Market analysis from FOREX.com
The FTSE benefitted from the recent rotation out of tech into value stocks, of which the FTSE has plenty, and which are undervalued. Technically, the FTSE has hit resistance, which could slow gains for now. The FTSE broke out of a short-term consolidation pattern, breaking higher to fresh record highs around 9300, with the rising trendline resistance dating back...
The significant dovish shift from the RBNZ at its August meeting has left the Kiwi dollar on the backfoot, closing Wednesday beneath former support at .5850 and the key 200DMA. With Fed rate-cut pricing already so rich heading into Jackson Hole, only an explicit dovish shift from chair Jerome Powell may be enough to prevent a USD rally. As such, a short NZD/USD...
GBP/JPY falls to a fresh weekly low (197.86) following the failed attempts to push/close above the 199.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to 200.50 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) zone. Failure to hold above the 195.70 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 196.60 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the monthly low (195.04), with the next area of interest...
NZD/USD clears the May low (0.5847) as it tumbles to a fresh monthly low (0.5815), and a close below 0.5830 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) may push the exchange rate toward the 0.5740 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.5760 (100% Fibonacci extension) region. A move/close below 0.5700 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) opens up the yearly low (0.5486), but NZD/USD may...
On the daily chart, Nasdaq’s RSI has pulled back to the 50 neutral zone, providing potential support for the recent correction. Price action is holding above the 23,200-support, while the 4-hour RSI is rebounding from oversold conditions. If 23,200 continues to hold, Nasdaq may recover to test 23,500, 23,700, and potentially 24,100. A confirmed move above these...
FTSE 100 (+0.5%) hits a new record high above 9230, boosted by consumer staples. The UK index reversed earlier losses after hotter UK CPI data saw traders trim bets over further BoE rate cuts. Despite that, bond yields have fallen, and the pound has come off earlier highs. The trend for the FTSE 100 remains bullish obviously with the index at records. Stating...
USDCAD is in a bullish breakout mode, holding firmly above 1.37 and breaking out from a one-month consolidation range. It is now testing the 1.3880 resistance. A clean hold above this level could confirm a breakout toward the 1.40 target — the projected completion of the current pattern. The 3-day RSI is trending above the neutral 50 level, reinforcing dollar...
Gold has now extended its four-session losing streak, with prices dropping more than 1.5% in the short term. So far, bearish pressure remains active, as gold has lost some of its appeal as a safe-haven asset, mainly due to easing global geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that central banks may begin considering rate cuts. These developments have...
Silver finds itself resting on the key 50DMA, a level traders have used as a launchpad for bullish moves on the last two occasions of testing. However, with unconvincing price action and momentum indicators turning neutral, it may be a case of third time lucky for bears on this occasion. Silver has already broken beneath the February 2012 high of $37.46, which...
As we move towards the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later this week USD/CAD has set up as one of the cleaner pairs for USD-strength, and that's been a building backdrop for much of the past month and a half. Even as USD set a fresh three-year low on day one of Q3, USD/CAD held a higher-low, forming a bullish trendline. That trendline was in-play a couple...
AUD/USD gives back the advance from the start of the week to approach the monthly low (94.91), and a move/close below the 95.10 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 95.20 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the July low (93.97). Next area of interest comes in around 92.80 (50% Fibonacci extension) to 93.30 (23.6% Fibonacci extension), but the...
With copper prices easing over the last few days, it has now reached a key short-term support area in the shaded region. Here a bullish trend line meets prior support/resistance range. Can we see a bounce here today? Or are we inside a bear flag pattern? Either way, we will soon find out, and then one can trade copper accordingly. We prefer the long side give a...
Canada publishes its July inflation numbers shortly. The market’s looking for 0.3% MoM on the headline CPI. Median measure of CPI is expected to hold around 3.1% y/y with trimmed CPI seen steady at 3.0%. Numbers lower than those would likely support the idea that the Bank of Canada will resume cutting before long, especially because growth risks are piling up....
China’s A50 index appears to be on a collision course with the swing high set in December last year, motoring higher like so many other Chinese indices. If we see a clean break of the level, there’s very little technically standing in the way of a potential move back towards the blow-off highs set in October 2024. 14,409 is the level in question, with the current...
EUR/JPY seems to be bouncing back ahead of the monthly low (169.82) as it holds above the 170.70 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) to 170.90 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region, with a breach of the monthly high (173.02) bringing the July high (173.90) on the radar. Next area of interest comes in around the 2024 high (175.43), but lack of momentum to hold above the...
NZD/USD may face headwinds later this week as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to implement a 25bp rate-cut, and failure to hold/close above the 0.5920 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may lead to a test of the monthly low (0.5857). A breach of the May low (0.5847) brings 0.5830 (38.2% Fibonacci...
USD/CHF seems to be coiling in a narrow range after slipping to a fresh monthly low (0.8022) during the previous week, but the exchange rate may attempt to retrace the decline from the start of August as it continues to close above the 0.8030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8080 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) zone. A breach of the monthly high (0.8172) may push...
GBP/JPY is now working on its fifth day of resistance at the 200.00 handle. This sets up a big test ahead of Jackson Hole as the pair retains a macro drive that has tie to US rate cut expectations. The major pairs of GBP/USD and USD/JPY similarly remain of interest, and I still favor GBP/USD for USD-weakness scenarios. The recent ordeal around 200.00 illustrates...