could be nearing completion.
We saw a strong rally into the January high, hence the...
Momentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term).
A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for...
