Australia's monthly headline inflation metrics were all above expectations. While the basing effect and likely one-off electricity costs are a factor, it doesn't explain everything. I look at some of the CPI report's internals and outline what I think this means for AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
If real money exposure to the futures market is any guide, the VIX may be at or near a cycle low — implying that higher volatility could be on the horizon for Wall Street. Should a significant catalyst emerge, it could ripple through risk appetite across multiple asset classes.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index.
It is without a doubt that Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is THE event of the week, and possibly the biggest of the month and quarter. That brings the potential for safe-haven flows into gold as we veer towards this key event. I take a look at gold futures market exposure and key levels for gold futures.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City...
Today's 25b bp cut was expected, but the RBNZ have revised their forecasts and lowered their expected terminal rate. I take a look at the important points from the statement, how markets reacted, and why futures market positioning could point to further downside for the New Zealand Dollar.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at Forex.com and City Index
Asset managers have been increasing their net-short exposure against the Canadian dollar in recent weeks. And with recent inflation data cooling bets of multiple Fed cuts and the US dollar regaining strength, USD/CAD could be looking for a move to 1.39 or 1.40.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
A notable boost to Japanese yen strength since my last yen video has seen momentum turn in my favour for USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Today is a quick update to the levels.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) finally delivered the 25bp cut I anticipated in July. I take a quick look at how they have updated the economic forecasts that matter, and how Aussie markets reacted.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Some interesting setups are forming on the daily charts of USD/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY. Keep in mind that USD/JPY will be more sensitive to the incoming US inflation report, which leaves the potential for some divergences to form among the Japanese yen pairs. Overall, my bias is for them to move lower in due course.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index...
It has been a week since the US dollar plunged following a weak NFP report. Given it has consolidated within a tight range near last week's low, alongside price action clues on EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF, I suspect the dollar could bounce before its losses resume.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBP/JPY is trying to notch its third bullish day heading into today's Bank of England (BOE) meeting. But with a cut expected and the potential for a dovish tone, I suspect its upside could be limited. Besides, the technical clues on the daily and weekly chart suggest we may have seen a major top in July.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The yen is broadly weaker, which is even allowing a weaker Australian dollar to rise. And with a decent bullish trend on the daily chart, I am now seeking dips within a recent consolidation range in anticipation of a move to 99 or even 100.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
The RBA defied expectations of a cut in July, despite soft trimmed mean inflation figures in the monthly CPI report. The quarterly figures have now dropped, which I suspect leaves little wriggle room to hold at 2.85% in August. I 6ake a look at the quarterly and monthly inflation prints that matter, then wrap up on AUD/USD.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City...
Seasonality can be a useful tool if used wisely (and in context) with current sentiment and news flows. Seasonality really is a backwards looking indicator that can easily be overpowered by key macro drivers. But its strength comes in to play when seasonality aligns with the macro landscape.
With that in mind, I share my seasonality matrix for indices, metals...
I have long said that the RBA could cut in July, and today's CPI figures all but confirm one is on tap. But with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY are rising, will bears get their say?
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
With the conclusion of the FOMC meeting just hours away, I wanted to move away from the US dollar and look at some crosses. Here are some interesting setups on yen pairs to keep in mind.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Oil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade.
It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide...
Crude oil has enjoyed a decent rally in recent weeks thanks to improved sentiment and OPEC+ scaling back production. Yet momentum turned against bulls on Tuesday, despite positive trade talks between the US and China. Today I discuss whether this could be a turning point for oil, or simply a bump in the road.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
I don't recall the last bullish headline I saw for the US dollar, bearish sentiment may be stretched, and I'm seeing plenty of clues across the US dollar index and all FX majors that we could at least be looking at a minor bounce. Whether it can turn into a larger short-covering rally is likely down to Trump's trade deals. Either way, I'm, on guard for an...
