I see a common connection when looking across Wall Street futures, ASX 200 and the Nikkei. They're all retracing higher after a large drop and grinding their way towards resistance levels. And that could appeal to bearish swing traders.
ASX 200 futures (SPI) are within their 8th day higher. And as they have only recouped around 2/3rds of the drop rom the fall...
US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing.
The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand...
Two key inflation reports for the US and a potentially live RBNZ meeting over the next 24 hours has put EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD onto my radar. And in each case, these markets have risen to interesting levels which hint at a weaker US dollar over the near-term. Part of this may be because traders are front-running weaker US inflation data.
If the RBNZ treat...
Over the past 5 days, USD/CAD has retraced -1.7%. And each day saw a loss of bearish momentum. A small bullish engulfing candle formed on Monday to snap the 5-day losing streak, and the fact it formed around the 50-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci level make it the more appealing for a bullish swing trade.
Bulls could target just below the 1.38 handle, with a stop...
Hawkish comments from RBA’s governor have provided a tailwind for AUD/USD today, after she said that the central bank would not hesitate to hike rates if needed. This is all very well, but with the Fed in easing mode and the RBNZ potentially cutting next week, the probability of an RBA hike seems low. But her words have allowed the Aussie to have another crack at...
The resurgence of the yen took a breather on Thursday, allowing USD/JPY to form a bullish pinbar around key support levels, including the 200-day EMA, 152 handle and 2022 MOF intervention level. Given the pair has already retraced 16% since the July high, a technical bounce seems plausible.
A bullish divergence formed on the 1-hour chart ahead of thew strong...
Stock markets took quite the beating on Monday on fears of a US recession, and speculation that the Fed may be forced to cut rates as soon as next week. A stronger-than-expected ISM services report slowed the bleeding before Wall Street indices recouped some of their pre-session losses. Nikkei futures have since risen 10% from Monday's low, which could bode well...
The sharp fall from its record high remains the dominant feature on the daily ASX 200 futures chart. Whilst this is likely to suppress appetite for risk for some time, Tuesday's bullish hammer suggests bears are in need of a break.
The false break of the April low has been followed by a higher low and higher high on the 1-hour chart. Prices are now trying to form...
Gold prices look set to bounce over the near-term after they closed lower for a fourth consecutive day. Monday's aggressive selloff held above $2400, and a late recovery saw half of the day's losses handed back - to close the day with a lower wick. Tuesday's range held above Monday's low and mostly traded within Monday's lower wick, which suggest liquidity gaps...
By Monday's low, USD/JPY had fallen -12.5% from its July high and the daily RSI (14) had reached its most oversold level since 1996. And with a bullish inside day on Tuesday with a potential bull flag forming on the intraday timeframe, dups look good over the near-term for bulls. Whether it can truly capitalise on any decent rally depends on appetite for risk in...
This time tomorrow we will finally know the outcome of the BOJ and FOMC meetings. Options traders clearly have it on their radar, as the 1-day implied volatility band has expanded to nearly 4x its usual range (defined with a 20-day average).
But with bets of a hike already accompanied with a much weaker yen, traders may also want to be on guard for the potential...
We'll admit that the Hang Seng does not have the most bullish of structures among APAC indices, but it continues to defy bears with a break of key support. And if sentiment for global indices picks up as we suspect, it could pave the way for another cheeky long for Hang Seng bulls.
The index has seen three failed attempts to break beneath 17500 since late June....
We take a multi timeframe approach for today's gold analysis video. Taking into account COT data from the weekly chart, support levels on the daily and four-hour charts, we outline our rationale as to why gold could hit new lows after an expected bounce.
MS.
Nikkei futures found some stability on Monday around the May high, before going on to snap a 6-day losing streak. The daily RSI (2) was oversold to further suggest mean reversion could be due. And with Wall Street showing signs of stability ahead of tech earnings, we suspect a bounce could be due.
The 1-hour chart shows the 14-period RSI spent some time in...
The ASX 200 futures contract (SPI 200) snapped a 3-day losing streak overnight, and with Wall Street trying to shed last week's losses and the Nikkei and Hang Seng finding support, we suspect a bounce could be due for the ASX today.
The daily chart found support at the 20-day EMA and monthly R1 pivot and closed back above the May high. It is now within 1-2 day's...
AUD/JPY fell nearly -4.5% since the MTD high to today’s low. And as AU employment has raised the takes for another RBA hike – even if only very slightly – we suspect further upside over the near term. Besides, assuming the MOF did intervene on the yen on Wednesday, it seems unlikely to be followed up with more action today. And that could allow the yen to drift...
The dollar index formed a small bullish candle on Monday, above the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages. Given the daily volume was relatively high compared with the candle, it could suggest a build up of buying pressure and potential cycle low. The daily RSI (2) was also oversold on Friday.
A bullish RSI divergence formed on the 4-hour RSI, and a...
The Aussie fell for a second day and mostly erased gains made from the prior six. Whilst it found support at the May high, the shift in momentum at 68c suggests there could be some further downside potential, even if just to 67c or the breakout level around 0.6690. The daily RSI (2) is not yet oversold either.
A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart....
